七页禾的个人主页 - 老虎社区

七页禾

何以解忧唯有暴富

IP属地：云南

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0勋章

2020-06-02

$SPY 20200603 305.0 PUT(SPY)$ 疯狂的美股做多总能赚钱做空就。。

2020-06-02

$SPY 20200603 302.0 PUT(SPY)$ 我也是自不量力居然想做空标普[喷血]

2020-06-01

$SPY 20200603 302.0 PUT(SPY)$ 这是涨什么啊？？

2020-05-30

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 今晚川普不出来推特了？

2020-05-29

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 真是乘坐火箭了剧本从来都只有一个 [看涨]

2020-05-29

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 就一直涨？

2020-05-20

$SPY 20200520 295.0 PUT(SPY)$ 这回设了止损单也没成交尾盘醒不过来啊今晚估计又废了吧

2020-05-14

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 今晚还会V吗

2020-05-13

$SPY 20200513 295.0 CALL(SPY)$ 今天能涨吗五分钱的就行

2020-04-29

唱衰是一回事今晚跌不跌又是一回事

今晚美国GDP数据公布华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点

2020-04-28

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 还没完没了了[思考]

2020-04-14

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 想多了可能股市与疫情无关

2020-04-07

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 还能起死回生吗

2020-04-06

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 怎么还在涨

2020-04-03

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 为什么涨

2020-04-01

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 这货还能爬上来？

2020-03-20

$AAPL 20200320 260.0 CALL(AAPL)$ 这一天天的怎么了盘前大涨盘中熔断盘后又大涨

2020-03-18

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 这是奔着二级熔断去的吧一级熔断大家已经习惯了

2020-03-09

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 我也有今天[喷血] 熔断后期权刚好到期是不是也废了

2019-09-10

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 刚刚发生了什么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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今晚川普不出来推特了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951658211","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951122018,"gmtCreate":1590684683934,"gmtModify":1704193437537,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;真是乘坐火箭了 剧本从来都只有一个&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;真是乘坐火箭了 剧本从来都只有一个&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 真是乘坐火箭了 剧本从来都只有一个 [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951122018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951128049,"gmtCreate":1590683921481,"gmtModify":1704193435135,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;就一直涨？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;就一直涨？","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 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今晚估计又废了吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81beffdfcb34146e13f8643eeaffe505","width":"1080","height":"1371"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959521326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950231771,"gmtCreate":1589386915293,"gmtModify":1704189770534,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;今晚还会V吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;今晚还会V吗","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 