nicegame的个人主页 - 老虎社区

nicegame

nicegame

个人简介：长期美股实践者经纪人

IP属地：北京

211关注

127粉丝

10主题

0勋章

07-02 21:13

冲

06-27

编的很像回事

06-26

恒大汽车回来了

法拉第未来飙涨120%！贾跃亭称FF将与中东伙伴加强合作

06-21

截到了这个

06-19

赞

期权女巫 | Salesforce仍远被低估，Sell Put此时应是极佳策略

06-19

Replying to @will0571:太合格了//@will0571:不知道合不合格能投资米国

06-19

Replying to @橡北007:厉害//@橡北007:从高中开始就只买英伟达的显卡，2017加入老虎后一直闭眼定投其股票，最终实现双赢。

06-19

现在可以抄底这张了不？

@OptionS:我开仓了$SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL$ ,每逢smci上涨就sc，轻仓，备注:高风险

06-19

$戴尔(DELL)$ 之前确实喊单了，告诉大家140可以无脑买入

06-18

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

06-17

欢迎有优秀历史成绩的大佬加入我们团队！

06-14

再忍一下，有大收获

@阳光彩虹派:我平仓了$NVDA 20240614 132.0 PUT$ ,做空达子太难了，只能喝口汤

06-14

期待有AI的加持，并且结合盘中成交量来判断个股的买点和卖出时机

06-14

如果soxl大跌30%，岂不是卖一年的短期也回不了本？

06-08

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 今天晚上是没法看到狂澜了

05-31

$戴尔(DELL)$ 140我还是要大举买一点的

05-28

大家好，别来无恙，本月再加油冲一波

05-24

这张小赚一点卖出了，没想到能起飞

@nicegame:$PDD 20240531 160.0 CALL$

05-23

那vrt的期权咋突然成交4000张

期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩爆发，台积电受惠，这只Call成交量狂飙

05-16

我开仓了$XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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会有收获 招募实盘赛队友 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/post/262241417875496\">【小虎访谈】多次实战赛冠军 nicegame：科技股将掀起新一波行情！</a>","starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":323243928744264,"gmtCreate":1719925988449,"gmtModify":1719925990281,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲","listText":"冲","text":"冲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323243928744264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321223041491120,"gmtCreate":1719453892862,"gmtModify":1719453894831,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"编的很像回事","listText":"编的很像回事","text":"编的很像回事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321223041491120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321047672115328,"gmtCreate":1719410982958,"gmtModify":1719410984987,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"恒大汽车回来了","listText":"恒大汽车回来了","text":"恒大汽车回来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321047672115328","repostId":"1136333050","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136333050","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1719409368,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136333050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-26 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n法拉第未来飙涨120%！贾跃亭称FF将与中东伙伴加强合作\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-26 21:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月26日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>涨幅扩大至超过110%。贾跃亭表示，FF与中东合作伙伴达成加强未来合作力度计划。日前法拉第未来宣布，董事会已提出反向拆股建议，提高公司股价以减轻被纳斯达克要求退市的风险。