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10-31

真能扯淡

台积电(TSM)盘前跌逾1% 称已做好面对台风准备程序预期对运营影响不大

10-22

闲屁

"若中国大陆武统，全美国科技行业恐任其摆布"

07-17

模棱两可的胡猜乱想

Taiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance

2022-08-08

看到空，意味着要多

Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows

2022-07-16

押宝明年衰退

美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！

2021-12-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@英为财情:当前主导油价的居然是它！

2021-08-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@英为财情:美国7月非农竟“造假”？？？？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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ACC","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"281476","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2479774478","content_text":"金吾财讯 | 台积电(TSM)盘前走低，暂跌1.04%，报192.45美元。公司表示，面对超强台风“康妮”，公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序，预期对运营影响不大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362816356655344,"gmtCreate":1729600570903,"gmtModify":1729602225995,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"闲屁","listText":"闲屁","text":"闲屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362816356655344","repostId":"2477938333","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477938333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1729589400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2477938333?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-22 17:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"若中国大陆武统，全美国科技行业恐任其摆布\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477938333","media":"观察者网","summary":"对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为，中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调，美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步，反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态，坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color330\">► 文 观察者网 熊超然</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">“在前一代人心中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准，但如今都遭遇危机，更引发了国家性的紧急情况，让美国的实力被大幅削减。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">一段时间以来，上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”，岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出，还成为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>的收购目标；而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对这两家美企而言，被拆分或破产不再是不可能的事情。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">由此一系列展开，《华尔街日报》当地时间10月21日发布报道文章认为，在过去的五年里，英特尔和波音的总市值下降了一半，这不仅是对股东的考验，也是对美国的潜在灾难。文章坦言，这两家企业的陨落甚至都不是因为外国竞争者的冲击，而是“自甘堕落”、“自作自受”、“自掘坟墓”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这家美媒甚至“操心”起来，声称英特尔的节节败退不但会导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的发展壮大，而一旦中国大陆在未来几年“征服台湾”，整个美国科技行业可能会任对方摆布。</p><div><img cms-height=\"327.641\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/91/w1045h646/20241022/6412-d52984b28dc61f664c6cbdc614d392cb.jpg\"/><span>波音和英特尔logo 美媒资料图</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">文章开始便提到，中美两国的地缘政治竞争不仅仅是取决于比拼“谁拳头更大”的军事实力，还取决于经济和科技实力。正因如此，美国两党高层达成的共识是，推动加征关税以及补贴措施。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">然而，这些举措并不能解决英特尔和波音所存在的根本性问题，尽管美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品，但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1999年底，美国最有价值的10家公司中，有4家是制造业厂商。如今，这样的制造业厂商已经榜上无名。唯一的后起之秀是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，仅排名第11位。英特尔和波音曾一度是制造高质量、满足严格规格要求的开创性产品的金标典范，但现在已经不再是。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美媒“怒其不争”地指出，英特尔和波音的企业文化，早已逐渐演变为优先考虑财务业绩，而非卓越的工程设计，同样的问题，也导致另一个美国的“制造业偶像”——通用电气的衰落。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">由于觉得利润不够丰厚，英特尔放弃了为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>首款iPhone生产芯片的计划，而其在采用最新技术来蚀刻最小电路方面行动迟缓，因此错过了人工智能的蓬勃发展期。</p><div><img cms-height=\"380.281\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/574/w800h574/20241022/7ca2-d1c2c1eb24e8951eaf149cd5522b1274.jpg\"/><span>资料图：位于美国加利福尼亚州的英特尔公司总部IC Photo</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">波音则认为，借助软件在其畅销的737飞机上增加更高效的发动机会比完全重新设计或更换飞机更便宜、更快捷，然而这却导致了两起致命空难。新冠疫情大流行期间，其供应链的外包以及大量熟练机械师的流失，导致了质量问题频发以及生产延误。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">“既然他们的问题是自己造成的，那么任由他们自食其果，似乎是个不错的选择。投资者可能会不屑一顾地认为，英特尔的市值已不足1000亿美元，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、苹果和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>三家公司的市值总和高达10万亿美元。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》引出这段话，随后补充指出，可是问题在于，如果这些科技巨头没有委托制造的先进半导体，他们的软件和设备都将无用武之地，尤其是那些委托给台积电生产的半导体。该报随后“图穷匕见”地声称，如果中国大陆在未来几年内真的实现对台湾的“征服”，那么整个美国科技行业都将任由对方摆布。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》“暗自庆幸”称，虽然马斯克的SpaceX公司在太空运输方面已经超越了波音公司，但在大型商用客机方面，却没有本土的替代供应商。文章认为，一旦波音被踢出局，这一领域的业务将会落入其竞争对手空客公司之手，但最终迟早会落入中国商用飞机公司（简称中国商飞）之手，中国商飞目前正在交付其与波音737和空客A320的竞争机型——C919。</p><div><img cms-height=\"297.953\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/356/w740h416/20241022/ff0c-a38cc376f2f590b10c4a169e179ae7f9.png\"/><span>1月5日，阿拉斯加航空公司1282航班波音737 MAX 9型客机舱壁发生脱落。 社交媒体图</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美国信息技术与创新基金会（ITIF）主席罗伯特·阿特金森（Robert Atkinson）认为，英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚地区夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》则声称，欧洲政府都在“大力补贴”空客公司，中国则“不惜一切代价追求在关键技术上的主导地位”，而包括台积电这样的企业也从美国所谓的《芯片和科学法案》中获得66亿美元的补贴。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">不过，这篇文章也不得不承认，所谓《芯片和科学法案》鼓励台积电和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>在美国建厂，实际上帮助了美国的半导体厂商，这些美企都获得了补贴。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为，中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调，美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步，反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态，坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L  strong-Bold\">来源|观察者网</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"若中国大陆武统，全美国科技行业恐任其摆布\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-22 17:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-10-22/doc-inctmnkx8364651.shtml><strong>观察者网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>► 文 观察者网 熊超然“在前一代人心中，英特尔和波音在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准，但如今都遭遇危机，更引发了国家性的紧急情况，让美国的实力被大幅削减。”一段时间以来，上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”，岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出，还成为了高通的收购目标；而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-10-22/doc-inctmnkx8364651.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","AAPL":"苹果","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BA":"波音","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSM":"台积电","BK4591":"室温超导概念","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","INTC":"英特尔","BK4515":"5G概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-10-22/doc-inctmnkx8364651.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2477938333","content_text":"► 文 观察者网 熊超然“在前一代人心中，英特尔和波音在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准，但如今都遭遇危机，更引发了国家性的紧急情况，让美国的实力被大幅削减。”一段时间以来，上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”，岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出，还成为了高通的收购目标；而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对这两家美企而言，被拆分或破产不再是不可能的事情。由此一系列展开，《华尔街日报》当地时间10月21日发布报道文章认为，在过去的五年里，英特尔和波音的总市值下降了一半，这不仅是对股东的考验，也是对美国的潜在灾难。文章坦言，这两家企业的陨落甚至都不是因为外国竞争者的冲击，而是“自甘堕落”、“自作自受”、“自掘坟墓”。这家美媒甚至“操心”起来，声称英特尔的节节败退不但会导致台积电的发展壮大，而一旦中国大陆在未来几年“征服台湾”，整个美国科技行业可能会任对方摆布。波音和英特尔logo 美媒资料图文章开始便提到，中美两国的地缘政治竞争不仅仅是取决于比拼“谁拳头更大”的军事实力，还取决于经济和科技实力。