今晚还会V吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950231771","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3495602582320123","authorId":"3495602582320123","name":"期货股票预测员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e623df5dc148cab3142598d9696755","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"买多就行了别操心了还有不是崩盘","text":"买多就行了别操心了还有不是崩盘","html":"买多就行了别操心了还有不是崩盘"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950621827,"gmtCreate":1589378035569,"gmtModify":1704189691637,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPY 20200513 295.0 CALL(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;今天能涨吗 五分钱的就行","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPY 20200513 295.0 CALL(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;今天能涨吗 五分钱的就行","text":"$SPY 20200513 295.0 CALL(SPY)$ 今天能涨吗 五分钱的就行","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9f44768ec6c6daa5cc81e26430de1b","width":"1080","height":"1371"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950621827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3447216351101792","authorId":"3447216351101792","name":"梦之旅a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"如果看涨，285，286都是可以的","text":"如果看涨，285，286都是可以的","html":"如果看涨，285，286都是可以的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925731805,"gmtCreate":1588140069007,"gmtModify":1704366539146,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"唱衰是一回事 今晚跌不跌又是一回事","listText":"唱衰是一回事 今晚跌不跌又是一回事","text":"唱衰是一回事 今晚跌不跌又是一回事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925731805","repostId":"2031044618","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2031044618","pubTimestamp":1588138200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2031044618?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-29 13:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"今晚美国GDP数据公布 华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2031044618","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"原标题：今晚美国GDP数据公布，史上最强经济扩张周期要终结？华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点 来源：每日经济新闻\n　　据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学28日发布的新冠疫情最新统计数据显示，美国累计新冠","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　<span>原标题：今晚美国GDP数据公布，史上最强经济扩张周期要终结？华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点 来源：每日经济新闻</span></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学28日发布的新冠疫情最新统计数据显示，美国累计新冠确诊病例超过100万例，死亡57533例，确诊和死亡病例数全球最多。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　本周三，美国公布一季度经济数据。受新冠肺炎疫情冲击，外媒对即将发布的数据颇为悲观。据环球时报报道，美国《商业内幕》网站27日报道称，美国总统特朗普的高级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特周一表示，对一季度GDP的初步预期为负数。他警告称，由于新冠病毒危机，美国经济今年可能会出现大萧条以来最严重的收缩，“二季度GDP萎缩程度可能达到20%到30%”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　美媒27日报道称，接受该报调查的经济学家预计，经季节调整后的一季度美国经济总量将缩减3.5%，这将是美国经济6年来首次出现季度缩减，同时也是2009年初以来的最大跌幅。此外，由于疫情是在3月中旬才真正对美国经济造成重大影响，而一季度大多数时间里美国经济基本保持平稳运行，因此可以预见美国经济最糟糕的局面尚未到来，二季度的数据只会更糟。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">　　预计美国经济将创纪录下跌</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　周三，美国将公布第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值，这将是本周最重磅的数据。