jade8668的个人主页 - 老虎社区

jade8668

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IP属地：北京

72关注

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0勋章

2021-04-24

$美团-W(03690)$。。。

2021-04-22

$可口可乐(KO)$。。。。。

2021-04-13

$可口可乐(KO)$。

2021-02-26

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$还有希望？

2021-02-16

初五迎财神。。。

2021-02-13

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$USD100？

2021-02-11

牛年大吉。

2021-02-10

....

2021-02-08

USD300？

2021-02-04

$陆金所(LU)$。。。。。

2021-02-03

特斯拉这个月上usd1000?

2021-02-02

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$不到USD80不卖？

2021-01-26

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$。

2021-01-10

特斯拉比上USD1000

2020-12-28

阿里巴巴可以抄底不？

2020-12-25

特斯拉回涨到USD1000的？

2020-12-20

瑞幸咖啡打不死的小强，中概股下周还能有所表现？

2020-12-19

特斯拉能涨到USD1000？

2020-12-15

。

曾准确预测08年金融危机的大佬：九大理由看空美股

2020-12-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

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&nbsp; &nbsp;","listText":"....&nbsp; &nbsp; 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10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"曾准确预测08年金融危机的大佬：九大理由看空美股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108720766","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"希林警告称，毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让美国经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望。\n\n\n在疫苗等一系","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>希林警告称，毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让美国经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33112cefaca8fcabe66b97de940518\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"372\"></p>\n<p>在疫苗等一系列好消息的推送下，美股近期表现强势，一再创下新高，让投资者兴奋不已。然而，著名经济学家、曾准确预测08年金融危机的华尔街大佬希林（Gary Shilling）却警告说，当下的涨势很可能是速度过快，幅度过大，整体而言过于狂热了。</p>\n<p>这位A. Gary Shilling &amp; Co.创始人，在市场上摸爬滚打半个多世纪的老兵在他最新的Insight报告当中写道：“毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望，相反，国债持有者则会受益。”</p>\n<p>“整个市场完全是按照完美设定定价的。”希林指出，其实很多警报讯号已经很清晰了，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>波动率指数（VIX），2月中旬至今大约200个交易日，始终都高于20。报告援引道琼斯的数据指出，在过去，VIX连续至少100个交易日都高于20的情况总计出现过八次，而每一次到最后，标普500指数都下跌了。</p>\n<p>希林预言说，今年年内，衰退可能性就会重新变得现实起来，而且这样的情况还将在明年一直持续下去。当投资者再也无法忽视这种变故，他们对风险投资的胃口就会大幅度恶化。在下面，希林具体列出了九条让他无法对美国经济和股市前景感到乐观的理由。</p>\n<p>1、新冠病毒疫苗广泛接种，在发达国家恐怕也要等到2021年晚些时候才能实现，而在发展中国家还会更晚。与此同时，各国政府为防疫采取的限制措施，以及消费者害怕感染的恐惧都将持续影响全球经济。</p>\n<p>2、在美国和欧洲都推出目前计划的最新财政刺激方案的情况下，有效疫苗广泛接种，可以让全球经济在2022年增长5.5%，可是，如果疫苗推广速度较慢，则经济增速就可能低到2.2%。美国和欧元区的政策制定者目前都相信，哪怕在疫苗方面进展符合预期的情况下，他们的经济要真正恢复到疫情前的水平，至少也要到2022年。</p>\n<p>3、9月和10月间，美国消费支出增速只有0.5%，明显减缓，而可任意支配个人收入更是下滑0.8%。</p>\n<p>4、美国就业市场虽然在回暖，但是永久性失业数字在攀升。希林在报告当中提醒大家，10月新增之心人数增幅已经缩窄到了63.8万，而永久性失业数量却来到了370万。在他的报告发布后，劳工部的最新数据也发布了，显示11月新增支薪人数为24.5万，永久性失业数字依然保持370万。