正因如此，美国两党高层达成的共识是，推动加征关税以及补贴措施。然而，这些举措并不能解决英特尔和波音所存在的根本性问题，尽管美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品，但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。1999年底，美国最有价值的10家公司中，有4家是制造业厂商。如今，这样的制造业厂商已经榜上无名。唯一的后起之秀是特斯拉，仅排名第11位。英特尔和波音曾一度是制造高质量、满足严格规格要求的开创性产品的金标典范，但现在已经不再是。美媒“怒其不争”地指出，英特尔和波音的企业文化，早已逐渐演变为优先考虑财务业绩，而非卓越的工程设计，同样的问题，也导致另一个美国的“制造业偶像”——通用电气的衰落。由于觉得利润不够丰厚，英特尔放弃了为苹果首款iPhone生产芯片的计划，而其在采用最新技术来蚀刻最小电路方面行动迟缓，因此错过了人工智能的蓬勃发展期。资料图：位于美国加利福尼亚州的英特尔公司总部IC Photo波音则认为，借助软件在其畅销的737飞机上增加更高效的发动机会比完全重新设计或更换飞机更便宜、更快捷，然而这却导致了两起致命空难。新冠疫情大流行期间，其供应链的外包以及大量熟练机械师的流失，导致了质量问题频发以及生产延误。“既然他们的问题是自己造成的，那么任由他们自食其果，似乎是个不错的选择。投资者可能会不屑一顾地认为，英特尔的市值已不足1000亿美元，而微软、苹果和英伟达三家公司的市值总和高达10万亿美元。”《华尔街日报》引出这段话，随后补充指出，可是问题在于，如果这些科技巨头没有委托制造的先进半导体，他们的软件和设备都将无用武之地，尤其是那些委托给台积电生产的半导体。该报随后“图穷匕见”地声称，如果中国大陆在未来几年内真的实现对台湾的“征服”，那么整个美国科技行业都将任由对方摆布。《华尔街日报》“暗自庆幸”称，虽然马斯克的SpaceX公司在太空运输方面已经超越了波音公司，但在大型商用客机方面，却没有本土的替代供应商。文章认为，一旦波音被踢出局，这一领域的业务将会落入其竞争对手空客公司之手，但最终迟早会落入中国商用飞机公司（简称中国商飞）之手，中国商飞目前正在交付其与波音737和空客A320的竞争机型——C919。1月5日，阿拉斯加航空公司1282航班波音737 MAX 9型客机舱壁发生脱落。 社交媒体图美国信息技术与创新基金会（ITIF）主席罗伯特·阿特金森（Robert Atkinson）认为，英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚地区夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。《华尔街日报》则声称，欧洲政府都在“大力补贴”空客公司，中国则“不惜一切代价追求在关键技术上的主导地位”，而包括台积电这样的企业也从美国所谓的《芯片和科学法案》中获得66亿美元的补贴。不过，这篇文章也不得不承认，所谓《芯片和科学法案》鼓励台积电和三星在美国建厂，实际上帮助了美国的半导体厂商，这些美企都获得了补贴。对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为，中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调，美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步，反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态，坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。来源|观察者网\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328422669488408,"gmtCreate":1721195818941,"gmtModify":1721195820853,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","listText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","text":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328422669488408","repostId":"2451623297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2451623297","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1721115401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2451623297?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-16 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451623297","media":"GuruFocus.com","summary":"Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.  was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company's target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.</p><p>During my time writing and utilizing GuruFocus&#39; proprietary tools, I have come to trust the GF Value chart immensely. From my further research and analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor, there are significant drivers of sales and profitability expansion to come, and mitigation from geopolitical risks through global diversification of manufacturing. However, I believe the company&#39;s valuation multiples compared to history show reason to be cautious, especially when observing the potential overvaluation in other artificial intelligence-related companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at this time.</p><h2 id=\"id_2334291147\">Operational developments</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with TSM.</p></li></ul><p>The company is actively expanding its operations outside of Taiwan by building three fabrication facilities in Arizona over the next five years. Management said it is also building two plants in Japan over the next three years and has announced plans to jointly invest in European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Germany, with production targeted to begin by the end of 2027.</p><p>Taiwan Semiconductor continues to lead in advanced chip manufacturing and is developing a new chip-manufacturing technology called A16, which is expected to enter production in the second half of 2026. Management has also announced it is going to charge customers extra for manufacturing outside of Taiwan, as there are increased costs associated with new manufacturing sites like Arizona.</p><p>Starting this year, the company increased prices for its advanced process manufacturing by 3% to 6%. Major clients like Nvidia, Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) have shown a willingness to accept the price increases. This has led to many analysts raising price targets for the stock, with the company&#39;s long-term growth prospects being reinforced by the fact its higher pricing is likely to allow it to further develop its research and development and strengthen its moat.</p><p>In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company&#39;s target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years. It also expects AI-related revenue to potentially reach over 20% of its total revenue by 2028.</p><p>As CEO C.C. Wei said, &#34;Almost all the AI innovators are collaborating with TSMC to address the insatiable demand for energy-efficient computing power.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_2808749697\">Financial and valuation analysis</h2><p>Investors are anticipating future results with the current stock price growth the market has delivered, as the last year has actually seen both a revenue and net income contraction for Taiwan Semiconductor. In the first quarter, the company&#39;s revenue grew 16.50% year over year and its net income grew 8.90%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78ca857227cf2210b57520bfa2f70a40\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor holds over 60% of the global semiconductor foundry market, which is significantly ahead of its closest competitor, Samsung (SSNGY), which holds around 14%. Therefore, competition is much less of a problem than for most major tech businesses as the company&#39;s moat in manufacturing advanced semiconductors is unmatched anywhere in the world. In my opinion, this is likely to allow the company to continue to scale its profitability margins over the long term. These are already incredibly high, with a net margin of 38.75% at the time of writing compared to 7.37% for Samsung, but notably lower than Nvidia&#39;s net margin of 53.40%, which has recently overtaken Taiwan Semiconductor on the metric.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe7ad84013f53894a4665ab3ba29bac2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>Given its exceptional moat, a reasonable revenue CAGR for Taiwan Semiconductor is forecasted by leading analysts to be around 16% for the next five years. The earnings per share CAGR by analysts is expected to be around 24% over the next five years, which is indicative of the margin expansion opportunity I have outlined above. However, over the past five years, revenue has only grown at a CAGR of around 19% and earnings without non-recurring items at around 24% per annum. Therefore, a significant expansion in valuation multiples is unwarranted, in my opinion. Arguably, a slight expansion would be fair due to the potential for future exponential fundamental growth as a result of the company&#39;s continued support for AI systems, but this year, its valuation multiples have risen disproportionately to these near- and medium-term expected gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e419e1900abf3ae859f2a345009bd555\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>The chart above illustrates the concern I have that is preventing me from investing in the company at this time. It is further supported when we view the multiple expansion in tandem with future estimates, as depicted in the GF Value chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd83547b7d24b06723f6c663ac4ece1f\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>In my opinion, despite the strengths that management has been able to deliver in driving revenue growth and profitability margin increases recently, as well as future strategy positives such as a direction toward AI, the stock is still too richly priced at present levels. In my opinion, investors would be wise to avoid allocating capital until the valuation has become more reasonable.