HolyMan的个人主页 - 老虎社区

HolyMan

HolyMan

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2021-10-05

第一周

@小虎活动:【收益率挑战】周周正收益，我是老虎大赢家！

2021-09-12

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$赶紧崩

2021-07-07

写了个啥啊(」゜ロ゜)」不敢苟同

油价暴涨暴跌，美债创半年新低，发生了什么？

2021-06-04

这种人能当首席经济家？一本正经的胡说八道

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-06

$迅雷(XNET)$突然想听上学威龙，迅雷牛逼

2020-01-16

$迅雷(XNET)$赶紧来一发翻倍吧，资金在这错过了蔚来错过了大麻……

2019-12-19

$迅雷(XNET)$等待现象级应用落地，最少得有个百亿市值吧，rmb

2019-12-13

$迅雷(XNET)$拉爆空头，一扫阴霾[得意][得意][财迷]

2019-11-15

$迅雷(XNET)$一夜回到解放前

2019-11-14

$迅雷(XNET)$一千股砸五个点？求不逗，多砸一点我捡一点便宜筹码

2019-11-12

$迅雷(XNET)$看了财报就过不了岗啦！今晚就要打老虎！多！肝！[丢脸]

2019-11-11

$迅雷(XNET)$还是看到18至20，低吸好机会，看空的就让我们互道一声珍重，买定离手！

2019-11-06

$迅雷(XNET)$今晚绝对大涨！

2019-11-05

$迅雷(XNET)$股票全靠庄家炒，赚钱都是韭菜送，今晚十点大阳线来一根！

2019-11-05

$法拉利(RACE)$当年不买破鞋，做race股东，现在不仅能开上马，还能赚一笔，人生真是充满了惊喜

2019-11-02

$迅雷(XNET)$错过最佳介入时机，今天凌晨看他越来越强，忍不住先入一点，后市看好，先看到18，我就是来投机的

2019-10-30

请问各位大佬，送拼多多股票的活动在哪领？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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15:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"油价暴涨暴跌，美债创半年新低，发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149395271","media":"格隆汇","summary":"供给侧已经开始不稳定。","content":"<p><b>近期国内债市相对平静，然而中国股市、海外市场波动非常大。</b></p>\n<p>7月6日中国股市深V，前期热门股票大幅调整，指数结构分化。</p>\n<p><b>更精彩的是夜盘，让很多报告撕了重写：原油价格暴涨之后暴跌</b>，不仅回吐OPEC分歧涨幅，<b>甚至跌回到一周前</b>；<b>铜价也是在两天反弹之后，回吐所有涨幅</b>；<b>美债则直接创半年新低</b>，10年美债收益率下降至1.35%。</p>\n<h3><b>油价近期上涨逻辑本就有问题</b></h3>\n<p>在解释油价暴跌之前，先解释油价为什么涨。<b>前几天油价上涨的直接原因是OPEC谈不拢，阿联酋希望增加自己的原油产量，然而OPEC不同意</b>，结果是产量维持上一次会议，全都不增加。</p>\n<p><b>这件事情本身就很有意思，OPEC是个限产联盟，限产联盟内部起冲突，结果反而是油价上涨。</b></p>\n<p>市场的主要逻辑是，<b>市场不相信阿联酋能够真的跟OPEC闹翻，所以冲突的结果是增产延期，油价上涨。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，这种上涨本身就忽略了一个问题：供给侧已经开始不稳定。</b></p>\n<p>事实上，这一轮大宗商品价格上涨，相当大程度上与供给侧收缩有关系。</p>\n<p><b>阿联酋跟OPEC吵架，标志着供给侧已经并非铁板一块。</b>当商品价格涨到暴利之时，供给侧的约束必然开始下降，只是以什么形式而已。</p>\n<p><b>在美国非制造业PMI公布之前，油价已经下跌，回吐OPEC分歧之前的所有涨幅，表明市场可能已经意识到炒作供给分歧有问题，或者开始担忧OPEC真正分裂的可能（各自增产）。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01288ec579117802b0fcf885b4e9a279\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图1 美国非制造业PMI公布之前，原油价格已经跌回去了</p>\n<p><b>此外，白宫新闻称，拜登正在与OPEC谈判，希望达成协议阻止油价上涨。</b></p>\n<p>这与2018年特朗普与沙特谈判如出一辙，高油价并非美国希望看到的：<b>美国当前通胀压力非常大，同时美国页岩油复产不利，美国并未从高油价受益。