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阿三哥
2021-08-31
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
阿三哥
2021-04-16
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
选择纳指,又不选择成分股,要么就是你们**,要么就是你们贪心。反正我60%收益妥妥的
阿三哥
2021-03-25
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
你们连10个点的波动都受不了,还炒什么股
阿三哥
2021-03-12
要点脸吧
抱歉,原内容已删除
阿三哥
2021-03-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
小弟玩美股三年,没有取得很好的成绩,收益80%左右。全部完成纳指。见证了去年熔断时期各路牛鬼蛇神出来诠释世界。现在发现,牛鬼蛇神们好像都换了号继续拯救世界拯救人类。小弟只想说,股票地最终价值取决于未来现金流的净现值,这是最终价值的唯一标准,其他都是短期价值。至少,我认为,那些牛鬼蛇神号可能一辈子的目标就是买得起苹果手机,或者,能给女朋友买一部苹果手机就能脱单。他的笔记本里应该用的还是微软的系统,大部分手机软件内核还是谷歌的,类文档处理软件应该还是adobe。这就是我的逻辑依据,虽然只挣了80万刀,收益率一般,但是好过程中从没赔过收益率,或许这才是基本面分析。
阿三哥
2021-03-05
拜登不是你们选的嘛
阿三哥
2021-03-05
这就是你们前段时间力捧的拜登?感觉美国民众都没那几个大神懂行。有本事你们别换小号发言啊,你们那几个我又不是不知道你们换了啥号。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>选择纳指,又不选择成分股,要么就是你们**,要么就是你们贪心。反正我60%收益妥妥的","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$选择纳指,又不选择成分股,要么就是你们**,要么就是你们贪心。反正我60%收益妥妥的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347556276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3457948467745574","authorId":"3457948467745574","name":"阿童木爱呆呆喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1597003cfde21679cd8b7184ccc3b7c0","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3457948467745574","idStr":"3457948467745574"},"content":"小盘股跌出屎了,和中概股走什么关系,现在就狂拉几只大型科技股,如果拉不动了就是股灾了","text":"小盘股跌出屎了,和中概股走什么关系,现在就狂拉几只大型科技股,如果拉不动了就是股灾了","html":"小盘股跌出屎了,和中概股走什么关系,现在就狂拉几只大型科技股,如果拉不动了就是股灾了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358156264,"gmtCreate":1616675550858,"gmtModify":1616675550858,"author":{"id":"3543490871793404","authorId":"3543490871793404","name":"阿三哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3543490871793404","idStr":"3543490871793404"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>你们连10个点的波动都受不了,还炒什么股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>你们连10个点的波动都受不了,还炒什么股","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 你们连10个点的波动都受不了,还炒什么股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358156264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3533084678796733","authorId":"3533084678796733","name":"給你壹个韭菜包","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f738c869c9e22180516f2e2b4baffd5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3533084678796733","idStr":"3533084678796733"},"content":"期指跌10个点!个股跌50%!","text":"期指跌10个点!个股跌50%!","html":"期指跌10个点!个股跌50%!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818928084,"gmtCreate":1630371664148,"gmtModify":1704959233543,"author":{"id":"3543490871793404","authorId":"3543490871793404","name":"阿三哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3543490871793404","idStr":"3543490871793404"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818928084","repostId":"1128135952","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128135952","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630364751,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128135952?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-31 07:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果股价创历史新高,市值超2.5万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128135952","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月31日,苹果收涨3.04%,创下今年3月以来最大单日涨幅,报153.12美元刷新历史新高,最新总市值超25000亿美元,达25352亿美元。