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总有一个人
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IP属地:北京
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总有一个人
10-30
这个手机不错[财迷]
总有一个人
10-09
[微笑]
港股、A股、A50午后拉升!创业板跌幅收窄至1.5%,恒生科技指数超3%
总有一个人
10-09
Replying to
@MoneyNVRslps
:[开心]//
@MoneyNVRslps
:好
@总有一个人:哈哈哈哈哈[惊讶][开心] @京华烟云$ @总有一个人 江湖夜雨十年灯$ [生气]从前有座山,山上有个庙,庙里有个小和尚,小和尚问老和尚 啥啥啥$
总有一个人
09-29
真不错啊
奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息
总有一个人
08-30
6666
@小虎活动:【有奖活动】推荐一只小众宝藏概念股
总有一个人
08-19
[呆住]
大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!
总有一个人
08-19
[财迷]
大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!
总有一个人
2021-10-22
22
@爱发红包的虎妞:【投票】选出你心中的🐯IP形象!
总有一个人
2021-10-22
33
@美股解毒师:苹果隐私新规伤害了谁?哪些票反而受益?
总有一个人
2021-10-09
厉害了
@你的富富学姐:凭借《长津湖》,吴京电影作品总票房破218亿,成为中国大陆最吸金的男演员。做演员,吴京很成功。搞投资,吴京更厉害!@小虎AV@话题虎 $博纳影业(BONA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $上海电影(601595)$
总有一个人
2021-10-09
6666666
好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚好好玩和维护恍恍惚惚
6666666
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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13:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨超3%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超2%,此前一度跌超3%;A股三大股指午后走强,创业板指再度拉升,跌幅收窄至1.5%,沪指现跌2.5%;富时中国A50指数期货涨近1%,此前一度跌超4%。</p><p>消息面:国务院新闻办公室将于2024年10月12日(星期六)上午10时举行新闻发布会,请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况,并答记者问。</p><p>此外,中国人民银行网站今日消息,中国人民银行、财政部建立联合工作组,并于近日召开工作组首次正式会议。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长宣昌能,财政部党组成员、副部长廖岷出席会议并讲话。会议充分肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作,确立了工作组运行机制,并就债券市场运行情况等议题互换了意见。双方一致认为央行国债买卖是丰富货币政策工具箱、加强流动性管理的重要手段。下一步,要统筹发展和安全,继续加强政策协同,不断优化相关制度安排,在规范中维护债券市场平稳发展,为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环境。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f725b9c7e62df70c7c8f4295cc40729\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec08ec44431c61e2493b56bd528bbc05\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d114431202d639763f79f8b5f6b5d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145913583","content_text":"10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨超3%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超2%,此前一度跌超3%;A股三大股指午后走强,创业板指再度拉升,跌幅收窄至1.5%,沪指现跌2.5%;富时中国A50指数期货涨近1%,此前一度跌超4%。消息面:国务院新闻办公室将于2024年10月12日(星期六)上午10时举行新闻发布会,请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况,并答记者问。此外,中国人民银行网站今日消息,中国人民银行、财政部建立联合工作组,并于近日召开工作组首次正式会议。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长宣昌能,财政部党组成员、副部长廖岷出席会议并讲话。会议充分肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作,确立了工作组运行机制,并就债券市场运行情况等议题互换了意见。双方一致认为央行国债买卖是丰富货币政策工具箱、加强流动性管理的重要手段。下一步,要统筹发展和安全,继续加强政策协同,不断优化相关制度安排,在规范中维护债券市场平稳发展,为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358065350193400,"gmtCreate":1728455008866,"gmtModify":1728455011914,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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啥啥啥$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625188591","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"748b8549cb0f4816bccf3562254053ce","tweetId":"625188591","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b9972fcfvodtranscq1254107296/a1df06d7243791579565149311/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4111b6a8f5e90548328ead2a9685e3"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354708882841728,"gmtCreate":1727608396673,"gmtModify":1727608398625,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真不错啊","listText":"真不错啊","text":"真不错啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354708882841728","repostId":"1171533924","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171533924","pubTimestamp":1727603478,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171533924?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-29 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171533924","media":"IT之家","summary":"某欧洲豪华品牌要用奇瑞的技术平台造车。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌<strong>玛莎拉蒂</strong>,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“<strong>并无相关消息</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,<strong>欧洲两家豪华品牌</strong>将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个海外品牌也在谈。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370cf679caa1bb884626380888830c5a\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"780\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有不具名知情人士称,和奇瑞汽车谈合作的欧洲豪华品牌<strong>大概是玛莎拉蒂</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尹同跃曾在 4 月放话称,星途星纪元品牌“要往高端走”,要打造成“<strong>奇瑞的 BBA</strong>”,就像丰田的雷克萨斯。他还称,奇瑞是中国汽车出口第一名 —— 不用加定语,各个维度都是。“中国出口的乘用车,每三台就有一台是奇瑞。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在电动化转型层面,玛莎拉蒂已推出纯电 SUV 格雷嘉车型。此外,GranCabrio 纯电敞篷跑车已完成首秀。按照计划,到 2025 年玛莎拉蒂全系都将拥有纯电车型。</p></body></html>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌玛莎拉蒂,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“并无相关消息”。关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,欧洲两家豪华品牌将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbfc50a8887622e5e974936a912256d1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171533924","content_text":"日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌玛莎拉蒂,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“并无相关消息”。关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,欧洲两家豪华品牌将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个海外品牌也在谈。”有不具名知情人士称,和奇瑞汽车谈合作的欧洲豪华品牌大概是玛莎拉蒂。尹同跃曾在 4 月放话称,星途星纪元品牌“要往高端走”,要打造成“奇瑞的 BBA”,就像丰田的雷克萨斯。他还称,奇瑞是中国汽车出口第一名 —— 不用加定语,各个维度都是。“中国出口的乘用车,每三台就有一台是奇瑞。”在电动化转型层面,玛莎拉蒂已推出纯电 SUV 格雷嘉车型。此外,GranCabrio 纯电敞篷跑车已完成首秀。按照计划,到 2025 年玛莎拉蒂全系都将拥有纯电车型。