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0451074ea52babed2f3da98531c42011\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136333050","content_text":"6月26日，法拉第未来涨幅扩大至超过110%。贾跃亭表示，FF与中东合作伙伴达成加强未来合作力度计划。日前法拉第未来宣布，董事会已提出反向拆股建议，提高公司股价以减轻被纳斯达克要求退市的风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319270462111960,"gmtCreate":1718976788216,"gmtModify":1718976793428,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"截到了这个","listText":"截到了这个","text":"截到了这个","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d192dffbe74697b9a756f038ffa6b67d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319270462111960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318585510203640,"gmtCreate":1718794873160,"gmtModify":1718794874790,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318585510203640","repostId":"1179345497","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179345497","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1718769472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179345497?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-19 11:57","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Salesforce仍远被低估，Sell Put此时应是极佳策略","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179345497","media":"期权女巫","summary":"在6月18日星期二上午交易中，CRM股票报价为230.38美元，低于3月22日的307.77美元。预期目标价我在5月31日的Barchart文章《Salesforce Overreaction - CRM Stock Looks Deeply Undervalued Based on Its Massive FCF》中讨论了这一点。我展示了Salesforce在未来12个月内可能产生127亿美元的自由现金流。使用4.75%的FCF收益率指标，Salesforce可能达到2667亿美元的市值。这些调查结果都表明，分析师们认为Salesforce仍然被严重低估。尽管如此，如果投资者认为CRM仍然被低估，进行这笔交易是有意义的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a> 的股票在反弹后仍比三个月高点低了超过25%。基于其强劲的自由现金流（FCF），目前股价仍显得便宜。一种应对的方法是做空价外卖权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7f43161f20a8950579cb3552bf322fbf\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>在6月18日星期二上午交易中，CRM股票报价为230.38美元，低于3月22日的307.77美元。然而，基于其强劲的FCF和FCF利润率，未来一年内该股票价值仍超过每股270美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3504575201\">预期目标价</h2><p>我在5月31日的Barchart文章《Salesforce Overreaction - CRM Stock Looks Deeply Undervalued Based on Its Massive FCF》中讨论了这一点。我展示了Salesforce在未来12个月内（NTM）可能产生127亿美元的自由现金流。这是基于预测的NTM销售额的32% FCF利润率得出的。</p><p>使用4.75%的FCF收益率指标（即将FCF乘以21倍的低倍数），Salesforce可能达到2667亿美元的市值。因此，将预测的127亿美元NTM FCF乘以21倍，等于2667亿美元的市值。</p><p>这一数值仍比今天2240亿美元的市值高出19%。换句话说，使用这种方法，股价可能值每股274.15美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_1267403883\">分析师认同</h2><p>其他分析师也对CRM股票有较高的目标价。例如，Barchart对41位分析师的调查显示，其平均目标价为每股290.81美元。Yahoo! Finance对42位分析师的调查平均为296.04美元，而新兴卖方分析师追踪服务AnaChart.com对38位分析师的调查显示，其目标价为273.09美元。</p><p>这些调查结果都表明，分析师们认为Salesforce仍然被严重低估。</p><p>事实上，AnaChart显示，一些最准确的分析师的目标价在300美元或更高。例如，Needham的Scott Berg给出的目标价为345美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c69a5a09939dd7a7738131eefe6b539\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><p>该表显示，他有三分之二的时间达到了其目标价。此外，Brian Peterson有超过85%的命中率，其目标价为325美元。