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2023-07-27

人民币涨了7%？高盛脑子进水还是眼睛花？

高盛：做多中国的时间窗口开启

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：做多中国的时间窗口开启\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-27 18:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694215><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>政治局会议释放信号，美联储加息渐近尾声，中国资产反弹……有外资大行高呼：做多中国的时间到了！7月26日，高盛分析师Kinger Lau、Timothy Moe等人在报告中指出，随着本周政治局会议确定下半年经济政策基调，中国市场的“政策底”已经形成，中国股市的短期反弹窗口现已打开。本周沪深300指数上涨了2%，恒生科技指数上涨超过5%，恒生指数已连涨三周，离岸人民币和在岸人民币都上涨了约7%，今年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694215\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694215","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127156081","content_text":"政治局会议释放信号，美联储加息渐近尾声，中国资产反弹……有外资大行高呼：做多中国的时间到了！7月26日，高盛分析师Kinger Lau、Timothy Moe等人在报告中指出，随着本周政治局会议确定下半年经济政策基调，中国市场的“政策底”已经形成，中国股市的短期反弹窗口现已打开。本周沪深300指数上涨了2%，恒生科技指数上涨超过5%，恒生指数已连涨三周，离岸人民币和在岸人民币都上涨了约7%，今年发达市场和中国以外的新兴市场股票回报率分别为17%和14%。高盛认为，从经验证据来看，目前迹象表明中国股票在接下来的几个月内有望表现更好。分析师指出，随着投资者情绪在6月之后逐渐温和，本周偏向宽松的政策可以为市场视为一种“惊喜”：投资者对于强有力政策的期望在6月初时可能相当高，在最近几周，这种乐观情绪逐渐变得温和，因此相对于市场的预期，偏向宽松的政策可以为市场视为一种“上行惊喜”。高盛最新数据显示，其对冲基金客户周二净买入中国股票，创9个月以来最快速度。高盛跟踪的11个行业里，对冲基金净买入其中9个，对非必需消费品股，必需消费品股，金融股，材料股和工业股的买入最为显著。看好TMT高盛指出，会议声明中还明确提到了“支持平台企业”，这对于中国的TMT股票是一个积极信号。政策扶持加上估值处于多年低位，中国TMT股票的潜在上行选项在当前的股票估值中似乎格外吸引人。这其中包括积极运营杠杆、通过企业行动改善股东回报、进一步发展数字经济和长期的人工智能相关的企业所蕴含的机会。总体而言，推动增长的政策方向是高盛对中国股市持积极观点的关键证据之一，此外还包括在下半年由库存周期和政策刺激带来的改善的环比增长势头、成本相对较低的估值等。分析师也指出，目前海外投资者仓位较轻，未来仍有更多上涨空间：截至2023年6月，全球主动管理型基金在中国资产配置上相对基准权重滞后了390个基点；对冲基金投资者在中国股票上的净敞口（相对于其全球股票持仓）仍比今年1月份低了460个基点；而大陆中国的股票基金在资产配置中仍持有较高的现金余额，尽管在会议声明公布之前，南向投资者在周一净购入了12亿美元的港股。所有这些迹象表明，投资者并没有做好充分准备和仓位调整，目前的仓位风险似乎更偏向上行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":202449837162680,"gmtCreate":1690454036808,"gmtModify":1690454741032,"author":{"id":"3496265634836957","authorId":"3496265634836957","name":"袁叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db888e31e5aba3d76b850651d2a242a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人民币涨了7%？高盛脑子进水还是眼睛花？","listText":"人民币涨了7%？高盛脑子进水还是眼睛花？","text":"人民币涨了7%？高盛脑子进水还是眼睛花？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202449837162680","repostId":"1127156081","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}