市场预期值为-4%，远低于前值的2.1%。若市场预期成真，这将是2009年以来最大的季度跌幅。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　这份重磅报告发布前，一些前瞻性的指标也预示着情况可能十分糟糕：例如，在特朗普政府担任高级经济顾问的凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）警告称，由于受到新冠病毒危机的影响，美国经济可能会在今年晚些时候以“大萧条”以来最严重的速度萎缩。哈西特在接受CNBC旗下节目“Squawk Box”采访时表示，定于周三公布的报告将会显示，第一季度美国GDP增长率的初值将为负数。但他同时表示，新冠病毒对美国经济的真正损害将在未来进一步显示出来。他说道：“在第二季度，你会看到GDP出现大约-20%到-30%的负增长。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　此外，一系列经济增长数据都令人沮丧。据美国政府上周五公布的数据显示，3月份耐用品订单暴跌14.4%。哈西特预计，美国到6月失业率将为16%-20%，美国第二季度GDP将为“极大的负值”。而据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，第二季度实际GDP同比萎缩12%，环比萎缩39.6%。第二季度美国平均失业率接近14%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　据环球时报援引路透社报道称，欧美各大企业近日开始陆续发布一季度业绩。<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00005\">汇丰控股</a></span><span></span>有限公司周二表示，2020年第一季度利润同比锐减57%，主要原因是全球新冠疫情大流行和油价下跌导致预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备增加。据悉，疫情已导致北美几十家汽车工厂停工，汽车需求锐减，为了安然度过此次疫情，两家公司争相囤积现金。此外，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a></span><span></span>等即将发布的财报也不被看好，给一季度业绩蒙上阴云。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　据新华社稍早前报道，美国全国商业经济协会主席康斯坦斯·亨特表示，今年上半年美国经济将继续萎缩，但受访经济学家对美国经济在下半年恢复增长持乐观态度。她表示，尽管当前美国就业市场形势严重恶化，但在财政和货币政策支持下，预计今年年底前美国就业市场将逐步改善，受访经济学家预计美联储将把联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平直到2021年。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">　　美联储决议凌晨重磅来袭</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　北京时间周四02：00，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议。继3月份大幅降息后，外界普遍预计美联储周三将维持利率不变。经济学家和策略师表示，会议议程可能包括就基准利率将在低位维持多久给出更明确的指引。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　美联储已经明确表示，该央行联储当前购买的美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券是“无限制的”——实际上这是一种没有上限的量化宽松（QE）。同时，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。美联储将有机会对第一季GDP数据发表评论，这将是市场分析师在鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会上关注的问题。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　道明证券大宗商品策略师Ryan McKay表示：“我认为美联储不会继续降低利率。他们已经尽可能地降低利率了。他们对经济增长前景和复苏可能需要多长时间的评论无疑是重要的。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　华尔街预计，在可预见的未来，美联储将继续控制利率，并继续维持流动性和贷款计划，直到美国经济恢复元气、金融市场平稳运行为止。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　野村证券（Nomura）首席美国经济学家Lewis Alexander在一份报告中说，本周的会议“是在美联储历史上最活跃、最精简的决策期之后举行的。鉴于美联储已经采取了很多措施，我们预计美联储的政策不会有重大创新……至于短期利率的走势，我们预计FOMC将重申，他们预计在可预见的未来将把目标保持在当前水平。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　美联储不会调整当前处于0%至0.25%的联邦基金利率目标，但可能会调整用于支付银行存放在美联储的超额准备金的利率，其目前为0.1%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　不过，美联储观察人士预计，美联储将在稍后的一次会议上发布更正式的声明，本月的承诺将只是泛泛而谈。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　花旗集团（Citigroup）经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst写道：“我们预计声明将进行调整，或许会说，在复苏‘顺利展开’、委员会‘有信心’实现双重使命之前，利率将保持在低位。在某个时间点，可能是在夏末，我们预计美联储将明确承诺保持低利率，直到通胀率达到或超过2%，并维持一段时间。然而，由于利率已经很低，未来几个月还有很多不确定性需要解决，我们认为美联储没有理由在4月份的会议上宣布这一决定。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a></span><span></span>（Goldman Sachs）经济学家表示：由于主席鲍威尔此前表示，“官员们对当前的政策举措感到满意”。