</p><p>对于现有投资者来说，一种操作方式是卖出短期内到期的价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><h2 id=\"id_209290573\">卖出CRM股票的价外看跌期权</h2><p>我在5月31日的Barchart文章中讨论了这一点。我建议卖出6月21日到期的看跌期权，该期权于6月21日星期五到期。当时，CRM股票价格为220.74美元，210美元的行权价看跌期权交易价格为2.51美元。</p><p>如今，这些期权交易价格为3美分。因此，现在可以考虑平仓这笔卖空交易（即下单“买入平仓”），并在近期内再次进行卖空。</p><p>例如，可以看看7月5日到期的期权，距今两週。显示相似交易可以在225.00美元的行权价看跌期权中进行。市场报价为每份合约1.71美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT\" title=\"$CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9bdf31f1f1637ee4c37b59031379651\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1136\"/></p><p>这为这些看跌期权的行权价比当前价格低3.03%。这个行权价低于今天的价格，尽管没有前一次交易那麽远的价外，因此风险更大。</p><p>尽管如此，如果投资者认为CRM仍然被低估，进行这笔交易是有意义的。<strong>这意味著如果价格在7月5日或之前降至该行权价，他们可能需要用已保证的现金以225美元的价格买入。</strong></p><p>但这可能是值得的，因为正如我所展示的那样，CRM仍然被严重低估。此外，卖空者有更低的损益平衡点。这是因为收到的1.71美元收入将总成本从225美元中抵扣</p><p>总之，CRM股票的投资者可以通过卖空这些看跌期权来赚取额外收入。毕竟，该股票的股息收益率非常低，每年仅为0.17%。此外，对于寻求更便宜方式买入股票的投资者来说，这提供了一种有纪律的入市方式。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Salesforce Is Well Off Its Highs and Still Looks Cheap - Shorting OTM Puts Is a Great Way to Play This</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Salesforce仍远被低估，Sell Put此时应是极佳策略</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Salesforce仍远被低估，Sell Put此时应是极佳策略\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-19 11:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a> 的股票在反弹后仍比三个月高点低了超过25%。基于其强劲的自由现金流（FCF），目前股价仍显得便宜。一种应对的方法是做空价外卖权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7f43161f20a8950579cb3552bf322fbf\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>在6月18日星期二上午交易中，CRM股票报价为230.38美元，低于3月22日的307.77美元。然而，基于其强劲的FCF和FCF利润率，未来一年内该股票价值仍超过每股270美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3504575201\">预期目标价</h2><p>我在5月31日的Barchart文章《Salesforce Overreaction - CRM Stock Looks Deeply Undervalued Based on Its Massive FCF》中讨论了这一点。我展示了Salesforce在未来12个月内（NTM）可能产生127亿美元的自由现金流。这是基于预测的NTM销售额的32% FCF利润率得出的。</p><p>使用4.75%的FCF收益率指标（即将FCF乘以21倍的低倍数），Salesforce可能达到2667亿美元的市值。因此，将预测的127亿美元NTM FCF乘以21倍，等于2667亿美元的市值。</p><p>这一数值仍比今天2240亿美元的市值高出19%。换句话说，使用这种方法，股价可能值每股274.15美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_1267403883\">分析师认同</h2><p>其他分析师也对CRM股票有较高的目标价。例如，Barchart对41位分析师的调查显示，其平均目标价为每股290.81美元。Yahoo! Finance对42位分析师的调查平均为296.04美元，而新兴卖方分析师追踪服务AnaChart.com对38位分析师的调查显示，其目标价为273.09美元。</p><p>这些调查结果都表明，分析师们认为Salesforce仍然被严重低估。</p><p>事实上，AnaChart显示，一些最准确的分析师的目标价在300美元或更高。例如，Needham的Scott Berg给出的目标价为345美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c69a5a09939dd7a7738131eefe6b539\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><p>该表显示，他有三分之二的时间达到了其目标价。此外，Brian Peterson有超过85%的命中率，其目标价为325美元。</p><p>对于现有投资者来说，一种操作方式是卖出短期内到期的价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><h2 id=\"id_209290573\">卖出CRM股票的价外看跌期权</h2><p>我在5月31日的Barchart文章中讨论了这一点。我建议卖出6月21日到期的看跌期权，该期权于6月21日星期五到期。当时，CRM股票价格为220.74美元，210美元的行权价看跌期权交易价格为2.51美元。</p><p>如今，这些期权交易价格为3美分。