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娱乐心
10-11
$宁德时代(300750)$
未来可期
娱乐心
2022-09-01
这个就是巴菲特的厉害,减了,目的就是要有人接盘,毕竟体量那么大,前几年减持马上就空了,现在减一堆做多的,和李嘉诚减持地产一样,在你们以为他很傻的时候卖了。
抱歉,原内容已删除
娱乐心
2021-03-30
计划永远只是计划
美股异动 | 唯品会(VIPS.US)涨逾6%,公司宣布5亿美元股份回购计划
娱乐心
2021-01-06
这个和比特币一样是妖股
抱歉,原内容已删除
娱乐心
2018-06-16
$搜狗(SOGO)$换手率49.1%真是太牛了。
娱乐心
2018-03-24
$搜狗(SOGO)$仔细看搜狗真没有什么特别的地方,就是一个搜索,可是市场份额太少,其他没有什么特别的产品,天天说ai没的出色的产品,连起码得语音识别都比百度差不知道多少,很多次识别不出来 我拿百度都能识别,再用搜狗还是不行,模糊搜索比百度差,我又改用百度了。
娱乐心
2018-01-29
$搜狗(SOGO)$看来一个盈利的年报根本改变不了什么。
娱乐心
2018-01-25
$搜狗(SOGO)$发个贴,对于搜狗股票来说买空有500万股没有回补,现在等你们割肉,小散坚决不割不交易,你说他们怎么办。
娱乐心
2018-01-05
$红黄蓝(RYB)$这个股票感觉有点AI在操盘的感觉,太牛了,随机性十足,一点都搞不清楚它在玩什么。
娱乐心
2017-12-27
$聚美优品(JMEI)$为什么都是盘前涨,盘后没有起色
娱乐心
2017-12-23
$红黄蓝(RYB)$今天涨一点这么论坛这么安静。
娱乐心
2017-12-14
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 今天没有大主力有小主力,目前在尝试做空,不过主力小,比较慢,多头也不明显。预计还是要跌,很多想抄底观望,但是过于小心,空头机会比较大。
娱乐心
2017-12-13
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 个人觉得红黄蓝合理市值在今年500*800000+1300*300000=79000万79000W*15%利润率/6.65汇率=1700万美元1700W*30市盈率=5.1亿美元明年收益受今年影响夸张变慢增速算30%,但是利润肯定不止15%应该在25%,79000W*130%*25%/6.65汇率=3860万美元3860W*25考虑后期增长市盈率按低算=9.7亿美元9.7/5.1*17.7现在大概一股值=33.66美元这个我蛮算的.希望大家指正!给出意见
娱乐心
2017-12-08
$搜狗(SOGO)$ 这个发现大家都很谨慎。盘前基本没有交易。
娱乐心
2017-12-08
$搜狗(SOGO)$ 搜狗预计很难熬出头了,百度都和高通合作搞自然语音识别和交互了。
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我拿百度都能识别,再用搜狗还是不行,模糊搜索比百度差,我又改用百度了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170940","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3460244701156204","authorId":"3460244701156204","name":"比特侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7543a28daf41316419203798cce71a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3460244701156204","authorIdStr":"3460244701156204"},"content":"大兄弟,我感觉长涨不回去了,跟跌不跟涨的垃圾股啊","text":"大兄弟,我感觉长涨不回去了,跟跌不跟涨的垃圾股啊","html":"大兄弟,我感觉长涨不回去了,跟跌不跟涨的垃圾股啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":204653,"gmtCreate":1529104353313,"gmtModify":1704894990950,"author":{"id":"3473648622601986","authorId":"3473648622601986","name":"娱乐心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473648622601986","authorIdStr":"3473648622601986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$搜狗(SOGO)$换手率49.1%真是太牛了。","listText":"$搜狗(SOGO)$换手率49.1%真是太牛了。","text":"$搜狗(SOGO)$换手率49.1%真是太牛了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/204653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":132186,"gmtCreate":1513267083774,"gmtModify":1704885862854,"author":{"id":"3473648622601986","authorId":"3473648622601986","name":"娱乐心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473648622601986","authorIdStr":"3473648622601986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 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今天没有大主力有小主力,目前在尝试做空,不过主力小,比较慢,多头也不明显。