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火火兔爸
07-02 07:55
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential
火火兔爸
07-02 07:55
很好的分析
Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential
火火兔爸
07-01 23:41
$英伟达(NVDA)$
跑赢科技股
火火兔爸
07-01 21:50
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
获利跑路lo喽,继续加富国银行
火火兔爸
07-01 20:20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
必须看好,中国销量在增长
火火兔爸
07-01 19:13
$英伟达(NVDA)$
买富国银行
火火兔爸
07-01 18:02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天进特斯拉支持下fsd
火火兔爸
06-29
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
Wells Fargo says AI is moving beyond tech and spotlights opportunities elsewhere
火火兔爸
06-29
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@芝士虎:美联储短期放鹰,为什么是配置长债的好时机?
火火兔爸
06-29
$富国银行(WFC)$
,美国最大的几家银行顺利通过了美联储的年度压力测试,这不仅为它们提高股东分红铺平了道路,同时也显示了银行业在面临潜在经济衰退时的韧性。尽管目前行业正期待一项更为严格的资本规则提案的弱化版本,但压力测试的结果无疑为银行的稳健性提供了有力证明。 在周三发布的声明中,美联储指出,即便在经济衰退期间,参与测试的每家银行的资本水平都超过了最低要求。尽管这些银行预计会遭受近6,850亿美元的损失,导致资本下降幅度超过去年,但这一结果仍在压力测试的预期范围内。 自2008年金
火火兔爸
06-29
$富国银行(WFC)$
pce显示美国经济正在降温,华尔街用脚投票倒逼美联储降息 美联储头铁大概率继续观察两个月,目前资金避险优选高股息富国银行。
火火兔爸
06-29
$富国银行(WFC)$
富国我来了
火火兔爸
06-27
Replying to
@五个
:微软增长速度一般//
@五个
:MSFT>亚麻>GOOGLE>Meta
火火兔爸
06-27
已移仓亚马逊
火火兔爸
06-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
估值中轴在115到120刀
火火兔爸
06-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
挺搞笑的,只拼数量不讲能耗,逗人玩呢[开心] 【数量是地表最强超算的 30 倍,AMD 对抗英伟达“杀手锏”:120 万片 GPU 组成 AI 集群】全球最强超级计算机所配备的 GPU 数量不到 5 万片,而 AMD 公司为了增强和英伟达的竞争力,目标推出支持 120 万片 GPU 的数据中心 AI 集群。详情点击:http://t.cn/A6QXBBvy
火火兔爸
06-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
没有新的刺激因素,上下小幅波动横盘一个月
火火兔爸
06-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
移了半仓去亚马逊,达子暂时休息,两头压
火火兔爸
06-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
夏季虽然是一般公司的淡季,但是英伟达不一样,依然在旺季。
火火兔爸
06-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
知道我没吃饱又来送筹码
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03:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448273941","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely t","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.</li><li>CRE credit is likely to get worse from here, but Wells Fargo is already well-reserved and this is likely to be a multiyear process.</li><li>Wells Fargo continues to make progress on resolving outstanding regulatory and compliance issues, and the removal of the asset cap should unlock significant growth opportunities.</li><li>Long-term core earnings growth in the neighborhood of 4% can support a fair value in the $60's, as can ROTCE-driven P/TBV and P/E.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"2643px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3523px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>wdstock</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Current operating conditions are still not exactly easy for <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (<span>NYSE:WFC</span>), even excluding the self-inflicted headwinds of past management mistakes. An asset-sensitive bank, higher-for longer rates haven’t been all that bad for this bank. Wells Fargo’s strong core<span> deposit franchise has allowed it to maintain a better-than-average deposit beta that has helped offset some weak lending performances that have, at least in part, been driven by the compromises needed to comply with the ongoing asset cap.</span></p> <p>Wells Fargo shares are up more than 40% since my last update, performing not only the large bank group in general, but also close rivals like <strong>Bank of America</strong> (BAC) and <strong>JPMorgan</strong> (JPM). While I don’t see the same upside as before, I do think there is underappreciated leverage here on the other side of its<span> regulatory remediation process, including opportunities in lending share growth, deposit share growth, trading growth, and middle market growth.</span></p> <h2><strong>Not A Lot Is Likely To Change In The Very Short Term</strong></h2> <p>Two of the last three quarters since my last update on Wells Fargo have seen modest pre-provision beats, and that’s basically what I’m expecting again this time around. Loan growth has been weak for large banks in general (basically flat in the second quarter), and I expect Wells Fargo to continue to underperform here. I’m also not that confident that rates will offer much leverage, and I see a modest risk of underperformance on net interest margin.</p> <p>Where I do see the most potential for upside is in the fee income items. Investment advisory fees, trading revenue, and card fees have all been growing nicely, and I believe these can offer some upside again in Q2’24. I do see some risk to costs, though, as the bank continues to spend on remediation projects and invest in areas like capital markets growth.</p> <p>I also do not expect any dramatic updates on the credit side. I’d be surprised if provisions weren’t meaningfully higher on a sequential basis, and likewise for net charge-offs. Management has been pretty active in reserving against its CRE office book (about 3% of loans, and around 11% reserved last quarter), and I don’t see conditions getting any better in major markets like San Francisco.</p> <p>Management guided to a high single-digit year-over-year decline for net interest income in 2024 with the prior quarter, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much. It’s basically a “steady as she goes” situation, with most of the deviation in Q2’24 earnings likely to come from fee income, opex, and provisioning.</p> <h2><strong>Meaningful Post-Cap Opportunities</strong></h2> <p>I continue to be very interested in the leverage Wells Fargo could unlock once it exits this ongoing period of consent decrees and an asset cap that has meaningfully limited management’s options to grow the business over the last several years.</p> <p>As a reminder, the company saw the OCC terminate a consent order in mid-February of this year, but eight still remain (three from the Fed, three from the OCC, and two from the CFPB). I don’t believe all of these consent orders will need to be ended before the asset cap could be removed, but I don’t expect any move on the asset cap until after the election this year, and the outcome of that election could well have some bearing on the regulatory/asset cap issue.</p> <p>Eventually, though, the asset cap will be lifted, and Wells Fargo will be in a very different position where earnings growth opportunities are concerned.</p> <p>First, while Wells Fargo is still a very small player in trading next to the likes of Bank of America, <strong>Citigroup</strong> (C), and JPMorgan (about one-quarter the revenue of the first two and 20% of the third), it has been growing the business nicely for some time now. I think it’s important to note that the asset cap has limited the capital that management can direct toward trading, and management has been syndicating loans to free up capital to reinvest here. Once the cap goes away, this could be an area of meaningful and profitable revenue growth, albeit with significant quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year volatility (it’s just the nature of trading).