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hala
2022-09-27
让暴风雨来得更猛烈点
11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚
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2022-09-23
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>预计，美联储将在11月的会议上连续第四次加息75个基点，随后在12月加息50个基点。到今年年底，联邦基金利率的目标区间将达到4.25%-4.5%。</p><p>然而，到2023年2月的FOMC会议结束时，<b>瑞银认为政策累积调整的效果将更加明显，届时FOMC将暂停加息并评估已实施的紧缩政策。</b></p><p>随着对加息幅度的上调，FOMC对联邦基金利率峰值的预测上调至4.6%。瑞银认为，<b>该利率此后保持在这一限制性区间，将足以使通胀回到2.0%的目标。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a128429c9b0601505c7b562fe2bdce4\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>瑞银“大幅加息”的预测与鲍威尔收紧政策的强烈意愿一致：他希望设定的利率能够使整个曲线的实际利率都为正，并有更多的证据表明通货胀正在放缓，劳动力市场正在放缓。如市场预期的那样，鲍威尔和FOMC其他成员基本维持了杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号。</p><p>SEP对经济增长的预期大幅下调，失业率预计将在2023年和2024年达到4.4%的峰值，然后在2025年下降到4.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9068e45d0fe7208cdbfb59da32ef98\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但瑞银认为，劳动力市场并不一定会有较大程度的放缓。鉴于劳动力市场缓慢的波动趋势，推动失业率上升并不容易，很可能需要完全减少一定数量工作岗位，才能达到美联储所假设的失业率中值水平。</b></p><p>瑞银表示，进一步收紧政策和硬着陆的一个重要风险是，鲍威尔继续将“职位空缺”作为衡量劳动力市场实力的指标。在金融危机之前，由于劳动力市场即将收缩并步入衰退区间，职位空缺率保持在周期峰值附近或达到周期峰值。<b>作为一个后顾性指标（backward looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。</b></p><p>野村的押注“加码”了</p><p>上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。</p><p>而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的<b>预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6e85b0eba1ccea0ed81c1576fdc5b9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：<b>1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：</b></p><blockquote><b>因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。</b></blockquote><p>较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，<b>2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d66dffa7ffb5fe3cd97210d2bac273\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。</p><p>野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:08 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1919503fa977869f2aed6254242da69d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270299946","content_text":"加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场紧随其后，继续上调了对联邦基金利率峰值的预测，现在认为利率峰值将在明年4月升至4.80%左右的水平。华尔街的预测更为“大胆”。在准确预测（与联储官员一致）利率峰值将在明年达到4.6%的水平后，野村甚至继续加码，押注该利率水平将在明年3月升至5.25%-5.50%。“让子弹再飞一会儿”瑞银预计，美联储将在11月的会议上连续第四次加息75个基点，随后在12月加息50个基点。到今年年底，联邦基金利率的目标区间将达到4.25%-4.5%。然而，到2023年2月的FOMC会议结束时，瑞银认为政策累积调整的效果将更加明显，届时FOMC将暂停加息并评估已实施的紧缩政策。随着对加息幅度的上调，FOMC对联邦基金利率峰值的预测上调至4.6%。瑞银认为，该利率此后保持在这一限制性区间，将足以使通胀回到2.0%的目标。瑞银“大幅加息”的预测与鲍威尔收紧政策的强烈意愿一致：他希望设定的利率能够使整个曲线的实际利率都为正，并有更多的证据表明通货胀正在放缓，劳动力市场正在放缓。如市场预期的那样，鲍威尔和FOMC其他成员基本维持了杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号。SEP对经济增长的预期大幅下调，失业率预计将在2023年和2024年达到4.4%的峰值，然后在2025年下降到4.3%。但瑞银认为，劳动力市场并不一定会有较大程度的放缓。鉴于劳动力市场缓慢的波动趋势，推动失业率上升并不容易，很可能需要完全减少一定数量工作岗位，才能达到美联储所假设的失业率中值水平。瑞银表示，进一步收紧政策和硬着陆的一个重要风险是，鲍威尔继续将“职位空缺”作为衡量劳动力市场实力的指标。在金融危机之前，由于劳动力市场即将收缩并步入衰退区间，职位空缺率保持在周期峰值附近或达到周期峰值。作为一个后顾性指标（backward looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。野村的押注“加码”了上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和美元指数都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661237102,"gmtCreate":1663933150707,"gmtModify":1663933407556,"author":{"id":"3502622007622815","authorId":"3502622007622815","name":"hala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b20edecc87853068e15b8689ea153b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502622007622815","authorIdStr":"3502622007622815"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美元指数新高","listText":"美元指数新高","text":"美元指数新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661237102","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":661727864,"gmtCreate":1664262760258,"gmtModify":1664262810338,"author":{"id":"3502622007622815","authorId":"3502622007622815","name":"hala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b20edecc87853068e15b8689ea153b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502622007622815","authorIdStr":"3502622007622815"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","listText":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","text":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661727864","repostId":"2270299946","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661237102,"gmtCreate":1663933150707,"gmtModify":1663933407556,"author":{"id":"3502622007622815","authorId":"3502622007622815","name":"hala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b20edecc87853068e15b8689ea153b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502622007622815","authorIdStr":"3502622007622815"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美元指数新高","listText":"美元指数新高","text":"美元指数新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661237102","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123410633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663932651,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123410633?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-23 19:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 发生了什么？股市、原油、黄金加速下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123410633","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%</b></a><b></b></p><p>美东时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。</p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、AMD跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>均跌超1%；</p><p>美股邮轮股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>跌超3%；</p><p>美股石油股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">卡隆石油</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">阿帕契</a>跌超3%；</p><p>美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">哈莫尼黄金</a>跌近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">金田</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">科尔黛伦矿业</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">巴里克黄金</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">皇家黄金</a>跌超2%；</p><p>美股区块链概念股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>跌超4%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>盘前跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">好市多</a>盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 发生了什么？股市、原油、黄金加速下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 发生了什么？股市、原油、黄金加速下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-23 19:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%</b></a><b></b></p><p>美东时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。</p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、AMD跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>均跌超1%；</p><p>美股邮轮股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>跌超3%；</p><p>美股石油股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">卡隆石油</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">阿帕契</a>跌超3%；</p><p>美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">哈莫尼黄金</a>跌近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">金田</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">科尔黛伦矿业</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">巴里克黄金</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">皇家黄金</a>跌超2%；</p><p>美股区块链概念股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>跌超4%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>盘前跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">好市多</a>盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123410633","content_text":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周四，高盛将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。盘前行情美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，特斯拉、奈飞、英伟达、AMD跌超2%，苹果、亚马逊、谷歌A、微软均跌超1%；美股邮轮股盘前走低，嘉年华邮轮跌超5%，挪威邮轮跌超4%，皇家加勒比邮轮跌超3%；美股石油股盘前普跌，英国石油跌超5%，卡隆石油跌超4%，西方石油、阿帕契跌超3%；美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近8%，金田、科尔黛伦矿业跌超5%，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，纽曼矿业、巴里克黄金、皇家黄金跌超2%；美股区块链概念股普跌，Riot Blockchain跌超7%，Coinbase、Marathon Digital、MicroStrategy跌超4%；瑞士信贷盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%，瑞银此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；Cano Health盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；好市多盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，英国富时100跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。原油原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。黄金黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