预计还是要跌,很多想抄底观望,但是过于小心,空头机会比较大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151166,"gmtCreate":1516895865483,"gmtModify":1704888249201,"author":{"id":"3473648622601986","authorId":"3473648622601986","name":"娱乐心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473648622601986","authorIdStr":"3473648622601986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$搜狗(SOGO)$发个贴,对于搜狗股票来说买空有500万股没有回补,现在等你们割肉,小散坚决不割不交易,你说他们怎么办。","listText":"$搜狗(SOGO)$发个贴,对于搜狗股票来说买空有500万股没有回补,现在等你们割肉,小散坚决不割不交易,你说他们怎么办。","text":"$搜狗(SOGO)$发个贴,对于搜狗股票来说买空有500万股没有回补,现在等你们割肉,小散坚决不割不交易,你说他们怎么办。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151166","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669032806,"gmtCreate":1661963050007,"gmtModify":1661963745271,"author":{"id":"3473648622601986","authorId":"3473648622601986","name":"娱乐心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473648622601986","authorIdStr":"3473648622601986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个就是巴菲特的厉害,减了,目的就是要有人接盘,毕竟体量那么大,前几年减持马上就空了,现在减一堆做多的,和李嘉诚减持地产一样,在你们以为他很傻的时候卖了。","listText":"这个就是巴菲特的厉害,减了,目的就是要有人接盘,毕竟体量那么大,前几年减持马上就空了,现在减一堆做多的,和李嘉诚减持地产一样,在你们以为他很傻的时候卖了。","text":"这个就是巴菲特的厉害,减了,目的就是要有人接盘,毕竟体量那么大,前几年减持马上就空了,现在减一堆做多的,和李嘉诚减持地产一样,在你们以为他很傻的时候卖了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669032806","repostId":"1147514946","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147514946","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661951494,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147514946?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-31 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"被巴菲特减持,股价就会一蹶不振了吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147514946","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"要想证明自己清白最好的方法就是证明对手错误。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>巴菲特减持的那些股票,股价是否从此一蹶不振?</b></p><p>巴菲特开始减持比亚迪,不仅引起了资本市场激烈震荡和讨论,也引起了美国媒体的关注。但是看了一下,讨论的思考框架无外乎就是“不用过度解读,公司本身经营没有问题”这个大方向,卖方报告也多从比亚迪本身的业绩入手,认为公司长期看好。先多说一句,中西方文化在辩论的基础上存在巨大差异,中方的文化基础是“防守”,从自己的角度去证明一件事;而西方的文化基础是“进攻”(或者说“侵略”),要想证明自己清白最好的方法就是证明对手错误。</p><p>我今天就从西方的角度去讨论这个问题——都说巴菲特是股神,那么他减持的股票是不是股价都从此一蹶不振?</p><p>根据2013年以来Berkshire Hathaway的13F持仓显示,巴菲特前5大重仓一共有过10个股票,分别是WFC, KO, AXP, IBM, PG,WMT, KHC, AAPL, BAC, CVX。</p><p>1,WFC(富国银行)</p><p>巴菲特钟爱银行股,而富国银行曾经又是巴菲特银行股的最爱。只可惜这家公司因为一系列丑闻,特别是监管出现问题之后公司迟迟不能搞定监管而深陷困境,巴菲特最后无奈减持。<b>不过自从巴菲特减持后,股价却触底反弹。</b>下图绿色是巴菲特持仓,白色是股价。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7943224593c0f6be6d1a85ff8ec1daa2\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2,KO(可口可乐)</p><p>巴菲特和可口可乐的故事几乎人尽皆知,特别是巴菲特投资“糖”的理念更是被传得神乎其神。对于可口可乐的投资,巴菲特过去十几年时间,没有增加一股,也没有减持一股,一直保持40万股。但是巴菲特的资产规模是不断增大,可口可乐持仓的比重不断减小,所以可以看出他对可口可乐的感情其实是逐步降低的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c7ce8eca792ead7cc4a7a202f85c98\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3,AXP(美国运通)</p><p>巴菲特和美国运通的故事历史也很久远,网上也有很多讨论,但是<b>最近20多年巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓也没有变化</b>,和可口可乐一样,巴菲特对于运通的喜爱程度也是在递减。