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飞雪迎春_1466
2022-10-30
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
抱歉,原内容已删除
飞雪迎春_1466
2020-09-16
跟随高领资本。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百亿私募大佬“私信”曝光,亲历了从业“最困难时光”后,他悟到了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-10-29 17:32 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资组合需要针对性的变化适应2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌,所管理的产品净值回撤显著。甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”,和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。林鹏此前是公募东方红的“扛把子”,2017年公募基金冠军。2年前他创立私募机构和谐汇一,近两年亲历市场大幅的波动。近日,林鹏致信持有人称:过去两年对他这样的偏价值风格的投资人是非常艰难的,这是他从业20多年来最...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150415635","content_text":"投资组合需要针对性的变化适应2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌,所管理的产品净值回撤显著。甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”,和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。林鹏此前是公募东方红的“扛把子”,2017年公募基金冠军。2年前他创立私募机构和谐汇一,近两年亲历市场大幅的波动。近日,林鹏致信持有人称:过去两年对他这样的偏价值风格的投资人是非常艰难的,这是他从业20多年来最困难的时光。经历了这样的困难时光后,他对投资体系做了深刻反思,也有了许多新的领悟:比如,投资不应该有浓重的信仰,信仰有时候可能是错误的,而投资需要妥协。再比如,长期来看,股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值,当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。同时林鹏亦指出,凡是资产都有价格,只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的,它一定会有人买,即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台。所以,他始终认为坚持对企业的深度研究,选择能够长期存在、长期发展,并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。还有许多深层次的总结和体会,都在下文。“心灵被拷问”林鹏在信中指出:在相当长的时间,他感觉一直处于“心灵被拷问”的状态。过去一直投资他理解的最优秀的公司,并陪伴它们成长,也因此收获了比较好的投资收益。但这两年整个市场因经济、疫情等因素的影响出现了巨大的波动或分化现象,原来对好公司好价格的评判标准似乎失灵了,具有良好基本面的优秀公司如果没有处于某些核心赛道,那么迎接它的就是跌跌不休的股价。林鹏还特别谈及对投资信仰的思考:“投资不应该有浓重的信仰,信仰有时候可能是错误的,但我始终认为坚持对企业的深度研究,选择能够长期存在、长期发展,并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。”“长期来看,投资最终是企业未来现金流的折现,股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值,当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。”总结后的林鹏,对“时间期限”和“妥协”的重要性有了更多的体会。在他看来:投资也需要有一定妥协,我们的资金属性毕竟是有一定期限的,我们也没有形成足够长时间的私募投资业绩,让我们的客户能始终相信并跟随我们,因此投资组合需要有针对性的变化和适应。反思港股投资林鹏在信中透露,他投资组合的回撤主要来自两大块:一方面是港股互联网公司的投资;另一方面是他研究得最清晰的、投入研究力度最大的、实质上基本面非常良好的消费电子公司。他指出了其中思维模式的根源:“我们过去习惯于用‘逆向思考’、‘均值回归’的方式去捕捉优质公司错杀的机会,这在大部分环境下是适用的。但放在这两年各项政策频出、黑天鹅事件不断出现的市场环境下,均值回归就可能产生非常大的偏离,这一点尤其体现在港股的投资上。”比如说美国通胀这个问题,去年底的时候很难预判到美债收益率可以一度到达4.25%,这对港股的影响是相当之大的。由此逻辑出发,他提出了港股投资的反思。要放下“均值回归过度的执念”以及“对宏观政策层面不够敏感”,在心理上、行为上对组合的风险管理,对于可能的极端风险做足预案。同时,他亦表示,虽然不能判断未来港股市场是否还会有系统性的冲击(后者取决于“人性的复杂”)。但他相信,凡是资产都有价格,只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的,它一定会有人买,即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台。从业这么多年来看,凡是偏离的事情一定会弹回来,没有什么“这次不一样”。就像橡皮筋,你稍微拉一些,它缓和地回弹回去。你拉得非常满,它就会非常快速地弹回去。未来投资策略林鹏透露,和谐汇一的产品仓位维持在一个中高的水平,坚持行业分散、个股集中,同时力图保持各方面在一个相对比较均衡的架构。A股投资主要布局在数字经济、消费电子、汽车零部件、光伏、基础化工、交通运输等方面;在港股的投资,主要集中在互联网、体育服饰、食品饮料、创新药等。林鹏指出:股票指数是多重博弈,宏观、政策等都很难精准预判,几乎没有投资人是完全靠研判政策来实现长期业绩的,但我们通过引入宏观策略研究员以提高对宏观、产业政策的敏感度,希望可以更好实现风险控制。他还对持有人称:他投资看的可能相对“超前”,而商业模式和技术进步在短期内都不会产生很大变化,因而我们布局的公司股价今年表现不尽如人意。但人无远虑,必有近忧,优秀的企业更多体现在它可以走得更长远、更稳健,而基本面相对较差的企业可能今年过得还不错,但过几年可能因竞争格局恶化而导致盈利能力下降。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}