SPCTrading的个人主页 - 老虎社区

SPCTrading

SPCTrading

想开点，不惧失去，才能拥有。

IP属地：海外

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2022-02-09

通篇废话，刚入门吧

夜读 | 投资的本质是认知的变现

2020-10-21

$赫兹(HTZ)$满仓加杠杆上

2020-09-25

$西方石油(OXY)$明灯呢？快出来说话等着反向操作

2020-09-23

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$稳住，猛冲

2020-09-22

$Roku Inc(ROKU)$打下来

2020-09-18

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$抄你个大西瓜

2019-11-22

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$满仓➕杠杆上上上

2019-11-20

$拼多多(PDD)$好东西

2019-11-19

$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$还差46亿等你好消息

2019-11-19

$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$玩不玩

2019-11-12

$迈克德莫特国际(MDR)$再次证明美股不能扛单

2019-10-14

$Yuma Energy, Inc.(YUMA)$狠狠的上跳

2019-10-09

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$日你爹，我只要腰斩你就变脸，白亏一万刀，早知道给兄弟们当个风向标！

2019-10-08

我恨啊昨晚刚刚腰斩了put 今天就这样白白亏损一万刀[流泪][流泪][流泪]

2019-10-03

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$今天的中概强的不像中概，是给国庆面子嘛？

2019-10-02

$苹果(AAPL)$少了

2019-10-02

$拼多多(PDD)$就看你还能硬几天

2019-10-02

$苹果(AAPL)$这么快

2019-10-02

$The Stars Group Inc.(TSG)$加拿大线上赌场，有搞头

2019-10-02

$拼多多(PDD)$明天应该要跌测试指标

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21:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 投资的本质是认知的变现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172955355","media":"金十数据","summary":"投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。</p><p>一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。</p><p>投资的本质是认知的变现</p><p>前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为认知变现。今晚跟在上市公司做并购的老友吃饭，又谈到这一话题，觉得还是有进一步思考的空间，因此在此从以下几个方面做一些简单总结，跟各位探讨。</p><p>一、投资即决策</p><p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：<b>投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。</b></p><p>一人一世界，每个人看到的世界都是不一样的，每个人对同一投资机会的认知也分不同的维度，不同维度的认知意味着各自完全不同的胜率选择。没有高确定性为前提的高赔率，是赌博。但市场普遍认知到的高确定性，在通常情况下又不可能给你高赔率。所以问题的本质其实是你是否有超越市场大多数人的认知，适时的判断出市场的错误定价，以高胜率去做高赔率的决策。</p><p>马云所说的，任何一次机会的到来，都必将经历四个阶段：<b>「看不见」、「看不起」、「看不懂」、「来不及」，也是同样的逻辑。</b></p><p>二、认知是多维度的</p><p>成功的投资需要完整的体系支撑，多维度的认知可以从不同的层面优化你投资体系的胜率和赔率指标。