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343943994581280,"gmtCreate":1724999953265,"gmtModify":1724999954791,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343943994581280","repostId":"343972330213616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":343972330213616,"gmtCreate":1724999180626,"gmtModify":1725009002828,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖活动】推荐一只小众宝藏概念股","htmlText":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","listText":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","text":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d189326450e43edeff780d1ce2dab0f9","width":"2245","height":"1587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343972330213616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340172874244160,"gmtCreate":1724054174463,"gmtModify":1724054176209,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]","listText":"[呆住]","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340172874244160","repostId":"2460720421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460720421","pubTimestamp":1724043243,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2460720421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-19 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460720421","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。</p><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。</p><p>但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。</p><p>这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fb04c0f9a27af44476c782ecb8e635\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p>过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强</p><p>信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。</p><p>信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。</p><p>随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd1bf96f591d090d3fcf7fa7c411d89\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平</p><p>消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。</p><p>我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><p>当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但<strong>如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大</strong>。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。</p><p><em>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写</em></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 12:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654649f0d683db15e6503138da196ca4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2460720421","content_text":"本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。本文由摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340171709849872,"gmtCreate":1724053958616,"gmtModify":1724053960290,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]","listText":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340171709849872","repostId":"2460720421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460720421","pubTimestamp":1724043243,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2460720421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-19 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460720421","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。</p><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。</p><p>但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。</p><p>这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fb04c0f9a27af44476c782ecb8e635\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p>过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强</p><p>信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。</p><p>信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。</p><p>随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd1bf96f591d090d3fcf7fa7c411d89\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平</p><p>消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。</p><p>我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><p>当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但<strong>如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大</strong>。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。</p><p><em>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写</em></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 12:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654649f0d683db15e6503138da196ca4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2460720421","content_text":"本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。本文由摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth 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13:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股、A股、A50午后拉升!创业板跌幅收窄至1.5%,恒生科技指数超3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145913583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨2%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超1%,此前一度跌超3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨超3%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超2%,此前一度跌超3%;A股三大股指午后走强,创业板指再度拉升,跌幅收窄至1.5%,沪指现跌2.5%;富时中国A50指数期货涨近1%,此前一度跌超4%。</p><p>消息面:国务院新闻办公室将于2024年10月12日(星期六)上午10时举行新闻发布会,请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况,并答记者问。</p><p>此外,中国人民银行网站今日消息,中国人民银行、财政部建立联合工作组,并于近日召开工作组首次正式会议。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长宣昌能,财政部党组成员、副部长廖岷出席会议并讲话。会议充分肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作,确立了工作组运行机制,并就债券市场运行情况等议题互换了意见。双方一致认为央行国债买卖是丰富货币政策工具箱、加强流动性管理的重要手段。下一步,要统筹发展和安全,继续加强政策协同,不断优化相关制度安排,在规范中维护债券市场平稳发展,为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环境。