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炒股萌新…希望找个师傅
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Jiey
2020-07-07
巴菲特追高[开心]
抱歉,原内容已删除
Jiey
2020-07-03
$拼多多(PDD)$
机构猎杀者怎么不说话了?50元开始叫人空的
Jiey
2020-05-22
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
总感觉今晚要大跌
Jiey
2020-01-02
$苹果(AAPL)$
巴菲特赚了一倍了吧,股神就是股神
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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此外如果您想创作优质文章,这里有一份老虎社区创作指引给到您,希望能对您有帮助!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949929024,"gmtCreate":1594130431368,"gmtModify":1704204052350,"author":{"id":"3498193933165552","authorId":"3498193933165552","name":"Jiey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06246553b3dc9c0e2b6a3d7948787723","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498193933165552","idStr":"3498193933165552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巴菲特追高[开心] ","listText":"巴菲特追高[开心] ","text":"巴菲特追高[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949929024","repostId":"1157704176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157704176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1594127710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157704176?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-07 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“股神”巴菲特再出手,抄底美股的时机成熟了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157704176","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。\n\n\n在沉寂了许久之后","content":"<blockquote>\n <i><span>这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。</span></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d73340bdec79b712f937cd0fa15bf89\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\"></p>\n<p>在沉寂了许久之后,“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)终于动手了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦斥资40亿美元,收购了道明尼能源(Dominion Energy)旗下的天然气网络资产,交易的总规模达到97亿美元。那么,巴菲特终于结束了近四年按兵不动的状态,做出了2016年以来最大规模的交易,是否意味着他认为抄底美股的时机已经成熟呢?</p>\n<p><span>在许多观察家看来,这笔交易本身都是可圈可点,比如CFRA Research分析师赛弗特(Cathy Seifert)评价说,这次收购是“审慎之举,其正当性和合理性很容易证明,收购目标完全契合他们的既有商业模型”。彭博的分析师们也在研究报告当中指出,对于伯克希尔哈撒韦能源而言,交易“进一步巩固了他们在天然气行业的地位,考虑到能源价格今年的走势,以及一些行业玩家急切想要转向清洁能源的意愿,交易的时机可谓恰到好处”。</span></p>\n<p><span>问题在于,如果有人认为这笔交易标志着巴菲特的立场发生了改变,转向了牛派,那他们可就要大失所望了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22e0196c0722c2139bb6adbba95c2931\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p><span>现在,美股已经重新涨回了接近历史最高点的水位,如果这时能够得到巴菲特认定股价依然被低估的加持,那美好的景象简直让人难以想象。事实上,最近一段时间,相信美股依然低估的人,在华尔街还真不是少数。他们的最重要根据之一就是,还有大量的现金在作壁上观——不必说,其中就包括伯克希尔的超过1370亿美元现金。</span></p>\n<p><span>诚然,美股近期的戏剧性上涨确实让越来越多人沉不住气,生怕错过进一步的涨势,在诱惑之中投身进来,而他们的资金入场,反过来又推动了股价的进一步上涨,由此形成了一个自我验证、自我完成的循环……短期内,估值的不断膨胀看似确实已经不可遏制了,但是,经历了几十年风雨的巴菲特,又怎么可能轻易被这种欣快症所蛊惑?