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小辑轻舟

小辑轻舟

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2019-06-19

会被特朗普弄死

@妈妈的又在山顶了:$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$能不能加息让我们看一次七个点的

2019-06-19

应该不会带硬的，应该会先介绍最近经济数据，然后说我们会在不断的收集数据，观察市场，维持通胀，确保就业，差不多这样

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-06-17

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 这样的鬼行情

2019-06-17

$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 这个行情，服了，震荡行情

2019-06-14

$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 我早上的股指空头呀，拉爆仓了[喷血][喷血][喷血][喷血][喷血]

2019-06-07

$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 这没有人坐庄我都不信了拉爆

2019-06-05

$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 黄金狂飙，盘前股指期货上涨，都在等晚上就业数据

2019-06-03

$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 亏大发了这一波下来，六十点没有了

2019-05-23

$雅芳(AVP)$来，有本事3.5,我马上再入，先去吃夜宵回来好好盯盘

2019-05-23

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 坐等

2019-05-22

$卫讯公司(VSAT)$交易量这么少会不会出事

2019-05-16

$Wix.Com Ltd(WIX)$ 115

2019-05-09

$Roku Inc(ROKU卖早了

2019-05-08

$Spectrum Brands Holdings(SPB)$ 卧槽厉害，今天才看到这样的股票900多跌到60多，厉害

2019-05-07

$LGI Homes Inc(LGIH)$ 流动性$Fabrinet(FN)$

2019-05-07

$杜科蒙(DCO)$流动性风险

2019-04-23

坐看云起云落

社交悬崖上的京东

2019-04-17

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$诶被这个奈飞坑了两次，算了，以后把他剔除自选，管它洪水滔天，不管了

2019-04-17

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$感觉这次还是会死，真会玩，拉一下跌一下，事不过三以后再也不赌这些知名企业的财报了，跟耍猴一样，超预期的大跌，不符合预期的涨了，要么就是涨跌很小，买点期权多空坑杀💊