\n据悉,新的iPhone 13将在9月份发布,其相较于去","content":"<p>8月31日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>收涨3.04%,创下今年3月以来最大单日涨幅,报153.12美元刷新历史新高,最新总市值超25000亿美元,达25352亿美元。</p>\n<p>据悉,新的iPhone 13将在9月份发布,其相较于去年iPhone 12系列的7500万部产能,iPhone 13今年增加了1500万部(今年年底之前新机产量提高到9000万部),需求增长了20%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>分析师郭明錤最新研报预测,iPhone 13硬件规格可支援低轨道卫星通讯,若苹果开启相关软件功能,则当使用者不在4G/5G覆盖范围内时,也能透过卫星通讯通话与传讯。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec225ec6777c2f7866708ae43467f465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果股价创历史新高,市值超2.5万亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果股价创历史新高,市值超2.5万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-31 07:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月31日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>收涨3.04%,创下今年3月以来最大单日涨幅,报153.12美元刷新历史新高,最新总市值超25000亿美元,达25352亿美元。</p>\n<p>据悉,新的iPhone 13将在9月份发布,其相较于去年iPhone 12系列的7500万部产能,iPhone 13今年增加了1500万部(今年年底之前新机产量提高到9000万部),需求增长了20%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>分析师郭明錤最新研报预测,iPhone 13硬件规格可支援低轨道卫星通讯,若苹果开启相关软件功能,则当使用者不在4G/5G覆盖范围内时,也能透过卫星通讯通话与传讯。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec225ec6777c2f7866708ae43467f465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ec3def981bd8ed848cbde61f044f04","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128135952","content_text":"8月31日,苹果收涨3.04%,创下今年3月以来最大单日涨幅,报153.12美元刷新历史新高,最新总市值超25000亿美元,达25352亿美元。\n据悉,新的iPhone 13将在9月份发布,其相较于去年iPhone 12系列的7500万部产能,iPhone 13今年增加了1500万部(今年年底之前新机产量提高到9000万部),需求增长了20%。天风证券分析师郭明錤最新研报预测,iPhone 13硬件规格可支援低轨道卫星通讯,若苹果开启相关软件功能,则当使用者不在4G/5G覆盖范围内时,也能透过卫星通讯通话与传讯。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328989050,"gmtCreate":1615479040570,"gmtModify":1703489793073,"author":{"id":"3543490871793404","authorId":"3543490871793404","name":"阿三哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3543490871793404","idStr":"3543490871793404"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要点脸吧","listText":"要点脸吧","text":"要点脸吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328989050","repostId":"1156665265","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156665265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615430184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156665265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股牛市摇摇欲坠,是即将终结还是暂时回调?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156665265","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调?投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结,还是仅仅只是短暂回调?\n针对上述争议,R","content":"<blockquote>\n 美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调?投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n</blockquote>\n<p>近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结,还是仅仅只是短暂回调?</p>\n<p>针对上述争议,Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨(Lance Roberts)对美股市场进行了分析,他的分析基于一个重要的前提:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>牛市产生于悲观,增长于怀疑,终结于兴奋。</b>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>他表示,尽管美股牛市是否结束存在争议,但几乎没有争议的一点是,<b>美股投资者现在非常“兴奋”</b>。从散户交易者过度买入看涨期权,到追逐市场上做空最多的股票,美股投资者的状态甚至可以用“狂热来形容”。</p>\n<p>从资产配置也可看出美股投资者当前的状态。如下图所示,<b>基金经理的现金配置比例降至3.8%,为2013年3月以来的最低水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f501936dbaf6702ac10585077c92bd\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>对股票和大宗商品的配置达到2011年2月以来的最高水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21196b78956709db1adc2c5a9ba94887\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>许多投资者都在承担着高于正常水平的风险。