</p><p>A price-sales ratio of around 7 would be more reasonable at this time, which would allow some expansion against the 10-year median of 6 but not inflated to levels that have obviously become unrealistic. The current price-sales ratio is around 11. Based on this analysis, I think it is highly likely the stock will experience short-term to medium-term volatility, especially as 2026 nears, which is when analysts are expecting the company&#39;s fundamental growth to ease somewhat following the current high-growth period of the cycle.</p><h2 id=\"id_3397021643\">Risk analysis</h2><p>I have noticed in my previous research on Taiwan Semiconductor that geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan are a significant threat. However, this is being eased by management&#39;s focus on international fabrication facilities. In addition, I believe it is quite likely that Donald Trump will be elected in November to the White House, and I have a favorable opinion that he will be diplomatic and appeasing to Chinese interests. However, if Biden is elected, there is likely to be growing tension in international relations, in my opinion, as a result of the Democratic Party supporting NATO expansion, which is causing tension with Russia, China and Iran. The international expansion strategy by Taiwan Semiconductor to mitigate the geopolitical risk is shrewd, but it will be difficult for the company to replicate the Taiwan-based model in other markets, including due to cultural differences and increased production costs.</p><p>TSMC is also facing weakness in traditional markets like smartphones and PCs, although its AI-related demand is growing rapidly. This further reinforces my previous point that many of TSMC&#39;s core markets are already saturated, and its heavy reliance on AI markets moving forward opens up risks with regulatory inhibitions. In addition to these growth concerns, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry that is dependent on the demands of various technology companies. This ecosystem is largely prone to recessionary pressures as many of the advanced technologies are seen as luxuries rather than necessities. Furthermore, high capital intensity should be understood to also influence cyclicality for TSMC, with periods of large build-outs and development reducing margins temporarily and periods of production that are highly margin expansive due to the moats it develops in manufacturing capability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3058124213\">Conclusion</h2><p>In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor is positioning itself operationally to be one of the most enduring and powerful companies in the world over the next few decades. In the meantime, however, I believe it is incredibly important that investors take note of the valuation. Because the market understands the long-term value here, there are likely to be periods of irrational exuberance fueled by trends and heightened anticipation around sector growth in AI, robotics and automation. In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor&#39;s stock is overvalued right now and investors who allocated years ago or during 2022-23 would be wise to hold, but buying at the present valuation multiples seems likely to bring short-term to medium-term downside.</p><p>This article first appeared on GuruFocus. <br/></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-16 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html><strong>GuruFocus.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4543":"AI","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","TSM":"台积电","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2451623297","content_text":"Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.During my time writing and utilizing GuruFocus' proprietary tools, I have come to trust the GF Value chart immensely. From my further research and analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor, there are significant drivers of sales and profitability expansion to come, and mitigation from geopolitical risks through global diversification of manufacturing. However, I believe the company's valuation multiples compared to history show reason to be cautious, especially when observing the potential overvaluation in other artificial intelligence-related companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at this time.Operational developmentsWarning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with TSM.The company is actively expanding its operations outside of Taiwan by building three fabrication facilities in Arizona over the next five years. Management said it is also building two plants in Japan over the next three years and has announced plans to jointly invest in European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Germany, with production targeted to begin by the end of 2027.Taiwan Semiconductor continues to lead in advanced chip manufacturing and is developing a new chip-manufacturing technology called A16, which is expected to enter production in the second half of 2026. Management has also announced it is going to charge customers extra for manufacturing outside of Taiwan, as there are increased costs associated with new manufacturing sites like Arizona.Starting this year, the company increased prices for its advanced process manufacturing by 3% to 6%. Major clients like Nvidia, Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) have shown a willingness to accept the price increases. This has led to many analysts raising price targets for the stock, with the company's long-term growth prospects being reinforced by the fact its higher pricing is likely to allow it to further develop its research and development and strengthen its moat.In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company's target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years. It also expects AI-related revenue to potentially reach over 20% of its total revenue by 2028.As CEO C.C. Wei said, \"Almost all the AI innovators are collaborating with TSMC to address the insatiable demand for energy-efficient computing power.\"Financial and valuation analysisInvestors are anticipating future results with the current stock price growth the market has delivered, as the last year has actually seen both a revenue and net income contraction for Taiwan Semiconductor. In the first quarter, the company's revenue grew 16.50% year over year and its net income grew 8.90%.Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor holds over 60% of the global semiconductor foundry market, which is significantly ahead of its closest competitor, Samsung (SSNGY), which holds around 14%. Therefore, competition is much less of a problem than for most major tech businesses as the company's moat in manufacturing advanced semiconductors is unmatched anywhere in the world. In my opinion, this is likely to allow the company to continue to scale its profitability margins over the long term. These are already incredibly high, with a net margin of 38.75% at the time of writing compared to 7.37% for Samsung, but notably lower than Nvidia's net margin of 53.40%, which has recently overtaken Taiwan Semiconductor on the metric.Given its exceptional moat, a reasonable revenue CAGR for Taiwan Semiconductor is forecasted by leading analysts to be around 16% for the next five years. The earnings per share CAGR by analysts is expected to be around 24% over the next five years, which is indicative of the margin expansion opportunity I have outlined above. However, over the past five years, revenue has only grown at a CAGR of around 19% and earnings without non-recurring items at around 24% per annum. Therefore, a significant expansion in valuation multiples is unwarranted, in my opinion. Arguably, a slight expansion would be fair due to the potential for future exponential fundamental growth as a result of the company's continued support for AI systems, but this year, its valuation multiples have risen disproportionately to these near- and medium-term expected gains.The chart above illustrates the concern I have that is preventing me from investing in the company at this time. It is further supported when we view the multiple expansion in tandem with future estimates, as depicted in the GF Value chart:In my opinion, despite the strengths that management has been able to deliver in driving revenue growth and profitability margin increases recently, as well as future strategy positives such as a direction toward AI, the stock is still too richly priced at present levels. In my opinion, investors would be wise to avoid allocating capital until the valuation has become more reasonable.A price-sales ratio of around 7 would be more reasonable at this time, which would allow some expansion against the 10-year median of 6 but not inflated to levels that have obviously become unrealistic. The current price-sales ratio is around 11. Based on this analysis, I think it is highly likely the stock will experience short-term to medium-term volatility, especially as 2026 nears, which is when analysts are expecting the company's fundamental growth to ease somewhat following the current high-growth period of the cycle.Risk analysisI have noticed in my previous research on Taiwan Semiconductor that geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan are a significant threat. However, this is being eased by management's focus on international fabrication facilities. In addition, I believe it is quite likely that Donald Trump will be elected in November to the White House, and I have a favorable opinion that he will be diplomatic and appeasing to Chinese interests. However, if Biden is elected, there is likely to be growing tension in international relations, in my opinion, as a result of the Democratic Party supporting NATO expansion, which is causing tension with Russia, China and Iran. The international expansion strategy by Taiwan Semiconductor to mitigate the geopolitical risk is shrewd, but it will be difficult for the company to replicate the Taiwan-based model in other markets, including due to cultural differences and increased production costs.TSMC is also facing weakness in traditional markets like smartphones and PCs, although its AI-related demand is growing rapidly. This further reinforces my previous point that many of TSMC's core markets are already saturated, and its heavy reliance on AI markets moving forward opens up risks with regulatory inhibitions. In addition to these growth concerns, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry that is dependent on the demands of various technology companies. This ecosystem is largely prone to recessionary pressures as many of the advanced technologies are seen as luxuries rather than necessities. Furthermore, high capital intensity should be understood to also influence cyclicality for TSMC, with periods of large build-outs and development reducing margins temporarily and periods of production that are highly margin expansive due to the moats it develops in manufacturing capability.ConclusionIn my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor is positioning itself operationally to be one of the most enduring and powerful companies in the world over the next few decades. In the meantime, however, I believe it is incredibly important that investors take note of the valuation. Because the market understands the long-term value here, there are likely to be periods of irrational exuberance fueled by trends and heightened anticipation around sector growth in AI, robotics and automation. In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor's stock is overvalued right now and investors who allocated years ago or during 2022-23 would be wise to hold, but buying at the present valuation multiples seems likely to bring short-term to medium-term downside.This article first appeared on GuruFocus.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685775000,"gmtCreate":1659966420002,"gmtModify":1659966420002,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到空，意味着要多","listText":"看到空，意味着要多","text":"看到空，意味着要多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685775000","repostId":"1156938348","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156938348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659754928,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156938348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156938348","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>A pandemic-era high-flier,<b>Snap</b>(<b>SNAP</b>) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.</li><li>This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case.</li><li>With growth deceleration likely to continue, this social media stock could continue to fall in price.</li></ul><p>It’s been a tough year for tech stocks. Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With <b>Snap</b>(NYSE:<b>SNAP</b>), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.</p><p>On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.</p><p>Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.</p><p><b>How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market Graveyard</b></p><p>Macro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).</p><p>Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.</p><p>This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.</p><p>Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.</p><p><b>Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings Release</b></p><p>On May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.</p><p>Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.</p><p>While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.</p><p>Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.</p><p><b>The Takeaway With SNAP Stock</b></p><p>As Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.</p><p>The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of <b>Apple’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.