</b></p>\n<p><b>拜登的干预，可能同样类似2018年特朗普干预，奠定油价顶部。</b></p>\n<h3><b>美国非制造业PMI远不及预期，需求侧担忧重现</b></h3>\n<p><b>美国ISM非制造业PMI公布，仅为60.1，远低于前值64和市场预期63.5。</b>其中，新订单、商业活动、就业指数均明显下行，特别是就业指数从55.3下行至49.3，跌破50荣枯线，反映美国就业改善并不及预期。</p>\n<p><b>结合非农就业数据看，6月失业率仍然为5.9%的高位，且高于5月。</b>无论怎么解释劳动参与率和主动离职，总失业率仍高，是不争的事实，且并未看到加速改善，反而似乎已经半年没有实质进展。</p>\n<p><b>疫情前，美国失业率仅为3.5%左右，目前在6%左右，美国经济畸形可见一斑：</b>一边是商品价格飙涨，房价飙涨，另一边则是失业率处于历史高位，贸易逆差连续创纪录。</p>\n<p><b>很多人说中国滞胀，实际上美国才真的是滞胀。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15847d6952c69ff9f86096e9853c0029\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图2 美国失业率仍远高于疫情前</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/512b2f16eeed53524eff7d3f756244c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图3 美国制造业、非制造业PMI均下行</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，原油跌、铜跌、美债收益率下的时间早于非制造业PMI公布，如前所述，我们认为主要因为市场开始意识到炒作“OPEC内部冲突导致油价”有问题，导致通胀预期下行。</p>\n<p>在非制造业PMI公布之后，市场又开始担忧需求侧，加剧下行趋势。</p>\n<p><b>总体上看，我们认为，夜盘变化的核心是，市场从关注OPEC的供给端，变为关注需求端，全球复苏担忧再次主导海外市场。</b></p>\n<h3><b>美债下行主因实际利率下行</b></h3>\n<p>美债此轮下行与6月中旬美联储议息会议时期并不相同，从结构看，<b>近期的美债收益率下行与通胀预期无关，主要是美债实际利率下行，即对经济增长担忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ab8b27c77264fbb67a5da06e95ca44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图4 美债收益率下行的两阶段</p>\n<p><b>5月以来的美债收益率下行可以清晰地分成两阶段：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>第一阶段，美债通胀预期下行，主要与铜价拐头向下有关</b>\n <b>。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>第二阶段，美债实际利率下行，</b>从美联储6月议息会议短暂冲高之后，一路下行，目前已经下行至2月以来最低点。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>从美债隐含的预期来看，一方面，通胀预期已经见顶回落，另一方面，对于全球经济已经开始出现担忧。</b></p>\n<p>从美国经济数据看，除非制造业PMI远不及预期之外，还有<b>消费数据边际走弱、房地产数据出现分化</b>等等。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>美国很多州已经提前结束疫情补贴，拜登的基建计划一砍再砍</b>，对全球经济担忧并不是空穴来风。</p>\n<p><b>从美债看，这应该是跟市场预期差异最大的品种，市场普遍预期美债收益率上行至2%甚至更高，然而美债收益率却一路下行至半年新低。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，中债也会如此。</b>目前市场看空中债情绪仍重，但大概率会同样超市场预期。</p>\n<h3><b>继续看好中债，十年国债必破3%</b></h3>\n<p>回到中国债市，最近市场波动非常小，3.08%左右的十年国债已经震荡了两周，在5月前低略高一些的位置陷入僵局。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f680d04dbf9fd931e02fd6f3048e16d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图5 中国债券收益率短期陷入僵局</p>\n<p><b>空头的逻辑主要是：第N次担忧通胀，第N次担忧地方债供给，第N次担忧资金面，以及一直认为的韧性，经济不会明显下行。