2019-03-08

$美国技术数据公司(TECD)$真的是，大跌百分之七，最低到快十，居然看跌期权是跌的，无语了

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黄金狂飙，盘前股指期货上涨，都在等晚上就业数据","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/902508647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3496010628563245","authorId":"3496010628563245","name":"丛林之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeebf58c1f272c4aefcadd256cae4556","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3496010628563245","authorIdStr":"3496010628563245"},"content":"请问美国这些数据在哪里看？","text":"请问美国这些数据在哪里看？","html":"请问美国这些数据在哪里看？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":902803945,"gmtCreate":1559569882187,"gmtModify":1704698501328,"author":{"id":"3502239436377447","authorId":"3502239436377447","name":"小辑轻舟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409543610b179716eef6ae8f1b862f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502239436377447","authorIdStr":"3502239436377447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$FUT:NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 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卧槽厉害，今天才看到这样的股票900多跌到60多，厉害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/901003579","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":903460001,"gmtCreate":1557237406803,"gmtModify":1704802087038,"author":{"id":"3502239436377447","authorId":"3502239436377447","name":"小辑轻舟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409543610b179716eef6ae8f1b862f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502239436377447","authorIdStr":"3502239436377447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$LGI Homes Inc(LGIH)$ 流动性$Fabrinet(FN)$","listText":"$LGI Homes Inc(LGIH)$ 流动性$Fabrinet(FN)$","text":"$LGI Homes Inc(LGIH)$ 流动性$Fabrinet(FN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/903460001","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":903487257,"gmtCreate":1557237364079,"gmtModify":1704802086345,"author":{"id":"3502239436377447","authorId":"3502239436377447","name":"小辑轻舟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409543610b179716eef6ae8f1b862f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502239436377447","authorIdStr":"3502239436377447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$杜科蒙(DCO)$流动性风险","listText":"$杜科蒙(DCO)$流动性风险","text":"$杜科蒙(DCO)$流动性风险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/903487257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":900787458,"gmtCreate":1555951615974,"gmtModify":1704799657471,"author":{"id":"3502239436377447","authorId":"3502239436377447","name":"小辑轻舟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409543610b179716eef6ae8f1b862f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502239436377447","authorIdStr":"3502239436377447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坐看云起云落","listText":"坐看云起云落","text":"坐看云起云落