因此，现在可以考虑平仓这笔卖空交易（即下单“买入平仓”），并在近期内再次进行卖空。</p><p>例如，可以看看7月5日到期的期权，距今两週。显示相似交易可以在225.00美元的行权价看跌期权中进行。市场报价为每份合约1.71美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT\" title=\"$CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9bdf31f1f1637ee4c37b59031379651\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1136\"/></p><p>这为这些看跌期权的行权价比当前价格低3.03%。这个行权价低于今天的价格，尽管没有前一次交易那麽远的价外，因此风险更大。</p><p>尽管如此，如果投资者认为CRM仍然被低估，进行这笔交易是有意义的。<strong>这意味著如果价格在7月5日或之前降至该行权价，他们可能需要用已保证的现金以225美元的价格买入。</strong></p><p>但这可能是值得的，因为正如我所展示的那样，CRM仍然被严重低估。此外，卖空者有更低的损益平衡点。这是因为收到的1.71美元收入将总成本从225美元中抵扣</p><p>总之，CRM股票的投资者可以通过卖空这些看跌期权来赚取额外收入。毕竟，该股票的股息收益率非常低，每年仅为0.17%。此外，对于寻求更便宜方式买入股票的投资者来说，这提供了一种有纪律的入市方式。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Salesforce Is Well Off Its Highs and Still Looks Cheap - Shorting OTM Puts Is a Great Way to Play This</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d571f1570050ba1948058a7040908336","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179345497","content_text":"赛富时 的股票在反弹后仍比三个月高点低了超过25%。基于其强劲的自由现金流（FCF），目前股价仍显得便宜。一种应对的方法是做空价外卖权。在6月18日星期二上午交易中，CRM股票报价为230.38美元，低于3月22日的307.77美元。然而，基于其强劲的FCF和FCF利润率，未来一年内该股票价值仍超过每股270美元。预期目标价我在5月31日的Barchart文章《Salesforce Overreaction - CRM Stock Looks Deeply Undervalued Based on Its Massive FCF》中讨论了这一点。我展示了Salesforce在未来12个月内（NTM）可能产生127亿美元的自由现金流。这是基于预测的NTM销售额的32% FCF利润率得出的。使用4.75%的FCF收益率指标（即将FCF乘以21倍的低倍数），Salesforce可能达到2667亿美元的市值。因此，将预测的127亿美元NTM FCF乘以21倍，等于2667亿美元的市值。这一数值仍比今天2240亿美元的市值高出19%。换句话说，使用这种方法，股价可能值每股274.15美元。分析师认同其他分析师也对CRM股票有较高的目标价。例如，Barchart对41位分析师的调查显示，其平均目标价为每股290.81美元。Yahoo! Finance对42位分析师的调查平均为296.04美元，而新兴卖方分析师追踪服务AnaChart.com对38位分析师的调查显示，其目标价为273.09美元。这些调查结果都表明，分析师们认为Salesforce仍然被严重低估。事实上，AnaChart显示，一些最准确的分析师的目标价在300美元或更高。例如，Needham的Scott Berg给出的目标价为345美元。该表显示，他有三分之二的时间达到了其目标价。此外，Brian Peterson有超过85%的命中率，其目标价为325美元。对于现有投资者来说，一种操作方式是卖出短期内到期的价外（OTM）看跌期权。卖出CRM股票的价外看跌期权我在5月31日的Barchart文章中讨论了这一点。我建议卖出6月21日到期的看跌期权，该期权于6月21日星期五到期。当时，CRM股票价格为220.74美元，210美元的行权价看跌期权交易价格为2.51美元。如今，这些期权交易价格为3美分。因此，现在可以考虑平仓这笔卖空交易（即下单“买入平仓”），并在近期内再次进行卖空。例如，可以看看7月5日到期的期权，距今两週。显示相似交易可以在225.00美元的行权价看跌期权中进行。市场报价为每份合约1.71美元。‌$CRM 20240705 225.0 PUT$  ‌这为这些看跌期权的行权价比当前价格低3.03%。这个行权价低于今天的价格，尽管没有前一次交易那麽远的价外，因此风险更大。尽管如此，如果投资者认为CRM仍然被低估，进行这笔交易是有意义的。这意味著如果价格在7月5日或之前降至该行权价，他们可能需要用已保证的现金以225美元的价格买入。但这可能是值得的，因为正如我所展示的那样，CRM仍然被严重低估。此外，卖空者有更低的损益平衡点。这是因为收到的1.71美元收入将总成本从225美元中抵扣总之，CRM股票的投资者可以通过卖空这些看跌期权来赚取额外收入。毕竟，该股票的股息收益率非常低，每年仅为0.17%。此外，对于寻求更便宜方式买入股票的投资者来说，这提供了一种有纪律的入市方式。