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f725b9c7e62df70c7c8f4295cc40729\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec08ec44431c61e2493b56bd528bbc05\" 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13:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨超3%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超2%,此前一度跌超3%;A股三大股指午后走强,创业板指再度拉升,跌幅收窄至1.5%,沪指现跌2.5%;富时中国A50指数期货涨近1%,此前一度跌超4%。</p><p>消息面:国务院新闻办公室将于2024年10月12日(星期六)上午10时举行新闻发布会,请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况,并答记者问。</p><p>此外,中国人民银行网站今日消息,中国人民银行、财政部建立联合工作组,并于近日召开工作组首次正式会议。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长宣昌能,财政部党组成员、副部长廖岷出席会议并讲话。会议充分肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作,确立了工作组运行机制,并就债券市场运行情况等议题互换了意见。双方一致认为央行国债买卖是丰富货币政策工具箱、加强流动性管理的重要手段。下一步,要统筹发展和安全,继续加强政策协同,不断优化相关制度安排,在规范中维护债券市场平稳发展,为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环境。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f725b9c7e62df70c7c8f4295cc40729\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec08ec44431c61e2493b56bd528bbc05\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d114431202d639763f79f8b5f6b5d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145913583","content_text":"10月9日,港股短线拉升,恒生科技指数现涨超3%,此前一度跌超4%。恒指涨超2%,此前一度跌超3%;A股三大股指午后走强,创业板指再度拉升,跌幅收窄至1.5%,沪指现跌2.5%;富时中国A50指数期货涨近1%,此前一度跌超4%。消息面:国务院新闻办公室将于2024年10月12日(星期六)上午10时举行新闻发布会,请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况,并答记者问。此外,中国人民银行网站今日消息,中国人民银行、财政部建立联合工作组,并于近日召开工作组首次正式会议。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长宣昌能,财政部党组成员、副部长廖岷出席会议并讲话。会议充分肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作,确立了工作组运行机制,并就债券市场运行情况等议题互换了意见。双方一致认为央行国债买卖是丰富货币政策工具箱、加强流动性管理的重要手段。下一步,要统筹发展和安全,继续加强政策协同,不断优化相关制度安排,在规范中维护债券市场平稳发展,为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358065350193400,"gmtCreate":1728455008866,"gmtModify":1728455011914,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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啥啥啥$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625188591","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"748b8549cb0f4816bccf3562254053ce","tweetId":"625188591","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b9972fcfvodtranscq1254107296/a1df06d7243791579565149311/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4111b6a8f5e90548328ead2a9685e3"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354708882841728,"gmtCreate":1727608396673,"gmtModify":1727608398625,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真不错啊","listText":"真不错啊","text":"真不错啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354708882841728","repostId":"1171533924","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171533924","pubTimestamp":1727603478,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171533924?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-29 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171533924","media":"IT之家","summary":"某欧洲豪华品牌要用奇瑞的技术平台造车。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌<strong>玛莎拉蒂</strong>,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“<strong>并无相关消息</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,<strong>欧洲两家豪华品牌</strong>将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个海外品牌也在谈。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370cf679caa1bb884626380888830c5a\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"780\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有不具名知情人士称,和奇瑞汽车谈合作的欧洲豪华品牌<strong>大概是玛莎拉蒂</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尹同跃曾在 4 月放话称,星途星纪元品牌“要往高端走”,要打造成“<strong>奇瑞的 BBA</strong>”,就像丰田的雷克萨斯。他还称,奇瑞是中国汽车出口第一名 —— 不用加定语,各个维度都是。“中国出口的乘用车,每三台就有一台是奇瑞。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在电动化转型层面,玛莎拉蒂已推出纯电 SUV 格雷嘉车型。此外,GranCabrio 纯电敞篷跑车已完成首秀。按照计划,到 2025 年玛莎拉蒂全系都将拥有纯电车型。</p></body></html>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n奇瑞回应“收购玛莎拉蒂”传闻:并无相关消息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌玛莎拉蒂,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“并无相关消息”。关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,欧洲两家豪华品牌将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbfc50a8887622e5e974936a912256d1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/799/374.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171533924","content_text":"日前有消息称,Stellantis 集团正在考虑向中国车企出售旗下超豪华汽车品牌玛莎拉蒂,该品牌有望被奇瑞拿下。对此,奇瑞方面的回复为“并无相关消息”。关于奇瑞和玛莎拉蒂两家车企的传闻可追溯至今年 4 月 14 日。奇瑞董事长在驾驶星纪元 ET 进行长途高速高阶智驾挑战直播时透露,欧洲两家豪华品牌将用奇瑞平台生产高端汽车。“某欧洲豪华品牌要用星途星纪元的技术平台造车,有一家已接近落实签约,另一个海外品牌也在谈。”有不具名知情人士称,和奇瑞汽车谈合作的欧洲豪华品牌大概是玛莎拉蒂。尹同跃曾在 4 月放话称,星途星纪元品牌“要往高端走”,要打造成“奇瑞的 BBA”,就像丰田的雷克萨斯。他还称,奇瑞是中国汽车出口第一名 —— 不用加定语,各个维度都是。“中国出口的乘用车,每三台就有一台是奇瑞。”在电动化转型层面,玛莎拉蒂已推出纯电 SUV 格雷嘉车型。此外,GranCabrio 纯电敞篷跑车已完成首秀。按照计划,到 2025 年玛莎拉蒂全系都将拥有纯电车型。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343943994581280,"gmtCreate":1724999953265,"gmtModify":1724999954791,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343943994581280","repostId":"343972330213616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":343972330213616,"gmtCreate":1724999180626,"gmtModify":1725009002828,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖活动】推荐一只小众宝藏概念股","htmlText":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","listText":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","text":"在投资的世界里,主流股票往往是大家关注的焦点,而那些被忽视的小众股票则可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。就像在一个宝藏地图上寻找隐藏的宝物一样,有时我们需要在不被主流视野覆盖的角落里挖掘出真正的投资机会。这次,小虎君号召广大虎友来分享你们心目中的“小众宝藏概念股”!你心中有哪只“非主流”股票值得推荐?它是否有着独特的市场潜力或成长空间?又是什么让你对这只股票充满信心?快来和大家分享你的独到见解吧!【参与方式】转发本帖,并艾特至少一位朋友,邀请他们一起参与这次“宝藏探寻之旅”。推荐一只你认为有潜力的小众宝藏概念股。分享你的推荐理由,包括但不限于公司基本面、行业前景、市场机会等。【活动时间】2024年8月30日 - 2024年9月6日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币,转发本帖并艾特朋友参与活动,可额外获得5虎币。