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/900787458","repostId":"1145298166","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298166","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注TMT趋势，追踪资本动态","home_visible":1,"media_name":"略大参考","id":"1025091182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de07e0f22147b0ad351b86fff86dd4"},"pubTimestamp":1555927675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145298166?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2019-04-22 18:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"社交悬崖上的京东","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298166","media":"略大参考","summary":"在未完结的明尼苏达案之外，京东业务站在另一个悬崖边上——京东能否继续获得腾讯的支持。","content":"<p>在未完结的明尼苏达案之外，京东业务站在另一个悬崖边上——京东能否继续获得腾讯的支持。</p>\n<p>京东和微信为期五年的合作即将到期，即微信上京东的一级入口有可能关闭，二者未来关系如何，不仅仅影响京东原有业务发展，更影响到京东能否获得下沉市场发展机会——京东希望追赶拼多多，而从目前策略上来看，京东都押宝在微信和手Q等腾讯社交工具上。</p>\n<p><b><span>作者：Oak</span></b></p>\n<p>1</p>\n<p><b>不可靠的腾讯，风雨飘摇的京东</b></p>\n<p>腾讯和京东的关系，要追溯回五年前。</p>\n<p>2014年3月，腾讯以2.14亿美元加上QQ网购、C2C拍拍网以及少量易迅股权(据估算约10%)获得了京东IPO前的15%股份，同时京东首次公开招股时，腾讯以招股价再认购京东额外5%股份，京东有权利收购易迅剩余股份，2014年5月显示，腾讯持有京东17.6%股权，到了2016年8月，这个比例升至21.25%。</p>\n<p>根据当时的协议，2014年起未来5年内，京东成为腾讯的首选实体电商合作伙伴，排名需高于其他电商公司。同时，协议也约定，京东获得微信排他性的一级电商入口，并获得手机QQ的入口。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbda11cf9f341638d0e9058a99fb616\"></p>\n<p><b>这是腾讯和京东的蜜月期。</b></p>\n<p>李志刚所著的《创京东》中把高瓴资本张磊描述为腾讯和京东交易的撮合者。在2013年前后，投资人每次在京东的董事会上都质问刘强东：移动互联网怎么办？刘强东每次都跟董事们说，技术跟不上，流量跟不上。张磊当时很高兴，刘强东已经有意识了，和腾讯合作的事就有谱了。</p>\n<p>刘强东在2018年4月接受吴晓波采访时透露，在双方达成合作之前，京东跟腾讯秘密谈判了两年，但腾讯一直犹豫不决。后来，他去美国待了八个月，这段时间腾讯倾尽所有的资源，使劲打价格战，拼命投物流，结果在他回国之后，腾讯跟京东的差距不仅没有缩小，反而更大了，“<b>所以马化腾和刘炽平说，这仗没法打了，我一回国，他们就把电商拍板给我了</b>”，他在采访中描述。</p>\n<p>双方合作的基础就存在认知的误差，也存在不平等之处。刘强东在京东占据绝对的话语权——到2017年，腾讯在京东的股权被稀释到18.1%，虽然还是第一大股东，但表决权只有4.2%的投票权，与此同时，持股约16%的刘强东拥有80.9%的投票权，也就是刘强东有一票否决权和决定权。</p>\n<p><b>2017年是京东和刘强东关系的鼎盛时期</b>，许多人都会记得当年年底，刘强东去浙江乌镇参加第四届世界互联网大会，金句频出，俨然成为互联网中重要的一极。</p>\n<p><b>腾讯并没有遵守自己的诺言</b>——让京东成为首选“实体电商合作伙伴”，它扶持了拼多多。</p>\n<p>早在拼多多2016年7月公布的B轮融资中，腾讯就是投资方之一；到了2018年4月前后拼多多再次融资时，腾讯成为了领投方——当时香港经济日报报道，“拼多多”最新一轮融资约30亿美元，估值达150亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7bfd2fb22a0767c8a58785cc1d0aea\"></p>\n<p>资金并不珍贵，珍贵的是流量，拼多多的模式是让用户发起拼单，在微信、QQ等社交渠道呼朋唤友来购买，重度依赖熟人社交关系链。虽然拼多多创始人黄峥在《财经》杂志采访中否认腾讯对他们的扶持，但一个明显的事实是，微信几乎封杀一切诱导性的分享，却任由拼多多在自己体系内迅猛成长。<b>现在，在二级入口中，拼多多和京东都是有同样的地位。</b></p>\n<p>不仅仅是传统电商，在新零售这件事情上，京东和腾讯也显示出分歧。</p>\n<p>2017年年底，京东入股永辉超市，外界都视此次操作为京东向线下生鲜进军的信号，但董事长张轩松对外表示，京东只是财务投资者，这就显示二者在业务层面的合作并没有谈拢。随后，腾讯两倍于京东的价格入股永辉超市。与此同时，阿里的盒马鲜生正如火如荼的发展，不难看出，腾讯要亲自上场。</p>\n<p><b>从2018年开始，京东开始渡劫</b>，最糟糕的时候就是刘强东身涉强奸案，到了2019年，京东和腾讯之间的紧密合作的“婚姻”关系已经到期。</p>\n<p>根据协议规定，双方正式合作期限是京东正式在微信一级入口上线为止5年。</p>\n<p>京东获得微信的一级入口是2014年的5月27日，也就是说，到期时间是2019年5月27日。</p>\n<p>在最近提交的sec文件中，京东称：“我们正在与腾讯讨论续签战略合作协议。我们希望继续利用与腾讯的战略合作伙伴关系，提升我们增加互联网和移动用户流量的能力，加强我们在互联网和移动设备上的直接销售和市场业务。我们相信，与腾讯的持续合作将提升并保持我们在中国快速增长的大型移动互联网用户中的形象，因为很多用户经常在日常生活中使用微信和移动QQ。”