</b></p>\n<p><b>空头的逻辑实际在3月以来，每个月都会出现一遍，然后提供债市买点，然后收益率下行。</b></p>\n<p><b>多头的逻辑其实在变多：</b></p>\n<p><b>一方面，</b>央行维稳资金面意图越来越明确，7月生日之后如果仍未出现市场担忧的资金利率趋势上行，那么空头的逻辑将再次被证伪，<b>R007在2.2%政策利率左右，是长期而不是短期的，将成为市场共识；</b></p>\n<p><b>另一方面，基本面的利好在逐渐增多。</b></p>\n<p><b>从国内看，</b>挖掘机、重卡、汽车销量均明显走弱，PMI连续下行，消费并未见明显起色；</p>\n<p><b>从国外看，</b>担忧全球经济复苏的声音已经开始出现，并已经反映在铜价跌（与中国经济更相关）、美债收益率下行。</p>\n<p><b>我们认为，中国债市将在三季度破局，十年国债收益率将有效突破3%。</b></p>\n<p>维持年底十年国债收益率2.8-2.9%的判断不变，<b>维持今年3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变。</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价暴涨暴跌，美债创半年新低，发生了什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价暴涨暴跌，美债创半年新低，发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 15:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473944><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期国内债市相对平静，然而中国股市、海外市场波动非常大。\n7月6日中国股市深V，前期热门股票大幅调整，指数结构分化。\n更精彩的是夜盘，让很多报告撕了重写：原油价格暴涨之后暴跌，不仅回吐OPEC分歧涨幅，甚至跌回到一周前；铜价也是在两天反弹之后，回吐所有涨幅；美债则直接创半年新低，10年美债收益率下降至1.35%。\n油价近期上涨逻辑本就有问题\n在解释油价暴跌之前，先解释油价为什么涨。前几天油价上涨的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473944\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473944","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2149395271","content_text":"近期国内债市相对平静，然而中国股市、海外市场波动非常大。\n7月6日中国股市深V，前期热门股票大幅调整，指数结构分化。\n更精彩的是夜盘，让很多报告撕了重写：原油价格暴涨之后暴跌，不仅回吐OPEC分歧涨幅，甚至跌回到一周前；铜价也是在两天反弹之后，回吐所有涨幅；美债则直接创半年新低，10年美债收益率下降至1.35%。\n油价近期上涨逻辑本就有问题\n在解释油价暴跌之前，先解释油价为什么涨。前几天油价上涨的直接原因是OPEC谈不拢，阿联酋希望增加自己的原油产量，然而OPEC不同意，结果是产量维持上一次会议，全都不增加。\n这件事情本身就很有意思，OPEC是个限产联盟，限产联盟内部起冲突，结果反而是油价上涨。\n市场的主要逻辑是，市场不相信阿联酋能够真的跟OPEC闹翻，所以冲突的结果是增产延期，油价上涨。\n我们认为，这种上涨本身就忽略了一个问题：供给侧已经开始不稳定。\n事实上，这一轮大宗商品价格上涨，相当大程度上与供给侧收缩有关系。\n阿联酋跟OPEC吵架，标志着供给侧已经并非铁板一块。当商品价格涨到暴利之时，供给侧的约束必然开始下降，只是以什么形式而已。\n在美国非制造业PMI公布之前，油价已经下跌，回吐OPEC分歧之前的所有涨幅，表明市场可能已经意识到炒作供给分歧有问题，或者开始担忧OPEC真正分裂的可能（各自增产）。\n\n图1 美国非制造业PMI公布之前，原油价格已经跌回去了\n此外，白宫新闻称，拜登正在与OPEC谈判，希望达成协议阻止油价上涨。\n这与2018年特朗普与沙特谈判如出一辙，高油价并非美国希望看到的：美国当前通胀压力非常大，同时美国页岩油复产不利，美国并未从高油价受益。\n拜登的干预，可能同样类似2018年特朗普干预，奠定油价顶部。\n美国非制造业PMI远不及预期，需求侧担忧重现\n美国ISM非制造业PMI公布，仅为60.1，远低于前值64和市场预期63.5。其中，新订单、商业活动、就业指数均明显下行，特别是就业指数从55.3下行至49.3，跌破50荣枯线，反映美国就业改善并不及预期。\n结合非农就业数据看，6月失业率仍然为5.9%的高位，且高于5月。无论怎么解释劳动参与率和主动离职，总失业率仍高，是不争的事实，且并未看到加速改善，反而似乎已经半年没有实质进展。\n疫情前，美国失业率仅为3.5%左右，目前在6%左右，美国经济畸形可见一斑：一边是商品价格飙涨，房价飙涨，另一边则是失业率处于历史高位，贸易逆差连续创纪录。