JasonQu的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JasonQu

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2023-09-12

$京东(JD)$ 踏踏实实挣钱

2020-06-18

$网易-S(09999)$辣鸡

2020-06-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@美港电讯APP:重申京东(JD.O)买入评级，目标价从60美元上调至70美元。 $京东(JD)$

2020-06-15

$网易-S(09999)$这是坑中国人自己的钱[愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒]

2020-05-20

$京东(JD)$崛起崛起[开心] [开心] [开心]

2020-05-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

京东赴港，看点几何？

2020-05-14

[666] [666] [666]

@美股研究社:瑞穗上调京东评级至买入，目标价从37美元升至58美元

2020-05-13

$京东(JD)$要🛫️啦！

2020-05-09

汽车行业需要有搅局者

“大额直降”卖汽车，拼多多寻找新盟友？

2020-03-25

未来还是很有潜力的从未来的方向上

2020-03-10

$京东(JD)$好一个海底捞月

2020-03-07

$京东(JD)$机会来了

2020-03-05

$京东(JD)$坐等50稳稳的

2020-01-17

$微博(WB)$ 庄家这样不好呀

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959522197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959344396,"gmtCreate":1589807024015,"gmtModify":1704190657132,"author":{"id":"3511907162407448","authorId":"3511907162407448","name":"JasonQu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511907162407448","authorIdStr":"3511907162407448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959344396","repostId":"1147779192","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147779192","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1589772144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147779192?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-18 11:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"京东赴港，看点几何？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147779192","media":"安信国际","summary":"据报道，京东日前已通过保密方式正式向香港联合交易所递交上市申请，最快在6月上市，这也意味着京东在港二次上市已迈出实质性的一步。公司目前是中国最大的自营零售商，同时也是中国第二大的B2C平台。2019年","content":"<p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>日前已通过保密方式正式向香港联合交易所递交上市申请，最快在6月上市，这也意味着京东在港二次上市已迈出实质性的一步。公司目前是中国最大的自营零售商，同时也是中国第二大的B2C平台。2019年总GMV达到20854亿人民币，同比增长24%。</p><p>业务要点</p><p><b>1.公司介绍</b></p><p>京东发展脉络清晰，定位国内最大的自营零售商。自2004年起，历经十余年，公司构建起全品类、全渠道，业务覆盖零售、物流服务及消费金融的线上零售帝国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad4fd129ef96dfd8c20d4902beabcbc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"284\"></p><p>2019年年报文件显示，京东当前一共有4.46亿股普通股，其中，京东董事会主席刘强东持股15.1%，投票权为78.5%，与去年相比分别下降0.3%、0.5%。</p><p>外部股东中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>全资子公司Huang River Investment Limited(黄河投资)仍是京东最大的外部股东，持股比例达17.9%，投票权为4.6%。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>对京东持股9.8%，投票权为2.5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e29a26e67ad836c9d1a5d7db10ffd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"></p><p><b>2.业务概览</b></p><p>京东以电商起家，不断拓展自身的业务版图，形成以电商为核心，物流、金融、新零售相互协同的生态圈。以电商业务为核心，各个业务板块协同效应明显，从自给自足到开放赋能，为京东未来的业绩增长提供了持续的动力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda12d312a44122a11a8bfce5a1956af\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"399\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc9d04d16f6bdcce8fbd90af1e2aed6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"277\"></p><p><b>1)电商行业：赛道增速快，格局清晰</b></p><p>依据国家统计局数据， 2019年1-11月，从存量占比来看，国内实物电商交易规模7.6亿元，在社零总额中占比达到19.7%;从增量贡献来看，实物电商累计同比增长19.7%(社零整体增速为8.0%)，实物电商对社零整体的增量贡献占比达到50.2%。电商是零售成长性赛道，并已成为国内消费市场“系统重要性”终端渠道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8224ee4f771bf19161e1fe87ad235db\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"425\"></p><p>预计2023年实物电商将达14.7万亿，未来五年CAGR约16%，电商社零占比将达到27.46%。