</p>\n<p>5、到今年年底，针对普通劳动者和自由职业者的各种失业救济补贴就将到期，同时到期的还有禁止房东因为拖欠房租而驱逐租客的禁令、禁止公用事业公司因为拖欠缴费而断供水电煤气的禁令等。如果国会拿不出新的措施，消费支出和经济就将遭遇更严峻的考验。</p>\n<p>6、新的宅家经济形态将持续影响许多行业和企业，而后者当中有不少都未必能够坚持到疫情结束，比如为数众多的餐厅、影剧院和零售店等。截至8月中旬，零售行业破产案已经达到29起，超过了2019年全年的22起，其中不乏Brooks Brothers、J. Crew、Lord &amp; Taylor、杰西潘尼等知名品牌。航空旅行需求，尤其是很多商务航空旅行需求很可能将彻底消失，因为企业正在习惯用线上会议代替面对面开会。</p>\n<p>7、国会预算办公室估计，从2020年到2030年，美国国内生产总值年平均增长速度将只有1.8%，明显低于1990年至2019年的2.5%。国际货币基金组织估计，全球国内生产总值扣除通货膨胀后的真实增幅今年将降至4.4%，2021年也不过只有5.2%，而这其实也只意味着经济总规模到那时将和疫情爆发前相当。国际货币基金还预计，在世界主要经济体当中，只有中国今年还能够实现增长，但是幅度也不过只有1.9%，而美国经济将收缩4.3%，欧元区更是将收缩8.3%。</p>\n<p>8、美国股票价格昂贵。目前，标普500指数的周期调整市盈率已经超过了31，而历史长期平均水平还不到17，这就意味着回归均值就等于暴跌。</p>\n<p>9、太多投资者之所以购买股票，是因为其他资产的预期前景更差，但是他们却忽略了一个重要的可能性——一旦2021年经济陷于衰退，而且去通胀前景明晰起来，则三十年期国债收益率完全可能再降低1%，这便意味着至少20%的真实回报率，而与此同时，伴随股票市盈率回归正常，标普500指数却可能下跌30%到40%。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>曾准确预测08年金融危机的大佬：九大理由看空美股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n曾准确预测08年金融危机的大佬：九大理由看空美股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-11 10:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0YbjGf0GCEV8bs4ZZBhoTg><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>希林警告称，毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让美国经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望。\n\n\n在疫苗等一系列好消息的推送下，美股近期表现强势，一再创下新高，让投资者兴奋不已。然而，著名经济学家、曾准确预测08年金融危机的华尔街大佬希林（Gary Shilling）却警告说，当下的涨势很可能是速度过快，幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0YbjGf0GCEV8bs4ZZBhoTg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0YbjGf0GCEV8bs4ZZBhoTg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108720766","content_text":"希林警告称，毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让美国经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望。\n\n\n在疫苗等一系列好消息的推送下，美股近期表现强势，一再创下新高，让投资者兴奋不已。然而，著名经济学家、曾准确预测08年金融危机的华尔街大佬希林（Gary Shilling）却警告说，当下的涨势很可能是速度过快，幅度过大，整体而言过于狂热了。\n这位A. Gary Shilling & Co.创始人，在市场上摸爬滚打半个多世纪的老兵在他最新的Insight报告当中写道：“毋庸置疑，各种新疫苗已经让经济前景发生了戏剧性的变化，但是市场的狂热反应看上去还是大有过头的嫌疑。事实上，经济的疲软表现完全可能再持续一年的时间，让美股牛派大失所望，相反，国债持有者则会受益。”\n“整个市场完全是按照完美设定定价的。”希林指出，其实很多警报讯号已经很清晰了，比如芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX），2月中旬至今大约200个交易日，始终都高于20。报告援引道琼斯的数据指出，在过去，VIX连续至少100个交易日都高于20的情况总计出现过八次，而每一次到最后，标普500指数都下跌了。\n希林预言说，今年年内，衰退可能性就会重新变得现实起来，而且这样的情况还将在明年一直持续下去。当投资者再也无法忽视这种变故，他们对风险投资的胃口就会大幅度恶化。在下面，希林具体列出了九条让他无法对美国经济和股市前景感到乐观的理由。\n1、新冠病毒疫苗广泛接种，在发达国家恐怕也要等到2021年晚些时候才能实现，而在发展中国家还会更晚。与此同时，各国政府为防疫采取的限制措施，以及消费者害怕感染的恐惧都将持续影响全球经济。\n2、在美国和欧洲都推出目前计划的最新财政刺激方案的情况下，有效疫苗广泛接种，可以让全球经济在2022年增长5.5%，可是，如果疫苗推广速度较慢，则经济增速就可能低到2.2%。美国和欧元区的政策制定者目前都相信，哪怕在疫苗方面进展符合预期的情况下，他们的经济要真正恢复到疫情前的水平，至少也要到2022年。\n3、9月和10月间，美国消费支出增速只有0.5%，明显减缓，而可任意支配个人收入更是下滑0.8%。\n4、美国就业市场虽然在回暖，但是永久性失业数字在攀升。希林在报告当中提醒大家，10月新增之心人数增幅已经缩窄到了63.8万，而永久性失业数量却来到了370万。