本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Salesforce Is Well Off Its Highs and Still Looks Cheap - Shorting OTM Puts Is a Great Way to Play This","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318567771447536,"gmtCreate":1718790537599,"gmtModify":1718790973566,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445946053366671\">@will0571</a>:太合格了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445946053366671\">@will0571</a>:不知道合不合格能投资米国","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445946053366671\">@will0571</a>:太合格了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445946053366671\">@will0571</a>:不知道合不合格能投资米国","text":"Replying to @will0571:太合格了//@will0571:不知道合不合格能投资米国","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab49516622636ee51dc263da7bee223f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318567771447536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318574256402688,"gmtCreate":1718790474707,"gmtModify":1718790477348,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3443990987691953\">@橡北007</a>:厉害//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3443990987691953\">@橡北007</a>:从高中开始就只买英伟达的显卡，2017加入老虎后一直闭眼定投其股票，最终实现双赢。","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3443990987691953\">@橡北007</a>:厉害//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3443990987691953\">@橡北007</a>:从高中开始就只买英伟达的显卡，2017加入老虎后一直闭眼定投其股票，最终实现双赢。","text":"Replying to @橡北007:厉害//@橡北007:从高中开始就只买英伟达的显卡，2017加入老虎后一直闭眼定投其股票，最终实现双赢。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8ffcb4107157ef02ee7f3d1f31280d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318574256402688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318376584806592,"gmtCreate":1718767201269,"gmtModify":1718767203210,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在可以抄底这张了不？","listText":"现在可以抄底这张了不？","text":"现在可以抄底这张了不？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318376584806592","repostId":"313583772770528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":313583772770528,"gmtCreate":1717597032317,"gmtModify":1717728741697,"author":{"id":"3585800644196386","authorId":"3585800644196386","name":"OptionS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9047bf44c545bc9fb56d7d7795ee174b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,每逢smci上涨就sc，轻仓，备注:高风险","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,每逢smci上涨就sc，轻仓，备注:高风险","text":"我开仓了$SMCI 20240712 1200.0 CALL$ ,每逢smci上涨就sc，轻仓，备注:高风险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313583772770528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318367765827824,"gmtCreate":1718766093371,"gmtModify":1718786180136,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> 之前确实喊单了，告诉大家140可以无脑买入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> 之前确实喊单了，告诉大家140可以无脑买入","text":"$戴尔(DELL)$ 之前确实喊单了，告诉大家140可以无脑买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318367765827824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3453423336423907","authorId":"3453423336423907","name":"MeowMCapital","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1257c259ce387244524a6d6e01e32f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"130的时候我就觉得可以无脑买入 [笑哭] 没买","text":"130的时候我就觉得可以无脑买入 [笑哭] 没买","html":"130的时候我就觉得可以无脑买入 [笑哭] 没买"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318066230247696,"gmtCreate":1718691509239,"gmtModify":1718692844034,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情： <a 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14:05","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩爆发，台积电受惠，这只Call成交量狂飙","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178346757","media":"期权女巫","summary":"例如，TSMC是Nvidia设计的高性能GPU和特殊人工智能芯片的首选制造商，Nvidia今天发布了季度业绩。例如，报告显示，在这一水平上交易了超过6000份认购期权合约。$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$ 此外，这些认购期权的中间价格为4.4美元。毫无疑问，这可能是与今天公布的Nvidia收入有关的衍生投资。例如，如果Nvidia的收入大幅增长，这意味着TSM的收入将继续随着上行惊喜而上升。相对估值 此外，与Nvidia相比，TSM的盈利预测相对便宜。这远低于其主要客户之一Nvidia的倍数。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>上周， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 这家大型半导体制造公司发布了四月份收入意外增长的消息。因此，TSM股票的认购期权今天出现了异常活跃的情况，突显了其潜在价值。TSM直接受益于对云服务器和人工智能芯片的增加关注。</p><p>例如，TSMC是Nvidia（NVDA）设计的高性能GPU和特殊人工智能芯片的首选制造商，Nvidia今天发布了季度业绩。</p><h2 id=\"id_3197311808\">意外收入增长</h2><p>最近的报告对市场来说是一个意外。在4月18日，公司的Q1财报显示，尽管净收入同比增长了12.9%，但与上一季度相比下降了3.8%。因此，5月10日TSMC发布的四月份收入较去年同期增长了20.9%令市场感到惊喜。</p><p>此外，公司表示，这相比去年同期的月度收入增长了59.3%。市场推断，Q2的收入可能会大幅增加。</p><p>因此，TSM股票一直在飙升。5月22日周三上午交易时，TSM股票报价为每股156.15美元。这比上个月底的137.34美元上涨了近14%，比4月19日其Q1财报发布前的最低点127.70美元高出逾22%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1485054831\">Barchart异常期权活动报告</h2><p>因此，今天的Barchart异常股票期权活动报告显示，大量认购期权合约在截至16天后的6月7日到期期间，以157.50美元行权价交易。</p><p>例如，报告显示，在这一水平上交易了超过6000份认购期权合约。成交量远高于同到期日其他行权价。‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL\" title=\"$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d808f7184f39028b7ab995195b529f81\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1578\"/></p><p>此外，这些认购期权的中间价格为4.4美元。这意味着认购期权的买方可能预计TSM股票将在未来两周内上涨到161.9美元以上（即157.50美元+4.4美元），比每股156美元高出近6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这是认购期权买方非常看涨的投资。毫无疑问，这可能是与今天公布的Nvidia收入有关的衍生投资。例如，如果Nvidia的收入大幅增长，这意味着TSM的收入将继续随着上行惊喜而上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_3929349253\">相对估值 </h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外，与Nvidia相比，TSM的盈利预测相对便宜。例如，Barchart的5位分析师的调查显示，今年每个ADR（美国存托凭证）的预测为6.13美元，明年为7.63美元。Seeking Alpha显示，今年平均为6.31美元，明年为7.87美元。这两个的平均值是今年6.22美元，明年7.75美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因此，从未来12个月的运行速度来看，我们可以说TSMC将在未来12个月内达到每个ADR 6.99美元的运行速度。这使得股票在156美元的价格上的NTM倍数仅为22.3倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这远低于其主要客户之一Nvidia的倍数。例如，NVDA股票的前瞻倍数介于29.7倍和37.6倍之间，或者在NTM基础上为33.65倍。这意味着TSM股票的估值仅为Nvidia的2/3。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因此，从交易者的角度来看，如果这两家公司的收入增长情况相同，这两家公司的估值应该最终会趋于一致。或者至少TSM股票的估值应该有所增加，以弥合差距。</p><h2 id=\"id_2857005477\">投资者应该买入认购期权还是卖出认购期权？ </h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">问题是 - 这在接下来的两周内是否真的会发生？这是这种认购期权必须为买方长期运作的期限。同时卖出认购期权可能是有意义的。这也是一种看涨的举动。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">例如，以今天的价格购买认购期权，并同时以157.50美元的行权价格或甚至更高的行权价格卖出认购期权，允许投资者获得资本收益。