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Lancerrr
01-26
讲真，美国这一**作效果堪称奇迹。加息如此激进还取得了这样的经济数据，只能说好厉害！
美国GDP超预期，意味着软着陆？未必，还有个大隐患
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19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国GDP超预期，意味着软着陆？未必，还有个大隐患","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2406752471","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国四季度1美元的GDP增长，是用1.55美元赤字、超2.50美元债务换来的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美国四季度1美元的GDP增长，是用1.55美元赤字、超2.50美元债务换来的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>高利率下美国GDP大超预期，是用赤字和债务堆出来的高速增长。</p><p>隔夜，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，远超出市场预期的2%，美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，相比之下2022年为1.9%。</p><p>具体来看，美国第四季度GDP增加了3290亿美元至27.939万亿美元，有分析指出，增长的主要因素是库存去化不足，尽管美元飙升但出口激增，以及医疗支出和房车购买支出激增。</p><p>对于这一增速，美国总统在X发文称：</p><blockquote><p>去年经济增长了3.1%，同时又增加了270万个就业岗位，核心通胀回落至疫情前水平，这意味着现在的工资、财富和就业率都高于疫情前。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161a3b69b4d1fcc70cb3c2e73cb54af1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"/></p></blockquote><p>美国经济背后的增长动力是什么？或者说实现拜登口中通胀回落，经济保持增长付出了什么？</p><p>下图显示了以名义美元计算的第四季度GDP的变化，以及相应的美国预算赤字增长和债务的增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6c624b91db5b285b12f464abb0d2b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"578\"/></p><p>可以看出，在同一时期，美国预算赤字增加了50%以上，达到5100亿美元。在同一时期，美国公共债务增加了8340 亿美元，较GDP增幅高出了154%。</p><p><strong>这意味着，需要1.55美元的预算赤字、超过2.50美元的债务才能换来1美元的经济增长。</strong></p><p>分析指出，去年美国债务增长了2.581万亿美元，这意味着GDP每增长1美元就会新增1.69美元的债务，也意味着每新增一个工作岗位，就会使未来几代美国人损失957100.48美元。</p><p>此前文章指出，分析预测如果按照目前的速度发展下去，2024年的赤字将高于2万亿美元。FRED数据显示，联邦利息支出总额正呈指数级增长，有史以来首次超过1万亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40b2e3b0b97364fb783ebb932b75df22\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"526\"/></p><p>债务方面，美国财政部本月初发布的报告显示，美国联邦债务首次达到34万亿美元。规模庞大的债务引发担忧，美国财长耶伦表示：</p><blockquote><p>34万亿美元的债务是一个“可怕的数字”，但美国同时也拥有庞大的经济。实际偿债成本仍然“相当可控”，我们必须采取措施确保赤字可控。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国GDP超预期，意味着软着陆？未必，还有个大隐患\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-26 19:10 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707284><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国四季度1美元的GDP增长，是用1.55美元赤字、超2.50美元债务换来的。高利率下美国GDP大超预期，是用赤字和债务堆出来的高速增长。隔夜，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，远超出市场预期的2%，美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，相比之下2022年为1.9%。具体来看，美国第四季度GDP增加了3290亿美元至27.939万亿美元，有分析指出，增长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707284\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3018013d3bf52fd8a6ece6aac1593aec","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707284","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2406752471","content_text":"美国四季度1美元的GDP增长，是用1.55美元赤字、超2.50美元债务换来的。高利率下美国GDP大超预期，是用赤字和债务堆出来的高速增长。隔夜，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，远超出市场预期的2%，美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，相比之下2022年为1.9%。具体来看，美国第四季度GDP增加了3290亿美元至27.939万亿美元，有分析指出，增长的主要因素是库存去化不足，尽管美元飙升但出口激增，以及医疗支出和房车购买支出激增。对于这一增速，美国总统在X发文称：去年经济增长了3.1%，同时又增加了270万个就业岗位，核心通胀回落至疫情前水平，这意味着现在的工资、财富和就业率都高于疫情前。美国经济背后的增长动力是什么？或者说实现拜登口中通胀回落，经济保持增长付出了什么？下图显示了以名义美元计算的第四季度GDP的变化，以及相应的美国预算赤字增长和债务的增加。可以看出，在同一时期，美国预算赤字增加了50%以上，达到5100亿美元。在同一时期，美国公共债务增加了8340 亿美元，较GDP增幅高出了154%。这意味着，需要1.55美元的预算赤字、超过2.50美元的债务才能换来1美元的经济增长。分析指出，去年美国债务增长了2.581万亿美元，这意味着GDP每增长1美元就会新增1.69美元的债务，也意味着每新增一个工作岗位，就会使未来几代美国人损失957100.48美元。此前文章指出，分析预测如果按照目前的速度发展下去，2024年的赤字将高于2万亿美元。FRED数据显示，联邦利息支出总额正呈指数级增长，有史以来首次超过1万亿美元。债务方面，美国财政部本月初发布的报告显示，美国联邦债务首次达到34万亿美元。规模庞大的债务引发担忧，美国财长耶伦表示：34万亿美元的债务是一个“可怕的数字”，但美国同时也拥有庞大的经济。实际偿债成本仍然“相当可控”，我们必须采取措施确保赤字可控。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505987662210980","authorId":"3505987662210980","name":"Lancerrr","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505987662210980","authorIdStr":"3505987662210980"},"content":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？","text":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？","html":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":267249171906824,"gmtCreate":1706270849809,"gmtModify":1706276285078,"author":{"id":"3505987662210980","authorId":"3505987662210980","name":"Lancerrr","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505987662210980","authorIdStr":"3505987662210980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"讲真，美国这一**作效果堪称奇迹。加息如此激进还取得了这样的经济数据，只能说好厉害！","listText":"讲真，美国这一**作效果堪称奇迹。加息如此激进还取得了这样的经济数据，只能说好厉害！","text":"讲真，美国这一**作效果堪称奇迹。加息如此激进还取得了这样的经济数据，只能说好厉害！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267249171906824","repostId":"2406752471","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505987662210980","authorId":"3505987662210980","name":"Lancerrr","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505987662210980","authorIdStr":"3505987662210980"},"content":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？","text":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？","html":"这一@轮@操@作效果，这tm都能敏感词？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
