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碧绿小韭菜
2022-06-15
很明显是第三种可能性最大
盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？
碧绿小韭菜
2021-01-07
加油，2021必中！
碧绿小韭菜
2018-12-04
#2018年度大放送# 我发财了吗？
碧绿小韭菜
2018-09-25
$云米科技(VIOT)$ 看来上不去啊，拿着两袋泡面钱，走人了
碧绿小韭菜
2018-09-14
$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 这款名叫看谁跑的快的游戏好玩吗？
碧绿小韭菜
2018-08-08
$中国铁塔(00788)$ 这毛衣真暖和
碧绿小韭菜
2018-08-02
$小米集团-W(01810)$ 下午上演绝地反击
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considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察 | 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-14 20:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>>>></b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1185238788\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力</b></a><b></b></p><p>就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。</p><p>市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。</p><p><b>1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。</b>目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。</p><p><b>2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。</b>鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179371572","content_text":">>>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336967809,"gmtCreate":1610012651701,"gmtModify":1703742024216,"author":{"id":"3494290132341454","authorId":"3494290132341454","name":"碧绿小韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c234b2f9593ad75421fa31fd7f3106f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油，2021必中！","listText":"加油，2021必中！","text":"加油，2021必中！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eab7d49f72c2f1f89f839dd7d476bad","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336967809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346317,"gmtCreate":1543930110117,"gmtModify":1704782783020,"author":{"id":"3494290132341454","authorId":"3494290132341454","name":"碧绿小韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c234b2f9593ad75421fa31fd7f3106f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#2018年度大放送# 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