</p><p>The second, rising competition. Rival platform <b>TikTok</b> could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.</p><p>As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.</p><p>SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my <i>Portfolio Grader</i>.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156938348","content_text":"A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case.With growth deceleration likely to continue, this social media stock could continue to fall in price.It’s been a tough year for tech stocks. Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With Snap(NYSE:SNAP), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market GraveyardMacro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings ReleaseOn May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.The Takeaway With SNAP StockAs Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.The second, rising competition. Rival platform TikTok could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my Portfolio Grader.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686048298,"gmtCreate":1657936083017,"gmtModify":1704868716360,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"押宝明年衰退","listText":"押宝明年衰退","text":"押宝明年衰退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686048298","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174033197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：叶桢</p><p>隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。</p><p>周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。</p><p>Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。</p><p>Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。</p><p>那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？</p><p>明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表</p><p>周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，<b>大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。</b></p><p>同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：</p><blockquote>鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：</p><blockquote>因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。</blockquote><p>Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：</p><blockquote>美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率&#34;正常化&#34;，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。</blockquote><p>Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:</p><blockquote>由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。</blockquote><p>至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：</p><blockquote>与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 11:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699272898,"gmtCreate":1639826084917,"gmtModify":1639826252194,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699272898","repostId":"699249566","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":699249566,"gmtCreate":1639821120000,"gmtModify":1639825460685,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489725211341675","authorIdStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"当前主导油价的居然是它！","htmlText":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。&nbsp; 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升；&nbsp;此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。&nbsp; 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","listText":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。&nbsp; 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升；&nbsp;此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。&nbsp; 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","text":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升； 此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c1b9a03a1a4b23a2fe28c04f513b20","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699249566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892440396,"gmtCreate":1628686285615,"gmtModify":1628686487499,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892440396","repostId":"892641918","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":892641918,"gmtCreate":1628594340000,"gmtModify":1628660331151,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489725211341675","authorIdStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"美国7月非农竟“造假”？？？？","htmlText":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","listText":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b34eac3fa5544069f87333378bea87a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892641918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":362816356655344,"gmtCreate":1729600570903,"gmtModify":1729602225995,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"闲屁","listText":"闲屁","text":"闲屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362816356655344","repostId":"2477938333","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365942568136896,"gmtCreate":1730367590530,"gmtModify":1730368474639,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真能扯淡","listText":"真能扯淡","text":"真能扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365942568136896","repostId":"2479774478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328422669488408,"gmtCreate":1721195818941,"gmtModify":1721195820853,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","listText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","text":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328422669488408","repostId":"2451623297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2451623297","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1721115401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2451623297?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-16 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451623297","media":"GuruFocus.com","summary":"Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.  was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company's target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.</p><p>During my time writing and utilizing GuruFocus&#39; proprietary tools, I have come to trust the GF Value chart immensely. From my further research and analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor, there are significant drivers of sales and profitability expansion to come, and mitigation from geopolitical risks through global diversification of manufacturing. However, I believe the company&#39;s valuation multiples compared to history show reason to be cautious, especially when observing the potential overvaluation in other artificial intelligence-related companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at this time.</p><h2 id=\"id_2334291147\">Operational developments</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with TSM.</p></li></ul><p>The company is actively expanding its operations outside of Taiwan by building three fabrication facilities in Arizona over the next five years. Management said it is also building two plants in Japan over the next three years and has announced plans to jointly invest in European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Germany, with production targeted to begin by the end of 2027.</p><p>Taiwan Semiconductor continues to lead in advanced chip manufacturing and is developing a new chip-manufacturing technology called A16, which is expected to enter production in the second half of 2026. Management has also announced it is going to charge customers extra for manufacturing outside of Taiwan, as there are increased costs associated with new manufacturing sites like Arizona.