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股海一声啸
06-18
积极参与其中才有收获,风险机遇并存,博
股海一声啸
2023-03-02
$腾讯控股(00700)$
三月必阳,期待中
股海一声啸
2022-05-11
冲冲冲
@小虎活动:【悬赏】抖音集团成立,你怎么看?
股海一声啸
2022-05-11
立杆见影
@期权小班长:美股能在周三反弹吗?
股海一声啸
2022-05-11
好好好
@Ivan_甘灿荣:周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,市场可能出现新一轮波动
股海一声啸
2022-05-11
$创业黑马(300688)$
是他是他我们的英雄小陀螺
股海一声啸
2022-05-11
$苹果(AAPL)$
低谷与峰顶
股海一声啸
2022-05-05
加息,利率,对股场的利与弊,主导市场的还是资金量,控制量的是人作出选择买与卖,买与卖的决断是心态,心态很重要!!!
股海一声啸
2022-04-09
炒=操作+炒作
股海一声啸
2022-04-09
心态+时间
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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三月必阳,期待中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624780185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612190390,"gmtCreate":1652200243510,"gmtModify":1652200243510,"author":{"id":"3512096248417207","authorId":"3512096248417207","authorIdStr":"3512096248417207","name":"股海一声啸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e938dbebbfe643b867d461173b3bf12","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲冲冲","listText":"冲冲冲","text":"冲冲冲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612190390","repostId":"612078371","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612078371,"gmtCreate":1652103849910,"gmtModify":1652128418471,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f487d6799e86204e80dfde72e6040c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【悬赏】抖音集团成立,你怎么看?","htmlText":"上周末,字节系更名的消息不胫而走——5 月 8 日,据媒体报道,字节跳动(香港)有限公司更名为抖音集团(香港)公司——这是该公司自 2012 年注册成立以来首次进行名称变更;5 月 7 日,国家企业信用信息公示系统显示,字节跳动有限公司更名为抖音有限公司,北京字节跳动科技有限公司也更名为北京抖音信息服务有限公司。此外,字节跳动旗下多个公司也已陆续更名抖音。无独有偶,4 月 25 日,字节跳动首席财务官(CFO)在空缺五个月后有了新的接棒者——世达国际律师事务所高级合伙人高准(Julie Gao)将加入字节跳动担任 CFO。对此,虎嗅在《字节试图“惊险一跃”》一文分析认为,这位享誉华尔街的律所翘楚不仅熟悉美国、中国香港等地 IPO 流程规则,还有着丰富的中概股 IPO 实践经验,高准之于字节跳动的“使命”或是为 IPO 铺路。 这些接连的举动引发市场对后续进一步动作的猜想。对此你怎么看? 欢迎大家来聊聊 你觉得抖音的估值会到多少? 你觉得抖音上市会对港股市场有哪些影响? 我们会从评论区随机挑选5个说的最有道理的朋友赠送虎币,活动一直持续到下周一(5月16日)","listText":"上周末,字节系更名的消息不胫而走——5 月 8 日,据媒体报道,字节跳动(香港)有限公司更名为抖音集团(香港)公司——这是该公司自 2012 年注册成立以来首次进行名称变更;5 月 7 日,国家企业信用信息公示系统显示,字节跳动有限公司更名为抖音有限公司,北京字节跳动科技有限公司也更名为北京抖音信息服务有限公司。此外,字节跳动旗下多个公司也已陆续更名抖音。无独有偶,4 月 25 日,字节跳动首席财务官(CFO)在空缺五个月后有了新的接棒者——世达国际律师事务所高级合伙人高准(Julie Gao)将加入字节跳动担任 CFO。对此,虎嗅在《字节试图“惊险一跃”》一文分析认为,这位享誉华尔街的律所翘楚不仅熟悉美国、中国香港等地 IPO 流程规则,还有着丰富的中概股 IPO 实践经验,高准之于字节跳动的“使命”或是为 IPO 铺路。 这些接连的举动引发市场对后续进一步动作的猜想。对此你怎么看? 欢迎大家来聊聊 你觉得抖音的估值会到多少? 你觉得抖音上市会对港股市场有哪些影响? 我们会从评论区随机挑选5个说的最有道理的朋友赠送虎币,活动一直持续到下周一(5月16日)","text":"上周末,字节系更名的消息不胫而走——5 月 8 日,据媒体报道,字节跳动(香港)有限公司更名为抖音集团(香港)公司——这是该公司自 2012 年注册成立以来首次进行名称变更;5 月 7 日,国家企业信用信息公示系统显示,字节跳动有限公司更名为抖音有限公司,北京字节跳动科技有限公司也更名为北京抖音信息服务有限公司。此外,字节跳动旗下多个公司也已陆续更名抖音。无独有偶,4 月 25 日,字节跳动首席财务官(CFO)在空缺五个月后有了新的接棒者——世达国际律师事务所高级合伙人高准(Julie Gao)将加入字节跳动担任 CFO。对此,虎嗅在《字节试图“惊险一跃”》一文分析认为,这位享誉华尔街的律所翘楚不仅熟悉美国、中国香港等地 IPO 流程规则,还有着丰富的中概股 IPO 实践经验,高准之于字节跳动的“使命”或是为 IPO 铺路。 这些接连的举动引发市场对后续进一步动作的猜想。对此你怎么看? 欢迎大家来聊聊 你觉得抖音的估值会到多少? 你觉得抖音上市会对港股市场有哪些影响? 我们会从评论区随机挑选5个说的最有道理的朋友赠送虎币,活动一直持续到下周一(5月16日)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62761229cf1576f22c179985a83586e","width":"709","height":"759"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612078371","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612107756,"gmtCreate":1652200146875,"gmtModify":1652200146875,"author":{"id":"3512096248417207","authorId":"3512096248417207","authorIdStr":"3512096248417207","name":"股海一声啸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e938dbebbfe643b867d461173b3bf12","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"立杆见影","listText":"立杆见影","text":"立杆见影","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612107756","repostId":"612911091","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612911091,"gmtCreate":1652118424672,"gmtModify":1652132156965,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美股能在周三反弹吗?","htmlText":"周一盘前打开行情大吃一惊,千亿以上市值的公司,竟然没有一家是上涨的,属实罕见,也证明了上周五的猜想:权重股接棒成长股变为大盘下跌主力。截止到5月6日,2022年纳斯达克下跌23%,标普下跌14%。按照熊市标准,纳斯达克熊了,标普没熊。