因此，他们现在预测，美联储要到2023年底才会加息。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">　　黄金蓄势待发，刚突破1727</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　投资者或是出于对经济数据以及美联储决议的担忧，美股震荡收跌纳指跌逾百点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　截至收盘，标普500指数下跌15.10点，跌幅0.52%报2863.39点；<span>纳斯达克</span><span></span>指数下跌122.40点，跌幅1.40%报8607.73点；<span>道琼斯</span><span></span>指数下跌32.20点，跌幅0.13%报24101.55点。而有华尔街大空头之称的加拿大独立财富管理公司首席经济学家兼策略师、前美林经济学家戴维·罗森伯格则悲观地预测：真正的“大萧条”即将来临，比十年前有过之而无不及。他预计，在最坏情形下，二季度标普500最低可能跌至1800点，这较目前还有近四成的下跌空间。周一标普500收报2878.48点，涨1.47%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　而有避险属性的黄金也出于十字路口，始终维持弱反弹走势，金价稍早一度突破1727美元/盎司附近。周二美市盘中，现货黄金短线一度急跌逾20美元至1690美元/盎司略上方。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　因投资者获利了结，且有迹象显示各国可能很快放松由新冠病毒引发的封锁措施。据新京报报道，目前，已有多国宣布将放松之前的管控措施。意大利全国将于5月4日起重新恢复开放。继意大利之后，丹麦也宣布解除封锁的决定。德国政府规定，占地面积小于800平方米的商店已于4月20日恢复营业。部分学校将于5月4日恢复上课，首批复课的是需要参加升学考试的学生。不过，封锁限制仍需维持至5月3日。法国政府也宣布，从5月11日起，中小学、幼儿园及部分商场可以逐步开放。但咖啡厅、电影院、餐厅及旅馆等场所将继续关闭。这提振了市场风险情绪，周二黄金价格一度跌至一周低点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">　　不过，有分析师指出，全国各国政府史无前例的刺激措施仍然对金价提供潜在支撑。避险黄金往往会从各国央行和政府的广泛刺激措施中受益，因为它被普遍视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。</p>\n\n<p>责任编辑：孟然 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今晚美国GDP数据公布 华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今晚美国GDP数据公布 华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-29 13:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-04-29/doc-iircuyvi0484047.shtml><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：今晚美国GDP数据公布，史上最强经济扩张周期要终结？华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点 来源：每日经济新闻\n　　据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学28日发布的新冠疫情最新统计数据显示，美国累计新冠确诊病例超过100万例，死亡57533例，确诊和死亡病例数全球最多。\n　　本周三，美国公布一季度经济数据。受新冠肺炎疫情冲击，外媒对即将发布的数据颇为悲观。据环球时报报道，美国《商业内幕》网站27日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-04-29/doc-iircuyvi0484047.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","SPY":"标普500ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-04-29/doc-iircuyvi0484047.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2031044618","content_text":"原标题：今晚美国GDP数据公布，史上最强经济扩张周期要终结？华尔街大空头唱衰标普500至1800点 来源：每日经济新闻\n　　据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学28日发布的新冠疫情最新统计数据显示，美国累计新冠确诊病例超过100万例，死亡57533例，确诊和死亡病例数全球最多。\n　　本周三，美国公布一季度经济数据。受新冠肺炎疫情冲击，外媒对即将发布的数据颇为悲观。据环球时报报道，美国《商业内幕》网站27日报道称，美国总统特朗普的高级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特周一表示，对一季度GDP的初步预期为负数。他警告称，由于新冠病毒危机，美国经济今年可能会出现大萧条以来最严重的收缩，“二季度GDP萎缩程度可能达到20%到30%”。\n　　美媒27日报道称，接受该报调查的经济学家预计，经季节调整后的一季度美国经济总量将缩减3.5%，这将是美国经济6年来首次出现季度缩减，同时也是2009年初以来的最大跌幅。此外，由于疫情是在3月中旬才真正对美国经济造成重大影响，而一季度大多数时间里美国经济基本保持平稳运行，因此可以预见美国经济最糟糕的局面尚未到来，二季度的数据只会更糟。\n　　预计美国经济将创纪录下跌\n　　周三，美国将公布第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值，这将是本周最重磅的数据。市场预期值为-4%，远低于前值的2.1%。若市场预期成真，这将是2009年以来最大的季度跌幅。\n　　这份重磅报告发布前，一些前瞻性的指标也预示着情况可能十分糟糕：例如，在特朗普政府担任高级经济顾问的凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）警告称，由于受到新冠病毒危机的影响，美国经济可能会在今年晚些时候以“大萧条”以来最严重的速度萎缩。