我们预计未来五年实物电商将保持稳健增长，主要原因在于：1)技术及物流的快速发展助力电商履单成本下行，在低线市场、低渗透品类上提速;2)直播、游戏等新玩法增加用户触点，深度绑定网购用户，增强粘性;3)电商渠道价值再认知，从价格驱动转向新品驱动，从单一销售渠道转为营销+销售“种拔一体”的复合渠道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec64fb40d7bdd6438741606e9afd59b4\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"273\"></p><p>截至2019前9月，低线市场(三线及以下城市)电商用户同比增长18.5%至5.25亿人(高线市场4.7亿人)，考虑人口基数，低线市场电商用户仍有进一步扩张空间。且由于相对高线市场更低的住房消费挤占和更加缺乏的线下零售设施，低线市场用户电商购买力释放更加充分。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc1b762a01eaf382f9adc3f4a0d992e\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"389\"></p><p>2019Q3除<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>(111%)继续保持三位数高增长外，天猫(26%，仅实物)、京东(26.6%，仅自营)增速同样领先行业。第二梯队中，苏宁(19.5%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>(17%)增速基本与电商行业增速持平(整体电商14.9%/实物电商18.4%)。Top3电商平台强者恒强，测算阿里(含天猫&amp;淘宝)、京东、拼多多三家合计市场份额约90.4%，市场集中度持续提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1021aa368997b2a7f4ed1b69612693e0\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"253\"></p><p><b>2)零售：规模效应改善利润率，科技驱动技术变革</b></p><p>目前京东自营和平台互补，未来随着渠道规模进一步扩大，与供应商议价能力进一步提升，盈利能力有望逐渐提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9034fb817de356b4bc9803b543490f83\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"379\"></p><p>京东毛利率预判</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b117f9478c7b2045697d22bebd64133f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"284\"></p><p>京东数据中台的理念，就是连接各个业务单元，打造一套大数据中心，从而降低各项费用率。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634467fed3d12589179c53c88715cbea\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"342\"></p><p><b>3)物流：构建闭环，提升效率</b></p><p>京东物流仓配一体化打造闭环生态，有利于提高消费者体验感，增加粘性和复购率，整个过程无需第三方参与，提高了配送效率，且物流速度优于行业平均水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7e3af9d57270c1a71be893ad12363c\" tg-width=\"424\" tg-height=\"212\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c818060d74dacca86fa1de09b06e942\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"248\"></p><p>目前所有亚洲一号单体仓库订单日处理在10万以上，广州、武汉等智能仓库处理能力在百万级别以上。自动化立体仓库运营效率是传统仓库的三倍以上，截止2019年底，在全国布局的亚洲一号智能物流园达到25座以上，未来逐渐实现核心城市全覆盖。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3903e5f06c648c214ff65fdcf41171a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"305\"></p><p><b>3)发力企业购，挖掘直播渠道+拼购业务</b></p><p>据统计，2018年企业采购电商业务达6000亿人民币，预计年均复合增速33%以上，其中京东企业业务发展良好，已经服务超6000家大型企业客户，超700万家中小企业客户，平均帮企业客户降低18%采购成本。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca3782fcaa81b81ca5d20c7e2bf7871\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"245\"></p><p>2019双十一期间，京东直播带货累计成交是618期间的15倍，并且首次实现品类100%覆盖，自营品牌开播率超60%，通过明星直播帮助品牌商实现精准导流，提高用户购买转化率。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8278bce1b1adb87851011d3d887a36\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"182\"></p><p>2018年2月，京东打造首个社交电商盛典“京东好玩节”，用户拓展目标战略性转移至低线市场，拼购业务作为在低线市场“跑通”的模式，在京东内部战略地位提升。2018年12月，京东拼购事业部成立;2019年9月，京东拼购升级品牌为“京喜”，10月原微信平台的京东购物改版为“京喜”并推广独立app，“京喜”正式走向台前。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/767bd819f2a86ae448dcd02ef0c9f34c\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"194\"></p><p>京喜平台运营复刻成熟打法：</p><p>1)降低商家入驻标准。京东拼购2018年首次对外招商，平台保证金1-3万元不等，平台使用费500元/月，佣金扣点率1%。