他们还可以收取卖出认购期权的收入。这对于每两周重复进行这种交易的投资者也具有吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在这种情况下，以当前收盘价格计算的潜在收益率为2.8%（即4.4美元/156.00美元）。在接下来的90天内，如果这可以重复进行，预期回报率（ER）将是2.79%的5倍到6倍，即13.95% - 16.74%。对于卖出带盖认购期权的投资者来说，收入还在TSM股票下跌时提供了一些下行保护。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">总之，TSM股票可能被低估了。玩这个的一种方法是要么买入认购期权，这是一种风险较高的方式，要么卖出covered call，这是一种风险较低的方式。</p><p><em>本文编译自Barchart，原文标题：Unusual Options Activity in Taiwan Semiconductor ADRs Today Highlight Its Value</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩爆发，台积电受惠，这只Call成交量狂飙</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩爆发，台积电受惠，这只Call成交量狂飙\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-23 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>上周， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 这家大型半导体制造公司发布了四月份收入意外增长的消息。因此，TSM股票的认购期权今天出现了异常活跃的情况，突显了其潜在价值。TSM直接受益于对云服务器和人工智能芯片的增加关注。</p><p>例如，TSMC是Nvidia（NVDA）设计的高性能GPU和特殊人工智能芯片的首选制造商，Nvidia今天发布了季度业绩。</p><h2 id=\"id_3197311808\">意外收入增长</h2><p>最近的报告对市场来说是一个意外。在4月18日，公司的Q1财报显示，尽管净收入同比增长了12.9%，但与上一季度相比下降了3.8%。因此，5月10日TSMC发布的四月份收入较去年同期增长了20.9%令市场感到惊喜。</p><p>此外，公司表示，这相比去年同期的月度收入增长了59.3%。市场推断，Q2的收入可能会大幅增加。</p><p>因此，TSM股票一直在飙升。5月22日周三上午交易时，TSM股票报价为每股156.15美元。这比上个月底的137.34美元上涨了近14%，比4月19日其Q1财报发布前的最低点127.70美元高出逾22%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1485054831\">Barchart异常期权活动报告</h2><p>因此，今天的Barchart异常股票期权活动报告显示，大量认购期权合约在截至16天后的6月7日到期期间，以157.50美元行权价交易。</p><p>例如，报告显示，在这一水平上交易了超过6000份认购期权合约。成交量远高于同到期日其他行权价。‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL\" title=\"$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d808f7184f39028b7ab995195b529f81\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1578\"/></p><p>此外，这些认购期权的中间价格为4.4美元。这意味着认购期权的买方可能预计TSM股票将在未来两周内上涨到161.9美元以上（即157.50美元+4.4美元），比每股156美元高出近6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这是认购期权买方非常看涨的投资。毫无疑问，这可能是与今天公布的Nvidia收入有关的衍生投资。例如，如果Nvidia的收入大幅增长，这意味着TSM的收入将继续随着上行惊喜而上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_3929349253\">相对估值 </h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外，与Nvidia相比，TSM的盈利预测相对便宜。例如，Barchart的5位分析师的调查显示，今年每个ADR（美国存托凭证）的预测为6.13美元，明年为7.63美元。Seeking Alpha显示，今年平均为6.31美元，明年为7.87美元。这两个的平均值是今年6.22美元，明年7.75美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因此，从未来12个月的运行速度来看，我们可以说TSMC将在未来12个月内达到每个ADR 6.99美元的运行速度。这使得股票在156美元的价格上的NTM倍数仅为22.3倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这远低于其主要客户之一Nvidia的倍数。例如，NVDA股票的前瞻倍数介于29.7倍和37.6倍之间，或者在NTM基础上为33.65倍。这意味着TSM股票的估值仅为Nvidia的2/3。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因此，从交易者的角度来看，如果这两家公司的收入增长情况相同，这两家公司的估值应该最终会趋于一致。或者至少TSM股票的估值应该有所增加，以弥合差距。</p><h2 id=\"id_2857005477\">投资者应该买入认购期权还是卖出认购期权？ </h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">问题是 - 这在接下来的两周内是否真的会发生？这是这种认购期权必须为买方长期运作的期限。同时卖出认购期权可能是有意义的。这也是一种看涨的举动。