</p><p>Starting this year, the company increased prices for its advanced process manufacturing by 3% to 6%. Major clients like Nvidia, Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) have shown a willingness to accept the price increases. This has led to many analysts raising price targets for the stock, with the company&#39;s long-term growth prospects being reinforced by the fact its higher pricing is likely to allow it to further develop its research and development and strengthen its moat.</p><p>In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company&#39;s target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years. It also expects AI-related revenue to potentially reach over 20% of its total revenue by 2028.</p><p>As CEO C.C. Wei said, &#34;Almost all the AI innovators are collaborating with TSMC to address the insatiable demand for energy-efficient computing power.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_2808749697\">Financial and valuation analysis</h2><p>Investors are anticipating future results with the current stock price growth the market has delivered, as the last year has actually seen both a revenue and net income contraction for Taiwan Semiconductor. In the first quarter, the company&#39;s revenue grew 16.50% year over year and its net income grew 8.90%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78ca857227cf2210b57520bfa2f70a40\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor holds over 60% of the global semiconductor foundry market, which is significantly ahead of its closest competitor, Samsung (SSNGY), which holds around 14%. Therefore, competition is much less of a problem than for most major tech businesses as the company&#39;s moat in manufacturing advanced semiconductors is unmatched anywhere in the world. In my opinion, this is likely to allow the company to continue to scale its profitability margins over the long term. These are already incredibly high, with a net margin of 38.75% at the time of writing compared to 7.37% for Samsung, but notably lower than Nvidia&#39;s net margin of 53.40%, which has recently overtaken Taiwan Semiconductor on the metric.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe7ad84013f53894a4665ab3ba29bac2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>Given its exceptional moat, a reasonable revenue CAGR for Taiwan Semiconductor is forecasted by leading analysts to be around 16% for the next five years. The earnings per share CAGR by analysts is expected to be around 24% over the next five years, which is indicative of the margin expansion opportunity I have outlined above. However, over the past five years, revenue has only grown at a CAGR of around 19% and earnings without non-recurring items at around 24% per annum. Therefore, a significant expansion in valuation multiples is unwarranted, in my opinion. Arguably, a slight expansion would be fair due to the potential for future exponential fundamental growth as a result of the company&#39;s continued support for AI systems, but this year, its valuation multiples have risen disproportionately to these near- and medium-term expected gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e419e1900abf3ae859f2a345009bd555\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p>The chart above illustrates the concern I have that is preventing me from investing in the company at this time. It is further supported when we view the multiple expansion in tandem with future estimates, as depicted in the GF Value chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd83547b7d24b06723f6c663ac4ece1f\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>In my opinion, despite the strengths that management has been able to deliver in driving revenue growth and profitability margin increases recently, as well as future strategy positives such as a direction toward AI, the stock is still too richly priced at present levels. In my opinion, investors would be wise to avoid allocating capital until the valuation has become more reasonable.</p><p>A price-sales ratio of around 7 would be more reasonable at this time, which would allow some expansion against the 10-year median of 6 but not inflated to levels that have obviously become unrealistic. The current price-sales ratio is around 11. Based on this analysis, I think it is highly likely the stock will experience short-term to medium-term volatility, especially as 2026 nears, which is when analysts are expecting the company&#39;s fundamental growth to ease somewhat following the current high-growth period of the cycle.</p><h2 id=\"id_3397021643\">Risk analysis</h2><p>I have noticed in my previous research on Taiwan Semiconductor that geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan are a significant threat. However, this is being eased by management&#39;s focus on international fabrication facilities. In addition, I believe it is quite likely that Donald Trump will be elected in November to the White House, and I have a favorable opinion that he will be diplomatic and appeasing to Chinese interests. However, if Biden is elected, there is likely to be growing tension in international relations, in my opinion, as a result of the Democratic Party supporting NATO expansion, which is causing tension with Russia, China and Iran. The international expansion strategy by Taiwan Semiconductor to mitigate the geopolitical risk is shrewd, but it will be difficult for the company to replicate the Taiwan-based model in other markets, including due to cultural differences and increased production costs.</p><p>TSMC is also facing weakness in traditional markets like smartphones and PCs, although its AI-related demand is growing rapidly. This further reinforces my previous point that many of TSMC&#39;s core markets are already saturated, and its heavy reliance on AI markets moving forward opens up risks with regulatory inhibitions. In addition to these growth concerns, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry that is dependent on the demands of various technology companies. This ecosystem is largely prone to recessionary pressures as many of the advanced technologies are seen as luxuries rather than necessities. Furthermore, high capital intensity should be understood to also influence cyclicality for TSMC, with periods of large build-outs and development reducing margins temporarily and periods of production that are highly margin expansive due to the moats it develops in manufacturing capability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3058124213\">Conclusion</h2><p>In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor is positioning itself operationally to be one of the most enduring and powerful companies in the world over the next few decades. In the meantime, however, I believe it is incredibly important that investors take note of the valuation. Because the market understands the long-term value here, there are likely to be periods of irrational exuberance fueled by trends and heightened anticipation around sector growth in AI, robotics and automation. In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor&#39;s stock is overvalued right now and investors who allocated years ago or during 2022-23 would be wise to hold, but buying at the present valuation multiples seems likely to bring short-term to medium-term downside.