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538309995d29c840e30cd2e16fa8247c\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roberts表示,他们从上周开始看到,大部分投资者从动量交易轮换至追求价值股。他认为这种轮换很可能类似于“刚跳出煎锅又跳进了火里”。</p>\n<p>数据显示,目前的小盘股价值比过去20年的任何时候都要高。由于这类股票与长期均值极度偏离,并且被严重高估,最终的价值回归将是残酷的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cb3163920df8a2acc195289b5f6e0b\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同样的情况也出现在罗素2000指数的周线图上,该指数也增加了中型股敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远高于最乐观的经济前景,因此出现下跌的风险很高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91974022e7979e069138634d5e80aa84\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>经济重新开放和板块轮换的典型代表是能源股。就像小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样,能源股也极度超买,并偏离了长期均值。</p>\n<p>从历史经验来看,<b>当出现价值回归时,情况都非常惨烈,这一次不太可能有所不同。</b></p>\n<p>中期指标也释放出令人担心的信号。例如资金流动,<b>尽管过去几个月市场“表面上”很活跃,但资金流动继续走弱。</b></p>\n<p>去年11月初,随着“买入信号”的触发,Roberts建议增加投资组合中的股票敞口。然而,从2月份开始,这一信号发生了逆转,导致价格持续下行。</p>\n<p>虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹,但<b>“资金流动”的下降,以及“卖出信号”的出现,确实增加了Roberts对市场在未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf0470a64fbafd8740d18897f847e8ad\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>他的买入信号存在一个问题,它并不能预测下跌的幅度。例如,<b>2020年9月和10月出现“卖出信号”后,美股出现两次10%的下跌。而去年3月份的信号则导致美股在3周内暴跌35%。</b></p>\n<p>他表示<b>,鉴于MACD也出现卖出信号,肯定存在更大幅度下跌的风险。</b>但他怀疑,短期内的下跌仍将遇到买家接盘,因为看涨的势头依然存在。然而,如果有什么突发事情“惊动”了市场,仍有可能出现进一步的下跌,因此风险管理仍是关键。</p>\n<p>那么,几周前开始的调整是否已经结束了呢?目前看涨和看跌双方都有充足的理由坚持自己的观点。看涨者认为,另一项刺激法案的通过将给市场和经济带来短期的提振。而看跌者认为,从极度繁荣到估值过高,一切都构成了长期威胁。</p>\n<p>不过,<b>“多头”仍控制着市场。</b>目前,长期的牛市趋势仍未改变。下图是标普500指数的月线图,<b>始于2009年的牛市趋势仍未改变。如果要回落到这一趋势线下方,美股还有近30%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7675552674833f05d1ba5d032901e646\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而,真正的问题是,考虑到相对于长期均值的极端偏离,市场在当前水平上是否仍具有可持续性?</p>\n<p>对于那些喜欢类比的人来说,<b>历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融涨”。在那期间,市场从支撑位反弹,然后开始了60%的“融涨”,最终在2000年见顶。</b>目前,标普500指数从去年3月份的低点也上涨了近60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b351e9bc136d0f15688ab99d4760cea\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roberts并没有给出一个明确的答案,而是<b>建议投资者继续持有略高于正常水平的现金,并继续做好基本的风险管理控制。</b>因此,在接下来的几周内,他认为投资者需要做好以下三点:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1、卖出那些根本不起作用的头寸。对于那些既没有在市场上涨时跟着上涨,有没有在市场下跌时提供支撑的头寸,要尽早承认错误,平掉这些头寸,也就是截断亏损。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2、将有利头寸调整至合适的权重,简单来说就是让利润奔跑。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3、保留现金,以便将来有机会以更好的价位进场。\n</blockquote>\n<p>当市场上涨时,“看跌”的担忧往往会被忽视,但这并不意味着它们是无效的。不幸的是,等到“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变时,往往都已经太晚了。</p>\n<p>他表示,去预测未来的市场走势毫无意义,不管牛市结束与否,投资者应该关注的是市场的变化。而目前投资者面临的最大风险就是“<b>故意对市场变化视而不见</b>”,等开始重视时却为时已晚。要知道,在1999年和2007年,也没有人认为“牛市已死”。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股牛市摇摇欲坠,是即将终结还是暂时回调?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股牛市摇摇欲坠,是即将终结还是暂时回调?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-11 10:36 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调?投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结,还是仅仅只是短暂回调?\n针对上述争议,Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨(Lance Roberts)对美股市场进行了分析,他的分析基于一个重要的前提:\n\n “\n 牛市产生于悲观,增长于怀疑,终结于兴奋。”