此后，为加大招商力度，先后进行两轮的资费下调，当前京喜平台保证金4000元起，全类目免平台使用费，佣金扣点率0.6%，基本对标拼多多1000/2000/10000元三档保证金和0.6%交易佣金。</p><p>2)社交趣味化app页面设计。对比京喜和拼多多APP，首页居中位置各有十个入口，其中“9.9特卖”、“清仓特卖”、“话费充值”、“百亿补贴”四个入口完全相同，京喜的“天天领金币”对应拼多多的“现金签到”均为签到领奖励，而“养猪领大奖”对应“多多果园”、“金猪赚大钱”则是趣味游戏类的社交打法，通过好友互动、分享等获得奖励，同时形成社交裂变。</p><p>京喜上线三月日单量稳定破百万。成熟打法+微信一级流量入口加持，京喜上线后快速起量。依据京东微信公众号披露，2019年双十一当天，京喜销量破亿。双十一促销过后，连续一个月(2019.11.18—12.18)日均订单量稳超百万。且从Questmobile披露的双十一期间app新增用户分布来看，京喜63.5%新增用户为三线及以下城市，占比领先主要电商平台。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a0d03734e75c6e4ad04546fbb99c4e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\"></p><p>财务分析</p><p><b>1.收入保持增长，用户增长显著</b></p><p>从全年来看，2019全年收入为5768.9亿元，同比增长24.9%。其中：自营电商业务收入为5107.3亿元，同比增长22.7%，服务与其他业务收入为 661.6亿元，同比增长44.1%;</p><p>2019年全年调整后归母净利润为107.5亿元，同比增长210.7%，超指引上限2.4%，调整后归母净利率为1.9%，同比提升1.1%。截至2019年12月31日，公司账上现金及现金等价物、限制性现金及短期投资约645亿元。全年毛利率同比提升0.4%至14.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9ac0712e0ce59bc9f6917fe730683f\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"414\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bebe741559eb0db2748314495eec0c3\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"369\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db316910fa170ecc0489b0a84a5bc464\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p>从公司主要运营指标来看，2019Q4公司存货周转天数环比提升0.7天至35.8天，应付账款周转天数环比降低2.1天至54.5天，应收账款周转天数环比持平至3.2天。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c6c79dcadea444fe659b2c8c588531a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"></p><p>受益于仓储使用率与人员效率带动下的规模效应，京东零售业务运营效率继续提升。2019Q4京东零售业务运营利润率同比提升0.3%至1.4%，全年运营利润率同比提升0.9%至2.5%。随着物流前期投入逐步减少，规模经济效益下物流使用效率与人员效率有所提升，京东零售业务的盈利水平有望延续上升趋势。</p><p>京东零售业务运营利润率</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/408d7fce6067e19a6aeca23b191b0e03\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"374\"></p><p>渠道下沉效果逐步显现，本季度京东年化核心活跃买家达到3.62亿，同比增长18.6%，增速相较上季度的9.6%继续回升，单季度实现买家环比净增 2760万，创三年以来新高，其中超过70%新用户来自于下沉城市。活跃用户方面，2019年12月12月移动端MAU同比增长41%，DAU同比增长 38%，为过去八个季度以来最高增速。此外，2019年全年GMV 同比增长 24.4%至2.09 万亿元，对应人均GMV同比增长4.9%至5761元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a0d0fe20ba7beb9b1db0afbe563aee\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"528\"></p><p><b>2.估值及建议</b></p><p>我们预计2020-2022年公司调整后归母净利润将达到139亿元/190亿元/233亿元，分别同比增长29.3%/36.7%/22.6%，对应当前市值的市盈率分别为35x/25.6x/20.9x。考虑到公司用户回流趋势以及在降本提效下盈利能力的持续改善， 我们将京东的合理市值定为741.6亿美元(每ADR约 50.68 美元)，相较当前市值仍有近8.27%的提升空间，港股IPO定价以美股ADR价格为锚，或许有些许折让(类似阿里)，可以适当参与打新操作。</p>","source":"axgj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>京东赴港，看点几何？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东赴港，看点几何？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-18 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/302330.html><strong>安信国际</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道，京东日前已通过保密方式正式向香港联合交易所递交上市申请，最快在6月上市，这也意味着京东在港二次上市已迈出实质性的一步。公司目前是中国最大的自营零售商，同时也是中国第二大的B2C平台。2019年总GMV达到20854亿人民币，同比增长24%。业务要点1.公司介绍京东发展脉络清晰，定位国内最大的自营零售商。自2004年起，历经十余年，公司构建起全品类、全渠道，业务覆盖零售、物流服务及消费金融的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/302330.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028bf7c7eafdcd11c8df76a91d4805e0","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/302330.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147779192","content_text":"据报道，京东日前已通过保密方式正式向香港联合交易所递交上市申请，最快在6月上市，这也意味着京东在港二次上市已迈出实质性的一步。