</p>\n<p>根据京东最新文件披露，腾讯持有京东17.8%的股份，是第一大机构股东。不过，刘强东依然拥有有京东的79%投票权，腾讯仅拥有4.5%的投票权。但无法回避的是，腾讯和京东的关系已经变得错综复杂，腾讯有了新的电商代理人，但京东仍然需要腾讯。</p>\n<p>2</p>\n<p><b>重度依赖</b></p>\n<p><b>京东仍然对腾讯是有依赖的。</b></p>\n<p>根据微信公号“开柒”报道，在今年2月底，京东CFO曾披露，微信仍然是京东非常重要的客户获取渠道，总的来说，超过四分之一的新用户来自微信。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7364c975dee992ff432f5f5e9f5f0f1c\"></p>\n<p><span>图：微信搜一搜商品直达</span></p>\n<p>另外，京东最新文件也披露了腾讯和京东的关联交易数字。2018年，京东与腾讯广告业务合作共产生佣金服务收入3.45亿元人民币，而在2016年这个数字为1.84亿元人民币，2017年为2.60亿元人民币，从这一收入来看，京东对腾讯的依赖程度是越来越高。</p>\n<p>“因向腾讯提供服务而获得收入”这一项，2018年全年为2.76亿元人民币，而2017年、2016年这一数字分别为0.31亿元，和52万元，这一收入板块也是逐年上升。</p>\n<p><b>更重要的是在下沉市场的新玩法上，腾讯的社交流量对于京东仍然重要。</b></p>\n<p>下沉市场这个词是拼多多带给这个市场的，拼多多依赖下沉市场用户对于廉价商品以及价格的敏感度，找到了一种病毒式的增长方式——在微信社交平台上做拼团，即一个人向他的好友发起拼团，发起者能够获得价格优惠，但能够给拼多多带来新用户，这种模式在增长模型中叫“裂变”，一个用户裂变出多个用户。</p>\n<p><b>京东逐渐感受到了拼多多的压力</b>，也瞄准了这一市场和相同的增长方式，从2018年4月，京东开始推出拼购业务。</p>\n<p>在2018年的年报会上，刘强东指出了2019年京东重点关注的三个方向，拓展三、四线市场是其中一个重要方向，即拼购，但不难看出，京东全盘设计都是重度依赖腾讯。</p>\n<p>早在2018年12月的架构调整中，京东把拼购事业部从三大事业群中独立出来，表示要探索社交电商的创新模式，并任命侯艳为负责人，直接向京东商城CEO徐雷汇报，而侯艳以前是京东微信手Q业务部总经理。</p>\n<p>在2018年的财报发布会后的高管电话会中，CEO徐雷表示，拼购业务为京东带来的大量的下沉市场新用户，且与京东的微信入口做了很好的对接，他还提到，“除了继续保持对拼购和微信市场关注和投入外，未来京东会重点打造更适合拼购和微信市场的供应链能力。”</p>\n<p>在徐雷阐述的拼购场景中，也不难看出对于腾讯社交平台的依赖。</p>\n<p>徐雷说，拼购业务不再依赖京东的中心化平台流量，除了京东APP，还有京东微信购物、京东手Q购物、拼购小程序、M站、PC端等六大场景，也就是说，一半的使用场景都依赖于腾讯。</p>\n<p>不过目前看起来京东对于这一业务发展还并未下定决心。</p>\n<p>根据全天候科技的报道，为了扶持拼购业务，此前京东提升了“拼购”的搜索权重，但是相比自营产品，拼购商品的排名依然靠后，“基本在十几页之后，不靠刷量根本搜不到”。</p>\n<p>目前京东的拼购入口仍然隐藏较深，除了小程序和微信九宫格的入口，在京东APP里，用户需要点击“京东APP-品质时尚栏目-京东拼购”才能进入。“从去年就说要大力气推广，但一直没见到实际行动，高层始终在犹豫”，京东拼购内部人员说。</p>\n<p><b>从商家的反馈来看也是如此，京东拼购目前的竞争力依然不强。</b>“一件40元上下的女装，在拼多多上一周内能卖出300多件，而同期在京东拼购卖出去不到20件“，一位经营服饰的商家说。</p>\n<p>目前来看，京东能否取得腾讯支持，比如给予京东像拼多多同样丰富的权限，允许用户在微信和QQ中转发拼购链接，可能是京东拼购业务能否获得发展的一个爆发点。</p>\n<p>实际上2018年京东是经历过一系列众叛亲离的，2018年年中时最高点时有581家机构持有京东股票，而到了第三季度末，这个数字变成了155家，持股总数从6.177亿股减至4081.563万股，促成京东和腾讯交易的高瓴资本减持了6亿美元股票，转而9亿美元买入阿里。</p>\n<p>在合作到期之后，腾讯的态度如何将至关重要。</p>\n<p>此次和腾讯谈判结果如何，不仅影响京东自营业务，更重要是腾讯是否给机会让他们去追赶拼多多。</p>\n<p>3</p>\n<p><b>变数拼多多</b></p>\n<p>情况复杂之处在于，腾讯和京东的关系之中还有拼多多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bbcee43290dc5c2617ca2e5fd87ff59\"></p>\n<p>“开柒”说，在协议到期之后，京东将失去在微信和QQ中的一级入口，有猜测称，拼多多将取代京东获得一级入口，也有猜测称，这一入口将出现多家公司，或者京东将付费获得入口。</p>\n<p><b>如果拼多多获得一级入口，那么京东将面临更大的增长压力。</b></p>\n<p>截至2018年12月31日，京东平台的年度活跃用户数为3.053亿，同比增长20%，环比基本持平。相比之下，阿里和拼多多同期的活跃用户数增速都在30%以上。</p>\n<p>全天候科技报道指，京东过去几个月的GMV增速已经同比跌到了20%。2018年Q4，京东GMV为5144亿元，同比增长27.5%，如今这一数字进一步下滑。而在2019年3月，拼多多2018年第四季度的财报中，拼多多的GMV(总成交额)也大幅提升，同比增长234%达到4716亿元。</p>\n<p>不难想象，即便京东能够保留一级入口，只要是拼多多也获得一级入口，京东都会面临巨大的追赶压力。而如果京东失去一级入口，拼多多取代京东获得一级入口，京东的新增用户增速要在现有基础上减去20%，几乎是难以想象的影响。</p>\n<p>拼多多获得一级入口可能性并不小，根据今年2月拼多多披露的信息，腾讯在拼多多的持股比例为17.1%，投票权为3.4%。</p>\n<p><b>而如果需要京东付费保留一级入口，京东的成本压力想必进一步增大。</b></p>\n<p>2018年，京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净亏损为25亿元人民币；2017年，京东全年的净利润为1.168亿元人民币。非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，2018年京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净利润为35亿元人民币，2017年则为50亿元人民币。