爽哥美股的个人主页 - 老虎社区

爽哥美股

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2021-12-17

$拼多多(PDD)$这股也就值个10块钱

2021-10-16

$360数科(QFIN)$机构天天看好为什么老是跌？

2021-10-14

$360数科(QFIN)$和金蝶合作利好为什么跌？

2021-10-04

$360数科(QFIN)$被人做空了嗨

2021-09-17

$360数科(QFIN)$20本次调整最低位置，20是整数关口

2020-03-26

美国有什么风险？没有风险

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-25

川普现在低吸了股票，他现在全力做多，等到3万点的时候大家要撤退了，那个时候川普要做空了，要继续贸易战了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-18

特使拉来了，感觉蔚来不好过

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-11-27

$360金融(QFIN)$ 天天做空，财报这么好做空有有用吗？

2019-08-31

$360金融(QFIN)$ 调整的差不多了，没有永远跌的股票

2019-05-09

$拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多感觉还不如360金融

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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拼多多感觉还不如360金融","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/901069620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820351747,"gmtCreate":1633355194992,"gmtModify":1633355194992,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">$360数科(QFIN)$</a>被人做空了嗨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">$360数科(QFIN)$</a>被人做空了嗨","text":"$360数科(QFIN)$被人做空了嗨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820351747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699033838,"gmtCreate":1639719284027,"gmtModify":1639719284027,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>这股也就值个10块钱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>这股也就值个10块钱","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$这股也就值个10块钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699033838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824253786,"gmtCreate":1634321099489,"gmtModify":1634321099489,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">$360数科(QFIN)$</a>机构天天看好为什么老是跌？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">$360数科(QFIN)$</a>机构天天看好为什么老是跌？","text":"$360数科(QFIN)$机构天天看好为什么老是跌？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824253786","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929378235,"gmtCreate":1585234991027,"gmtModify":1704357548957,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国有什么风险？没有风险","listText":"美国有什么风险？没有风险","text":"美国有什么风险？没有风险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929378235","repostId":"1125660706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920468078,"gmtCreate":1585110336994,"gmtModify":1704356940361,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川普现在低吸了股票，他现在全力做多，等到3万点的时候大家要撤退了，那个时候川普要做空了，要继续贸易战了","listText":"川普现在低吸了股票，他现在全力做多，等到3万点的时候大家要撤退了，那个时候川普要做空了，要继续贸易战了","text":"川普现在低吸了股票，他现在全力做多，等到3万点的时候大家要撤退了，那个时候川普要做空了，要继续贸易战了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920468078","repostId":"1133028950","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133028950","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1585103808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133028950?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-25 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133028950","media":"格隆汇","summary":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市","content":"<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-25 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133028950","content_text":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。\n两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。\n消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：\n（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；\n（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。