公司目前是中国最大的自营零售商，同时也是中国第二大的B2C平台。2019年总GMV达到20854亿人民币，同比增长24%。业务要点1.公司介绍京东发展脉络清晰，定位国内最大的自营零售商。自2004年起，历经十余年，公司构建起全品类、全渠道，业务覆盖零售、物流服务及消费金融的线上零售帝国。2019年年报文件显示，京东当前一共有4.46亿股普通股，其中，京东董事会主席刘强东持股15.1%，投票权为78.5%，与去年相比分别下降0.3%、0.5%。外部股东中，腾讯全资子公司Huang River Investment Limited(黄河投资)仍是京东最大的外部股东，持股比例达17.9%，投票权为4.6%。此外，沃尔玛对京东持股9.8%，投票权为2.5%。2.业务概览京东以电商起家，不断拓展自身的业务版图，形成以电商为核心，物流、金融、新零售相互协同的生态圈。以电商业务为核心，各个业务板块协同效应明显，从自给自足到开放赋能，为京东未来的业绩增长提供了持续的动力。1)电商行业：赛道增速快，格局清晰依据国家统计局数据， 2019年1-11月，从存量占比来看，国内实物电商交易规模7.6亿元，在社零总额中占比达到19.7%;从增量贡献来看，实物电商累计同比增长19.7%(社零整体增速为8.0%)，实物电商对社零整体的增量贡献占比达到50.2%。电商是零售成长性赛道，并已成为国内消费市场“系统重要性”终端渠道。预计2023年实物电商将达14.7万亿，未来五年CAGR约16%，电商社零占比将达到27.46%。我们预计未来五年实物电商将保持稳健增长，主要原因在于：1)技术及物流的快速发展助力电商履单成本下行，在低线市场、低渗透品类上提速;2)直播、游戏等新玩法增加用户触点，深度绑定网购用户，增强粘性;3)电商渠道价值再认知，从价格驱动转向新品驱动，从单一销售渠道转为营销+销售“种拔一体”的复合渠道。截至2019前9月，低线市场(三线及以下城市)电商用户同比增长18.5%至5.25亿人(高线市场4.7亿人)，考虑人口基数，低线市场电商用户仍有进一步扩张空间。且由于相对高线市场更低的住房消费挤占和更加缺乏的线下零售设施，低线市场用户电商购买力释放更加充分。2019Q3除拼多多(111%)继续保持三位数高增长外，天猫(26%，仅实物)、京东(26.6%，仅自营)增速同样领先行业。第二梯队中，苏宁(19.5%)、唯品会(17%)增速基本与电商行业增速持平(整体电商14.9%/实物电商18.4%)。Top3电商平台强者恒强，测算阿里(含天猫&淘宝)、京东、拼多多三家合计市场份额约90.4%，市场集中度持续提升。2)零售：规模效应改善利润率，科技驱动技术变革目前京东自营和平台互补，未来随着渠道规模进一步扩大，与供应商议价能力进一步提升，盈利能力有望逐渐提升。京东毛利率预判京东数据中台的理念，就是连接各个业务单元，打造一套大数据中心，从而降低各项费用率。3)物流：构建闭环，提升效率京东物流仓配一体化打造闭环生态，有利于提高消费者体验感，增加粘性和复购率，整个过程无需第三方参与，提高了配送效率，且物流速度优于行业平均水平。目前所有亚洲一号单体仓库订单日处理在10万以上，广州、武汉等智能仓库处理能力在百万级别以上。自动化立体仓库运营效率是传统仓库的三倍以上，截止2019年底，在全国布局的亚洲一号智能物流园达到25座以上，未来逐渐实现核心城市全覆盖。3)发力企业购，挖掘直播渠道+拼购业务据统计，2018年企业采购电商业务达6000亿人民币，预计年均复合增速33%以上，其中京东企业业务发展良好，已经服务超6000家大型企业客户，超700万家中小企业客户，平均帮企业客户降低18%采购成本。2019双十一期间，京东直播带货累计成交是618期间的15倍，并且首次实现品类100%覆盖，自营品牌开播率超60%，通过明星直播帮助品牌商实现精准导流，提高用户购买转化率。2018年2月，京东打造首个社交电商盛典“京东好玩节”，用户拓展目标战略性转移至低线市场，拼购业务作为在低线市场“跑通”的模式，在京东内部战略地位提升。2018年12月，京东拼购事业部成立;2019年9月，京东拼购升级品牌为“京喜”，10月原微信平台的京东购物改版为“京喜”并推广独立app，“京喜”正式走向台前。京喜平台运营复刻成熟打法：1)降低商家入驻标准。京东拼购2018年首次对外招商，平台保证金1-3万元不等，平台使用费500元/月，佣金扣点率1%。此后，为加大招商力度，先后进行两轮的资费下调，当前京喜平台保证金4000元起，全类目免平台使用费，佣金扣点率0.6%，基本对标拼多多1000/2000/10000元三档保证金和0.6%交易佣金。2)社交趣味化app页面设计。对比京喜和拼多多APP，首页居中位置各有十个入口，其中“9.9特卖”、“清仓特卖”、“话费充值”、“百亿补贴”四个入口完全相同，京喜的“天天领金币”对应拼多多的“现金签到”均为签到领奖励，而“养猪领大奖”对应“多多果园”、“金猪赚大钱”则是趣味游戏类的社交打法，通过好友互动、分享等获得奖励，同时形成社交裂变。京喜上线三月日单量稳定破百万。成熟打法+微信一级流量入口加持，京喜上线后快速起量。依据京东微信公众号披露，2019年双十一当天，京喜销量破亿。双十一促销过后，连续一个月(2019.11.18—12.18)日均订单量稳超百万。且从Questmobile披露的双十一期间app新增用户分布来看，京喜63.5%新增用户为三线及以下城市，占比领先主要电商平台。财务分析1.收入保持增长，用户增长显著从全年来看，2019全年收入为5768.9亿元，同比增长24.9%。其中：自营电商业务收入为5107.3亿元，同比增长22.7%，服务与其他业务收入为 661.6亿元，同比增长44.1%;2019年全年调整后归母净利润为107.5亿元，同比增长210.7%，超指引上限2.4%，调整后归母净利率为1.9%，同比提升1.1%。截至2019年12月31日，公司账上现金及现金等价物、限制性现金及短期投资约645亿元。全年毛利率同比提升0.4%至14.6%。从公司主要运营指标来看，2019Q4公司存货周转天数环比提升0.7天至35.8天，应付账款周转天数环比降低2.1天至54.5天，应收账款周转天数环比持平至3.2天。受益于仓储使用率与人员效率带动下的规模效应，京东零售业务运营效率继续提升。2019Q4京东零售业务运营利润率同比提升0.3%至1.4%，全年运营利润率同比提升0.9%至2.5%。随着物流前期投入逐步减少，规模经济效益下物流使用效率与人员效率有所提升，京东零售业务的盈利水平有望延续上升趋势。京东零售业务运营利润率渠道下沉效果逐步显现，本季度京东年化核心活跃买家达到3.62亿，同比增长18.6%，增速相较上季度的9.6%继续回升，单季度实现买家环比净增 2760万，创三年以来新高，其中超过70%新用户来自于下沉城市。活跃用户方面，2019年12月12月移动端MAU同比增长41%，DAU同比增长 38%，为过去八个季度以来最高增速。此外，2019年全年GMV 同比增长 24.4%至2.09 万亿元，对应人均GMV同比增长4.9%至5761元。2.估值及建议我们预计2020-2022年公司调整后归母净利润将达到139亿元/190亿元/233亿元，分别同比增长29.3%/36.7%/22.6%，对应当前市值的市盈率分别为35x/25.6x/20.9x。考虑到公司用户回流趋势以及在降本提效下盈利能力的持续改善， 我们将京东的合理市值定为741.6亿美元(每ADR约 50.68 美元)，相较当前市值仍有近8.27%的提升空间，港股IPO定价以美股ADR价格为锚，或许有些许折让(类似阿里)，可以适当参与打新操作。