</p><p>This article first appeared on GuruFocus. <br/></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Overvalued Amid AI Exuberance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-16 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html><strong>GuruFocus.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4543":"AI","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","TSM":"台积电","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-overvalued-amid-ai-140003137.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2451623297","content_text":"Toward the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) was trading at exceptionally attractive valuations. However, now the GF Value chart is showing the stock to be significantly overvalued.During my time writing and utilizing GuruFocus' proprietary tools, I have come to trust the GF Value chart immensely. From my further research and analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor, there are significant drivers of sales and profitability expansion to come, and mitigation from geopolitical risks through global diversification of manufacturing. However, I believe the company's valuation multiples compared to history show reason to be cautious, especially when observing the potential overvaluation in other artificial intelligence-related companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at this time.Operational developmentsWarning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with TSM.The company is actively expanding its operations outside of Taiwan by building three fabrication facilities in Arizona over the next five years. Management said it is also building two plants in Japan over the next three years and has announced plans to jointly invest in European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Germany, with production targeted to begin by the end of 2027.Taiwan Semiconductor continues to lead in advanced chip manufacturing and is developing a new chip-manufacturing technology called A16, which is expected to enter production in the second half of 2026. Management has also announced it is going to charge customers extra for manufacturing outside of Taiwan, as there are increased costs associated with new manufacturing sites like Arizona.Starting this year, the company increased prices for its advanced process manufacturing by 3% to 6%. Major clients like Nvidia, Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) have shown a willingness to accept the price increases. This has led to many analysts raising price targets for the stock, with the company's long-term growth prospects being reinforced by the fact its higher pricing is likely to allow it to further develop its research and development and strengthen its moat.In my opinion, these developments certainly add to the security of investing in Taiwan Semiconductor. However, one has to remember that the company's target market is already mature. Therefore, while AI markets are developing and HPC chips are likely to become more in demand as digitalization scales globally, Taiwan Semiconductor is unable to deliver the high growth that is more likely to occur in newer AI and semiconductor intellectual property companies. In addition, regulatory inhibitions surrounding AI and automation could inhibit growth in these sectors, which are predicted to be highly accretive to the company. That being said, Taiwan Semiconductor expects its AI-related revenue to double in 2024 and grow at a 50% compound annual rate over the next five years. It also expects AI-related revenue to potentially reach over 20% of its total revenue by 2028.As CEO C.C. Wei said, \"Almost all the AI innovators are collaborating with TSMC to address the insatiable demand for energy-efficient computing power.\"Financial and valuation analysisInvestors are anticipating future results with the current stock price growth the market has delivered, as the last year has actually seen both a revenue and net income contraction for Taiwan Semiconductor. In the first quarter, the company's revenue grew 16.50% year over year and its net income grew 8.90%.Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor holds over 60% of the global semiconductor foundry market, which is significantly ahead of its closest competitor, Samsung (SSNGY), which holds around 14%. Therefore, competition is much less of a problem than for most major tech businesses as the company's moat in manufacturing advanced semiconductors is unmatched anywhere in the world. In my opinion, this is likely to allow the company to continue to scale its profitability margins over the long term. These are already incredibly high, with a net margin of 38.75% at the time of writing compared to 7.37% for Samsung, but notably lower than Nvidia's net margin of 53.40%, which has recently overtaken Taiwan Semiconductor on the metric.Given its exceptional moat, a reasonable revenue CAGR for Taiwan Semiconductor is forecasted by leading analysts to be around 16% for the next five years. The earnings per share CAGR by analysts is expected to be around 24% over the next five years, which is indicative of the margin expansion opportunity I have outlined above. However, over the past five years, revenue has only grown at a CAGR of around 19% and earnings without non-recurring items at around 24% per annum. Therefore, a significant expansion in valuation multiples is unwarranted, in my opinion. Arguably, a slight expansion would be fair due to the potential for future exponential fundamental growth as a result of the company's continued support for AI systems, but this year, its valuation multiples have risen disproportionately to these near- and medium-term expected gains.The chart above illustrates the concern I have that is preventing me from investing in the company at this time. It is further supported when we view the multiple expansion in tandem with future estimates, as depicted in the GF Value chart:In my opinion, despite the strengths that management has been able to deliver in driving revenue growth and profitability margin increases recently, as well as future strategy positives such as a direction toward AI, the stock is still too richly priced at present levels. In my opinion, investors would be wise to avoid allocating capital until the valuation has become more reasonable.A price-sales ratio of around 7 would be more reasonable at this time, which would allow some expansion against the 10-year median of 6 but not inflated to levels that have obviously become unrealistic. The current price-sales ratio is around 11. Based on this analysis, I think it is highly likely the stock will experience short-term to medium-term volatility, especially as 2026 nears, which is when analysts are expecting the company's fundamental growth to ease somewhat following the current high-growth period of the cycle.Risk analysisI have noticed in my previous research on Taiwan Semiconductor that geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan are a significant threat. However, this is being eased by management's focus on international fabrication facilities. In addition, I believe it is quite likely that Donald Trump will be elected in November to the White House, and I have a favorable opinion that he will be diplomatic and appeasing to Chinese