\n\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156665265","content_text":"美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调?投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结,还是仅仅只是短暂回调?\n针对上述争议,Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨(Lance Roberts)对美股市场进行了分析,他的分析基于一个重要的前提:\n\n “\n 牛市产生于悲观,增长于怀疑,终结于兴奋。”\n\n他表示,尽管美股牛市是否结束存在争议,但几乎没有争议的一点是,美股投资者现在非常“兴奋”。从散户交易者过度买入看涨期权,到追逐市场上做空最多的股票,美股投资者的状态甚至可以用“狂热来形容”。\n从资产配置也可看出美股投资者当前的状态。如下图所示,基金经理的现金配置比例降至3.8%,为2013年3月以来的最低水平。\n\n对股票和大宗商品的配置达到2011年2月以来的最高水平。\n\n许多投资者都在承担着高于正常水平的风险。\n\nRoberts表示,他们从上周开始看到,大部分投资者从动量交易轮换至追求价值股。他认为这种轮换很可能类似于“刚跳出煎锅又跳进了火里”。\n数据显示,目前的小盘股价值比过去20年的任何时候都要高。由于这类股票与长期均值极度偏离,并且被严重高估,最终的价值回归将是残酷的。\n\n同样的情况也出现在罗素2000指数的周线图上,该指数也增加了中型股敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远高于最乐观的经济前景,因此出现下跌的风险很高。\n\n经济重新开放和板块轮换的典型代表是能源股。就像小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样,能源股也极度超买,并偏离了长期均值。\n从历史经验来看,当出现价值回归时,情况都非常惨烈,这一次不太可能有所不同。\n中期指标也释放出令人担心的信号。例如资金流动,尽管过去几个月市场“表面上”很活跃,但资金流动继续走弱。\n去年11月初,随着“买入信号”的触发,Roberts建议增加投资组合中的股票敞口。然而,从2月份开始,这一信号发生了逆转,导致价格持续下行。\n虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹,但“资金流动”的下降,以及“卖出信号”的出现,确实增加了Roberts对市场在未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。\n\n他的买入信号存在一个问题,它并不能预测下跌的幅度。例如,2020年9月和10月出现“卖出信号”后,美股出现两次10%的下跌。而去年3月份的信号则导致美股在3周内暴跌35%。\n他表示,鉴于MACD也出现卖出信号,肯定存在更大幅度下跌的风险。但他怀疑,短期内的下跌仍将遇到买家接盘,因为看涨的势头依然存在。然而,如果有什么突发事情“惊动”了市场,仍有可能出现进一步的下跌,因此风险管理仍是关键。\n那么,几周前开始的调整是否已经结束了呢?目前看涨和看跌双方都有充足的理由坚持自己的观点。看涨者认为,另一项刺激法案的通过将给市场和经济带来短期的提振。而看跌者认为,从极度繁荣到估值过高,一切都构成了长期威胁。\n不过,“多头”仍控制着市场。目前,长期的牛市趋势仍未改变。下图是标普500指数的月线图,始于2009年的牛市趋势仍未改变。如果要回落到这一趋势线下方,美股还有近30%的跌幅。\n\n然而,真正的问题是,考虑到相对于长期均值的极端偏离,市场在当前水平上是否仍具有可持续性?\n对于那些喜欢类比的人来说,历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融涨”。在那期间,市场从支撑位反弹,然后开始了60%的“融涨”,最终在2000年见顶。目前,标普500指数从去年3月份的低点也上涨了近60%。\n\nRoberts并没有给出一个明确的答案,而是建议投资者继续持有略高于正常水平的现金,并继续做好基本的风险管理控制。因此,在接下来的几周内,他认为投资者需要做好以下三点:\n\n 1、卖出那些根本不起作用的头寸。对于那些既没有在市场上涨时跟着上涨,有没有在市场下跌时提供支撑的头寸,要尽早承认错误,平掉这些头寸,也就是截断亏损。\n\n\n 2、将有利头寸调整至合适的权重,简单来说就是让利润奔跑。\n\n\n 3、保留现金,以便将来有机会以更好的价位进场。\n\n当市场上涨时,“看跌”的担忧往往会被忽视,但这并不意味着它们是无效的。不幸的是,等到“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变时,往往都已经太晚了。\n他表示,去预测未来的市场走势毫无意义,不管牛市结束与否,投资者应该关注的是市场的变化。而目前投资者面临的最大风险就是“故意对市场变化视而不见”,等开始重视时却为时已晚。要知道,在1999年和2007年,也没有人认为“牛市已死”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367599824,"gmtCreate":1614956682668,"gmtModify":1703483509898,"author":{"id":"3543490871793404","authorId":"3543490871793404","name":"阿三哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3543490871793404","idStr":"3543490871793404"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拜登不是你们选的嘛","listText":"拜登不是你们选的嘛","text":"拜登不是你们选的嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367599824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367500645,"gmtCreate":1614956356487,"gmtModify":1703483494737,"author":{"id":"3543490871793404","authorId":"3543490871793404","name":"阿三哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3543490871793404","idStr":"3543490871793404"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这就是你们前段时间力捧的拜登?感觉美国民众都没那几个大神懂行。有本事你们别换小号发言啊,你们那几个我又不是不知道你们换了啥号。","listText":"这就是你们前段时间力捧的拜登?感觉美国民众都没那几个大神懂行。有本事你们别换小号发言啊,你们那几个我又不是不知道你们换了啥号。","text":"这就是你们前段时间力捧的拜登?感觉美国民众都没那几个大神懂行。有本事你们别换小号发言啊,你们那几个我又不是不知道你们换了啥号。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367500645","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}