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe5b789c62f76777b210921c473a9ee\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"164\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>4,IBM</p><p>相较于巴菲特其它股票动辄超过10年的持仓,巴菲特在IBM上的持仓时间就短了很多,一共6年。<b>巴菲特在2017-2018年间几乎清空了IBM持仓,股价在巴菲特清仓之后几乎原地踏步。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed11d4ae42e46e4907885b73b5a5458\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"89\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>5,PG(宝洁)</p><p>巴菲特在宝洁上的持仓时间一共差不多10年,在这10年期间,宝洁的股票差不多涨了50%,从$50涨到了$75。<b>但是巴菲特减持股票之后,宝洁的股价开始快速上涨</b>,从2015年到2022年股价几乎翻了一倍,从$75涨到了$150。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dded9ca4235c13b44ff3792607dc58da\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>6,WMT(沃尔玛)</p><p>和宝洁的持仓一样,巴菲特在沃尔玛持仓的情况也很类似。<b>在巴菲特2016年减持结束之后,沃尔玛的股价也迅速上涨</b>,到去年最高点的时候股价也几乎翻了一倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cc3c43f56cacf81f4de14a5414940e\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>7,KHC(卡夫亨氏)</p><p>巴菲特在这家公司栽了一个大跟头,2019年股东大会的时候他坦诚犯了大错误。Berkshire Hathaway的季报,甚至还特意把KHC的持仓作为单独一项列了出来,和其它股票投资分开,不想这个股票的巨大损失影响外界对巴菲特投资的印象。巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓一直没有变化,没有割肉。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cc3c43f56cacf81f4de14a5414940e\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>8,AAPL(苹果)</p><p>在苹果上的投资,可以说是巴菲特近几年来最成功的投资,苹果是巴菲特目前仓位最大的股票,占其美股投资的41%,超过$1,200亿(根据最新13F),这可能也是巴菲特历史上仓位最大的股票。目前巴菲特在苹果的持仓上,只有非常小的减仓,这个减持可能只是因为股价走高为了控制仓位比例而做出的调整,不用刻意解读。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8bc7d79b8a975470ca041a4afa13b\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>9,BAC(美国银行)</p><p>巴菲特钟爱银行股,但是富国银行的投资并没有给他很好的体验,自从巴菲特开始减持富国银行之后,他就在美国银行上开始建仓,美国银行成了他的新宠。但是美国银行自从巴菲特2017建仓后,股价基本在$30多原地踏步,回报率远远小于标普500。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bbebf8f3b26b674c631b055843eefc4\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>10,CVX(雪佛龙)</p><p>除了投资苹果,巴菲特最近另一个比较成功的投资就是化石能源概念,CVX是其中的代表。但是投资化石能源本身和巴菲特的理念是不合的,因为(1)巴菲特是左派,虽然是一个保守型左派;(2)化石能源从长期来看肯定会被新能源取代,不符合价值投资理念。这就是为何巴菲特对于化石能源概念的建仓都是最近两年的事情,其风格更像是交易型而非价值型投资。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6fb4813b61c3d3f7f66018dbf76a13\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"173\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>总结一下,在过去10年巴菲特的前5大重仓股来看(一共10个股票),巴菲特的减持对于未来股价并没有指示意义。其中,富国银行、沃尔玛和宝洁在巴菲特减持之后,股价都快速上涨;IBM在巴菲特减持之后,股价原地踏步。从统计的角度来看,巴菲特减持对于公司的股价具有更多的积极意义。</p><p>这个角度是不是比直接去证明比亚迪业绩没问题要好很多?</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>被巴菲特减持,股价就会一蹶不振了吗?</title>\n<style 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21:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>巴菲特减持的那些股票,股价是否从此一蹶不振?