然而万亿新贵当中,只有苹果目前维持13%的跌幅,其余成员全部跌破20%熊市大关。 如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","listText":"周一盘前打开行情大吃一惊,千亿以上市值的公司,竟然没有一家是上涨的,属实罕见,也证明了上周五的猜想:权重股接棒成长股变为大盘下跌主力。截止到5月6日,2022年纳斯达克下跌23%,标普下跌14%。按照熊市标准,纳斯达克熊了,标普没熊。然而万亿新贵当中,只有苹果目前维持13%的跌幅,其余成员全部跌破20%熊市大关。 如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","text":"周一盘前打开行情大吃一惊,千亿以上市值的公司,竟然没有一家是上涨的,属实罕见,也证明了上周五的猜想:权重股接棒成长股变为大盘下跌主力。截止到5月6日,2022年纳斯达克下跌23%,标普下跌14%。按照熊市标准,纳斯达克熊了,标普没熊。然而万亿新贵当中,只有苹果目前维持13%的跌幅,其余成员全部跌破20%熊市大关。 如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f69ec0dc0fa946a80fbd52af4a6376","width":"1170","height":"2364"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ce4b921bce62bcd0f284adf4c95656","width":"1170","height":"1348"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd8e35efe00814d900c567cbd292556","width":"1170","height":"2409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612911091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612107446,"gmtCreate":1652200072285,"gmtModify":1652200072285,"author":{"id":"3512096248417207","authorId":"3512096248417207","authorIdStr":"3512096248417207","name":"股海一声啸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e938dbebbfe643b867d461173b3bf12","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好好好","listText":"好好好","text":"好好好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612107446","repostId":"612006949","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612006949,"gmtCreate":1652063764496,"gmtModify":1652069635020,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,市场可能出现新一轮波动","htmlText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问,战事升级提振战争情绪,能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价,或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能,只不过波动会很大,大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上,10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线,油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线,因此(","listText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问,战事升级提振战争情绪,能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价,或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能,只不过波动会很大,大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上,10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线,油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线,因此(","text":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 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如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","listText":"周一盘前打开行情大吃一惊,千亿以上市值的公司,竟然没有一家是上涨的,属实罕见,也证明了上周五的猜想:权重股接棒成长股变为大盘下跌主力。截止到5月6日,2022年纳斯达克下跌23%,标普下跌14%。按照熊市标准,纳斯达克熊了,标普没熊。然而万亿新贵当中,只有苹果目前维持13%的跌幅,其余成员全部跌破20%熊市大关。 如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","text":"周一盘前打开行情大吃一惊,千亿以上市值的公司,竟然没有一家是上涨的,属实罕见,也证明了上周五的猜想:权重股接棒成长股变为大盘下跌主力。截止到5月6日,2022年纳斯达克下跌23%,标普下跌14%。按照熊市标准,纳斯达克熊了,标普没熊。然而万亿新贵当中,只有苹果目前维持13%的跌幅,其余成员全部跌破20%熊市大关。 如果有一天苹果年跌幅也跌破20%,即跌破$146,会怎么样呢?其实快一点,估计这两天就可以看到苹果跌破20%,$146距离$151仅仅只有3.5%左右。如果说A股保卫的是3000点,那美股保卫的应该就是苹果$146了。 不过这场保卫战是多空双方真刀真枪的对砍,还是互相敷衍一下就给空方让路了,取决于宏观是否真正有所改善。如果通胀依旧高企没有下降趋势,原油价格依旧走强,供应链依旧迟迟没有改善,我认为$146也只是下一个阶段的开始而已。 不过根据前瞻预测,周三美国将发布4月CPI数据,市场普遍预测4月的CPI同比增速放缓,显现出见顶的迹象,环比增速将从1.2%降至0.2%,同比增速将从8.5%降至8.1%,核心CPI将回落至6.1%。 所以周一周二大跌反而是件好事,根据以往被华尔街折磨的经验,说明这个预测数据大概率没啥问题,通胀确实有所缓解,数据公布后可以期待小反弹。 投资——抛售的恶性循环 不过今天值得注意的信息还是$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 的被大股东减持。有消息称随着IPO解禁期结束,福特计划出售其持有的800万股股票,目前福**持有约1.02亿股。 减持的主要原因还是因为RIVN大跌,让福特公司第一季度亏损了54亿美元。今年一季度RIVN公司股价跌了51%。 