<b>两项数据均出现不同程度的下滑。</b></p>\n<p><b>京东实际上已经处于一个脆弱的时期了。</b></p>\n<p>2018年一整年都是持续的动荡，1月29日，京东股价达到历史最高峰50.68美元，市值高达735亿美元，到第四季度时，一度跌到20美元以下，一只黑天鹅就是刘强东性丑闻。</p>\n<p>北京时间2018年12月22日凌晨，性丑闻发生地北明尼阿波利斯市亨内平县检察官办公室公布刘强东事件的调查结果，因证据不足，决定不予起诉。</p>\n<p>刘强东大约在2019年回归京东管理层，一系列大刀阔斧的改革，推行996、开除高管、去掉快递员底薪，重要的是，明尼苏达事件并未完结，原告女生不牺暴露自己真实身份以索偿5万美元发起了民事诉讼。</p>\n<p>此时，京东和腾讯的关系，至关重要。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>社交悬崖上的京东</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n社交悬崖上的京东\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1025091182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/09de07e0f22147b0ad351b86fff86dd4);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">略大参考 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2019-04-22 18:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>在未完结的明尼苏达案之外，京东业务站在另一个悬崖边上——京东能否继续获得腾讯的支持。</p>\n<p>京东和微信为期五年的合作即将到期，即微信上京东的一级入口有可能关闭，二者未来关系如何，不仅仅影响京东原有业务发展，更影响到京东能否获得下沉市场发展机会——京东希望追赶拼多多，而从目前策略上来看，京东都押宝在微信和手Q等腾讯社交工具上。</p>\n<p><b><span>作者：Oak</span></b></p>\n<p>1</p>\n<p><b>不可靠的腾讯，风雨飘摇的京东</b></p>\n<p>腾讯和京东的关系，要追溯回五年前。</p>\n<p>2014年3月，腾讯以2.14亿美元加上QQ网购、C2C拍拍网以及少量易迅股权(据估算约10%)获得了京东IPO前的15%股份，同时京东首次公开招股时，腾讯以招股价再认购京东额外5%股份，京东有权利收购易迅剩余股份，2014年5月显示，腾讯持有京东17.6%股权，到了2016年8月，这个比例升至21.25%。</p>\n<p>根据当时的协议，2014年起未来5年内，京东成为腾讯的首选实体电商合作伙伴，排名需高于其他电商公司。同时，协议也约定，京东获得微信排他性的一级电商入口，并获得手机QQ的入口。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbda11cf9f341638d0e9058a99fb616\"></p>\n<p><b>这是腾讯和京东的蜜月期。</b></p>\n<p>李志刚所著的《创京东》中把高瓴资本张磊描述为腾讯和京东交易的撮合者。在2013年前后，投资人每次在京东的董事会上都质问刘强东：移动互联网怎么办？刘强东每次都跟董事们说，技术跟不上，流量跟不上。张磊当时很高兴，刘强东已经有意识了，和腾讯合作的事就有谱了。</p>\n<p>刘强东在2018年4月接受吴晓波采访时透露，在双方达成合作之前，京东跟腾讯秘密谈判了两年，但腾讯一直犹豫不决。后来，他去美国待了八个月，这段时间腾讯倾尽所有的资源，使劲打价格战，拼命投物流，结果在他回国之后，腾讯跟京东的差距不仅没有缩小，反而更大了，“<b>所以马化腾和刘炽平说，这仗没法打了，我一回国，他们就把电商拍板给我了</b>”，他在采访中描述。</p>\n<p>双方合作的基础就存在认知的误差，也存在不平等之处。刘强东在京东占据绝对的话语权——到2017年，腾讯在京东的股权被稀释到18.1%，虽然还是第一大股东，但表决权只有4.2%的投票权，与此同时，持股约16%的刘强东拥有80.9%的投票权，也就是刘强东有一票否决权和决定权。</p>\n<p><b>2017年是京东和刘强东关系的鼎盛时期</b>，许多人都会记得当年年底，刘强东去浙江乌镇参加第四届世界互联网大会，金句频出，俨然成为互联网中重要的一极。</p>\n<p><b>腾讯并没有遵守自己的诺言</b>——让京东成为首选“实体电商合作伙伴”，它扶持了拼多多。</p>\n<p>早在拼多多2016年7月公布的B轮融资中，腾讯就是投资方之一；到了2018年4月前后拼多多再次融资时，腾讯成为了领投方——当时香港经济日报报道，“拼多多”最新一轮融资约30亿美元，估值达150亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7bfd2fb22a0767c8a58785cc1d0aea\"></p>\n<p>资金并不珍贵，珍贵的是流量，拼多多的模式是让用户发起拼单，在微信、QQ等社交渠道呼朋唤友来购买，重度依赖熟人社交关系链。虽然拼多多创始人黄峥在《财经》杂志采访中否认腾讯对他们的扶持，但一个明显的事实是，微信几乎封杀一切诱导性的分享，却任由拼多多在自己体系内迅猛成长。<b>现在，在二级入口中，拼多多和京东都是有同样的地位。</b></p>\n<p>不仅仅是传统电商，在新零售这件事情上，京东和腾讯也显示出分歧。</p>\n<p>2017年年底，京东入股永辉超市，外界都视此次操作为京东向线下生鲜进军的信号，但董事长张轩松对外表示，京东只是财务投资者，这就显示二者在业务层面的合作并没有谈拢。随后，腾讯两倍于京东的价格入股永辉超市。与此同时，阿里的盒马鲜生正如火如荼的发展，不难看出，腾讯要亲自上场。</p>\n<p><b>从2018年开始，京东开始渡劫</b>，最糟糕的时候就是刘强东身涉强奸案，到了2019年，京东和腾讯之间的紧密合作的“婚姻”关系已经到期。</p>\n<p>根据协议规定，双方正式合作期限是京东正式在微信一级入口上线为止5年。</p>\n<p>京东获得微信的一级入口是2014年的5月27日，也就是说，到期时间是2019年5月27日。</p>\n<p>在最近提交的sec文件中，京东称：“我们正在与腾讯讨论续签战略合作协议。