</p> <p>I also see growth opportunities from regaining share in its core lending markets. Wells Fargo has been meaningfully undergrowing its rivals across both commercial and consumer lending, as the company has been restrained on marketing new products and devoting capital to lending growth. With a still-strong deposit base and cost advantages in funding, I believe Wells Fargo will look to regain that share, and I believe the bank could be particularly effective in middle-market lending in the second half of this decade.</p> <p>Last and not least on the growth side, Wells Fargo is still relatively early in its efforts to expand its card lending. It’s still a small part of overall lending relative to Bank of America and JPMorgan (Citi is so reliant on card lending that it’s not a fair comp), but it’s growing and the bank’s recent offerings have proven quite competitive, leading to two straight quarters now where only Wells Fargo and JPMorgan delivered double-digit growth in their card loans.</p> <p>Also significant, but not a revenue growth driver, is the opportunity for cost leverage as regulatory remediation efforts wind down. Between restrictions on growing the business (limiting leverage) and spending specifically to resolve outstanding regulatory/compliance issues, I believe there are at least a couple of points of operating leverage that can be unlocked by exiting the asset cap era, although it’s not obvious to me if Wells Fargo will immediately look to maximize leverage or will look to up its IT investments to support future growth.</p> <h2><strong>The Outlook</strong></h2> <p>The Fed’s recent stress test saw Wells Fargo with one of the highest capital requirement increases (a 90bps increase in the stress capital buffer to 3.8%), due in part to weaker non-interest income. I don’t see an ongoing problem here, though I do suppose this could limit some capital returns in the near term. I do note, though, that the bank is well-positioned for new liquidity rules and is in good shape for new capital requirements, particularly if recent rumors prove accurate and the actual capital increase for large banks is on the order of 5% (versus the initial proposal of 16%).</p> <p>Wells Fargo came in about 7% ahead of my prior estimates for FY’23 (in terms of core earnings), and while I haven’t rolled all of that into new estimates, my FY’24 core earnings estimate is about 6% higher (the increases are more modest for FY’25/26). Using 2023 as the new starting point, I’m looking for around 3% growth over the next five years and about 50bp higher (4%) for the next 10 years.</p> <p>Discounting those core earnings back, I believe Wells Fargo is undervalued below the mid-$60’s, and that’s still with an elevated discount rate over the next few years to reflect ongoing regulatory issues. Other valuation approaches (an ROTCE-driven P/TBV and 12-month P/E) give me similar values in the low-to-mid-$60’s.</p> <p>To give some sense of what lifting the asset cap could do for valuation, Wells Fargo management is targeting a mid-teens ROTCE. They can’t get there with the asset cap in place, but I think it’s a valid target once the regulatory issues are resolved. If I valued Wells Fargo today on a 15% ROTCE, the fair value would increase to a little over $70, and importantly that’s still using today’s TBVPS (not giving the company credit for improved growth opportunities).</p> <h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2> <p>I wrote about PNC lately and the two banks offer roughly similar upside today, and while it’s easy to immediately conclude that they’re very different banks (PNC has a reputation for being conservatively-run and reliable), both have explicitly targeted growth in the coming years; Wells Fargo more from unleashing pent-up capabilities and PNC more from organic expansion into new markets.</p> <div></div> <p>In any case, I think there’s still an argument for owning Wells Fargo. There are near-term economic and credit risks, and mid-term risks around the regulatory situation, but sooner or later, Wells Fargo will be free to operate without the asset cap limitations. Once that happens, I believe the market may yet be surprised at the growth and returns the bank can produce, and the shares don’t fully reflect that potential.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-02 03:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","WFC":"富国银行","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","BAC":"美国银行","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2448273941","content_text":"Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely to get worse from here, but Wells Fargo is already well-reserved and this is likely to be a multiyear process.Wells Fargo continues to make progress on resolving outstanding regulatory and compliance issues, and the removal of the asset cap should unlock significant growth opportunities.Long-term core earnings growth in the neighborhood of 4% can support a fair value in the $60's, as can ROTCE-driven P/TBV and P/E. wdstock Current operating conditions are still not exactly easy for Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), even excluding the self-inflicted headwinds of past management mistakes. An asset-sensitive bank, higher-for longer rates haven’t been all that bad for this bank. Wells Fargo’s strong core deposit franchise has allowed it to maintain a better-than-average deposit beta that has helped offset some weak lending performances that have, at least in part, been driven by the compromises needed to comply with the ongoing asset cap. Wells Fargo shares are up more than 40% since my last update, performing not only the large bank group in general, but also close rivals like Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM). While I don’t see the same upside as before, I do think there is underappreciated leverage here on the other side of its regulatory remediation process, including opportunities in lending share growth, deposit share growth, trading growth, and middle market growth. Not A Lot Is Likely To Change In The Very Short Term Two of the last three quarters since my last update on Wells Fargo have seen modest pre-provision beats, and that’s basically what I’m expecting again this time around. Loan growth has been weak for large banks in general (basically flat in the second quarter), and I expect Wells Fargo to continue to underperform here. I’m also not that confident that rates will offer much leverage, and I see a modest risk of