</span></p>\n<p><span>第二季度盈利季节的大幕很快就要开启了,许多企业现在都干脆以变数为理由取消了今年的财测,而众所周知,要判断估值是否合理,最重要的参照就是营收、盈利等的实际表现和预期。这也就难怪,近期财经媒体在谈论投资者的行为时,广泛使用了“盲飞”这样的说法。没有任何实质性线索,全凭感觉行事,巴菲特显然不会这么做。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0f872fa14943d608332b96d5b17a5d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"368\"></p>\n<p><span>更加不必说,在众多估值评判指标当中,巴菲特最为看重的单一指标就是国内生产总值对股市总市值的比率,后者甚至被许多观察家称为“巴菲特指标”。如上图所示,虽然经历了3月以来的暴跌,但是整体来看,这一指标并没有发生什么根本性的变化,更谈不上发出股市已经低估的信号。相反,这一指标依然居于历史性的高水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>同样需要指出的是,伯克希尔近几年来一直没有什么大动作是不假,但是说巴菲特没有做过任何尝试,或者面对过任何机会,就未免有失妥当了。</span></p>\n<p><span>比如,早在3月崩盘前几个月,去年年底时,巴菲特就曾经试图收购软件和硬件分销商Tech Data,但是私募股权公司Apollo Global Management斜刺里杀了出来,巴菲特因为不愿意参与竞价大战而放弃了这次尝试。今年早些时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">蒂芙尼</a>在最终接受路威酩轩的收购报价前,也曾经联络过伯克希尔,想要看看后者是否能够给出更高的价格,但是遭到了巴菲特的拒绝。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d40bcbef935c892a7cfbab11a6e863a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p><span>还有,在非收购交易方面,伯克希尔其实一直相当活跃。比如,去年他们注资100亿美元,支持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>收购阿纳达科,获得了极为优厚的条件,气坏了西方石油的大股东伊坎(Carl Icahn),公开在媒体上炮轰巴菲特。</span></p>\n<p><span>总而言之,从这些记录不难看出,虽然表现略显沉寂,但巴菲特其实一直在按照自己的节奏和自己的标准行事,因此,对于这个最新的动作,也大可不必予以过分解读。当然,如果说伯克希尔进行了四年来首次大动作,什么都不说明,那也未免太过武断了。</span></p>\n<p><span>众所周知,过去几年以来,伯克希尔和巴菲特一直在持续囤积现金,使得后者的规模达到了1370亿美元,相当于伯克希尔4340亿美元总市值的31%。当一家企业30%的价值都配置在现金部位当中,其表现不及标普500指数,自然也就非常容易理解了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efdf598befb1e1da6092bbe885f43b4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\"></p>\n<p><span>哪怕伯克希尔收购道明尼天然气资产的交易是完全用现金完成,他们的军火库在这笔交易当中也不过只能消耗掉7%而已。更不必说,事实上,伯克希尔是承担了收购对象57亿美元的债务,自己直接出资只有40亿美元,这还不到伯克希尔现金储备的3%。</span></p>\n<p><span>换言之,这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。</span></p>\n<p><span>不容争议的事实就是,3月大跌后,美股整体估值更低的那段日子里,巴菲特都没有做出任何像样的动作。如果非要说当前这笔规模有限的交易说明了什么,那恐怕只能是巴菲特依然在担心美股发生又一次大规模抛售的风险,不然他早就该火力全开了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a20f1bfcb00ffa74bf72c80dd759c3f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\"></p>\n<p><span>当然,巴菲特坚持持有大量现金的做法,近年来已经受到了众多批评家,乃至自己长期股东的指责,说他已经老了,落后于时代了,失去魔力了。可是,不要忘记,当初在全球金融危机爆发前,以及互联网泡沫破灭前,巴菲特也都曾经面对过这样的批评。</span></p>\n<p><span>众所周知,那两次笑到最后的都是巴菲特,而非他的批评者们。</span></p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“股神”巴菲特再出手,抄底美股的时机成熟了?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“股神”巴菲特再出手,抄底美股的时机成熟了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-07 21:15 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L6bjGLMGEM1TkchGSBb0zg><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。