我们希望继续利用与腾讯的战略合作伙伴关系，提升我们增加互联网和移动用户流量的能力，加强我们在互联网和移动设备上的直接销售和市场业务。我们相信，与腾讯的持续合作将提升并保持我们在中国快速增长的大型移动互联网用户中的形象，因为很多用户经常在日常生活中使用微信和移动QQ。”</p>\n<p>根据京东最新文件披露，腾讯持有京东17.8%的股份，是第一大机构股东。不过，刘强东依然拥有有京东的79%投票权，腾讯仅拥有4.5%的投票权。但无法回避的是，腾讯和京东的关系已经变得错综复杂，腾讯有了新的电商代理人，但京东仍然需要腾讯。</p>\n<p>2</p>\n<p><b>重度依赖</b></p>\n<p><b>京东仍然对腾讯是有依赖的。</b></p>\n<p>根据微信公号“开柒”报道，在今年2月底，京东CFO曾披露，微信仍然是京东非常重要的客户获取渠道，总的来说，超过四分之一的新用户来自微信。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7364c975dee992ff432f5f5e9f5f0f1c\"></p>\n<p><span>图：微信搜一搜商品直达</span></p>\n<p>另外，京东最新文件也披露了腾讯和京东的关联交易数字。2018年，京东与腾讯广告业务合作共产生佣金服务收入3.45亿元人民币，而在2016年这个数字为1.84亿元人民币，2017年为2.60亿元人民币，从这一收入来看，京东对腾讯的依赖程度是越来越高。</p>\n<p>“因向腾讯提供服务而获得收入”这一项，2018年全年为2.76亿元人民币，而2017年、2016年这一数字分别为0.31亿元，和52万元，这一收入板块也是逐年上升。</p>\n<p><b>更重要的是在下沉市场的新玩法上，腾讯的社交流量对于京东仍然重要。</b></p>\n<p>下沉市场这个词是拼多多带给这个市场的，拼多多依赖下沉市场用户对于廉价商品以及价格的敏感度，找到了一种病毒式的增长方式——在微信社交平台上做拼团，即一个人向他的好友发起拼团，发起者能够获得价格优惠，但能够给拼多多带来新用户，这种模式在增长模型中叫“裂变”，一个用户裂变出多个用户。</p>\n<p><b>京东逐渐感受到了拼多多的压力</b>，也瞄准了这一市场和相同的增长方式，从2018年4月，京东开始推出拼购业务。</p>\n<p>在2018年的年报会上，刘强东指出了2019年京东重点关注的三个方向，拓展三、四线市场是其中一个重要方向，即拼购，但不难看出，京东全盘设计都是重度依赖腾讯。</p>\n<p>早在2018年12月的架构调整中，京东把拼购事业部从三大事业群中独立出来，表示要探索社交电商的创新模式，并任命侯艳为负责人，直接向京东商城CEO徐雷汇报，而侯艳以前是京东微信手Q业务部总经理。</p>\n<p>在2018年的财报发布会后的高管电话会中，CEO徐雷表示，拼购业务为京东带来的大量的下沉市场新用户，且与京东的微信入口做了很好的对接，他还提到，“除了继续保持对拼购和微信市场关注和投入外，未来京东会重点打造更适合拼购和微信市场的供应链能力。”</p>\n<p>在徐雷阐述的拼购场景中，也不难看出对于腾讯社交平台的依赖。</p>\n<p>徐雷说，拼购业务不再依赖京东的中心化平台流量，除了京东APP，还有京东微信购物、京东手Q购物、拼购小程序、M站、PC端等六大场景，也就是说，一半的使用场景都依赖于腾讯。</p>\n<p>不过目前看起来京东对于这一业务发展还并未下定决心。</p>\n<p>根据全天候科技的报道，为了扶持拼购业务，此前京东提升了“拼购”的搜索权重，但是相比自营产品，拼购商品的排名依然靠后，“基本在十几页之后，不靠刷量根本搜不到”。</p>\n<p>目前京东的拼购入口仍然隐藏较深，除了小程序和微信九宫格的入口，在京东APP里，用户需要点击“京东APP-品质时尚栏目-京东拼购”才能进入。“从去年就说要大力气推广，但一直没见到实际行动，高层始终在犹豫”，京东拼购内部人员说。</p>\n<p><b>从商家的反馈来看也是如此，京东拼购目前的竞争力依然不强。</b>“一件40元上下的女装，在拼多多上一周内能卖出300多件，而同期在京东拼购卖出去不到20件“，一位经营服饰的商家说。</p>\n<p>目前来看，京东能否取得腾讯支持，比如给予京东像拼多多同样丰富的权限，允许用户在微信和QQ中转发拼购链接，可能是京东拼购业务能否获得发展的一个爆发点。</p>\n<p>实际上2018年京东是经历过一系列众叛亲离的，2018年年中时最高点时有581家机构持有京东股票，而到了第三季度末，这个数字变成了155家，持股总数从6.177亿股减至4081.563万股，促成京东和腾讯交易的高瓴资本减持了6亿美元股票，转而9亿美元买入阿里。</p>\n<p>在合作到期之后，腾讯的态度如何将至关重要。</p>\n<p>此次和腾讯谈判结果如何，不仅影响京东自营业务，更重要是腾讯是否给机会让他们去追赶拼多多。</p>\n<p>3</p>\n<p><b>变数拼多多</b></p>\n<p>情况复杂之处在于，腾讯和京东的关系之中还有拼多多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bbcee43290dc5c2617ca2e5fd87ff59\"></p>\n<p>“开柒”说，在协议到期之后，京东将失去在微信和QQ中的一级入口，有猜测称，拼多多将取代京东获得一级入口，也有猜测称，这一入口将出现多家公司，或者京东将付费获得入口。</p>\n<p><b>如果拼多多获得一级入口，那么京东将面临更大的增长压力。</b></p>\n<p>截至2018年12月31日，京东平台的年度活跃用户数为3.053亿，同比增长20%，环比基本持平。相比之下，阿里和拼多多同期的活跃用户数增速都在30%以上。</p>\n<p>全天候科技报道指，京东过去几个月的GMV增速已经同比跌到了20%。2018年Q4，京东GMV为5144亿元，同比增长27.5%，如今这一数字进一步下滑。而在2019年3月，拼多多2018年第四季度的财报中，拼多多的GMV(总成交额)也大幅提升，同比增长234%达到4716亿元。</p>\n<p>不难想象，即便京东能够保留一级入口，只要是拼多多也获得一级入口，京东都会面临巨大的追赶压力。而如果京东失去一级入口，拼多多取代京东获得一级入口，京东的新增用户增速要在现有基础上减去20%，几乎是难以想象的影响。</p>\n<p>拼多多获得一级入口可能性并不小，根据今年2月拼多多披露的信息，腾讯在拼多多的持股比例为17.1%，投票权为3.4%。</p>\n<p><b>而如果需要京东付费保留一级入口，京东的成本压力想必进一步增大。