那么同样是持股大跌的亚马逊会不会也跟进这一波抛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f69ec0dc0fa946a80fbd52af4a6376","width":"1170","height":"2364"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ce4b921bce62bcd0f284adf4c95656","width":"1170","height":"1348"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd8e35efe00814d900c567cbd292556","width":"1170","height":"2409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612911091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612107446,"gmtCreate":1652200072285,"gmtModify":1652200072285,"author":{"id":"3512096248417207","authorId":"3512096248417207","authorIdStr":"3512096248417207","name":"股海一声啸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e938dbebbfe643b867d461173b3bf12","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好好好","listText":"好好好","text":"好好好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612107446","repostId":"612006949","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612006949,"gmtCreate":1652063764496,"gmtModify":1652069635020,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,市场可能出现新一轮波动","htmlText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问,战事升级提振战争情绪,能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价,或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能,只不过波动会很大,大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上,10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线,油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线,因此(","listText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问,战事升级提振战争情绪,能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价,或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能,只不过波动会很大,大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上,10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线,油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线,因此(","text":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子,5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日,且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵(该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵)。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注,但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态,且并无谈妥的迹象,因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候,因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言,其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束,宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷,鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到;其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击,若此传言属实,则再一次调动市场的战争情绪,那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演;其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”,提振国内士气,向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限,但长期影响实为利多效应,毕竟欧美也不会示弱,造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过,若美国“软着陆”则“保股市,商品崩”;若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨,股市崩”。无论哪种路径,总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看,美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子,标普颈线位置在4200附近,道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置,如果没有暴力反弹远离该处,那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下,避险是首位,有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下,会远超预期的。 策略上,以标普为例,以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线,在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈,但也不着急做多,多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问,战事升级提振战争情绪,能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价,或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能,只不过波动会很大,大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上,10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线,油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线,因此(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052c14cf947f577dc4373de6fbe14b24","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7669d96dec5244dbe9366b57f3a9f8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880b0bb388505f086a7501010a1275e5","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612006949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612104474,"gmtCreate":1652199900998,"gmtModify":1652202281975,"author":{"id":"3512096248417207","authorId":"3512096248417207","authorIdStr":"3512096248417207","name":"股海一声啸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e938dbebbfe643b867d461173b3bf12","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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