underperformance on net interest margin. Where I do see the most potential for upside is in the fee income items. Investment advisory fees, trading revenue, and card fees have all been growing nicely, and I believe these can offer some upside again in Q2’24. I do see some risk to costs, though, as the bank continues to spend on remediation projects and invest in areas like capital markets growth. I also do not expect any dramatic updates on the credit side. I’d be surprised if provisions weren’t meaningfully higher on a sequential basis, and likewise for net charge-offs. Management has been pretty active in reserving against its CRE office book (about 3% of loans, and around 11% reserved last quarter), and I don’t see conditions getting any better in major markets like San Francisco. Management guided to a high single-digit year-over-year decline for net interest income in 2024 with the prior quarter, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much. It’s basically a “steady as she goes” situation, with most of the deviation in Q2’24 earnings likely to come from fee income, opex, and provisioning. Meaningful Post-Cap Opportunities I continue to be very interested in the leverage Wells Fargo could unlock once it exits this ongoing period of consent decrees and an asset cap that has meaningfully limited management’s options to grow the business over the last several years. As a reminder, the company saw the OCC terminate a consent order in mid-February of this year, but eight still remain (three from the Fed, three from the OCC, and two from the CFPB). I don’t believe all of these consent orders will need to be ended before the asset cap could be removed, but I don’t expect any move on the asset cap until after the election this year, and the outcome of that election could well have some bearing on the regulatory/asset cap issue. Eventually, though, the asset cap will be lifted, and Wells Fargo will be in a very different position where earnings growth opportunities are concerned. First, while Wells Fargo is still a very small player in trading next to the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup (C), and JPMorgan (about one-quarter the revenue of the first two and 20% of the third), it has been growing the business nicely for some time now. I think it’s important to note that the asset cap has limited the capital that management can direct toward trading, and management has been syndicating loans to free up capital to reinvest here. Once the cap goes away, this could be an area of meaningful and profitable revenue growth, albeit with significant quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year volatility (it’s just the nature of trading). I also see growth opportunities from regaining share in its core lending markets. Wells Fargo has been meaningfully undergrowing its rivals across both commercial and consumer lending, as the company has been restrained on marketing new products and devoting capital to lending growth. With a still-strong deposit base and cost advantages in funding, I believe Wells Fargo will look to regain that share, and I believe the bank could be particularly effective in middle-market lending in the second half of this decade. Last and not least on the growth side, Wells Fargo is still relatively early in its efforts to expand its card lending. It’s still a small part of overall lending relative to Bank of America and JPMorgan (Citi is so reliant on card lending that it’s not a fair comp), but it’s growing and the bank’s recent offerings have proven quite competitive, leading to two straight quarters now where only Wells Fargo and JPMorgan delivered double-digit growth in their card loans. Also significant, but not a revenue growth driver, is the opportunity for cost leverage as regulatory remediation efforts wind down. Between restrictions on growing the business (limiting leverage) and spending specifically to resolve outstanding regulatory/compliance issues, I believe there are at least a couple of points of operating leverage that can be unlocked by exiting the asset cap era, although it’s not obvious to me if Wells Fargo will immediately look to maximize leverage or will look to up its IT investments to support future growth. The Outlook The Fed’s recent stress test saw Wells Fargo with one of the highest capital requirement increases (a 90bps increase in the stress capital buffer to 3.8%), due in part to weaker non-interest income. I don’t see an ongoing problem here, though I do suppose this could limit some capital returns in the near term. I do note, though, that the bank is well-positioned for new liquidity rules and is in good shape for new capital requirements, particularly if recent rumors prove accurate and the actual capital increase for large banks is on the order of 5% (versus the initial proposal of 16%). Wells Fargo came in about 7% ahead of my prior estimates for FY’23 (in terms of core earnings), and while I haven’t rolled all of that into new estimates, my FY’24 core earnings estimate is about 6% higher (the increases are more modest for FY’25/26). Using 2023 as the new starting point, I’m looking for around 3% growth over the next five years and about 50bp higher (4%) for the next 10 years. Discounting those core earnings back, I believe Wells Fargo is undervalued below the mid-$60’s, and that’s still with an elevated discount rate over the next few years to reflect ongoing regulatory issues. Other valuation approaches (an ROTCE-driven P/TBV and 12-month P/E) give me similar values in the low-to-mid-$60’s. To give some sense of what lifting the asset cap could do for valuation, Wells Fargo management is targeting a mid-teens ROTCE. They can’t get there with the asset cap in place, but I think it’s a valid target once the regulatory issues are resolved. If I valued Wells Fargo today on a 15% ROTCE, the fair value would increase to a little over $70, and importantly that’s still using today’s TBVPS (not giving the company credit for improved growth opportunities). The Bottom Line I wrote about PNC lately and the two banks offer roughly similar upside today, and while it’s easy to immediately conclude that they’re very different banks (PNC has a reputation for being conservatively-run and reliable), both have explicitly targeted growth in the coming years; Wells Fargo more from unleashing pent-up capabilities and PNC more from organic expansion into new markets. In any case, I think there’s still an argument for owning Wells Fargo. There are near-term economic and credit risks, and mid-term risks around the regulatory situation, but sooner or later, Wells Fargo will be free to operate without the asset cap limitations. Once that happens, I believe the market may yet be surprised at the growth and returns the bank can produce, and the shares don’t fully reflect that potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323047399370792,"gmtCreate":1719878129821,"gmtModify":1719878131636,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好的分析","listText":"很好的分析","text":"很好的分析","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323047399370792","repostId":"2448273941","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2448273941","pubTimestamp":1719860465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2448273941?