\n\n\n在沉寂了许久之后,“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)终于动手了。伯克希尔哈撒韦斥资40亿美元,收购了道明尼能源(Dominion Energy)旗下的天然气网络资产,交易的总规模达到97亿美元。那么,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L6bjGLMGEM1TkchGSBb0zg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L6bjGLMGEM1TkchGSBb0zg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157704176","content_text":"这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。\n\n\n在沉寂了许久之后,“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)终于动手了。伯克希尔哈撒韦斥资40亿美元,收购了道明尼能源(Dominion Energy)旗下的天然气网络资产,交易的总规模达到97亿美元。那么,巴菲特终于结束了近四年按兵不动的状态,做出了2016年以来最大规模的交易,是否意味着他认为抄底美股的时机已经成熟呢?\n在许多观察家看来,这笔交易本身都是可圈可点,比如CFRA Research分析师赛弗特(Cathy Seifert)评价说,这次收购是“审慎之举,其正当性和合理性很容易证明,收购目标完全契合他们的既有商业模型”。彭博的分析师们也在研究报告当中指出,对于伯克希尔哈撒韦能源而言,交易“进一步巩固了他们在天然气行业的地位,考虑到能源价格今年的走势,以及一些行业玩家急切想要转向清洁能源的意愿,交易的时机可谓恰到好处”。\n问题在于,如果有人认为这笔交易标志着巴菲特的立场发生了改变,转向了牛派,那他们可就要大失所望了。\n\n现在,美股已经重新涨回了接近历史最高点的水位,如果这时能够得到巴菲特认定股价依然被低估的加持,那美好的景象简直让人难以想象。事实上,最近一段时间,相信美股依然低估的人,在华尔街还真不是少数。他们的最重要根据之一就是,还有大量的现金在作壁上观——不必说,其中就包括伯克希尔的超过1370亿美元现金。\n诚然,美股近期的戏剧性上涨确实让越来越多人沉不住气,生怕错过进一步的涨势,在诱惑之中投身进来,而他们的资金入场,反过来又推动了股价的进一步上涨,由此形成了一个自我验证、自我完成的循环……短期内,估值的不断膨胀看似确实已经不可遏制了,但是,经历了几十年风雨的巴菲特,又怎么可能轻易被这种欣快症所蛊惑?\n第二季度盈利季节的大幕很快就要开启了,许多企业现在都干脆以变数为理由取消了今年的财测,而众所周知,要判断估值是否合理,最重要的参照就是营收、盈利等的实际表现和预期。这也就难怪,近期财经媒体在谈论投资者的行为时,广泛使用了“盲飞”这样的说法。没有任何实质性线索,全凭感觉行事,巴菲特显然不会这么做。\n\n更加不必说,在众多估值评判指标当中,巴菲特最为看重的单一指标就是国内生产总值对股市总市值的比率,后者甚至被许多观察家称为“巴菲特指标”。如上图所示,虽然经历了3月以来的暴跌,但是整体来看,这一指标并没有发生什么根本性的变化,更谈不上发出股市已经低估的信号。相反,这一指标依然居于历史性的高水平。\n同样需要指出的是,伯克希尔近几年来一直没有什么大动作是不假,但是说巴菲特没有做过任何尝试,或者面对过任何机会,就未免有失妥当了。\n比如,早在3月崩盘前几个月,去年年底时,巴菲特就曾经试图收购软件和硬件分销商Tech Data,但是私募股权公司Apollo Global Management斜刺里杀了出来,巴菲特因为不愿意参与竞价大战而放弃了这次尝试。今年早些时候,蒂芙尼在最终接受路威酩轩的收购报价前,也曾经联络过伯克希尔,想要看看后者是否能够给出更高的价格,但是遭到了巴菲特的拒绝。\n\n还有,在非收购交易方面,伯克希尔其实一直相当活跃。比如,去年他们注资100亿美元,支持西方石油收购阿纳达科,获得了极为优厚的条件,气坏了西方石油的大股东伊坎(Carl Icahn),公开在媒体上炮轰巴菲特。\n总而言之,从这些记录不难看出,虽然表现略显沉寂,但巴菲特其实一直在按照自己的节奏和自己的标准行事,因此,对于这个最新的动作,也大可不必予以过分解读。当然,如果说伯克希尔进行了四年来首次大动作,什么都不说明,那也未免太过武断了。\n众所周知,过去几年以来,伯克希尔和巴菲特一直在持续囤积现金,使得后者的规模达到了1370亿美元,相当于伯克希尔4340亿美元总市值的31%。当一家企业30%的价值都配置在现金部位当中,其表现不及标普500指数,自然也就非常容易理解了。\n\n哪怕伯克希尔收购道明尼天然气资产的交易是完全用现金完成,他们的军火库在这笔交易当中也不过只能消耗掉7%而已。更不必说,事实上,伯克希尔是承担了收购对象57亿美元的债务,自己直接出资只有40亿美元,这还不到伯克希尔现金储备的3%。\n换言之,这笔所谓大型交易,其实也没有多“大”,更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反,这只是一笔就事论事的交易,一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。\n不容争议的事实就是,3月大跌后,美股整体估值更低的那段日子里,巴菲特都没有做出任何像样的动作。如果非要说当前这笔规模有限的交易说明了什么,那恐怕只能是巴菲特依然在担心美股发生又一次大规模抛售的风险,不然他早就该火力全开了。\n\n当然,巴菲特坚持持有大量现金的做法,近年来已经受到了众多批评家,乃至自己长期股东的指责,说他已经老了,落后于时代了,失去魔力了。可是,不要忘记,当初在全球金融危机爆发前,以及互联网泡沫破灭前,巴菲特也都曾经面对过这样的批评。\n众所周知,那两次笑到最后的都是巴菲特,而非他的批评者们。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}