\n很多人说中国滞胀，实际上美国才真的是滞胀。\n\n图2 美国失业率仍远高于疫情前\n\n图3 美国制造业、非制造业PMI均下行\n值得注意的是，原油跌、铜跌、美债收益率下的时间早于非制造业PMI公布，如前所述，我们认为主要因为市场开始意识到炒作“OPEC内部冲突导致油价”有问题，导致通胀预期下行。\n在非制造业PMI公布之后，市场又开始担忧需求侧，加剧下行趋势。\n总体上看，我们认为，夜盘变化的核心是，市场从关注OPEC的供给端，变为关注需求端，全球复苏担忧再次主导海外市场。\n美债下行主因实际利率下行\n美债此轮下行与6月中旬美联储议息会议时期并不相同，从结构看，近期的美债收益率下行与通胀预期无关，主要是美债实际利率下行，即对经济增长担忧。\n\n图4 美债收益率下行的两阶段\n5月以来的美债收益率下行可以清晰地分成两阶段：\n\n第一阶段，美债通胀预期下行，主要与铜价拐头向下有关\n。\n\n\n第二阶段，美债实际利率下行，从美联储6月议息会议短暂冲高之后，一路下行，目前已经下行至2月以来最低点。\n\n从美债隐含的预期来看，一方面，通胀预期已经见顶回落，另一方面，对于全球经济已经开始出现担忧。\n从美国经济数据看，除非制造业PMI远不及预期之外，还有消费数据边际走弱、房地产数据出现分化等等。\n同时，美国很多州已经提前结束疫情补贴，拜登的基建计划一砍再砍，对全球经济担忧并不是空穴来风。\n从美债看，这应该是跟市场预期差异最大的品种，市场普遍预期美债收益率上行至2%甚至更高，然而美债收益率却一路下行至半年新低。\n我们认为，中债也会如此。目前市场看空中债情绪仍重，但大概率会同样超市场预期。\n继续看好中债，十年国债必破3%\n回到中国债市，最近市场波动非常小，3.08%左右的十年国债已经震荡了两周，在5月前低略高一些的位置陷入僵局。\n\n图5 中国债券收益率短期陷入僵局\n空头的逻辑主要是：第N次担忧通胀，第N次担忧地方债供给，第N次担忧资金面，以及一直认为的韧性，经济不会明显下行。\n空头的逻辑实际在3月以来，每个月都会出现一遍，然后提供债市买点，然后收益率下行。\n多头的逻辑其实在变多：\n一方面，央行维稳资金面意图越来越明确，7月生日之后如果仍未出现市场担忧的资金利率趋势上行，那么空头的逻辑将再次被证伪，R007在2.2%政策利率左右，是长期而不是短期的，将成为市场共识；\n另一方面，基本面的利好在逐渐增多。\n从国内看，挖掘机、重卡、汽车销量均明显走弱，PMI连续下行，消费并未见明显起色；\n从国外看，担忧全球经济复苏的声音已经开始出现，并已经反映在铜价跌（与中国经济更相关）、美债收益率下行。\n我们认为，中国债市将在三季度破局，十年国债收益率将有效突破3%。\n维持年底十年国债收益率2.8-2.9%的判断不变，维持今年3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":118756517,"gmtCreate":1622763434539,"gmtModify":1622763434539,"author":{"id":"3535352089886233","authorId":"3535352089886233","name":"HolyMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f38c1eb3f06cc9a8ee8fa9d36aa34","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535352089886233","authorIdStr":"3535352089886233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这种人能当首席经济家？一本正经的胡说八道","listText":"这种人能当首席经济家？一本正经的胡说八道","text":"这种人能当首席经济家？一本正经的胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118756517","repostId":"1128804119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981396641,"gmtCreate":1583505635283,"gmtModify":1704350108636,"author":{"id":"3535352089886233","authorId":"3535352089886233","name":"HolyMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f38c1eb3f06cc9a8ee8fa9d36aa34","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535352089886233","authorIdStr":"3535352089886233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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