在他的报告发布后，劳工部的最新数据也发布了，显示11月新增支薪人数为24.5万，永久性失业数字依然保持370万。\n5、到今年年底，针对普通劳动者和自由职业者的各种失业救济补贴就将到期，同时到期的还有禁止房东因为拖欠房租而驱逐租客的禁令、禁止公用事业公司因为拖欠缴费而断供水电煤气的禁令等。如果国会拿不出新的措施，消费支出和经济就将遭遇更严峻的考验。\n6、新的宅家经济形态将持续影响许多行业和企业，而后者当中有不少都未必能够坚持到疫情结束，比如为数众多的餐厅、影剧院和零售店等。截至8月中旬，零售行业破产案已经达到29起，超过了2019年全年的22起，其中不乏Brooks Brothers、J. Crew、Lord & Taylor、杰西潘尼等知名品牌。航空旅行需求，尤其是很多商务航空旅行需求很可能将彻底消失，因为企业正在习惯用线上会议代替面对面开会。\n7、国会预算办公室估计，从2020年到2030年，美国国内生产总值年平均增长速度将只有1.8%，明显低于1990年至2019年的2.5%。国际货币基金组织估计，全球国内生产总值扣除通货膨胀后的真实增幅今年将降至4.4%，2021年也不过只有5.2%，而这其实也只意味着经济总规模到那时将和疫情爆发前相当。国际货币基金还预计，在世界主要经济体当中，只有中国今年还能够实现增长，但是幅度也不过只有1.9%，而美国经济将收缩4.3%，欧元区更是将收缩8.3%。\n8、美国股票价格昂贵。目前，标普500指数的周期调整市盈率已经超过了31，而历史长期平均水平还不到17，这就意味着回归均值就等于暴跌。\n9、太多投资者之所以购买股票，是因为其他资产的预期前景更差，但是他们却忽略了一个重要的可能性——一旦2021年经济陷于衰退，而且去通胀前景明晰起来，则三十年期国债收益率完全可能再降低1%，这便意味着至少20%的真实回报率，而与此同时，伴随股票市盈率回归正常，标普500指数却可能下跌30%到40%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":394920206,"gmtCreate":1607929718405,"gmtModify":1703850101583,"author":{"id":"3479283926611476","authorId":"3479283926611476","name":"jade8668","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479283926611476","authorIdStr":"3479283926611476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394920206","repostId":"395222531","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":395222531,"gmtCreate":1607677553923,"gmtModify":1703849434829,"author":{"id":"3540166583692073","authorId":"3540166583692073","name":"爱投学院","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8def4c9b37e078bb8f8421d71f6603d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540166583692073","authorIdStr":"3540166583692073"},"themes":[],"title":"买这3只高分红股票，超安全，稳收养老金！","htmlText":"\n \n \n  负利率和高通胀时代，钱存在银行里都会不断贬值！买这三只高股息的股票，靠分红都能赚回自己的养老金！快来跟着我们的首席收入投资专家——马克·利腾飞，一起了解一下是哪三只分红股吧？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EPD\">$Enterprise Products Partners L.P(EPD)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIC\">$法拉盛金融(FFIC)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABR\">$阿伯房地产信托(ABR)$</a>如果你正在寻找最新的投资机会，那么爱投学院是一个很好的资源。关注及订阅我们，以接收交易专家的投资提示和研究。无论你是初学者还是经验丰富的投资者，爱投学院都能为你提供帮助。喜欢我们的独立、独到的观点与分析，请三连：点赞、分享、订阅。留言让我们做得更好，期待与你的互动。你的关注和鼓励是我们的无限动力。爱投学院作为全球顶级财经出版集团Agora的中国子公司，希望在投资的路上一直陪伴你，助你成为更自信、更睿智、更成功的投资者，最终实现财富自由。爱投学院与老虎联合推出最畅销<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/space?userId=3540166583692073\" target=\"_blank\">北美投资课程</a>，北美专家手把手教你分析，授之以渔，把财富增值掌握在自己手中。无论美股、港股还是A股，这些经验和方法都非常适用。快来感受原汁原味的北美独立观点，和我们踏上财富自由的旅程。进入爱投学院空间站，即可学习。如有任何疑问请v联dss666888ss。利腾飞（Marc&nbsp;Lichtenfeld）是稳定可靠收入方面\n \n","listText":"负利率和高通胀时代，钱存在银行里都会不断贬值！买这三只高股息的股票，靠分红都能赚回自己的养老金！快来跟着我们的首席收入投资专家——马克·利腾飞，一起了解一下是哪三只分红股吧？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EPD\">$Enterprise 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