比如对行业和企业经营的认知：<b>行业空间、竞争格局、价值链分布、核心竞争力、增长驱动因素</b>等；交易系统的认知：<b>仓位管理、风险管理等；投资思维的认知：安全边际、复利等。</b></p><p>当然，不同人在整个体系的不同环节的认知能力是有差异的，需要选择性的修炼边际收益最高的部分，也可以通过团队合作让自己的某一部分优质认知最大程度上发挥价值。</p><p>三、投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱</p><p>知道和相信之间有很大的距离，而真正的认知是相信，甚至信仰，我们先看几个数字：</p><blockquote>a、王者荣耀刷遍朋友圈，我相信大部分人都知道，但截止到今天，腾讯股价今年的涨幅是72.3%，涨幅超越绝大多数资产的收益率，而绝大多数人也只是感慨下腾讯好厉害而已；</blockquote><blockquote>b、相信大多数人通过各种渠道学习了很多关于google、亚马逊、Facebook、苹果、腾讯、阿里巴巴等这些明星公司的核心竞争力、企业文化、商业模式、创始人风格等各方面的知识，都知道他们很牛，但如果把六支股票做一个组合去复盘，过去三年的年化的平均回报也高达百分之好几十；</blockquote><p>这些现象背后移动互联网对人们生活方式、商业模式的深刻改变，新生一代的消费习惯的升级等原因，我们大多数人都知道，但能否真正的从知道到相信，进一步转化为可以投资的认知，则少之又少。</p><p>四、如何提高从认知到投资的转化率</p><p>对于我们大多数非专业投资人来讲，对于自己所从事多年的行业认知水平肯定是超越市场上大多数的人，因此对多年在某种特定行业中的积累、独特认知和趋势判断放在投资的视角思考，完全可以把这种深度认知轻松变形。</p><p>比如，「2010年google退出中国，很容易判断最大的收益方是百度，事实上百度那一年股价确实翻倍了。比如爱玩游戏的人可以关注暴雪，了解手机行业的人可以关注高通，从事k12的人可以关注学而思、新东方。」</p><p>我一直说，在过去的6-7年时间里面，除了一线城市的房价（是否参与的背后也是认知的差异），我们还错过了两拨超过10倍的投资机会。</p><p>一次是智能手机从10%不到的渗透率提高到65%的浪潮（2010-2013年中），相关产业链的公司都是动辄几倍的涨幅，其中生产触摸屏的欧菲光短短一年上涨近10倍；</p><p>另外一波是智能手机渗透率超过65%之后带来的移动互联网浪潮，在一二级市场都雨后春笋般的出现了大量高效率的投资机会，其中变现最快、同时也跟大多数人的生活紧密相关的手游行业规模短短4年时间就增长了10倍（2012年-2016年从60亿左右增长到了600多亿），其中诞生的牛股就不言而喻， 一直到今天的王者荣耀。</p><p>相信，这两拨大的浪潮和机会绝大多数的80后、90后都是亲身经历、感同身受，因此如果你把这种身边的熟知现象，工作中对行业的积累通过深度思考转为真正的认知，再通过投资工具实现变现，那就是属于你的投资机会。</p><p>当然，创业也属于认知变现的范畴，李善友曾说，创始人的认知边界是企业真正的边界，只是其要求更高，除了需要具备超越市场的认知外，还需要战略、组织等一系列综合能力。</p><p>而投资，特别是二级市场的投资，其交易成本基本可以忽略不计，是大多数人认知变现最佳的路径。一级市场投资门槛更高，交易成本也更为复杂。</p><p>当然，真正的如何全方位的提高认知能力又是一个宏大的话题，下次有机会再探讨。</p><p>附其他几点认识：</p><p>公司研究的核心是空间、结构、深度、角度；交易策略的核心是概率、赔率和预期差；投资体系的核心是对象，时机，力度；而投资最本质的核心是价值、安全边际和复利。这几个环节是同心圆，越后面的越靠内环。</p><p>内环决定战略和原则，外环确定策略和技术；内环是道，外环是术；内环解决了What和Why，外环实现了落地的How；内环不牢靠是闷头乱撞，外环不扎实是夸夸其谈。</p><p>市场的高波动不代表高风险，反之市场的平静也不等于均衡。</p><p>公司的不确定性到底来自哪里？我想主要是：</p><blockquote>1、未来市场需求与当前预期之间的差异；</blockquote><blockquote>2、公司战略制定及执行过程中出现的问题；</blockquote><blockquote>3、对经营产生重要影响的各种不可控因素（如原材料波动，汇率波动，政策重大变化，颠覆性技术革新等）；</blockquote><blockquote>4、竞争烈度的大幅提升；</blockquote><blockquote>5、随着时间的拉长使一切事物不可控进而不可测。</blockquote><p>对于上述一到三的对策，其实是解铃还须系铃人。优秀的企业家和管理团队是提升这三项确定性的根本依靠；对于四，更重要的是生意属性上的根本特征，已非简单事在人为的范畴；对于五，<b>唯一需要的就是对生命周期的敬畏和对安全边际的重视，其应对本质已在企业自身之外。