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">例如，以今天的价格购买认购期权，并同时以157.50美元的行权价格或甚至更高的行权价格卖出认购期权，允许投资者获得资本收益。他们还可以收取卖出认购期权的收入。这对于每两周重复进行这种交易的投资者也具有吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在这种情况下，以当前收盘价格计算的潜在收益率为2.8%（即4.4美元/156.00美元）。在接下来的90天内，如果这可以重复进行，预期回报率（ER）将是2.79%的5倍到6倍，即13.95% - 16.74%。对于卖出带盖认购期权的投资者来说，收入还在TSM股票下跌时提供了一些下行保护。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">总之，TSM股票可能被低估了。玩这个的一种方法是要么买入认购期权，这是一种风险较高的方式，要么卖出covered call，这是一种风险较低的方式。</p><p><em>本文编译自Barchart，原文标题：Unusual Options Activity in Taiwan Semiconductor ADRs Today Highlight Its Value</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178346757","content_text":"上周， 台积电 这家大型半导体制造公司发布了四月份收入意外增长的消息。因此，TSM股票的认购期权今天出现了异常活跃的情况，突显了其潜在价值。TSM直接受益于对云服务器和人工智能芯片的增加关注。例如，TSMC是Nvidia（NVDA）设计的高性能GPU和特殊人工智能芯片的首选制造商，Nvidia今天发布了季度业绩。意外收入增长最近的报告对市场来说是一个意外。在4月18日，公司的Q1财报显示，尽管净收入同比增长了12.9%，但与上一季度相比下降了3.8%。因此，5月10日TSMC发布的四月份收入较去年同期增长了20.9%令市场感到惊喜。此外，公司表示，这相比去年同期的月度收入增长了59.3%。市场推断，Q2的收入可能会大幅增加。因此，TSM股票一直在飙升。5月22日周三上午交易时，TSM股票报价为每股156.15美元。这比上个月底的137.34美元上涨了近14%，比4月19日其Q1财报发布前的最低点127.70美元高出逾22%。Barchart异常期权活动报告因此，今天的Barchart异常股票期权活动报告显示，大量认购期权合约在截至16天后的6月7日到期期间，以157.50美元行权价交易。例如，报告显示，在这一水平上交易了超过6000份认购期权合约。成交量远高于同到期日其他行权价。‌$TSM 20240607 157.5 CALL$  ‌此外，这些认购期权的中间价格为4.4美元。这意味着认购期权的买方可能预计TSM股票将在未来两周内上涨到161.9美元以上（即157.50美元+4.4美元），比每股156美元高出近6%。这是认购期权买方非常看涨的投资。毫无疑问，这可能是与今天公布的Nvidia收入有关的衍生投资。例如，如果Nvidia的收入大幅增长，这意味着TSM的收入将继续随着上行惊喜而上升。相对估值 此外，与Nvidia相比，TSM的盈利预测相对便宜。例如，Barchart的5位分析师的调查显示，今年每个ADR（美国存托凭证）的预测为6.13美元，明年为7.63美元。Seeking Alpha显示，今年平均为6.31美元，明年为7.87美元。这两个的平均值是今年6.22美元，明年7.75美元。因此，从未来12个月的运行速度来看，我们可以说TSMC将在未来12个月内达到每个ADR 6.99美元的运行速度。这使得股票在156美元的价格上的NTM倍数仅为22.3倍。这远低于其主要客户之一Nvidia的倍数。例如，NVDA股票的前瞻倍数介于29.7倍和37.6倍之间，或者在NTM基础上为33.65倍。这意味着TSM股票的估值仅为Nvidia的2/3。因此，从交易者的角度来看，如果这两家公司的收入增长情况相同，这两家公司的估值应该最终会趋于一致。或者至少TSM股票的估值应该有所增加，以弥合差距。投资者应该买入认购期权还是卖出认购期权？ 问题是 - 这在接下来的两周内是否真的会发生？这是这种认购期权必须为买方长期运作的期限。同时卖出认购期权可能是有意义的。这也是一种看涨的举动。例如，以今天的价格购买认购期权，并同时以157.50美元的行权价格或甚至更高的行权价格卖出认购期权，允许投资者获得资本收益。他们还可以收取卖出认购期权的收入。这对于每两周重复进行这种交易的投资者也具有吸引力。在这种情况下，以当前收盘价格计算的潜在收益率为2.8%（即4.4美元/156.00美元）。在接下来的90天内，如果这可以重复进行，预期回报率（ER）将是2.79%的5倍到6倍，即13.95% - 16.74%。对于卖出带盖认购期权的投资者来说，收入还在TSM股票下跌时提供了一些下行保护。总之，TSM股票可能被低估了。玩这个的一种方法是要么买入认购期权，这是一种风险较高的方式，要么卖出covered call，这是一种风险较低的方式。本文编译自Barchart，原文标题：Unusual Options Activity in Taiwan Semiconductor ADRs Today Highlight Its Value","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306474337124384,"gmtCreate":1715857407097,"gmtModify":1715857860579,"author":{"id":"3542163055568658","authorId":"3542163055568658","name":"nicegame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d283fd7836c72a00e4b7af1811a186","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT\">$XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT\">$XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了$XAB.HK 20240530 3.40 PUT$ 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