</b></p><p>巴菲特开始减持比亚迪,不仅引起了资本市场激烈震荡和讨论,也引起了美国媒体的关注。但是看了一下,讨论的思考框架无外乎就是“不用过度解读,公司本身经营没有问题”这个大方向,卖方报告也多从比亚迪本身的业绩入手,认为公司长期看好。先多说一句,中西方文化在辩论的基础上存在巨大差异,中方的文化基础是“防守”,从自己的角度去证明一件事;而西方的文化基础是“进攻”(或者说“侵略”),要想证明自己清白最好的方法就是证明对手错误。</p><p>我今天就从西方的角度去讨论这个问题——都说巴菲特是股神,那么他减持的股票是不是股价都从此一蹶不振?</p><p>根据2013年以来Berkshire Hathaway的13F持仓显示,巴菲特前5大重仓一共有过10个股票,分别是WFC, KO, AXP, IBM, PG,WMT, KHC, AAPL, BAC, CVX。</p><p>1,WFC(富国银行)</p><p>巴菲特钟爱银行股,而富国银行曾经又是巴菲特银行股的最爱。只可惜这家公司因为一系列丑闻,特别是监管出现问题之后公司迟迟不能搞定监管而深陷困境,巴菲特最后无奈减持。<b>不过自从巴菲特减持后,股价却触底反弹。</b>下图绿色是巴菲特持仓,白色是股价。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7943224593c0f6be6d1a85ff8ec1daa2\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2,KO(可口可乐)</p><p>巴菲特和可口可乐的故事几乎人尽皆知,特别是巴菲特投资“糖”的理念更是被传得神乎其神。对于可口可乐的投资,巴菲特过去十几年时间,没有增加一股,也没有减持一股,一直保持40万股。但是巴菲特的资产规模是不断增大,可口可乐持仓的比重不断减小,所以可以看出他对可口可乐的感情其实是逐步降低的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c7ce8eca792ead7cc4a7a202f85c98\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3,AXP(美国运通)</p><p>巴菲特和美国运通的故事历史也很久远,网上也有很多讨论,但是<b>最近20多年巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓也没有变化</b>,和可口可乐一样,巴菲特对于运通的喜爱程度也是在递减。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe5b789c62f76777b210921c473a9ee\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"164\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>4,IBM</p><p>相较于巴菲特其它股票动辄超过10年的持仓,巴菲特在IBM上的持仓时间就短了很多,一共6年。<b>巴菲特在2017-2018年间几乎清空了IBM持仓,股价在巴菲特清仓之后几乎原地踏步。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed11d4ae42e46e4907885b73b5a5458\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"89\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>5,PG(宝洁)</p><p>巴菲特在宝洁上的持仓时间一共差不多10年,在这10年期间,宝洁的股票差不多涨了50%,从$50涨到了$75。<b>但是巴菲特减持股票之后,宝洁的股价开始快速上涨</b>,从2015年到2022年股价几乎翻了一倍,从$75涨到了$150。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dded9ca4235c13b44ff3792607dc58da\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>6,WMT(沃尔玛)</p><p>和宝洁的持仓一样,巴菲特在沃尔玛持仓的情况也很类似。<b>在巴菲特2016年减持结束之后,沃尔玛的股价也迅速上涨</b>,到去年最高点的时候股价也几乎翻了一倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cc3c43f56cacf81f4de14a5414940e\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>7,KHC(卡夫亨氏)</p><p>巴菲特在这家公司栽了一个大跟头,2019年股东大会的时候他坦诚犯了大错误。Berkshire Hathaway的季报,甚至还特意把KHC的持仓作为单独一项列了出来,和其它股票投资分开,不想这个股票的巨大损失影响外界对巴菲特投资的印象。巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓一直没有变化,没有割肉。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cc3c43f56cacf81f4de14a5414940e\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>8,AAPL(苹果)</p><p>在苹果上的投资,可以说是巴菲特近几年来最成功的投资,苹果是巴菲特目前仓位最大的股票,占其美股投资的41%,超过$1,200亿(根据最新13F),这可能也是巴菲特历史上仓位最大的股票。目前巴菲特在苹果的持仓上,只有非常小的减仓,这个减持可能只是因为股价走高为了控制仓位比例而做出的调整,不用刻意解读。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8bc7d79b8a975470ca041a4afa13b\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>9,BAC(美国银行)</p><p>巴菲特钟爱银行股,但是富国银行的投资并没有给他很好的体验,自从巴菲特开始减持富国银行之后,他就在美国银行上开始建仓,美国银行成了他的新宠。