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廖c
2019-12-14
合理估值在20-25美金理由:1、收入符合预期,但亏损严重超预期,这也是导 致三季度报一出来就暴跌的原因,其中有代表性的是安信,强推的理由是预期19年亏损为52亿,但目前前三季度的亏损已经达到了54.45亿,从四季度的补贴力度来看,这个亏损不会低,年报的业绩亏损,一定是大幅超过市场预期的50多亿。假设618百亿补贴及后续补贴导致二季度亏损达到70亿,那么四季度的亏损一定是惊人的,有可能全年亏损会超过市场研报分析的一倍以上,这对年报来说是一个大雷。2、双11百亿补贴带来的数据:根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。这也是拼多多一直不公布数据的原因,补贴超预期,亏损超预期,但成交数据不及预期。3、黑五的数据也是一直没公布。加上双12,整个第四季度的补贴,这里面的GMV超预期,营收超预期,但是四季度补贴带来亏损严重超预期,而且微信在10月份封杀了拼多多外链,这会影响到拼多多的获客成本,进一步影响全年支出和利润。
廖c
2019-12-14
$拼多多(PDD)$
一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响
廖c
2019-12-14
为啥我看跌拼多多,是个好公司,但是不值这个价
$拼多多(PDD)$
2018年数据GMV:4716亿元,较2017年的1412亿元增长233.99%。用户:4.185亿,较2017年的2.448亿同比增长71%。瑞银认为到2021年为6.28亿。营收:131.2亿元,亏损39.583亿元。支出:134.418亿元,超全年营收。其中第四季度包括双11,双12,营销费用60.24亿元。获客成本:142.86亿元,17年为17.38元。股价:23美金 2019年数据一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。注:一季度亏损超预期,股价创近期新低。 二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响 四季度预测:(双11,双12,11.29号黑五,百亿补贴及后续补贴) GMV:符合预期 &nbs
为啥我看跌拼多多,是个好公司,但是不值这个价
廖c
2019-12-14
$拼多多(PDD)$
11月12日凌晨,2019年双十一落下帷幕,天猫、京东等电商平台纷纷亮出战绩。 天猫成交额达到了2684亿,在双十一当天仅仅96分钟就突破了100亿的成交额,创下历史记录。过去一年历经舆论风波与内部改革的京东也完成2044亿的销售额,同比增长28%,一扫颓势,稳坐电商次席。 奇怪的是,一向善于营销甚至不惜大价钱干预舆情的拼多多此时却失声了,仅仅公布了前期iPhone手机超过40万台和16分钟破1000台的汽车销售数据,没有其他信息披露。 然而在大数据时代,拼多多不愿示人的尴尬还是被挖了出来。 根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。 而这个成绩,还是拼多多使出了“百亿补贴”大招才获得的。 号称用户5亿,占了全国网购市场用户的一半,在关键时刻,却被用户掉了这样的链子。
廖c
2019-12-13
$拼多多(PDD)$
为何黄铮吹拼多多成交额高又被打脸,股价暴跌?为何拼多多说双11百亿补贴造势那么强却一直不敢公布数据?为何延续百亿补贴,要营业额不要利润,只吹营业额?因为利润做不出来?为何市面上所有研报只吹营业额,不提增速放缓,不提百亿补贴带来的业绩亏损爆雷?第四季度的百亿补贴会造成亏损额度多大?谁能给我解答?
廖c
2019-12-04
$拼多多(PDD)$
每次都控盘的那么明显,真不怕死?
廖c
2019-04-16
$腾讯音乐(TME)$可以做空腾讯音乐吗
廖c
2019-03-04
$趣头条(QTT)$ 为什么禁止做空?