</b></p>\n<p>2018年，京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净亏损为25亿元人民币；2017年，京东全年的净利润为1.168亿元人民币。非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，2018年京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净利润为35亿元人民币，2017年则为50亿元人民币。<b>两项数据均出现不同程度的下滑。</b></p>\n<p><b>京东实际上已经处于一个脆弱的时期了。</b></p>\n<p>2018年一整年都是持续的动荡，1月29日，京东股价达到历史最高峰50.68美元，市值高达735亿美元，到第四季度时，一度跌到20美元以下，一只黑天鹅就是刘强东性丑闻。</p>\n<p>北京时间2018年12月22日凌晨，性丑闻发生地北明尼阿波利斯市亨内平县检察官办公室公布刘强东事件的调查结果，因证据不足，决定不予起诉。</p>\n<p>刘强东大约在2019年回归京东管理层，一系列大刀阔斧的改革，推行996、开除高管、去掉快递员底薪，重要的是，明尼苏达事件并未完结，原告女生不牺暴露自己真实身份以索偿5万美元发起了民事诉讼。</p>\n<p>此时，京东和腾讯的关系，至关重要。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbda11cf9f341638d0e9058a99fb616","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298166","content_text":"在未完结的明尼苏达案之外，京东业务站在另一个悬崖边上——京东能否继续获得腾讯的支持。\n京东和微信为期五年的合作即将到期，即微信上京东的一级入口有可能关闭，二者未来关系如何，不仅仅影响京东原有业务发展，更影响到京东能否获得下沉市场发展机会——京东希望追赶拼多多，而从目前策略上来看，京东都押宝在微信和手Q等腾讯社交工具上。\n作者：Oak\n1\n不可靠的腾讯，风雨飘摇的京东\n腾讯和京东的关系，要追溯回五年前。\n2014年3月，腾讯以2.14亿美元加上QQ网购、C2C拍拍网以及少量易迅股权(据估算约10%)获得了京东IPO前的15%股份，同时京东首次公开招股时，腾讯以招股价再认购京东额外5%股份，京东有权利收购易迅剩余股份，2014年5月显示，腾讯持有京东17.6%股权，到了2016年8月，这个比例升至21.25%。\n根据当时的协议，2014年起未来5年内，京东成为腾讯的首选实体电商合作伙伴，排名需高于其他电商公司。同时，协议也约定，京东获得微信排他性的一级电商入口，并获得手机QQ的入口。\n\n这是腾讯和京东的蜜月期。\n李志刚所著的《创京东》中把高瓴资本张磊描述为腾讯和京东交易的撮合者。在2013年前后，投资人每次在京东的董事会上都质问刘强东：移动互联网怎么办？刘强东每次都跟董事们说，技术跟不上，流量跟不上。张磊当时很高兴，刘强东已经有意识了，和腾讯合作的事就有谱了。\n刘强东在2018年4月接受吴晓波采访时透露，在双方达成合作之前，京东跟腾讯秘密谈判了两年，但腾讯一直犹豫不决。后来，他去美国待了八个月，这段时间腾讯倾尽所有的资源，使劲打价格战，拼命投物流，结果在他回国之后，腾讯跟京东的差距不仅没有缩小，反而更大了，“所以马化腾和刘炽平说，这仗没法打了，我一回国，他们就把电商拍板给我了”，他在采访中描述。\n双方合作的基础就存在认知的误差，也存在不平等之处。刘强东在京东占据绝对的话语权——到2017年，腾讯在京东的股权被稀释到18.1%，虽然还是第一大股东，但表决权只有4.2%的投票权，与此同时，持股约16%的刘强东拥有80.9%的投票权，也就是刘强东有一票否决权和决定权。\n2017年是京东和刘强东关系的鼎盛时期，许多人都会记得当年年底，刘强东去浙江乌镇参加第四届世界互联网大会，金句频出，俨然成为互联网中重要的一极。\n腾讯并没有遵守自己的诺言——让京东成为首选“实体电商合作伙伴”，它扶持了拼多多。\n早在拼多多2016年7月公布的B轮融资中，腾讯就是投资方之一；到了2018年4月前后拼多多再次融资时，腾讯成为了领投方——当时香港经济日报报道，“拼多多”最新一轮融资约30亿美元，估值达150亿美元。\n\n资金并不珍贵，珍贵的是流量，拼多多的模式是让用户发起拼单，在微信、QQ等社交渠道呼朋唤友来购买，重度依赖熟人社交关系链。虽然拼多多创始人黄峥在《财经》杂志采访中否认腾讯对他们的扶持，但一个明显的事实是，微信几乎封杀一切诱导性的分享，却任由拼多多在自己体系内迅猛成长。现在，在二级入口中，拼多多和京东都是有同样的地位。\n不仅仅是传统电商，在新零售这件事情上，京东和腾讯也显示出分歧。\n2017年年底，京东入股永辉超市，外界都视此次操作为京东向线下生鲜进军的信号，但董事长张轩松对外表示，京东只是财务投资者，这就显示二者在业务层面的合作并没有谈拢。随后，腾讯两倍于京东的价格入股永辉超市。与此同时，阿里的盒马鲜生正如火如荼的发展，不难看出，腾讯要亲自上场。\n从2018年开始，京东开始渡劫，最糟糕的时候就是刘强东身涉强奸案，到了2019年，京东和腾讯之间的紧密合作的“婚姻”关系已经到期。\n根据协议规定，双方正式合作期限是京东正式在微信一级入口上线为止5年。\n京东获得微信的一级入口是2014年的5月27日，也就是说，到期时间是2019年5月27日。\n在最近提交的sec文件中，京东称：“我们正在与腾讯讨论续签战略合作协议。我们希望继续利用与腾讯的战略合作伙伴关系，提升我们增加互联网和移动用户流量的能力，加强我们在互联网和移动设备上的直接销售和市场业务。我们相信，与腾讯的持续合作将提升并保持我们在中国快速增长的大型移动互联网用户中的形象，因为很多用户经常在日常生活中使用微信和移动QQ。”\n根据京东最新文件披露，腾讯持有京东17.8%的股份，是第一大机构股东。不过，刘强东依然拥有有京东的79%投票权，腾讯仅拥有4.5%的投票权。但无法回避的是，腾讯和京东的关系已经变得错综复杂，腾讯有了新的电商代理人，但京东仍然需要腾讯。\n2\n重度依赖\n京东仍然对腾讯是有依赖的。\n根据微信公号“开柒”报道，在今年2月底，京东CFO曾披露，微信仍然是京东非常重要的客户获取渠道，总的来说，超过四分之一的新用户来自微信。\n\n图：微信搜一搜商品直达\n另外，京东最新文件也披露了腾讯和京东的关联交易数字。2018年，京东与腾讯广告业务合作共产生佣金服务收入3.45亿元人民币，而在2016年这个数字为1.84亿元人民币，2017年为2.60亿元人民币，从这一收入来看，京东对腾讯的依赖程度是越来越高。