\n但是更本质的，在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌到底的征兆。\n比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），即总跌幅接近50%之后，出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。\n\n1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind\n如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。\n\n2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind\n但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。\n\n1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind\n今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。\n无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。\n隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。\n摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。\n有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。\n我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万。\n这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。\n\n海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻\n时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。\n还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。\n还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967398925,"gmtCreate":1584534890267,"gmtModify":1704354694887,"author":{"id":"3506643395185806","authorId":"3506643395185806","name":"爽哥美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506643395185806","authorIdStr":"3506643395185806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特使拉来了，感觉蔚来不好过","listText":"特使拉来了，感觉蔚来不好过","text":"特使拉来了，感觉蔚来不好过","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967398925","repostId":"1111459293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111459293","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1584531112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111459293?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-18 19:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来2019年净亏损114.13亿元，盘前暴跌超22%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111459293","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"蔚来公司预计2020年第一季度营收在12.1-12.7亿元之间，此前预估为24.8亿元。","content":"<p>3月18日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前大跌超22%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32035c130e768bce9d6f7ac2aeee676\" /></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2215843277942459%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">直播：蔚来四季度及全年财报电话会议</a></p><p>今日<span>蔚来公司发布了2019年四季度及全年财报：</span>2019年<span>第四季度，</span><b><span>蔚来汽车总营收为人民币28.483亿元（约合4.091亿美元），环比增长55.1%，同比增长17.1%。净亏损为人民币28.646亿元（约合4.115亿美元），环比增长13.6%，同比下滑18.2%</span></b><span>。不按美国通用会计准则（non-GAAP），净亏损为人民币28.134亿元（约合4.041亿美元），环比增长14.8%，同比下滑16.3%。</span></p><p><span>2019年全年营收78.25亿元，市场预期79.51亿元，上年为49.51亿元。2019年净亏损114.13亿元，市场预期亏损108.19亿元，上年亏损233.28亿元。</span></p><p>2019年共交付20565辆汽车，上年为11348辆。</p><p><b>蔚来公司预计2020年第一季度营收在12.1-12.7亿元之间，此前预估为24.8亿元</b>。</p><p><b>高管解读</b></p><p>蔚来CEO李斌表示：我们在2019年第四季度合计交付了8,224辆ES8和ES6车辆，比上一季度增长71.4％。2019年ES8和ES6的累计交付量达到20,565，比2018年增长81.2％。 作为来自中国的领先的高级智能电动汽车品牌，截至2020年2月，我们自豪地为中国296个城市的34,218名NIO用户提供服务。我们的ES6自2019年10月发布以来，连续第五个月位居中国电动SUV销量第一。</p><p>“由于COVID-19爆发，我们在充满挑战的环境中开始了2020年。在我们将全球员工的安全和健康放在首位。同时我们的团队努力恢复生产，扩大我们的交通渠道，整合我们的在线和离线销售工作并提供可能的最佳服务，以使业务和运营恢复正常。展望2020年，我们有信心将生产出中国最具竞争力的电动SUV，包括ES6，全新ES8和EC6，以及更全面的电池和电源解决方案。我们很高兴看到不断增长的用户社区成为我们品牌和业务增长的重要组成部分。我们在中国的59个城市拥有22个NIO house和62个NIO space，这有效地支持了我们的品牌推广和销售工作。我们已做好充分准备，可以逆风前进，并在2020年变得更加强大。”李斌说。</p><p>蔚来汽车首席财务官魏锋补充说：“我们对2019年第四季度的财务表现感到满意，收入比上一季度增长了55.1％。我们为优化组织结构和提高运营效率付出了巨大的努力，这导致第四季度出现了一笔一次性支出。但是，我们相信，这些努力将大大减少我们的运营费用，并改善2020年及以后的现金流量。我们将继续提高所有业务领域的运营效率，以在未来为我们的利润率带来积极变化。