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-02 03:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448273941","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely t","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.</li><li>CRE credit is likely to get worse from here, but Wells Fargo is already well-reserved and this is likely to be a multiyear process.</li><li>Wells Fargo continues to make progress on resolving outstanding regulatory and compliance issues, and the removal of the asset cap should unlock significant growth opportunities.</li><li>Long-term core earnings growth in the neighborhood of 4% can support a fair value in the $60's, as can ROTCE-driven P/TBV and P/E.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"2643px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3523px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>wdstock</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Current operating conditions are still not exactly easy for <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (<span>NYSE:WFC</span>), even excluding the self-inflicted headwinds of past management mistakes. An asset-sensitive bank, higher-for longer rates haven’t been all that bad for this bank. Wells Fargo’s strong core<span> deposit franchise has allowed it to maintain a better-than-average deposit beta that has helped offset some weak lending performances that have, at least in part, been driven by the compromises needed to comply with the ongoing asset cap.</span></p> <p>Wells Fargo shares are up more than 40% since my last update, performing not only the large bank group in general, but also close rivals like <strong>Bank of America</strong> (BAC) and <strong>JPMorgan</strong> (JPM). While I don’t see the same upside as before, I do think there is underappreciated leverage here on the other side of its<span> regulatory remediation process, including opportunities in lending share growth, deposit share growth, trading growth, and middle market growth.</span></p> <h2><strong>Not A Lot Is Likely To Change In The Very Short Term</strong></h2> <p>Two of the last three quarters since my last update on Wells Fargo have seen modest pre-provision beats, and that’s basically what I’m expecting again this time around. Loan growth has been weak for large banks in general (basically flat in the second quarter), and I expect Wells Fargo to continue to underperform here. I’m also not that confident that rates will offer much leverage, and I see a modest risk of underperformance on net interest margin.</p> <p>Where I do see the most potential for upside is in the fee income items. Investment advisory fees, trading revenue, and card fees have all been growing nicely, and I believe these can offer some upside again in Q2’24. I do see some risk to costs, though, as the bank continues to spend on remediation projects and invest in areas like capital markets growth.</p> <p>I also do not expect any dramatic updates on the credit side. I’d be surprised if provisions weren’t meaningfully higher on a sequential basis, and likewise for net charge-offs. Management has been pretty active in reserving against its CRE office book (about 3% of loans, and around 11% reserved last quarter), and I don’t see conditions getting any better in major markets like San Francisco.</p> <p>Management guided to a high single-digit year-over-year decline for net interest income in 2024 with the prior quarter, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much. It’s basically a “steady as she goes” situation, with most of the deviation in Q2’24 earnings likely to come from fee income, opex, and provisioning.</p> <h2><strong>Meaningful Post-Cap Opportunities</strong></h2> <p>I continue to be very interested in the leverage Wells Fargo could unlock once it exits this ongoing period of consent decrees and an asset cap that has meaningfully limited management’s options to grow the business over the last several years.</p> <p>As a reminder, the company saw the OCC terminate a consent order in mid-February of this year, but eight still remain (three from the Fed, three from the OCC, and two from the CFPB). I don’t believe all of these consent orders will need to be ended before the asset cap could be removed, but I don’t expect any move on the asset cap until after the election this year, and the outcome of that election could well have some bearing on the regulatory/asset cap issue.</p> <p>Eventually, though, the asset cap will be lifted, and Wells Fargo will be in a very different position where earnings growth opportunities are concerned.</p> <p>First, while Wells Fargo is still a very small player in trading next to the likes of Bank of America, <strong>Citigroup</strong> (C), and JPMorgan (about one-quarter the revenue of the first two and 20% of the third), it has been growing the business nicely for some time now. I think it’s important to note that the asset cap has limited the capital that management can direct toward trading, and management has been syndicating loans to free up capital to reinvest here. Once the cap goes away, this could be an area of meaningful and profitable revenue growth, albeit with significant quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year volatility (it’s just the nature of trading).</p> <p>I also see growth opportunities from regaining share in its core lending markets. Wells Fargo has been meaningfully undergrowing its rivals across both commercial and consumer lending, as the company has been restrained on marketing new products and devoting capital to lending growth. With a still-strong deposit base and cost advantages in funding, I believe Wells Fargo will look to regain that share, and I believe the bank could be particularly effective in middle-market lending in the second half of this decade.</p> <p>Last and not least on the growth side, Wells Fargo is still relatively early in its efforts to expand its card lending. It’s still a small part of overall lending relative to Bank of America and JPMorgan (Citi is so reliant on card lending that it’s not a fair comp), but it’s growing and the bank’s recent offerings have proven quite competitive, leading to two straight quarters now where only Wells Fargo and JPMorgan delivered double-digit growth in their card loans.