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950590533,"gmtCreate":1589438974122,"gmtModify":1704189883054,"author":{"id":"3511907162407448","authorId":"3511907162407448","name":"JasonQu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511907162407448","authorIdStr":"3511907162407448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","listText":"[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","text":"[666] [666] [666]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950590533","repostId":"950252684","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":950252684,"gmtCreate":1589422121148,"gmtModify":1704189834962,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a239c7906133df1f3817d0746a8a0ba1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503452965237041","authorIdStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞穗上调京东评级至买入，目标价从37美元升至58美元","htmlText":"美股研究社5月14日消息，据智通财经网报道，瑞穗证券宣布将<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，目标价由37美元上调至58美元。瑞穗指出，受公共卫生危机导致的药品和生活必需品需求上涨，为京东创造了“可观的”潜在市场。这两个细分市场的潜在市场总量很大，且在线渗透率低。瑞穗表示，京东目前的表现相当优秀，因为它的物流能力和品牌合作关系提高了商品的交付速度和效率。据美股研究社观察显示，截至美东时间5月13日美股收盘，京东股价上涨1.66%，报47.810美元，总市值达702.15亿美元。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","listText":"美股研究社5月14日消息，据智通财经网报道，瑞穗证券宣布将<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，目标价由37美元上调至58美元。瑞穗指出，受公共卫生危机导致的药品和生活必需品需求上涨，为京东创造了“可观的”潜在市场。这两个细分市场的潜在市场总量很大，且在线渗透率低。瑞穗表示，京东目前的表现相当优秀，因为它的物流能力和品牌合作关系提高了商品的交付速度和效率。据美股研究社观察显示，截至美东时间5月13日美股收盘，京东股价上涨1.66%，报47.810美元，总市值达702.15亿美元。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","text":"美股研究社5月14日消息，据智通财经网报道，瑞穗证券宣布将$京东(JD)$ 评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，目标价由37美元上调至58美元。瑞穗指出，受公共卫生危机导致的药品和生活必需品需求上涨，为京东创造了“可观的”潜在市场。这两个细分市场的潜在市场总量很大，且在线渗透率低。瑞穗表示，京东目前的表现相当优秀，因为它的物流能力和品牌合作关系提高了商品的交付速度和效率。据美股研究社观察显示，截至美东时间5月13日美股收盘，京东股价上涨1.66%，报47.810美元，总市值达702.15亿美元。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf8990d9aeeef7488844e992f0dd261","width":"600","height":"360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950252684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":950688734,"gmtCreate":1589374387128,"gmtModify":1704189668145,"author":{"id":"3511907162407448","authorId":"3511907162407448","name":"JasonQu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511907162407448","authorIdStr":"3511907162407448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>要🛫️啦！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>要🛫️啦！","text":"$京东(JD)$要🛫️啦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950688734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927734673,"gmtCreate":1588992292292,"gmtModify":1704179172642,"author":{"id":"3511907162407448","authorId":"3511907162407448","name":"JasonQu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511907162407448","authorIdStr":"3511907162407448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"汽车行业需要有搅局者","listText":"汽车行业需要有搅局者","text":"汽车行业需要有搅局者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927734673","repostId":"1154069719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154069719","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1588751094,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154069719?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-06 15:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大额直降”卖汽车，拼多多寻找新盟友？