廖c
2019-02-08
$拼多多(PDD)$ 为什么这时候出来ads,为什么是25元,为什么又放大量,25元承销商不认可的话认购不足,后期是不是可以改。这几天可以弄清楚这几个问题了
廖c
2019-02-08
$拼多多(PDD)$ 10分钟平量,今晚出货吧,我也有机会砸出来
廖c
2019-02-08
$拼多多(PDD)$ 满仓中,今晚放量砸盘就出货
廖c
2019-02-06
$拼多多(PDD)$ 有著腾讯支持的拼多多计划赴美上市,以每股16至19美元的价格发行美国存托凭证(ADR)。假设未行使超额配股,IPO(首次公开发行)后黄峥将持股46.8%。查了下资料,接近10个亿美金的盘子砸出来。目前流通值38.5亿美金。目前总市值336亿,也就是还有接近290亿流通盘没有消息,这两天看好戏了
廖c
2019-02-06
$拼多多(PDD)$ 谁有最新的消息,在哪里看的,麻烦分享下哈,开始出货了?
廖c
2019-01-31
$蔚来(NIO)$ 别看空了,蔚来操盘手才上班
廖c
2019-01-31
$拼多多(PDD)$ 还没形成下降趋势,继续放量砸吧,刹不住车的时候就是人气来的时候。拼多多的归路结果都一样,就是时间问题
廖c
2019-01-31
$蔚来(NIO)$ 至少到8块,一周内
廖c
2019-01-30
$拼多多(PDD)$ 操盘手能扛,配合大环境转好出货,这操作服气,但是照样砸,时间问题
廖c
2019-01-29
$拼多多(PDD)$ 不说别的,全力看空,拼多多扛到现在时间到了
廖c
2018-11-10
$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 大盘砸成这样蔚来还不砸?还有重大利空,绝对有控盘嫌疑
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919992322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919992094,"gmtCreate":1576294321018,"gmtModify":1704271642790,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"为啥我看跌拼多多,是个好公司,但是不值这个价","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>2018年数据GMV:4716亿元,较2017年的1412亿元增长233.99%。用户:4.185亿,较2017年的2.448亿同比增长71%。瑞银认为到2021年为6.28亿。营收:131.2亿元,亏损39.583亿元。支出:134.418亿元,超全年营收。其中第四季度包括双11,双12,营销费用60.24亿元。获客成本:142.86亿元,17年为17.38元。股价:23美金 2019年数据一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。注:一季度亏损超预期,股价创近期新低。 二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响 四季度预测:(双11,双12,11.29号黑五,百亿补贴及后续补贴) GMV:符合预期 &nbs","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>2018年数据GMV:4716亿元,较2017年的1412亿元增长233.99%。用户:4.185亿,较2017年的2.448亿同比增长71%。瑞银认为到2021年为6.28亿。营收:131.2亿元,亏损39.583亿元。支出:134.418亿元,超全年营收。其中第四季度包括双11,双12,营销费用60.24亿元。获客成本:142.86亿元,17年为17.38元。股价:23美金 2019年数据一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。注:一季度亏损超预期,股价创近期新低。 二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响 四季度预测:(双11,双12,11.29号黑五,百亿补贴及后续补贴) GMV:符合预期 &nbs","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$2018年数据GMV:4716亿元,较2017年的1412亿元增长233.99%。用户:4.185亿,较2017年的2.448亿同比增长71%。瑞银认为到2021年为6.28亿。营收:131.2亿元,亏损39.583亿元。支出:134.418亿元,超全年营收。其中第四季度包括双11,双12,营销费用60.24亿元。获客成本:142.86亿元,17年为17.38元。股价:23美金 2019年数据一季度:GMV:5574亿用户:2.89亿,同期增长74%营收:45.45亿,亏损16.21亿。支出:48.9亿,同比增长302%。股价:18美金。注:一季度亏损超预期,股价创近期新低。 二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响 四季度预测:(双11,双12,11.29号黑五,百亿补贴及后续补贴) GMV:符合预期 &nbs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919992094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919906479,"gmtCreate":1576283315491,"gmtModify":1704271628966,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>11月12日凌晨,2019年双十一落下帷幕,天猫、京东等电商平台纷纷亮出战绩。 天猫成交额达到了2684亿,在双十一当天仅仅96分钟就突破了100亿的成交额,创下历史记录。