</p> <p>Also significant, but not a revenue growth driver, is the opportunity for cost leverage as regulatory remediation efforts wind down. Between restrictions on growing the business (limiting leverage) and spending specifically to resolve outstanding regulatory/compliance issues, I believe there are at least a couple of points of operating leverage that can be unlocked by exiting the asset cap era, although it’s not obvious to me if Wells Fargo will immediately look to maximize leverage or will look to up its IT investments to support future growth.</p> <h2><strong>The Outlook</strong></h2> <p>The Fed’s recent stress test saw Wells Fargo with one of the highest capital requirement increases (a 90bps increase in the stress capital buffer to 3.8%), due in part to weaker non-interest income. I don’t see an ongoing problem here, though I do suppose this could limit some capital returns in the near term. I do note, though, that the bank is well-positioned for new liquidity rules and is in good shape for new capital requirements, particularly if recent rumors prove accurate and the actual capital increase for large banks is on the order of 5% (versus the initial proposal of 16%).</p> <p>Wells Fargo came in about 7% ahead of my prior estimates for FY’23 (in terms of core earnings), and while I haven’t rolled all of that into new estimates, my FY’24 core earnings estimate is about 6% higher (the increases are more modest for FY’25/26). Using 2023 as the new starting point, I’m looking for around 3% growth over the next five years and about 50bp higher (4%) for the next 10 years.</p> <p>Discounting those core earnings back, I believe Wells Fargo is undervalued below the mid-$60’s, and that’s still with an elevated discount rate over the next few years to reflect ongoing regulatory issues. Other valuation approaches (an ROTCE-driven P/TBV and 12-month P/E) give me similar values in the low-to-mid-$60’s.</p> <p>To give some sense of what lifting the asset cap could do for valuation, Wells Fargo management is targeting a mid-teens ROTCE. They can’t get there with the asset cap in place, but I think it’s a valid target once the regulatory issues are resolved. If I valued Wells Fargo today on a 15% ROTCE, the fair value would increase to a little over $70, and importantly that’s still using today’s TBVPS (not giving the company credit for improved growth opportunities).</p> <h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2> <p>I wrote about PNC lately and the two banks offer roughly similar upside today, and while it’s easy to immediately conclude that they’re very different banks (PNC has a reputation for being conservatively-run and reliable), both have explicitly targeted growth in the coming years; Wells Fargo more from unleashing pent-up capabilities and PNC more from organic expansion into new markets.</p> <div></div> <p>In any case, I think there’s still an argument for owning Wells Fargo. There are near-term economic and credit risks, and mid-term risks around the regulatory situation, but sooner or later, Wells Fargo will be free to operate without the asset cap limitations. Once that happens, I believe the market may yet be surprised at the growth and returns the bank can produce, and the shares don’t fully reflect that potential.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWells Fargo: Manageable Near-Term Risks And Meaningful Longer-Term Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-02 03:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/458947847/image_458947847.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","WFC":"富国银行","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","BAC":"美国银行","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701909-wells-fargo-stock-wf-manageable-near-term-risks-meaningful-long-term-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2448273941","content_text":"Wells Fargo's second quarter is likely to resemble recent quarters, with modest underperformance in lending (outside cards), healthy non-interest income, and rising credit costs.CRE credit is likely to get worse from here, but Wells Fargo is already well-reserved and this is likely to be a multiyear process.Wells Fargo continues to make progress on resolving outstanding regulatory and compliance issues, and the removal of the asset cap should unlock significant growth opportunities.Long-term core earnings growth in the neighborhood of 4% can support a fair value in the $60's, as can ROTCE-driven P/TBV and P/E. wdstock Current operating conditions are still not exactly easy for Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), even excluding the self-inflicted headwinds of past management mistakes. An asset-sensitive bank, higher-for longer rates haven’t been all that bad for this bank. Wells Fargo’s strong core deposit franchise has allowed it to maintain a better-than-average deposit beta that has helped offset some weak lending performances that have, at least in part, been driven by the compromises needed to comply with the ongoing asset cap. Wells Fargo shares are up more than 40% since my last update, performing not only the large bank group in general, but also close rivals like Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM). While I don’t see the same upside as before, I do think there is underappreciated leverage here on the other side of its regulatory remediation process, including opportunities in lending share growth, deposit share growth, trading growth, and middle market growth. Not A Lot Is Likely To Change In The Very Short Term Two of the last three quarters since my last update on Wells Fargo have seen modest pre-provision beats, and that’s basically what I’m expecting again this time around. Loan growth has been weak for large banks in general (basically flat in the second quarter), and I expect Wells Fargo to continue to underperform here. I’m also not that confident that rates will offer much leverage, and I see a modest risk of underperformance on net interest margin. Where I do see the most potential for upside is in the fee income items. Investment advisory fees, trading revenue, and card fees have all been growing nicely, and I believe these can offer some upside again in Q2’24. I do see some risk to costs, though, as the bank continues to spend on remediation projects and invest in areas like capital markets growth. I also do not expect any dramatic updates on the credit side. I’d be surprised if provisions weren’t meaningfully higher on a sequential basis, and likewise for net charge-offs. Management has been pretty active in reserving against its CRE office book (about 3% of loans, and around 11% reserved last quarter), and I don’t see conditions getting any better in major markets like San Francisco. Management guided to a high single-digit year-over-year decline for net interest income in 2024 with the prior