</b></p><p>投资人的主动性努力不外乎以下几点：</p><blockquote>第一，寻找中长期经营提升确定性高的企业；</blockquote><blockquote>第二，寻求中短期赔率好的价格；</blockquote><blockquote>第三，构建能平衡黑天鹅风险和研究的有效回报的投资组合；</blockquote><blockquote>第四，持续学习争取每年进步一点点；</blockquote><blockquote>第五，保持身心健康，做好以上循环并耐心等待。</blockquote><p>其它的，基本就交给国运了。</p><p>资产配置的重要性有多大？我觉得：</p><blockquote>第一，它是重要的，但它一定是在一个长期的刻度上才显示出这种优势；</blockquote><blockquote>第二，所谓的配置一定要有足够的力度才有效果，优质的配置机会但你只配了很轻的资产，也没什么意义；</blockquote><blockquote>第三，资产配置本身并不必然导致升值，它是分担风险，这两者区别很大。</blockquote><blockquote>最后，配置的重要性与单一资产的规模成正比，大部分的人问题不是配置而是规模。</blockquote><p>繁荣总是静悄悄的发生，而灾难总是在大吵大闹中降临。</p><p>市场时刻都热点繁多，新闻每天都有惊悚头条，但咱做投资的真要有点儿满清太祖那「任尔几路来我只一路去」的劲头。</p><p>与真实的价值为伍，站在概率和赔率的有利面，透彻理解并执行复利法则，其它的何必管它那么多？大多数的所谓对策都没有存在的必要，大部分刺激的新闻都与投资没关系。其实过度的关注反映的是内心的焦虑，这是种病，而且不好治。</p><p>投资成长中有两个临界点，在第一个临界点之前是艰辛的学习，用勤奋都不足以描述，简直是废寝忘食的恶补。完成这个阶段的时间因人而异，但1万小时定律是最起码的。</p><p>过了这个基础临界点后，反思和质疑开始产生价值（之前别瞎反思），实践和总结推动着越过第二个临界点，但悟性和天资可能让一些人永远翻不过去。两次质变之后，将开始享受学习积累和资产积累的双重复利。</p><p>理性让世界有序，感性让世界多彩。理性让我们区别于动物，感性让人区别于机器。理性催生了科学，感性孕育了艺术。理性可以培养和训练，感性多是自然的萌发。失去理性很难美好的生活，失去感性很难拥有真正的生命。</p><p>投资的窍门就是巧方法+笨功夫。</p><p>巧方法是指方法论体系，让你事半功倍，做到高效聪明的整合信息碎片形成完整认识；笨功夫，就是踏踏实实花时间花精力一点点去阅读、搜集和积累。</p><p>市场里80%的人被笨功夫这层就淘汰了，基本失去超额收益的入围资格。剩下的又有一半儿被巧方法挡住了，原地打转收益与付出无法匹配。所以相当赢家，既要甘于「笨」又要善于「巧」。</p><p>总有朋友对我说：看你每天晃来晃去的，投资就那么轻松啥都不用干？</p><p>我说当然不是，只不过我们工作的形态不同。一般工作的繁忙很容易识别，但投资工作其实就是三件事：学习、思考、做决定。除了学习研究是较容易看到的，更重要的「思考」和「做决定」完全可以一点儿外在表现都没有，但其实它们才是最重要的可积累无形资产。</p><p>职业投资人的社交很单纯，不需要维系多余的社会关系。在主动筛选后能沉淀下来的是三种人：</p><blockquote>第一种是有料。某一方面的学识好，能弥补自己的知识短板开拓思维，与之交流有益；</blockquote><blockquote>第二种是有趣。或风趣豁达或古灵精怪，与之交往总能给生活带来一抹亮色；</blockquote><blockquote>第三种是有品。就是能信任靠得住，价值观相近可坦率的说心里话。当然如果能多条兼顾，自然是交友的精品。</blockquote><p>投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱。往小了说，对一个公司没有充分的信心，最多只能赚到财务数据直接相关的那点儿钱，再远点长点的钱是不可能赚到的。</p><p>往大了说，对国家未来从心底悲观，那么最多赚到几个波段的小聪明的钱，要赚大钱也很难了。格局、历史感这些东西在99%的时候都很虚，但在1%的重要决策时刻往往就是强大信念的真正支撑点。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 投资的本质是认知的变现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 21:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。投资的本质是认知的变现前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172955355","content_text":"投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。