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154069719","media":"36氪","summary":"谁遇到了困难，就和谁结盟？","content":"<p>作者：李欣</p>\n<p>拼多多的车卖得还好吗？</p>\n<p>自公布之日起就备受瞩目的拼多多5.5卖车活动，终于有新的成绩单了——5.5折凯迪拉克、上汽大众途昂、上汽大众途观上线即刻秒光。</p>\n<p>在刚刚过去的五一小长假，上海市推出的“五五购物节”正式开启，拼多多对此投入号称史上最大力度的25亿补贴。而汽车正是其以大额直降的方式推出的5.5折耐用品品类之一。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd84fb0b791a6d8c436e8da5e4a9b81f\"></p>\n<p>页面截图</p>\n<p>参与此次活动的汽车为55辆上汽新款车型，包括15辆凯迪拉克XT5 28T豪华型、30辆上汽大众途昂330TSI两驱豪华版、10辆上汽大众途观L330TSI智动豪华版，均以5.5折的价格在拼多多开售。此外，拼多多在原基础上又加推了别克英朗、雪佛兰科沃兹、荣威RX5等上汽热销车型，售价最低5.5折起。</p>\n<p>值得思考的是，在这场颇具普惠性质的“五五购物节”之中，<b>砸巨额补贴卖汽车能为拼多多带来什么？卖汽车的背后，拼多多又有何更大的考量？</b></p>\n<p>拼多多造卖车新纪录<br></p>\n<p>需要注意的是，这并不是拼多多首次低价卖汽车。</p>\n<p>去年5月，拼多多上线整车销售业务，首批推出的是五菱宏光秒杀活动。在活动中，五菱宏光2018款1.5L S标准型最低秒杀价为3.49万元（人民币，下同），该车官方指导价为5.28万元。开枪后仅18秒，400辆五菱宏光全部售罄。此后，拼多多还推出“66拼车节”，即限量6.6折，合作的品牌包括长安、奇瑞、北汽等。</p>\n<p>具体到拼多多“五五购物节”活动，此次折扣均以市场指导价为基础。其中，凯迪拉克、大众途昂、大众途观仅定向补贴上海居民，其他车型全国可购。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb86dcadd06ded48a4032f97fa96a4bc\"></p>\n<p>官方数据；36氪制图</p>\n<p>5.5折凯迪拉克、途昂、途观的抢购共分两轮，分别于5月4日20时和5月5日20时开始。两轮抢购均为上线即刻秒光。</p>\n<p>拼多多汽车业务负责人千羽介绍，截至5月5日21时，本次“五五购物节”准备的上汽集团旗下品牌车型，经过5轮补货，已经累积售出超过600台。</p>\n<p>另外，需要注意的是，抢购成功后，用户在线支付定金，后续经过4S店看车、身份核对等流程后，用户需在拼多多App支付尾款。这意味着，整个销售流程中，用户均通过拼多多App在线支付全款，且暂时没有信贷金融计划。</p>\n<p>如此特惠，必然会为拼多多再迎一波好口碑。除此之外，继续砸巨额补贴卖汽车，究竟还能为拼多多带来什么？</p>\n<p>为什么是“车”？<br></p>\n<p>拼多多表示，首批“五五购物节”低价汽车上线后，后续还将在5月和6月继续推出具有相当折扣力度的车型。这或许意味着，拼多多决心将砸补贴卖汽车进行到底。</p>\n<p>如若长此以往，拼多多的整车销售业务或将在连续补贴下，<b>逐渐培养起用户心智。</b>就像近期苹果推出新款iPhone SE后，大批量网友涌入拼多多官方微博、微信和App后台，喊话拼多多“安排百亿补贴”。这得益于拼多多将苹果手机纳入“百亿补贴”范围后，已在消费者心中形成诸如“苹果手机-百亿补贴”的深度捆绑。公开数据显示，2019年，拼多多“百亿补贴”专区累计售出超过200万台苹果手机，成为iPhone在中国市场最大的销售平台之一。</p>\n<p>在逐步建立用户心智的同时，<b>平台整体客单价亦会随之上升。</b>尤其是“五五购物节”中，用户需在拼多多App在线支付全款的操作更体现出拼多多欲由此提升平台客单价的目的。</p>\n<p>目前，拼多多App中的商品分类主要包括手机、水果、食品、百货、服装、鞋包等。相比之下，作为大宗消费品的汽车实属高客单价商品。随着线上卖车火热进行，用户越来越敢于在电商平台或直播平台进行汽车消费，平台的客单价也因此提升。以2019年宝沃汽车在淘宝直播卖车为例，官方数据显示，该场直播累计预定1623台，订单金额达2.2亿元。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>增加汽车这一商品品类，有利于平台扩充产品组合，从而提升客单价。</b>在2019年二季度财报电话会议上，拼多多战略副总裁九鼎就曾表示，拼多多可以提供越来越多的商品种类，新的特性能够更好地优化商品推荐，这使得拼多多的AOV（客单价）增长到了50元。</p>\n<p>2019年，拼多多全年GMV为10066亿元，订单量197亿，客单价约为51元，而2017、2018年拼多多的客单价分别为33元、42元。</p>\n<p><b>客单价提升的背后，实际上是拼多多争取一、二线城市用户的野心。</b>在阿里、京东“惊觉”下沉市场用户价值后，已在下沉市场占据一定地位的拼多多则选择不断向高端消费品砸补贴以笼络一、二线城市用户。这体现在，包括iPhone、SK-II神仙水等高客单价商品均频繁出现在拼多多百亿补贴商品之列。</p>\n<p>不过，从年活跃用户，及年活跃用户人均消费额的数据来看，拼多多通过补贴高客单价商品以争夺一、二线城市用户的策略似乎远未达“理想状态”。在该等策略下，拼多多的年活跃用户数持续增长。2019年Q4，其年度活跃用户数达5.852亿，即将成为“6亿人都在使用的拼多多”，年活跃用户的人均消费额增加之1720.1元。即便如此，与主要客群为中高端用户的京东相比，拼多多仍然表现平平。2018至2019年，京东的年活跃用户数及其人均消费额的增速均逊于拼多多，但2019年京东的年活跃用户人均消费额（年GMV/年活跃用户数）达5760.77元，是拼多多的3.倍多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6db4b3f77cd427a9dfae79cc01530f1\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：拼多多、京东、智氪研究院（截至2020年4月20日）</p>\n<p>除了在客单价和消费人群上的考虑，更重要的是，<b>作为传统线下销售的庞然大物，汽车这个品类的销售线上化还有足够的空间和潜力，这意味着，拼多多还有更多的机会。</b></p>\n<p>拼多多的盟友突围战？<br></p>\n<p>尽管按照拼多多的说法，此次就“五五购物节”与上汽集团达成的合作，是由上海市政府牵头达成的，并且是拼多多自己砸钱补贴卖车，但长远来看，二者的这一合作或许<b>可以为拼多多的整车销售业务增加潜在供应链合作伙伴。</b></p>\n<p>中金公司在4月21日发布的研报中表示，鉴于拼多多平台已拥有逾5亿活跃购买用户，当务之急更在于建立稳定且多样化的供应商关系。</p>\n<p>一直以来，拼多多平台的商品都因“是否为正品”而饱受质疑。就连此次开卖凯迪拉克，拼多多也没能免遭质疑。上汽通用凯迪拉克市场营销部部长冯旦曾就此在朋友圈发文称“翻新车，假货”。不过，5月2日，<b>凯迪拉克发表官方声明证实：经沟通核实，拼多多将联合凯迪拉克授权经销商百联集团推出5.5折抢购活动。</b></p>\n<p>尤其是在对高净值用户的争夺中，此类质疑的源头之一是<b>相比阿里和京东，拼多多的品牌官方货源不足。