quarter, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much. It’s basically a “steady as she goes” situation, with most of the deviation in Q2’24 earnings likely to come from fee income, opex, and provisioning. Meaningful Post-Cap Opportunities I continue to be very interested in the leverage Wells Fargo could unlock once it exits this ongoing period of consent decrees and an asset cap that has meaningfully limited management’s options to grow the business over the last several years. As a reminder, the company saw the OCC terminate a consent order in mid-February of this year, but eight still remain (three from the Fed, three from the OCC, and two from the CFPB). I don’t believe all of these consent orders will need to be ended before the asset cap could be removed, but I don’t expect any move on the asset cap until after the election this year, and the outcome of that election could well have some bearing on the regulatory/asset cap issue. Eventually, though, the asset cap will be lifted, and Wells Fargo will be in a very different position where earnings growth opportunities are concerned. First, while Wells Fargo is still a very small player in trading next to the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup (C), and JPMorgan (about one-quarter the revenue of the first two and 20% of the third), it has been growing the business nicely for some time now. I think it’s important to note that the asset cap has limited the capital that management can direct toward trading, and management has been syndicating loans to free up capital to reinvest here. Once the cap goes away, this could be an area of meaningful and profitable revenue growth, albeit with significant quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year volatility (it’s just the nature of trading). I also see growth opportunities from regaining share in its core lending markets. Wells Fargo has been meaningfully undergrowing its rivals across both commercial and consumer lending, as the company has been restrained on marketing new products and devoting capital to lending growth. With a still-strong deposit base and cost advantages in funding, I believe Wells Fargo will look to regain that share, and I believe the bank could be particularly effective in middle-market lending in the second half of this decade. Last and not least on the growth side, Wells Fargo is still relatively early in its efforts to expand its card lending. It’s still a small part of overall lending relative to Bank of America and JPMorgan (Citi is so reliant on card lending that it’s not a fair comp), but it’s growing and the bank’s recent offerings have proven quite competitive, leading to two straight quarters now where only Wells Fargo and JPMorgan delivered double-digit growth in their card loans. Also significant, but not a revenue growth driver, is the opportunity for cost leverage as regulatory remediation efforts wind down. Between restrictions on growing the business (limiting leverage) and spending specifically to resolve outstanding regulatory/compliance issues, I believe there are at least a couple of points of operating leverage that can be unlocked by exiting the asset cap era, although it’s not obvious to me if Wells Fargo will immediately look to maximize leverage or will look to up its IT investments to support future growth. The Outlook The Fed’s recent stress test saw Wells Fargo with one of the highest capital requirement increases (a 90bps increase in the stress capital buffer to 3.8%), due in part to weaker non-interest income. I don’t see an ongoing problem here, though I do suppose this could limit some capital returns in the near term. I do note, though, that the bank is well-positioned for new liquidity rules and is in good shape for new capital requirements, particularly if recent rumors prove accurate and the actual capital increase for large banks is on the order of 5% (versus the initial proposal of 16%). Wells Fargo came in about 7% ahead of my prior estimates for FY’23 (in terms of core earnings), and while I haven’t rolled all of that into new estimates, my FY’24 core earnings estimate is about 6% higher (the increases are more modest for FY’25/26). Using 2023 as the new starting point, I’m looking for around 3% growth over the next five years and about 50bp higher (4%) for the next 10 years. Discounting those core earnings back, I believe Wells Fargo is undervalued below the mid-$60’s, and that’s still with an elevated discount rate over the next few years to reflect ongoing regulatory issues. Other valuation approaches (an ROTCE-driven P/TBV and 12-month P/E) give me similar values in the low-to-mid-$60’s. To give some sense of what lifting the asset cap could do for valuation, Wells Fargo management is targeting a mid-teens ROTCE. They can’t get there with the asset cap in place, but I think it’s a valid target once the regulatory issues are resolved. If I valued Wells Fargo today on a 15% ROTCE, the fair value would increase to a little over $70, and importantly that’s still using today’s TBVPS (not giving the company credit for improved growth opportunities). The Bottom Line I wrote about PNC lately and the two banks offer roughly similar upside today, and while it’s easy to immediately conclude that they’re very different banks (PNC has a reputation for being conservatively-run and reliable), both have explicitly targeted growth in the coming years; Wells Fargo more from unleashing pent-up capabilities and PNC more from organic expansion into new markets. In any case, I think there’s still an argument for owning Wells Fargo. There are near-term economic and credit risks, and mid-term risks around the regulatory situation, but sooner or later, Wells Fargo will be free to operate without the asset cap limitations. Once that happens, I believe the market may yet be surprised at the growth and returns the bank can produce, and the shares don’t fully reflect that potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322926534459720,"gmtCreate":1719848499610,"gmtModify":1719848504176,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 跑赢科技股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 跑赢科技股","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 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获利跑路lo喽,继续加富国银行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322899153858880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4112362136204710","authorId":"4112362136204710","name":"鸡蛋炒韭黄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25c1ff3def97bc121634b9fc85afe62","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"tsla 才刚开始","text":"tsla 才刚开始","html":"tsla 才刚开始"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322877192073528,"gmtCreate":1719836447220,"gmtModify":1719836448592,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 