过去一年历经舆论风波与内部改革的京东也完成2044亿的销售额,同比增长28%,一扫颓势,稳坐电商次席。 奇怪的是,一向善于营销甚至不惜大价钱干预舆情的拼多多此时却失声了,仅仅公布了前期iPhone手机超过40万台和16分钟破1000台的汽车销售数据,没有其他信息披露。 然而在大数据时代,拼多多不愿示人的尴尬还是被挖了出来。 根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。 而这个成绩,还是拼多多使出了“百亿补贴”大招才获得的。 号称用户5亿,占了全国网购市场用户的一半,在关键时刻,却被用户掉了这样的链子。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>11月12日凌晨,2019年双十一落下帷幕,天猫、京东等电商平台纷纷亮出战绩。 天猫成交额达到了2684亿,在双十一当天仅仅96分钟就突破了100亿的成交额,创下历史记录。过去一年历经舆论风波与内部改革的京东也完成2044亿的销售额,同比增长28%,一扫颓势,稳坐电商次席。 奇怪的是,一向善于营销甚至不惜大价钱干预舆情的拼多多此时却失声了,仅仅公布了前期iPhone手机超过40万台和16分钟破1000台的汽车销售数据,没有其他信息披露。 然而在大数据时代,拼多多不愿示人的尴尬还是被挖了出来。 根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。 而这个成绩,还是拼多多使出了“百亿补贴”大招才获得的。 号称用户5亿,占了全国网购市场用户的一半,在关键时刻,却被用户掉了这样的链子。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$11月12日凌晨,2019年双十一落下帷幕,天猫、京东等电商平台纷纷亮出战绩。 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二季度:(618百亿补贴及后续补贴)GMV:7091亿用户:3.66亿,较去年同期1.95亿增长88%营收:72.9亿,亏损14.9亿支出:64.67亿股价:30美金注:亏损减少的原因在于:亏损大幅减少的原因在于管理费用项目,今年二季度该项目列报金额为2.783亿元,2018年二季度列报金额为57.71亿元。管理费用显著下降主因是去年同期的一次性股票补偿费用所致。扣除这部分,二季度618百亿补贴带来的亏损是70亿。三季度:GMV:8402亿用户:4.296亿,同比增长85%营收:75.14亿,市场预期74.85亿,去年同期33.72亿。亏损23.35亿,市场预期12.22亿,去年同期10.98亿。 支出:84.72亿,去年同期38.67亿。股价:30美金注:营收超预期,亏损超预期,618后续补贴的影响 四季度预测:(双11,双12,11.29号黑五,百亿补贴及后续补贴) GMV:符合预期 &nbs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919992094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937771687,"gmtCreate":1575416740849,"gmtModify":1704729440571,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>每次都控盘的那么明显,真不怕死?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>每次都控盘的那么明显,真不怕死?","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$每次都控盘的那么明显,真不怕死?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937771687","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395739,"gmtCreate":1549403196040,"gmtModify":1704788928889,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 谁有最新的消息,在哪里看的,麻烦分享下哈,开始出货了?","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 谁有最新的消息,在哪里看的,麻烦分享下哈,开始出货了?","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 谁有最新的消息,在哪里看的,麻烦分享下哈,开始出货了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919994017,"gmtCreate":1576295807539,"gmtModify":1704271644897,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"合理估值在20-25美金理由:1、收入符合预期,但亏损严重超预期,这也是导 致三季度报一出来就暴跌的原因,其中有代表性的是安信,强推的理由是预期19年亏损为52亿,但目前前三季度的亏损已经达到了54.45亿,从四季度的补贴力度来看,这个亏损不会低,年报的业绩亏损,一定是大幅超过市场预期的50多亿。假设618百亿补贴及后续补贴导致二季度亏损达到70亿,那么四季度的亏损一定是惊人的,有可能全年亏损会超过市场研报分析的一倍以上,这对年报来说是一个大雷。2、双11百亿补贴带来的数据:根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。这也是拼多多一直不公布数据的原因,补贴超预期,亏损超预期,但成交数据不及预期。3、黑五的数据也是一直没公布。加上双12,整个第四季度的补贴,这里面的GMV超预期,营收超预期,但是四季度补贴带来亏损严重超预期,而且微信在10月份封杀了拼多多外链,这会影响到拼多多的获客成本,进一步影响全年支出和利润。 ","listText":"合理估值在20-25美金理由:1、收入符合预期,但亏损严重超预期,这也是导 致三季度报一出来就暴跌的原因,其中有代表性的是安信,强推的理由是预期19年亏损为52亿,但目前前三季度的亏损已经达到了54.45亿,从四季度的补贴力度来看,这个亏损不会低,年报的业绩亏损,一定是大幅超过市场预期的50多亿。假设618百亿补贴及后续补贴导致二季度亏损达到70亿,那么四季度的亏损一定是惊人的,有可能全年亏损会超过市场研报分析的一倍以上,这对年报来说是一个大雷。2、双11百亿补贴带来的数据:根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。这也是拼多多一直不公布数据的原因,补贴超预期,亏损超预期,但成交数据不及预期。3、黑五的数据也是一直没公布。加上双12,整个第四季度的补贴,这里面的GMV超预期,营收超预期,但是四季度补贴带来亏损严重超预期,而且微信在10月份封杀了拼多多外链,这会影响到拼多多的获客成本,进一步影响全年支出和利润。 ","text":"合理估值在20-25美金理由:1、收入符合预期,但亏损严重超预期,这也是导 致三季度报一出来就暴跌的原因,其中有代表性的是安信,强推的理由是预期19年亏损为52亿,但目前前三季度的亏损已经达到了54.45亿,从四季度的补贴力度来看,这个亏损不会低,年报的业绩亏损,一定是大幅超过市场预期的50多亿。假设618百亿补贴及后续补贴导致二季度亏损达到70亿,那么四季度的亏损一定是惊人的,有可能全年亏损会超过市场研报分析的一倍以上,这对年报来说是一个大雷。2、双11百亿补贴带来的数据:根据星图数据显示,整个双十一期间,全网销售额高达5735亿元,除去阿里、京东等已经公布的数据,拼多多成交额大约为407亿,只有京东的五分之一。这也是拼多多一直不公布数据的原因,补贴超预期,亏损超预期,但成交数据不及预期。3、黑五的数据也是一直没公布。加上双12,整个第四季度的补贴,这里面的GMV超预期,营收超预期,但是四季度补贴带来亏损严重超预期,而且微信在10月份封杀了拼多多外链,这会影响到拼多多的获客成本,进一步影响全年支出和利润。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919994017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397429,"gmtCreate":1549636623002,"gmtModify":1704789132706,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 10分钟平量,今晚出货吧,我也有机会砸出来","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 10分钟平量,今晚出货吧,我也有机会砸出来","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 10分钟平量,今晚出货吧,我也有机会砸出来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397429","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391855,"gmtCreate":1548888711922,"gmtModify":1704788436513,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 别看空了,蔚来操盘手才上班","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 别看空了,蔚来操盘手才上班","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 别看空了,蔚来操盘手才上班","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391853,"gmtCreate":1548888670001,"gmtModify":1704788436344,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 还没形成下降趋势,继续放量砸吧,刹不住车的时候就是人气来的时候。拼多多的归路结果都一样,就是时间问题","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 还没形成下降趋势,继续放量砸吧,刹不住车的时候就是人气来的时候。拼多多的归路结果都一样,就是时间问题","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 还没形成下降趋势,继续放量砸吧,刹不住车的时候就是人气来的时候。拼多多的归路结果都一样,就是时间问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391853","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391644,"gmtCreate":1548865158025,"gmtModify":1704788412590,"author":{"id":"3485750227749443","authorId":"3485750227749443","name":"廖c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 至少到8块,一周内","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 至少到8块,一周内","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 至少到8块,一周内","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}