投资的本质是认知的变现前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为认知变现。今晚跟在上市公司做并购的老友吃饭，又谈到这一话题，觉得还是有进一步思考的空间，因此在此从以下几个方面做一些简单总结，跟各位探讨。一、投资即决策投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一人一世界，每个人看到的世界都是不一样的，每个人对同一投资机会的认知也分不同的维度，不同维度的认知意味着各自完全不同的胜率选择。没有高确定性为前提的高赔率，是赌博。但市场普遍认知到的高确定性，在通常情况下又不可能给你高赔率。所以问题的本质其实是你是否有超越市场大多数人的认知，适时的判断出市场的错误定价，以高胜率去做高赔率的决策。马云所说的，任何一次机会的到来，都必将经历四个阶段：「看不见」、「看不起」、「看不懂」、「来不及」，也是同样的逻辑。二、认知是多维度的成功的投资需要完整的体系支撑，多维度的认知可以从不同的层面优化你投资体系的胜率和赔率指标。比如对行业和企业经营的认知：行业空间、竞争格局、价值链分布、核心竞争力、增长驱动因素等；交易系统的认知：仓位管理、风险管理等；投资思维的认知：安全边际、复利等。当然，不同人在整个体系的不同环节的认知能力是有差异的，需要选择性的修炼边际收益最高的部分，也可以通过团队合作让自己的某一部分优质认知最大程度上发挥价值。三、投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱知道和相信之间有很大的距离，而真正的认知是相信，甚至信仰，我们先看几个数字：a、王者荣耀刷遍朋友圈，我相信大部分人都知道，但截止到今天，腾讯股价今年的涨幅是72.3%，涨幅超越绝大多数资产的收益率，而绝大多数人也只是感慨下腾讯好厉害而已；b、相信大多数人通过各种渠道学习了很多关于google、亚马逊、Facebook、苹果、腾讯、阿里巴巴等这些明星公司的核心竞争力、企业文化、商业模式、创始人风格等各方面的知识，都知道他们很牛，但如果把六支股票做一个组合去复盘，过去三年的年化的平均回报也高达百分之好几十；这些现象背后移动互联网对人们生活方式、商业模式的深刻改变，新生一代的消费习惯的升级等原因，我们大多数人都知道，但能否真正的从知道到相信，进一步转化为可以投资的认知，则少之又少。四、如何提高从认知到投资的转化率对于我们大多数非专业投资人来讲，对于自己所从事多年的行业认知水平肯定是超越市场上大多数的人，因此对多年在某种特定行业中的积累、独特认知和趋势判断放在投资的视角思考，完全可以把这种深度认知轻松变形。比如，「2010年google退出中国，很容易判断最大的收益方是百度，事实上百度那一年股价确实翻倍了。比如爱玩游戏的人可以关注暴雪，了解手机行业的人可以关注高通，从事k12的人可以关注学而思、新东方。」我一直说，在过去的6-7年时间里面，除了一线城市的房价（是否参与的背后也是认知的差异），我们还错过了两拨超过10倍的投资机会。一次是智能手机从10%不到的渗透率提高到65%的浪潮（2010-2013年中），相关产业链的公司都是动辄几倍的涨幅，其中生产触摸屏的欧菲光短短一年上涨近10倍；另外一波是智能手机渗透率超过65%之后带来的移动互联网浪潮，在一二级市场都雨后春笋般的出现了大量高效率的投资机会，其中变现最快、同时也跟大多数人的生活紧密相关的手游行业规模短短4年时间就增长了10倍（2012年-2016年从60亿左右增长到了600多亿），其中诞生的牛股就不言而喻， 一直到今天的王者荣耀。相信，这两拨大的浪潮和机会绝大多数的80后、90后都是亲身经历、感同身受，因此如果你把这种身边的熟知现象，工作中对行业的积累通过深度思考转为真正的认知，再通过投资工具实现变现，那就是属于你的投资机会。当然，创业也属于认知变现的范畴，李善友曾说，创始人的认知边界是企业真正的边界，只是其要求更高，除了需要具备超越市场的认知外，还需要战略、组织等一系列综合能力。而投资，特别是二级市场的投资，其交易成本基本可以忽略不计，是大多数人认知变现最佳的路径。一级市场投资门槛更高，交易成本也更为复杂。当然，真正的如何全方位的提高认知能力又是一个宏大的话题，下次有机会再探讨。附其他几点认识：公司研究的核心是空间、结构、深度、角度；交易策略的核心是概率、赔率和预期差；投资体系的核心是对象，时机，力度；而投资最本质的核心是价值、安全边际和复利。这几个环节是同心圆，越后面的越靠内环。内环决定战略和原则，外环确定策略和技术；内环是道，外环是术；内环解决了What和Why，外环实现了落地的How；内环不牢靠是闷头乱撞，外环不扎实是夸夸其谈。市场的高波动不代表高风险，反之市场的平静也不等于均衡。公司的不确定性到底来自哪里？