必须看好,中国销量在增长","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 必须看好,中国销量在增长","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 必须看好,中国销量在增长","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322877192073528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322891819606176,"gmtCreate":1719832420570,"gmtModify":1719832422116,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 买富国银行","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 买富国银行","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 买富国银行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322891819606176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322842873225344,"gmtCreate":1719828171115,"gmtModify":1719828172448,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 今天进特斯拉支持下fsd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 今天进特斯拉支持下fsd","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天进特斯拉支持下fsd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322842873225344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322096937050424,"gmtCreate":1719645955271,"gmtModify":1719645958952,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322096937050424","repostId":"2446400148","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2446400148","pubTimestamp":1719327618,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2446400148?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-25 23:00","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Wells Fargo says AI is moving beyond tech and spotlights opportunities elsewhere","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2446400148","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wells Fargo highlighted artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential area of investment over the next 18 months, as the transformation in AI is moving beyond the traditional tech sector and into other ","content":"<html><body><div> <p>Wells Fargo highlighted artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential area of investment over the next 18 months, as the transformation in AI is moving beyond the traditional tech sector and into other segments of the economy that it believes may offer opportunities for<span> investors.</span></p> <p>“The rapid growth in generative artificial intelligence could transform the economy beyond the Information Technology sector through improved productivity across industries,” Wells Fargo said in an investor note on Tuesday.</p> <p>The investment institution went on to state: “AI requires enormous amounts of data storage, computing power, and energy. We think data-center construction and electrical requirements to support AI will benefit select real estate investment trusts as well as energy and industrial companies.”</p> <p>For investors that are looking to keep a close eye on the artificial intelligence trend, listed below are a group of exchange-traded funds that may be worth further analyzing:</p> <ul> <li>GX Artificial Intelligence & Tech ETF (<span>NASDAQ:AIQ</span>)</li> <li>GX Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (<span>NASDAQ:BOTZ</span>)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DTEC\">ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF</a> (DTEC)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GINN\">Goldman Sachs Innovate Equity ETF</a> (GINN)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRBO\">iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF</a> (<span>NYSEARCA:IRBO</span>)</li> <li>Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (<span>NASDAQ:ROBT</span>)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TECB\">iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF</a> (TECB)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XT\">iShares Exponential Technologies ETF</a> (XT)</li> <li>Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ)</li> <li>Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)</li> </ul> </div> </body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wells Fargo says AI is moving beyond tech and spotlights opportunities elsewhere</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWells Fargo says AI is moving beyond tech and spotlights opportunities elsewhere\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-25 23:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118768-wells-fargo-says-ai-is-moving-beyond-tech-and-spotlights-opportunities-elsewhere><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wells Fargo highlighted artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential area of investment over the next 18 months, as the transformation in AI is moving beyond the traditional tech sector and into other ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118768-wells-fargo-says-ai-is-moving-beyond-tech-and-spotlights-opportunities-elsewhere\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1817371218/image_1817371218.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","DTEC":"ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","ROBT":"First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","GINN":"Goldman Sachs Innovate Equity ETF","XT":"iShares Exponential Technologies ETF","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","THNQ":"ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","WFC":"富国银行","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","TECB":"iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BOTZ":"Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4501":"段永平概念","AIQ":"Global X Future Analytics Tech ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118768-wells-fargo-says-ai-is-moving-beyond-tech-and-spotlights-opportunities-elsewhere","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2446400148","content_text":"Wells Fargo highlighted artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential area of investment over the next 18 months, as the transformation in AI is moving beyond the traditional tech sector and into other segments of the economy that it believes may offer opportunities for investors. “The rapid growth in generative artificial intelligence could transform the economy beyond the Information Technology sector through improved productivity across industries,” Wells Fargo said in an investor note on Tuesday. The investment institution went on to state: “AI requires enormous amounts of data storage, computing power, and energy. We think data-center construction and electrical requirements to support AI will benefit select real estate investment trusts as well as energy and industrial companies.” For investors that are looking to keep a close eye on the artificial intelligence trend, listed below are a group of exchange-traded funds that may be worth further analyzing: GX Artificial Intelligence & Tech ETF (NASDAQ:AIQ) GX Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ) ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC) Goldman Sachs Innovate Equity ETF (GINN) iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (NYSEARCA:IRBO) Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (NASDAQ:ROBT) iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF (TECB) iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321888115380560,"gmtCreate":1719595031763,"gmtModify":1719595033342,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321888115380560","repostId":"321639119724824","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":321639119724824,"gmtCreate":1719544803244,"gmtModify":1719545300028,"author":{"id":"4093504281887960","authorId":"4093504281887960","name":"芝士虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a05d038882153678ee817929431fc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美联储短期放鹰,为什么是配置长债的好时机?","htmlText":"虎友,你好~6月25日晚,美联储理事鲍曼就货币政策发表讲话。