interests. However, if Biden is elected, there is likely to be growing tension in international relations, in my opinion, as a result of the Democratic Party supporting NATO expansion, which is causing tension with Russia, China and Iran. The international expansion strategy by Taiwan Semiconductor to mitigate the geopolitical risk is shrewd, but it will be difficult for the company to replicate the Taiwan-based model in other markets, including due to cultural differences and increased production costs.TSMC is also facing weakness in traditional markets like smartphones and PCs, although its AI-related demand is growing rapidly. This further reinforces my previous point that many of TSMC's core markets are already saturated, and its heavy reliance on AI markets moving forward opens up risks with regulatory inhibitions. In addition to these growth concerns, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry that is dependent on the demands of various technology companies. This ecosystem is largely prone to recessionary pressures as many of the advanced technologies are seen as luxuries rather than necessities. Furthermore, high capital intensity should be understood to also influence cyclicality for TSMC, with periods of large build-outs and development reducing margins temporarily and periods of production that are highly margin expansive due to the moats it develops in manufacturing capability.ConclusionIn my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor is positioning itself operationally to be one of the most enduring and powerful companies in the world over the next few decades. In the meantime, however, I believe it is incredibly important that investors take note of the valuation. Because the market understands the long-term value here, there are likely to be periods of irrational exuberance fueled by trends and heightened anticipation around sector growth in AI, robotics and automation. In my opinion, Taiwan Semiconductor's stock is overvalued right now and investors who allocated years ago or during 2022-23 would be wise to hold, but buying at the present valuation multiples seems likely to bring short-term to medium-term downside.This article first appeared on GuruFocus.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685775000,"gmtCreate":1659966420002,"gmtModify":1659966420002,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到空，意味着要多","listText":"看到空，意味着要多","text":"看到空，意味着要多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685775000","repostId":"1156938348","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686048298,"gmtCreate":1657936083017,"gmtModify":1704868716360,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"押宝明年衰退","listText":"押宝明年衰退","text":"押宝明年衰退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686048298","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174033197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：叶桢</p><p>隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。</p><p>周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。</p><p>Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。</p><p>Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。</p><p>那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？</p><p>明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表</p><p>周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，<b>大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。</b></p><p>同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：</p><blockquote>鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：</p><blockquote>因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。</blockquote><p>Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：</p><blockquote>美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率&#34;正常化&#34;，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。</blockquote><p>Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:</p><blockquote>由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。</blockquote><p>至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：</p><blockquote>与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 11:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699272898,"gmtCreate":1639826084917,"gmtModify":1639826252194,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699272898","repostId":"699249566","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":699249566,"gmtCreate":1639821120000,"gmtModify":1639825460685,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489725211341675","authorIdStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"当前主导油价的居然是它！","htmlText":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。&nbsp; 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升；&nbsp;此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。&nbsp; 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","listText":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。&nbsp; 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升；&nbsp;此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。&nbsp; 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","text":"01 随着年底的临近，通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题，但对交易员来说，了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加，并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大，但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨，甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%，是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数（PPI）的增长率甚至更高，达到9.6%。 （美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率，来自Investing.com“财经日历”） 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧，就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度，它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时，油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升； 此外，他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此，他们必须把价格提高才行，这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月，在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后，我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时，其它产油国就会面临更大的压力，以更高的价格出售石油，因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年，石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格，才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始，疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁，担心可能会继续增加旅行限制，担心美国主要大学的关闭，以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称，油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元，尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大幅抛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c1b9a03a1a4b23a2fe28c04f513b20","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699249566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892440396,"gmtCreate":1628686285615,"gmtModify":1628686487499,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892440396","repostId":"892641918","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":892641918,"gmtCreate":1628594340000,"gmtModify":1628660331151,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489725211341675","authorIdStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"美国7月非农竟“造假”？？？？","htmlText":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","listText":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？ 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b34eac3fa5544069f87333378bea87a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892641918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}