我想主要是：1、未来市场需求与当前预期之间的差异；2、公司战略制定及执行过程中出现的问题；3、对经营产生重要影响的各种不可控因素（如原材料波动，汇率波动，政策重大变化，颠覆性技术革新等）；4、竞争烈度的大幅提升；5、随着时间的拉长使一切事物不可控进而不可测。对于上述一到三的对策，其实是解铃还须系铃人。优秀的企业家和管理团队是提升这三项确定性的根本依靠；对于四，更重要的是生意属性上的根本特征，已非简单事在人为的范畴；对于五，唯一需要的就是对生命周期的敬畏和对安全边际的重视，其应对本质已在企业自身之外。投资人的主动性努力不外乎以下几点：第一，寻找中长期经营提升确定性高的企业；第二，寻求中短期赔率好的价格；第三，构建能平衡黑天鹅风险和研究的有效回报的投资组合；第四，持续学习争取每年进步一点点；第五，保持身心健康，做好以上循环并耐心等待。其它的，基本就交给国运了。资产配置的重要性有多大？我觉得：第一，它是重要的，但它一定是在一个长期的刻度上才显示出这种优势；第二，所谓的配置一定要有足够的力度才有效果，优质的配置机会但你只配了很轻的资产，也没什么意义；第三，资产配置本身并不必然导致升值，它是分担风险，这两者区别很大。最后，配置的重要性与单一资产的规模成正比，大部分的人问题不是配置而是规模。繁荣总是静悄悄的发生，而灾难总是在大吵大闹中降临。市场时刻都热点繁多，新闻每天都有惊悚头条，但咱做投资的真要有点儿满清太祖那「任尔几路来我只一路去」的劲头。与真实的价值为伍，站在概率和赔率的有利面，透彻理解并执行复利法则，其它的何必管它那么多？大多数的所谓对策都没有存在的必要，大部分刺激的新闻都与投资没关系。其实过度的关注反映的是内心的焦虑，这是种病，而且不好治。投资成长中有两个临界点，在第一个临界点之前是艰辛的学习，用勤奋都不足以描述，简直是废寝忘食的恶补。完成这个阶段的时间因人而异，但1万小时定律是最起码的。过了这个基础临界点后，反思和质疑开始产生价值（之前别瞎反思），实践和总结推动着越过第二个临界点，但悟性和天资可能让一些人永远翻不过去。两次质变之后，将开始享受学习积累和资产积累的双重复利。理性让世界有序，感性让世界多彩。理性让我们区别于动物，感性让人区别于机器。理性催生了科学，感性孕育了艺术。理性可以培养和训练，感性多是自然的萌发。失去理性很难美好的生活，失去感性很难拥有真正的生命。投资的窍门就是巧方法+笨功夫。巧方法是指方法论体系，让你事半功倍，做到高效聪明的整合信息碎片形成完整认识；笨功夫，就是踏踏实实花时间花精力一点点去阅读、搜集和积累。市场里80%的人被笨功夫这层就淘汰了，基本失去超额收益的入围资格。剩下的又有一半儿被巧方法挡住了，原地打转收益与付出无法匹配。所以相当赢家，既要甘于「笨」又要善于「巧」。总有朋友对我说：看你每天晃来晃去的，投资就那么轻松啥都不用干？我说当然不是，只不过我们工作的形态不同。一般工作的繁忙很容易识别，但投资工作其实就是三件事：学习、思考、做决定。除了学习研究是较容易看到的，更重要的「思考」和「做决定」完全可以一点儿外在表现都没有，但其实它们才是最重要的可积累无形资产。职业投资人的社交很单纯，不需要维系多余的社会关系。在主动筛选后能沉淀下来的是三种人：第一种是有料。某一方面的学识好，能弥补自己的知识短板开拓思维，与之交流有益；第二种是有趣。或风趣豁达或古灵精怪，与之交往总能给生活带来一抹亮色；第三种是有品。就是能信任靠得住，价值观相近可坦率的说心里话。当然如果能多条兼顾，自然是交友的精品。投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱。往小了说，对一个公司没有充分的信心，最多只能赚到财务数据直接相关的那点儿钱，再远点长点的钱是不可能赚到的。往大了说，对国家未来从心底悲观，那么最多赚到几个波段的小聪明的钱，要赚大钱也很难了。格局、历史感这些东西在99%的时候都很虚，但在1%的重要决策时刻往往就是强大信念的真正支撑点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303411551,"gmtCreate":1603219039373,"gmtModify":1703829139708,"author":{"id":"3519919797189867","authorId":"3519919797189867","name":"SPCTrading","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592d858eacc44c9780c8c59dd72fc1cb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519919797189867","authorIdStr":"3519919797189867"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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