哈西特在接受CNBC旗下节目“Squawk Box”采访时表示，定于周三公布的报告将会显示，第一季度美国GDP增长率的初值将为负数。但他同时表示，新冠病毒对美国经济的真正损害将在未来进一步显示出来。他说道：“在第二季度，你会看到GDP出现大约-20%到-30%的负增长。”\n　　此外，一系列经济增长数据都令人沮丧。据美国政府上周五公布的数据显示，3月份耐用品订单暴跌14.4%。哈西特预计，美国到6月失业率将为16%-20%，美国第二季度GDP将为“极大的负值”。而据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，第二季度实际GDP同比萎缩12%，环比萎缩39.6%。第二季度美国平均失业率接近14%。\n　　据环球时报援引路透社报道称，欧美各大企业近日开始陆续发布一季度业绩。汇丰控股有限公司周二表示，2020年第一季度利润同比锐减57%，主要原因是全球新冠疫情大流行和油价下跌导致预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备增加。据悉，疫情已导致北美几十家汽车工厂停工，汽车需求锐减，为了安然度过此次疫情，两家公司争相囤积现金。此外，苹果、亚马逊等即将发布的财报也不被看好，给一季度业绩蒙上阴云。\n　　据新华社稍早前报道，美国全国商业经济协会主席康斯坦斯·亨特表示，今年上半年美国经济将继续萎缩，但受访经济学家对美国经济在下半年恢复增长持乐观态度。她表示，尽管当前美国就业市场形势严重恶化，但在财政和货币政策支持下，预计今年年底前美国就业市场将逐步改善，受访经济学家预计美联储将把联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平直到2021年。\n　　美联储决议凌晨重磅来袭\n　　北京时间周四02：00，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议。继3月份大幅降息后，外界普遍预计美联储周三将维持利率不变。经济学家和策略师表示，会议议程可能包括就基准利率将在低位维持多久给出更明确的指引。\n　　美联储已经明确表示，该央行联储当前购买的美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券是“无限制的”——实际上这是一种没有上限的量化宽松（QE）。同时，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。美联储将有机会对第一季GDP数据发表评论，这将是市场分析师在鲍威尔周三的新闻发布会上关注的问题。\n　　道明证券大宗商品策略师Ryan McKay表示：“我认为美联储不会继续降低利率。他们已经尽可能地降低利率了。他们对经济增长前景和复苏可能需要多长时间的评论无疑是重要的。”\n　　华尔街预计，在可预见的未来，美联储将继续控制利率，并继续维持流动性和贷款计划，直到美国经济恢复元气、金融市场平稳运行为止。\n　　野村证券（Nomura）首席美国经济学家Lewis Alexander在一份报告中说，本周的会议“是在美联储历史上最活跃、最精简的决策期之后举行的。鉴于美联储已经采取了很多措施，我们预计美联储的政策不会有重大创新……至于短期利率的走势，我们预计FOMC将重申，他们预计在可预见的未来将把目标保持在当前水平。”\n　　美联储不会调整当前处于0%至0.25%的联邦基金利率目标，但可能会调整用于支付银行存放在美联储的超额准备金的利率，其目前为0.1%。\n　　不过，美联储观察人士预计，美联储将在稍后的一次会议上发布更正式的声明，本月的承诺将只是泛泛而谈。\n　　花旗集团（Citigroup）经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst写道：“我们预计声明将进行调整，或许会说，在复苏‘顺利展开’、委员会‘有信心’实现双重使命之前，利率将保持在低位。在某个时间点，可能是在夏末，我们预计美联储将明确承诺保持低利率，直到通胀率达到或超过2%，并维持一段时间。然而，由于利率已经很低，未来几个月还有很多不确定性需要解决，我们认为美联储没有理由在4月份的会议上宣布这一决定。”\n　　高盛（Goldman Sachs）经济学家表示：由于主席鲍威尔此前表示，“官员们对当前的政策举措感到满意”。因此，他们现在预测，美联储要到2023年底才会加息。\n　　黄金蓄势待发，刚突破1727\n　　投资者或是出于对经济数据以及美联储决议的担忧，美股震荡收跌纳指跌逾百点。\n　　截至收盘，标普500指数下跌15.10点，跌幅0.52%报2863.39点；纳斯达克指数下跌122.40点，跌幅1.40%报8607.73点；道琼斯指数下跌32.20点，跌幅0.13%报24101.55点。而有华尔街大空头之称的加拿大独立财富管理公司首席经济学家兼策略师、前美林经济学家戴维·罗森伯格则悲观地预测：真正的“大萧条”即将来临，比十年前有过之而无不及。他预计，在最坏情形下，二季度标普500最低可能跌至1800点，这较目前还有近四成的下跌空间。周一标普500收报2878.48点，涨1.47%。\n　　而有避险属性的黄金也出于十字路口，始终维持弱反弹走势，金价稍早一度突破1727美元/盎司附近。周二美市盘中，现货黄金短线一度急跌逾20美元至1690美元/盎司略上方。\n　　因投资者获利了结，且有迹象显示各国可能很快放松由新冠病毒引发的封锁措施。据新京报报道，目前，已有多国宣布将放松之前的管控措施。意大利全国将于5月4日起重新恢复开放。继意大利之后，丹麦也宣布解除封锁的决定。德国政府规定，占地面积小于800平方米的商店已于4月20日恢复营业。部分学校将于5月4日恢复上课，首批复课的是需要参加升学考试的学生。不过，封锁限制仍需维持至5月3日。法国政府也宣布，从5月11日起，中小学、幼儿园及部分商场可以逐步开放。但咖啡厅、电影院、餐厅及旅馆等场所将继续关闭。这提振了市场风险情绪，周二黄金价格一度跌至一周低点。\n　　不过，有分析师指出，全国各国政府史无前例的刺激措施仍然对金价提供潜在支撑。避险黄金往往会从各国央行和政府的广泛刺激措施中受益，因为它被普遍视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。\n责任编辑：孟然","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925592504,"gmtCreate":1588065791008,"gmtModify":1704366259233,"author":{"id":"3491782297849792","authorId":"3491782297849792","name":"七页禾","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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