鲍曼称,预计2024年不会有任何降息行动,美联储可能把降息时间推迟至2025年:“我们仍然尚未达到适合下调政策利率的节点,鉴于我们的经济展望存在风险和不确定性,我在考虑政策立场未来的变化时将保持审慎。”美联储 6 月最新点阵图预测显示,4 位认为今年不降息,7 位认为降一次, 8 位认为降两次,没有人认为今年会降息 3 次或以上。这比之前点阵图要鹰的多。毕竟,3 月的点阵图中有 10 位认为降 3 次或以上。目前来看,降息预期如果不断被拉低,那想要配置美国国债的虎友们应该怎么选呢?选短债还是长期国债?其实,现在在降息预期不明的时候,正好是配置长债的好时机~原因有以下两点:一、5月社零未达预期,消费者动力减弱从宏观数据来看,5月份零售销售环比增长0.1%,低于预期的0.2%。核心零售销售(不包括汽车、汽油和建筑材料)在5月份环比增长了0.4%,低于预期的0.5%,4月份的数据被向下修正了0.4%。另一个数据:消费者信用和收入增长放缓。循环信贷的增长放缓,逾期率上升,表明家庭可能开始耗尽其借贷能力。收入增长也因劳动力市场放缓而减缓,这将使家庭在可自由支配商品和服务上的支出能力降低。同时,调查数据显示家庭对其财务状况越来越悲观。如果消费数据持续减弱,那么降序的预期又会重新被拔高。二、失业率数据上升,可能会推动美联储进行降息鲍威尔在6月FOMC答记者中的宏观解读,同样可以看出经济疲弱的暗影:1、鲍威尔在会上提高明年和后年的失业率预期;相信美联储已经注意到了就业市场在走弱,而且暗示如果迅速恶化,联储不会坐视不管。说明一旦失业数据继续提升,在当前通胀不太可能重新大幅上涨的情况下,美联储可能就会出手降息。2、美联储可能是最后的“嘴硬”;美联储的态度仍然是data dependent,而且在经济还稳的情况下,可以再放鹰打压一下本周","listText":"虎友,你好~6月25日晚,美联储理事鲍曼就货币政策发表讲话。鲍曼称,预计2024年不会有任何降息行动,美联储可能把降息时间推迟至2025年:“我们仍然尚未达到适合下调政策利率的节点,鉴于我们的经济展望存在风险和不确定性,我在考虑政策立场未来的变化时将保持审慎。”美联储 6 月最新点阵图预测显示,4 位认为今年不降息,7 位认为降一次, 8 位认为降两次,没有人认为今年会降息 3 次或以上。这比之前点阵图要鹰的多。毕竟,3 月的点阵图中有 10 位认为降 3 次或以上。目前来看,降息预期如果不断被拉低,那想要配置美国国债的虎友们应该怎么选呢?选短债还是长期国债?其实,现在在降息预期不明的时候,正好是配置长债的好时机~原因有以下两点:一、5月社零未达预期,消费者动力减弱从宏观数据来看,5月份零售销售环比增长0.1%,低于预期的0.2%。核心零售销售(不包括汽车、汽油和建筑材料)在5月份环比增长了0.4%,低于预期的0.5%,4月份的数据被向下修正了0.4%。另一个数据:消费者信用和收入增长放缓。循环信贷的增长放缓,逾期率上升,表明家庭可能开始耗尽其借贷能力。收入增长也因劳动力市场放缓而减缓,这将使家庭在可自由支配商品和服务上的支出能力降低。同时,调查数据显示家庭对其财务状况越来越悲观。如果消费数据持续减弱,那么降序的预期又会重新被拔高。二、失业率数据上升,可能会推动美联储进行降息鲍威尔在6月FOMC答记者中的宏观解读,同样可以看出经济疲弱的暗影:1、鲍威尔在会上提高明年和后年的失业率预期;相信美联储已经注意到了就业市场在走弱,而且暗示如果迅速恶化,联储不会坐视不管。说明一旦失业数据继续提升,在当前通胀不太可能重新大幅上涨的情况下,美联储可能就会出手降息。2、美联储可能是最后的“嘴硬”;美联储的态度仍然是data dependent,而且在经济还稳的情况下,可以再放鹰打压一下本周","text":"虎友,你好~6月25日晚,美联储理事鲍曼就货币政策发表讲话。鲍曼称,预计2024年不会有任何降息行动,美联储可能把降息时间推迟至2025年:“我们仍然尚未达到适合下调政策利率的节点,鉴于我们的经济展望存在风险和不确定性,我在考虑政策立场未来的变化时将保持审慎。”美联储 6 月最新点阵图预测显示,4 位认为今年不降息,7 位认为降一次, 8 位认为降两次,没有人认为今年会降息 3 次或以上。这比之前点阵图要鹰的多。毕竟,3 月的点阵图中有 10 位认为降 3 次或以上。目前来看,降息预期如果不断被拉低,那想要配置美国国债的虎友们应该怎么选呢?选短债还是长期国债?其实,现在在降息预期不明的时候,正好是配置长债的好时机~原因有以下两点:一、5月社零未达预期,消费者动力减弱从宏观数据来看,5月份零售销售环比增长0.1%,低于预期的0.2%。核心零售销售(不包括汽车、汽油和建筑材料)在5月份环比增长了0.4%,低于预期的0.5%,4月份的数据被向下修正了0.4%。另一个数据:消费者信用和收入增长放缓。循环信贷的增长放缓,逾期率上升,表明家庭可能开始耗尽其借贷能力。收入增长也因劳动力市场放缓而减缓,这将使家庭在可自由支配商品和服务上的支出能力降低。同时,调查数据显示家庭对其财务状况越来越悲观。如果消费数据持续减弱,那么降序的预期又会重新被拔高。二、失业率数据上升,可能会推动美联储进行降息鲍威尔在6月FOMC答记者中的宏观解读,同样可以看出经济疲弱的暗影:1、鲍威尔在会上提高明年和后年的失业率预期;相信美联储已经注意到了就业市场在走弱,而且暗示如果迅速恶化,联储不会坐视不管。说明一旦失业数据继续提升,在当前通胀不太可能重新大幅上涨的情况下,美联储可能就会出手降息。2、美联储可能是最后的“嘴硬”;美联储的态度仍然是data 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10:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"四巨头订单就够季度目标!华尔街发现英伟达“需求远超预期”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134471751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"芯片需求“爆表”,主宰者“英伟达”业绩或远超普遍预期。同时,他们预计其他大型科技公司和人工智能初创企业对英伟达的需求也更乐观。伯恩斯坦分析师表示,目前限制英伟达营收的因素是半导体代工厂先进的芯片封装能力。他们将英伟达股票评级调至“跑赢大盘”,目股价为475美元。目前,英伟达股价为467美元左右。这一分析结果显示了对英伟达未来发展的乐观态度。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>伯恩斯坦分析师,芯片需求爆表,2024年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>数据中心和AI芯片收入或达750亿至900亿美元,远超华尔街分析师的一致预期420亿美元。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芯片需求“爆表”,主宰者“英伟达”业绩或远超普遍预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一,伯恩斯坦分析师通过云计算厂商最新透露的在人工智能支出计划,测算得出英伟达的实际业绩情况可能更为乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>该分析师团队汇总了他们对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 、Meta、字节和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a> AI 芯片支出增长的估计,发现仅这四家公司就足以让英伟达实现本季度的指导目标。</strong>同时,他们预计其他大型科技公司和人工智能初创企业对英伟达的需求也更乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦分析师表示,目前限制英伟达营收的因素是半导体代工厂先进的芯片封装能力。随着明年封装能力的提升,<strong>英伟达将有可能在2024年创造750亿至900亿美元的数据中心和AI芯片收入,而华尔街分析师的一致预期仅为420亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,随着人工智能基础设施建设过多,可能带来的短期和中期风险,比如对英伟达芯片需求先旺后衰,伯恩斯坦技术分析师团队淡化了这一风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他们将英伟达股票评级调至“跑赢大盘”,目股价为475美元。</strong>目前,英伟达股价为467美元左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/906f6ead5c983b5a91f6e22ac4897ac5\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦团队表示,在未来相当长的一段时间内,至少在未来12-18个月内,预计英伟达的业绩将保持增长,并可能将持续走高。这一分析结果显示了对英伟达未来发展的乐观态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前,瑞穗分析师Vijay Rakesh也指出,AI给英伟达带来的股价上行空间超乎想象,并将英伟达目标价从400美元上调至530美元。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>四巨头订单就够季度目标!华尔街发现英伟达“需求远超预期”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四巨头订单就够季度目标!华尔街发现英伟达“需求远超预期”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-01 10:56 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694528><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯恩斯坦分析师,芯片需求爆表,2024年英伟达数据中心和AI芯片收入或达750亿至900亿美元,远超华尔街分析师的一致预期420亿美元。芯片需求“爆表”,主宰者“英伟达”业绩或远超普遍预期。周一,伯恩斯坦分析师通过云计算厂商最新透露的在人工智能支出计划,测算得出英伟达的实际业绩情况可能更为乐观。该分析师团队汇总了他们对微软 、Meta、字节和谷歌 AI 芯片支出增长的估计,发现仅这四家公司就足以让...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694528\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl 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芯片支出增长的估计,发现仅这四家公司就足以让英伟达实现本季度的指导目标。同时,他们预计其他大型科技公司和人工智能初创企业对英伟达的需求也更乐观。伯恩斯坦分析师表示,目前限制英伟达营收的因素是半导体代工厂先进的芯片封装能力。随着明年封装能力的提升,英伟达将有可能在2024年创造750亿至900亿美元的数据中心和AI芯片收入,而华尔街分析师的一致预期仅为420亿美元。不过,随着人工智能基础设施建设过多,可能带来的短期和中期风险,比如对英伟达芯片需求先旺后衰,伯恩斯坦技术分析师团队淡化了这一风险。他们将英伟达股票评级调至“跑赢大盘”,目股价为475美元。目前,英伟达股价为467美元左右。伯恩斯坦团队表示,在未来相当长的一段时间内,至少在未来12-18个月内,预计英伟达的业绩将保持增长,并可能将持续走高。这一分析结果显示了对英伟达未来发展的乐观态度。此前,瑞穗分析师Vijay Rakesh也指出,AI给英伟达带来的股价上行空间超乎想象,并将英伟达目标价从400美元上调至530美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3470548862272800","authorId":"3470548862272800","name":"峰子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"扯淡,用LLM的人都没几个了,还用的人越多对算力越高,在国内就没几个人能够正确打开,都用来聊天去了。生成式AI根本不需要大语言模型,台式机显卡就能解决问题了。","text":"扯淡,用LLM的人都没几个了,还用的人越多对算力越高,在国内就没几个人能够正确打开,都用来聊天去了。生成式AI根本不需要大语言模型,台式机显卡就能解决问题了。","html":"扯淡,用LLM的人都没几个了,还用的人越多对算力越高,在国内就没几个人能够正确打开,都用来聊天去了。生成式AI根本不需要大语言模型,台式机显卡就能解决问题了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318335890137312,"gmtCreate":1718757344942,"gmtModify":1718862602066,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ 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