人气奖:评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得5美元股票代金券幸运奖:我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友,赠送一份老虎周边礼物","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d189326450e43edeff780d1ce2dab0f9","width":"2245","height":"1587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343972330213616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340172874244160,"gmtCreate":1724054174463,"gmtModify":1724054176209,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]","listText":"[呆住]","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340172874244160","repostId":"2460720421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460720421","pubTimestamp":1724043243,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2460720421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-19 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460720421","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。</p><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。</p><p>但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。</p><p>这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fb04c0f9a27af44476c782ecb8e635\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p>过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强</p><p>信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。</p><p>信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。</p><p>随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd1bf96f591d090d3fcf7fa7c411d89\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平</p><p>消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。</p><p>我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><p>当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但<strong>如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大</strong>。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。</p><p><em>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写</em></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 12:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654649f0d683db15e6503138da196ca4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2460720421","content_text":"本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。本文由摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340171709849872,"gmtCreate":1724053958616,"gmtModify":1724053960290,"author":{"id":"3490154805324323","authorId":"3490154805324323","name":"总有一个人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1c1d859175532897ec67aabcc7e04a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490154805324323","authorIdStr":"3490154805324323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]","listText":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340171709849872","repostId":"2460720421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460720421","pubTimestamp":1724043243,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2460720421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-19 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460720421","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。</p><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。</p><p>但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。</p><p>这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fb04c0f9a27af44476c782ecb8e635\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p>过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强</p><p>信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。</p><p>信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。</p><p>随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd1bf96f591d090d3fcf7fa7c411d89\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平</p><p>消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。</p><p>我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><p>当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但<strong>如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大</strong>。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。</p><p><em>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席经济学家Seth Carpenter撰写</em></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 12:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654649f0d683db15e6503138da196ca4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146100&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2460720421","content_text":"本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会,这次会议的主题恰如其分:“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。但我之前曾撰文指出,如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆,因为除了劳动力需求下降之外,它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中,劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓,但裁员率仍然很低。此外,在过去的周期中,失业率发出的信号并不明显,因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看,信贷利差呈扩大趋势,但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的,市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放,随着收益率的压缩,投资级债券(IG)和高收益债券(HY)发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上,本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于,目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组,而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。随着美联储降低利率,即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。信贷利差虽然有所扩大,但远低于衰退水平消费支出(约占美国经济的70%)是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升,远远超过了其趋势,因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。我们认为,这一进程正在进行中,上周的零售销售报告表明,美国消费者还很活跃。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。当然,我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制,但如果8月份的数据继续下滑,我们预计降息幅度会更大。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。本文由摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth 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