“</p><p>“此外，我们在2020年2月和2020年3月进行了几次私募可转换票据，本金总额为4.35亿美元，这为我们的日常运营和业务发展提供了支持。 2020年2月25日，我们与安徽省合肥市政府签订了合作框架协议。安徽省合肥市政府希望为NIO提供资源和资金支持，以在我们的长期发展中在合肥建立NIO中国总部。双方正在研究将要签署的具有法律约束力的最终文件。”CFO补充道。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来2019年净亏损114.13亿元，盘前暴跌超22%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来2019年净亏损114.13亿元，盘前暴跌超22%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-18 19:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月18日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前大跌超22%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32035c130e768bce9d6f7ac2aeee676\" /></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2215843277942459%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">直播：蔚来四季度及全年财报电话会议</a></p><p>今日<span>蔚来公司发布了2019年四季度及全年财报：</span>2019年<span>第四季度，</span><b><span>蔚来汽车总营收为人民币28.483亿元（约合4.091亿美元），环比增长55.1%，同比增长17.1%。净亏损为人民币28.646亿元（约合4.115亿美元），环比增长13.6%，同比下滑18.2%</span></b><span>。不按美国通用会计准则（non-GAAP），净亏损为人民币28.134亿元（约合4.041亿美元），环比增长14.8%，同比下滑16.3%。</span></p><p><span>2019年全年营收78.25亿元，市场预期79.51亿元，上年为49.51亿元。2019年净亏损114.13亿元，市场预期亏损108.19亿元，上年亏损233.28亿元。</span></p><p>2019年共交付20565辆汽车，上年为11348辆。</p><p><b>蔚来公司预计2020年第一季度营收在12.1-12.7亿元之间，此前预估为24.8亿元</b>。</p><p><b>高管解读</b></p><p>蔚来CEO李斌表示：我们在2019年第四季度合计交付了8,224辆ES8和ES6车辆，比上一季度增长71.4％。2019年ES8和ES6的累计交付量达到20,565，比2018年增长81.2％。 作为来自中国的领先的高级智能电动汽车品牌，截至2020年2月，我们自豪地为中国296个城市的34,218名NIO用户提供服务。我们的ES6自2019年10月发布以来，连续第五个月位居中国电动SUV销量第一。</p><p>“由于COVID-19爆发，我们在充满挑战的环境中开始了2020年。在我们将全球员工的安全和健康放在首位。同时我们的团队努力恢复生产，扩大我们的交通渠道，整合我们的在线和离线销售工作并提供可能的最佳服务，以使业务和运营恢复正常。展望2020年，我们有信心将生产出中国最具竞争力的电动SUV，包括ES6，全新ES8和EC6，以及更全面的电池和电源解决方案。我们很高兴看到不断增长的用户社区成为我们品牌和业务增长的重要组成部分。我们在中国的59个城市拥有22个NIO house和62个NIO space，这有效地支持了我们的品牌推广和销售工作。我们已做好充分准备，可以逆风前进，并在2020年变得更加强大。”李斌说。</p><p>蔚来汽车首席财务官魏锋补充说：“我们对2019年第四季度的财务表现感到满意，收入比上一季度增长了55.1％。我们为优化组织结构和提高运营效率付出了巨大的努力，这导致第四季度出现了一笔一次性支出。但是，我们相信，这些努力将大大减少我们的运营费用，并改善2020年及以后的现金流量。我们将继续提高所有业务领域的运营效率，以在未来为我们的利润率带来积极变化。“</p><p>“此外，我们在2020年2月和2020年3月进行了几次私募可转换票据，本金总额为4.35亿美元，这为我们的日常运营和业务发展提供了支持。 2020年2月25日，我们与安徽省合肥市政府签订了合作框架协议。安徽省合肥市政府希望为NIO提供资源和资金支持，以在我们的长期发展中在合肥建立NIO中国总部。双方正在研究将要签署的具有法律约束力的最终文件。”CFO补充道。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebab619623966f6e7115434f653b888","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111459293","content_text":"3月18日，蔚来盘前大跌超22%。直播：蔚来四季度及全年财报电话会议今日蔚来公司发布了2019年四季度及全年财报：2019年第四季度，蔚来汽车总营收为人民币28.483亿元（约合4.091亿美元），环比增长55.1%，同比增长17.1%。净亏损为人民币28.646亿元（约合4.115亿美元），环比增长13.6%，同比下滑18.2%。不按美国通用会计准则（non-GAAP），净亏损为人民币28.134亿元（约合4.041亿美元），环比增长14.8%，同比下滑16.3%。2019年全年营收78.25亿元，市场预期79.51亿元，上年为49.51亿元。2019年净亏损114.13亿元，市场预期亏损108.19亿元，上年亏损233.28亿元。2019年共交付20565辆汽车，上年为11348辆。蔚来公司预计2020年第一季度营收在12.1-12.7亿元之间，此前预估为24.8亿元。高管解读蔚来CEO李斌表示：我们在2019年第四季度合计交付了8,224辆ES8和ES6车辆，比上一季度增长71.4％。2019年ES8和ES6的累计交付量达到20,565，比2018年增长81.2％。 作为来自中国的领先的高级智能电动汽车品牌，截至2020年2月，我们自豪地为中国296个城市的34,218名NIO用户提供服务。我们的ES6自2019年10月发布以来，连续第五个月位居中国电动SUV销量第一。“由于COVID-19爆发，我们在充满挑战的环境中开始了2020年。在我们将全球员工的安全和健康放在首位。同时我们的团队努力恢复生产，扩大我们的交通渠道，整合我们的在线和离线销售工作并提供可能的最佳服务，以使业务和运营恢复正常。展望2020年，我们有信心将生产出中国最具竞争力的电动SUV，包括ES6，全新ES8和EC6，以及更全面的电池和电源解决方案。我们很高兴看到不断增长的用户社区成为我们品牌和业务增长的重要组成部分。我们在中国的59个城市拥有22个NIO house和62个NIO space，这有效地支持了我们的品牌推广和销售工作。我们已做好充分准备，可以逆风前进，并在2020年变得更加强大。”李斌说。蔚来汽车首席财务官魏锋补充说：“我们对2019年第四季度的财务表现感到满意，收入比上一季度增长了55.1％。我们为优化组织结构和提高运营效率付出了巨大的努力，这导致第四季度出现了一笔一次性支出。但是，我们相信，这些努力将大大减少我们的运营费用，并改善2020年及以后的现金流量。我们将继续提高所有业务领域的运营效率，以在未来为我们的利润率带来积极变化。““此外，我们在2020年2月和2020年3月进行了几次私募可转换票据，本金总额为4.35亿美元，这为我们的日常运营和业务发展提供了支持。 2020年2月25日，我们与安徽省合肥市政府签订了合作框架协议。安徽省合肥市政府希望为NIO提供资源和资金支持，以在我们的长期发展中在合肥建立NIO中国总部。双方正在研究将要签署的具有法律约束力的最终文件。”CFO补充道。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}