\n“因向腾讯提供服务而获得收入”这一项，2018年全年为2.76亿元人民币，而2017年、2016年这一数字分别为0.31亿元，和52万元，这一收入板块也是逐年上升。\n更重要的是在下沉市场的新玩法上，腾讯的社交流量对于京东仍然重要。\n下沉市场这个词是拼多多带给这个市场的，拼多多依赖下沉市场用户对于廉价商品以及价格的敏感度，找到了一种病毒式的增长方式——在微信社交平台上做拼团，即一个人向他的好友发起拼团，发起者能够获得价格优惠，但能够给拼多多带来新用户，这种模式在增长模型中叫“裂变”，一个用户裂变出多个用户。\n京东逐渐感受到了拼多多的压力，也瞄准了这一市场和相同的增长方式，从2018年4月，京东开始推出拼购业务。\n在2018年的年报会上，刘强东指出了2019年京东重点关注的三个方向，拓展三、四线市场是其中一个重要方向，即拼购，但不难看出，京东全盘设计都是重度依赖腾讯。\n早在2018年12月的架构调整中，京东把拼购事业部从三大事业群中独立出来，表示要探索社交电商的创新模式，并任命侯艳为负责人，直接向京东商城CEO徐雷汇报，而侯艳以前是京东微信手Q业务部总经理。\n在2018年的财报发布会后的高管电话会中，CEO徐雷表示，拼购业务为京东带来的大量的下沉市场新用户，且与京东的微信入口做了很好的对接，他还提到，“除了继续保持对拼购和微信市场关注和投入外，未来京东会重点打造更适合拼购和微信市场的供应链能力。”\n在徐雷阐述的拼购场景中，也不难看出对于腾讯社交平台的依赖。\n徐雷说，拼购业务不再依赖京东的中心化平台流量，除了京东APP，还有京东微信购物、京东手Q购物、拼购小程序、M站、PC端等六大场景，也就是说，一半的使用场景都依赖于腾讯。\n不过目前看起来京东对于这一业务发展还并未下定决心。\n根据全天候科技的报道，为了扶持拼购业务，此前京东提升了“拼购”的搜索权重，但是相比自营产品，拼购商品的排名依然靠后，“基本在十几页之后，不靠刷量根本搜不到”。\n目前京东的拼购入口仍然隐藏较深，除了小程序和微信九宫格的入口，在京东APP里，用户需要点击“京东APP-品质时尚栏目-京东拼购”才能进入。“从去年就说要大力气推广，但一直没见到实际行动，高层始终在犹豫”，京东拼购内部人员说。\n从商家的反馈来看也是如此，京东拼购目前的竞争力依然不强。“一件40元上下的女装，在拼多多上一周内能卖出300多件，而同期在京东拼购卖出去不到20件“，一位经营服饰的商家说。\n目前来看，京东能否取得腾讯支持，比如给予京东像拼多多同样丰富的权限，允许用户在微信和QQ中转发拼购链接，可能是京东拼购业务能否获得发展的一个爆发点。\n实际上2018年京东是经历过一系列众叛亲离的，2018年年中时最高点时有581家机构持有京东股票，而到了第三季度末，这个数字变成了155家，持股总数从6.177亿股减至4081.563万股，促成京东和腾讯交易的高瓴资本减持了6亿美元股票，转而9亿美元买入阿里。\n在合作到期之后，腾讯的态度如何将至关重要。\n此次和腾讯谈判结果如何，不仅影响京东自营业务，更重要是腾讯是否给机会让他们去追赶拼多多。\n3\n变数拼多多\n情况复杂之处在于，腾讯和京东的关系之中还有拼多多。\n\n“开柒”说，在协议到期之后，京东将失去在微信和QQ中的一级入口，有猜测称，拼多多将取代京东获得一级入口，也有猜测称，这一入口将出现多家公司，或者京东将付费获得入口。\n如果拼多多获得一级入口，那么京东将面临更大的增长压力。\n截至2018年12月31日，京东平台的年度活跃用户数为3.053亿，同比增长20%，环比基本持平。相比之下，阿里和拼多多同期的活跃用户数增速都在30%以上。\n全天候科技报道指，京东过去几个月的GMV增速已经同比跌到了20%。2018年Q4，京东GMV为5144亿元，同比增长27.5%，如今这一数字进一步下滑。而在2019年3月，拼多多2018年第四季度的财报中，拼多多的GMV(总成交额)也大幅提升，同比增长234%达到4716亿元。\n不难想象，即便京东能够保留一级入口，只要是拼多多也获得一级入口，京东都会面临巨大的追赶压力。而如果京东失去一级入口，拼多多取代京东获得一级入口，京东的新增用户增速要在现有基础上减去20%，几乎是难以想象的影响。\n拼多多获得一级入口可能性并不小，根据今年2月拼多多披露的信息，腾讯在拼多多的持股比例为17.1%，投票权为3.4%。\n而如果需要京东付费保留一级入口，京东的成本压力想必进一步增大。\n2018年，京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净亏损为25亿元人民币；2017年，京东全年的净利润为1.168亿元人民币。非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，2018年京东归属于普通股股东的持续经营业务净利润为35亿元人民币，2017年则为50亿元人民币。两项数据均出现不同程度的下滑。\n京东实际上已经处于一个脆弱的时期了。\n2018年一整年都是持续的动荡，1月29日，京东股价达到历史最高峰50.68美元，市值高达735亿美元，到第四季度时，一度跌到20美元以下，一只黑天鹅就是刘强东性丑闻。\n北京时间2018年12月22日凌晨，性丑闻发生地北明尼阿波利斯市亨内平县检察官办公室公布刘强东事件的调查结果，因证据不足，决定不予起诉。\n刘强东大约在2019年回归京东管理层，一系列大刀阔斧的改革，推行996、开除高管、去掉快递员底薪，重要的是，明尼苏达事件并未完结，原告女生不牺暴露自己真实身份以索偿5万美元发起了民事诉讼。\n此时，京东和腾讯的关系，至关重要。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":900165242,"gmtCreate":1555507621586,"gmtModify":1704798901030,"author":{"id":"3502239436377447","authorId":"3502239436377447","name":"小辑轻舟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409543610b179716eef6ae8f1b862f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502239436377447","authorIdStr":"3502239436377447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Netflix, 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