</b></p>\n<p>以此前拼多多百亿补贴的34款精选商品为例，据智氪研究院统计，上述34款商品中，仅有6款是官方货源，其他均为各渠道货源。这在一定程度上加剧了外界对拼多多供货稳定性及商品真伪的质疑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c17be8352e60648c47da552efbf9a8\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：智氪研究院</p>\n<p>而就近期拼多多的一连串动作来看，其似乎正在<b>通过与垂直领域龙头企业“结盟”的方式，加强商品的供应链网络，</b>同时消除用户对平台商品真伪的顾虑。</p>\n<p>而拼多多的方针就是<b>“谁遇到了困难，就和谁结盟”，总有在电商市场中过得不好的公司，而这些公司就是拼多多的潜在盟友。</b></p>\n<p>首先是近期与传统家电巨头国美零售的“结盟”。</p>\n<p>在家电市场向线上转移之前，国美和苏宁易购是线下家电市场的两大巨头。直到2015年苏宁易购与阿里合作向线上市场进军后，二者在家电市场的地位逐渐开始分化。从收入来看，2016-2019年，国美的营收则连续下滑，与苏宁的差距逐步拉大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3057ab90219ea5c347de84f76bcd52\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：智氪研究院</p>\n<p>因此，对于国美来说，与拼多多的战略合作亦是其与老对手苏宁易购在家电线上市场交锋的关键砝码。在二者的合作中，拼多多将向国美注入消费大数据、平台流量等数字零售资源。</p>\n<p>对于拼多多来说，与国美的“结盟”后，将获得商品、供应链、物流、售后服务等方面的保障。<b>无论终局如何，起码在家电及电子产品领域，拼多多终于有了“入赛资格”。</b></p>\n<p>显然，<b>家电并不是拼多多理想国的终局，这一次拼多多又瞄准了汽车。</b></p>\n<p>疫情来袭后，<b>本就不太景气的汽车销售市场如坠深渊。</b>汽车工业协会数据显示，3月份全国汽车销量同比下降43%至143万辆，季度销量更是降至冰点，同比下降42%。</p>\n<p>而此时，拼多多作为新的线上销售渠道，<b>和艰难度日的汽车品牌经销商达成合作可谓是水到渠成、各取所需。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103eee3880b269fcf97b09e8cb60429d\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：汽车工业协会（截至2020年4月23日）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90bb8ee454f09f49b69238f9798244c2\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：汽车工业协会（截至2020年4月23日）</p>\n<p>如若未来拼多多能与上汽集团达成进一步的深度合作，或将为其在电商平台整车销售的竞争中赢得更多的话语权。在美国《财富》杂志发布的2019“世界五百强”榜单中，共有6家中国汽车制造企业上榜，其中上汽集团排名最靠前，位列39名。其次还有东风汽车、一汽集团、北京汽车、广汽集团和吉利控股。</p>\n<p>而对于上汽集团来说，此次搭上拼多多或将在一定程度上促进其销量尽快回暖。按照凯迪拉克品牌官方表态的说法——“感谢拼多多在本次钜惠活动中选择凯迪拉克”。</p>\n<p>目前看来，尽管拼多多与上汽集团在此次“五五购物节”后是否还会展开更进一步的深度合作尚是未知，与国美的战略合作效果如何同样未知。</p>\n<p>但可以预见的是，<b>拼多多似乎正在挖掘阿里或京东尚未“垄断”的商品领域，通过与这些垂直领域“待价而沽”的巨头“结盟”，从而在激烈竞争中寻求突围。</b></p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大额直降”卖汽车，拼多多寻找新盟友？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-06 15:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/695899268848006><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：李欣\n拼多多的车卖得还好吗？\n自公布之日起就备受瞩目的拼多多5.5卖车活动，终于有新的成绩单了——5.5折凯迪拉克、上汽大众途昂、上汽大众途观上线即刻秒光。\n在刚刚过去的五一小长假，上海市推出的“五五购物节”正式开启，拼多多对此投入号称史上最大力度的25亿补贴。而汽车正是其以大额直降的方式推出的5.5折耐用品品类之一。\n\n页面截图\n参与此次活动的汽车为55辆上汽新款车型，包括15辆凯迪拉克...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/695899268848006\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/695899268848006","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154069719","content_text":"作者：李欣\n拼多多的车卖得还好吗？\n自公布之日起就备受瞩目的拼多多5.5卖车活动，终于有新的成绩单了——5.5折凯迪拉克、上汽大众途昂、上汽大众途观上线即刻秒光。\n在刚刚过去的五一小长假，上海市推出的“五五购物节”正式开启，拼多多对此投入号称史上最大力度的25亿补贴。而汽车正是其以大额直降的方式推出的5.5折耐用品品类之一。\n\n页面截图\n参与此次活动的汽车为55辆上汽新款车型，包括15辆凯迪拉克XT5 28T豪华型、30辆上汽大众途昂330TSI两驱豪华版、10辆上汽大众途观L330TSI智动豪华版，均以5.5折的价格在拼多多开售。此外，拼多多在原基础上又加推了别克英朗、雪佛兰科沃兹、荣威RX5等上汽热销车型，售价最低5.5折起。\n值得思考的是，在这场颇具普惠性质的“五五购物节”之中，砸巨额补贴卖汽车能为拼多多带来什么？卖汽车的背后，拼多多又有何更大的考量？\n拼多多造卖车新纪录\n需要注意的是，这并不是拼多多首次低价卖汽车。\n去年5月，拼多多上线整车销售业务，首批推出的是五菱宏光秒杀活动。在活动中，五菱宏光2018款1.5L S标准型最低秒杀价为3.49万元（人民币，下同），该车官方指导价为5.28万元。开枪后仅18秒，400辆五菱宏光全部售罄。此后，拼多多还推出“66拼车节”，即限量6.6折，合作的品牌包括长安、奇瑞、北汽等。\n具体到拼多多“五五购物节”活动，此次折扣均以市场指导价为基础。其中，凯迪拉克、大众途昂、大众途观仅定向补贴上海居民，其他车型全国可购。\n\n官方数据；36氪制图\n5.5折凯迪拉克、途昂、途观的抢购共分两轮，分别于5月4日20时和5月5日20时开始。两轮抢购均为上线即刻秒光。\n拼多多汽车业务负责人千羽介绍，截至5月5日21时，本次“五五购物节”准备的上汽集团旗下品牌车型，经过5轮补货，已经累积售出超过600台。\n另外，需要注意的是，抢购成功后，用户在线支付定金，后续经过4S店看车、身份核对等流程后，用户需在拼多多App支付尾款。这意味着，整个销售流程中，用户均通过拼多多App在线支付全款，且暂时没有信贷金融计划。\n如此特惠，必然会为拼多多再迎一波好口碑。除此之外，继续砸巨额补贴卖汽车，究竟还能为拼多多带来什么？\n为什么是“车”？\n拼多多表示，首批“五五购物节”低价汽车上线后，后续还将在5月和6月继续推出具有相当折扣力度的车型。这或许意味着，拼多多决心将砸补贴卖汽车进行到底。\n如若长此以往，拼多多的整车销售业务或将在连续补贴下，逐渐培养起用户心智。就像近期苹果推出新款iPhone SE后，大批量网友涌入拼多多官方微博、微信和App后台，喊话拼多多“安排百亿补贴”。这得益于拼多多将苹果手机纳入“百亿补贴”范围后，已在消费者心中形成诸如“苹果手机-百亿补贴”的深度捆绑。公开数据显示，2019年，拼多多“百亿补贴”专区累计售出超过200万台苹果手机，成为iPhone在中国市场最大的销售平台之一。\n在逐步建立用户心智的同时，平台整体客单价亦会随之上升。尤其是“五五购物节”中，用户需在拼多多App在线支付全款的操作更体现出拼多多欲由此提升平台客单价的目的。\n目前，拼多多App中的商品分类主要包括手机、水果、食品、百货、服装、鞋包等。相比之下，作为大宗消费品的汽车实属高客单价商品。随着线上卖车火热进行，用户越来越敢于在电商平台或直播平台进行汽车消费，平台的客单价也因此提升。以2019年宝沃汽车在淘宝直播卖车为例，官方数据显示，该场直播累计预定1623台，订单金额达2.2亿元。\n同时，增加汽车这一商品品类，有利于平台扩充产品组合，从而提升客单价。在2019年二季度财报电话会议上，拼多多战略副总裁九鼎就曾表示，拼多多可以提供越来越多的商品种类，新的特性能够更好地优化商品推荐，这使得拼多多的AOV（客单价）增长到了50元。\n2019年，拼多多全年GMV为10066亿元，订单量197亿，客单价约为51元，而2017、2018年拼多多的客单价分别为33元、42元。\n客单价提升的背后，实际上是拼多多争取一、二线城市用户的野心。在阿里、京东“惊觉”下沉市场用户价值后，已在下沉市场占据一定地位的拼多多则选择不断向高端消费品砸补贴以笼络一、二线城市用户。这体现在，包括iPhone、SK-II神仙水等高客单价商品均频繁出现在拼多多百亿补贴商品之列。\n不过，从年活跃用户，及年活跃用户人均消费额的数据来看，拼多多通过补贴高客单价商品以争夺一、二线城市用户的策略似乎远未达“理想状态”。在该等策略下，拼多多的年活跃用户数持续增长。2019年Q4，其年度活跃用户数达5.852亿，即将成为“6亿人都在使用的拼多多”，年活跃用户的人均消费额增加之1720.1元。即便如此，与主要客群为中高端用户的京东相比，拼多多仍然表现平平。2018至2019年，京东的年活跃用户数及其人均消费额的增速均逊于拼多多，但2019年京东的年活跃用户人均消费额（年GMV/年活跃用户数）达5760.77元，是拼多多的3.倍多。\n\n数据来源：拼多多、京东、智氪研究院（截至2020年4月20日）\n除了在客单价和消费人群上的考虑，更重要的是，作为传统线下销售的庞然大物，汽车这个品类的销售线上化还有足够的空间和潜力，这意味着，拼多多还有更多的机会。\n拼多多的盟友突围战？\n尽管按照拼多多的说法，此次就“五五购物节”与上汽集团达成的合作，是由上海市政府牵头达成的，并且是拼多多自己砸钱补贴卖车，但长远来看，二者的这一合作或许可以为拼多多的整车销售业务增加潜在供应链合作伙伴。\n中金公司在4月21日发布的研报中表示，鉴于拼多多平台已拥有逾5亿活跃购买用户，当务之急更在于建立稳定且多样化的供应商关系。\n一直以来，拼多多平台的商品都因“是否为正品”而饱受质疑。就连此次开卖凯迪拉克，拼多多也没能免遭质疑。上汽通用凯迪拉克市场营销部部长冯旦曾就此在朋友圈发文称“翻新车，假货”。不过，5月2日，凯迪拉克发表官方声明证实：经沟通核实，拼多多将联合凯迪拉克授权经销商百联集团推出5.5折抢购活动。\n尤其是在对高净值用户的争夺中，此类质疑的源头之一是相比阿里和京东，拼多多的品牌官方货源不足。\n以此前拼多多百亿补贴的34款精选商品为例，据智氪研究院统计，上述34款商品中，仅有6款是官方货源，其他均为各渠道货源。这在一定程度上加剧了外界对拼多多供货稳定性及商品真伪的质疑。\n\n图片来源：智氪研究院\n而就近期拼多多的一连串动作来看，其似乎正在通过与垂直领域龙头企业“结盟”的方式，加强商品的供应链网络，同时消除用户对平台商品真伪的顾虑。\n而拼多多的方针就是“谁遇到了困难，就和谁结盟”，总有在电商市场中过得不好的公司，而这些公司就是拼多多的潜在盟友。\n首先是近期与传统家电巨头国美零售的“结盟”。\n在家电市场向线上转移之前，国美和苏宁易购是线下家电市场的两大巨头。直到2015年苏宁易购与阿里合作向线上市场进军后，二者在家电市场的地位逐渐开始分化。从收入来看，2016-2019年，国美的营收则连续下滑，与苏宁的差距逐步拉大。\n\n图片来源：智氪研究院\n因此，对于国美来说，与拼多多的战略合作亦是其与老对手苏宁易购在家电线上市场交锋的关键砝码。在二者的合作中，拼多多将向国美注入消费大数据、平台流量等数字零售资源。\n对于拼多多来说，与国美的“结盟”后，将获得商品、供应链、物流、售后服务等方面的保障。无论终局如何，起码在家电及电子产品领域，拼多多终于有了“入赛资格”。\n显然，家电并不是拼多多理想国的终局，这一次拼多多又瞄准了汽车。\n疫情来袭后，本就不太景气的汽车销售市场如坠深渊。汽车工业协会数据显示，3月份全国汽车销量同比下降43%至143万辆，季度销量更是降至冰点，同比下降42%。\n而此时，拼多多作为新的线上销售渠道，和艰难度日的汽车品牌经销商达成合作可谓是水到渠成、各取所需。\n\n数据来源：汽车工业协会（截至2020年4月23日）\n\n数据来源：汽车工业协会（截至2020年4月23日）\n如若未来拼多多能与上汽集团达成进一步的深度合作，或将为其在电商平台整车销售的竞争中赢得更多的话语权。在美国《财富》杂志发布的2019“世界五百强”榜单中，共有6家中国汽车制造企业上榜，其中上汽集团排名最靠前，位列39名。其次还有东风汽车、一汽集团、北京汽车、广汽集团和吉利控股。\n而对于上汽集团来说，此次搭上拼多多或将在一定程度上促进其销量尽快回暖。按照凯迪拉克品牌官方表态的说法——“感谢拼多多在本次钜惠活动中选择凯迪拉克”。\n目前看来，尽管拼多多与上汽集团在此次“五五购物节”后是否还会展开更进一步的深度合作尚是未知，与国美的战略合作效果如何同样未知。\n但可以预见的是，拼多多似乎正在挖掘阿里或京东尚未“垄断”的商品领域，通过与这些垂直领域“待价而沽”的巨头“结盟”，从而在激烈竞争中寻求突围。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920550404,"gmtCreate":1585066483108,"gmtModify":1704356832191,"author":{"id":"3511907162407448","authorId":"3511907162407448","name":"JasonQu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511907162407448","authorIdStr":"3511907162407448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"未来还是很有潜力的 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