但是美国银行自从巴菲特2017建仓后,股价基本在$30多原地踏步,回报率远远小于标普500。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bbebf8f3b26b674c631b055843eefc4\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>10,CVX(雪佛龙)</p><p>除了投资苹果,巴菲特最近另一个比较成功的投资就是化石能源概念,CVX是其中的代表。但是投资化石能源本身和巴菲特的理念是不合的,因为(1)巴菲特是左派,虽然是一个保守型左派;(2)化石能源从长期来看肯定会被新能源取代,不符合价值投资理念。这就是为何巴菲特对于化石能源概念的建仓都是最近两年的事情,其风格更像是交易型而非价值型投资。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6fb4813b61c3d3f7f66018dbf76a13\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"173\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>总结一下,在过去10年巴菲特的前5大重仓股来看(一共10个股票),巴菲特的减持对于未来股价并没有指示意义。其中,富国银行、沃尔玛和宝洁在巴菲特减持之后,股价都快速上涨;IBM在巴菲特减持之后,股价原地踏步。从统计的角度来看,巴菲特减持对于公司的股价具有更多的积极意义。</p><p>这个角度是不是比直接去证明比亚迪业绩没问题要好很多?</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d533169ff6dcc15cc9be15082371e7","relate_stocks":{"PG":"宝洁","AXP":"美国运通","002594":"比亚迪","00285":"比亚迪电子","WFC":"富国银行","KO":"可口可乐","AAPL":"苹果","WMT":"沃尔玛","01211":"比亚迪股份","IBM":"IBM","BAC":"美国银行","CVX":"雪佛龙","KHC":"卡夫亨氏"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147514946","content_text":"巴菲特减持的那些股票,股价是否从此一蹶不振?巴菲特开始减持比亚迪,不仅引起了资本市场激烈震荡和讨论,也引起了美国媒体的关注。但是看了一下,讨论的思考框架无外乎就是“不用过度解读,公司本身经营没有问题”这个大方向,卖方报告也多从比亚迪本身的业绩入手,认为公司长期看好。先多说一句,中西方文化在辩论的基础上存在巨大差异,中方的文化基础是“防守”,从自己的角度去证明一件事;而西方的文化基础是“进攻”(或者说“侵略”),要想证明自己清白最好的方法就是证明对手错误。我今天就从西方的角度去讨论这个问题——都说巴菲特是股神,那么他减持的股票是不是股价都从此一蹶不振?根据2013年以来Berkshire Hathaway的13F持仓显示,巴菲特前5大重仓一共有过10个股票,分别是WFC, KO, AXP, IBM, PG,WMT, KHC, AAPL, BAC, CVX。1,WFC(富国银行)巴菲特钟爱银行股,而富国银行曾经又是巴菲特银行股的最爱。只可惜这家公司因为一系列丑闻,特别是监管出现问题之后公司迟迟不能搞定监管而深陷困境,巴菲特最后无奈减持。不过自从巴菲特减持后,股价却触底反弹。下图绿色是巴菲特持仓,白色是股价。2,KO(可口可乐)巴菲特和可口可乐的故事几乎人尽皆知,特别是巴菲特投资“糖”的理念更是被传得神乎其神。对于可口可乐的投资,巴菲特过去十几年时间,没有增加一股,也没有减持一股,一直保持40万股。但是巴菲特的资产规模是不断增大,可口可乐持仓的比重不断减小,所以可以看出他对可口可乐的感情其实是逐步降低的。3,AXP(美国运通)巴菲特和美国运通的故事历史也很久远,网上也有很多讨论,但是最近20多年巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓也没有变化,和可口可乐一样,巴菲特对于运通的喜爱程度也是在递减。4,IBM相较于巴菲特其它股票动辄超过10年的持仓,巴菲特在IBM上的持仓时间就短了很多,一共6年。巴菲特在2017-2018年间几乎清空了IBM持仓,股价在巴菲特清仓之后几乎原地踏步。5,PG(宝洁)巴菲特在宝洁上的持仓时间一共差不多10年,在这10年期间,宝洁的股票差不多涨了50%,从$50涨到了$75。但是巴菲特减持股票之后,宝洁的股价开始快速上涨,从2015年到2022年股价几乎翻了一倍,从$75涨到了$150。6,WMT(沃尔玛)和宝洁的持仓一样,巴菲特在沃尔玛持仓的情况也很类似。在巴菲特2016年减持结束之后,沃尔玛的股价也迅速上涨,到去年最高点的时候股价也几乎翻了一倍。7,KHC(卡夫亨氏)巴菲特在这家公司栽了一个大跟头,2019年股东大会的时候他坦诚犯了大错误。Berkshire Hathaway的季报,甚至还特意把KHC的持仓作为单独一项列了出来,和其它股票投资分开,不想这个股票的巨大损失影响外界对巴菲特投资的印象。巴菲特在这个股票上的持仓一直没有变化,没有割肉。8,AAPL(苹果)在苹果上的投资,可以说是巴菲特近几年来最成功的投资,苹果是巴菲特目前仓位最大的股票,占其美股投资的41%,超过$1,200亿(根据最新13F),这可能也是巴菲特历史上仓位最大的股票。目前巴菲特在苹果的持仓上,只有非常小的减仓,这个减持可能只是因为股价走高为了控制仓位比例而做出的调整,不用刻意解读。9,BAC(美国银行)巴菲特钟爱银行股,但是富国银行的投资并没有给他很好的体验,自从巴菲特开始减持富国银行之后,他就在美国银行上开始建仓,美国银行成了他的新宠。但是美国银行自从巴菲特2017建仓后,股价基本在$30多原地踏步,回报率远远小于标普500。10,CVX(雪佛龙)除了投资苹果,巴菲特最近另一个比较成功的投资就是化石能源概念,CVX是其中的代表。但是投资化石能源本身和巴菲特的理念是不合的,因为(1)巴菲特是左派,虽然是一个保守型左派;(2)化石能源从长期来看肯定会被新能源取代,不符合价值投资理念。这就是为何巴菲特对于化石能源概念的建仓都是最近两年的事情,其风格更像是交易型而非价值型投资。总结一下,在过去10年巴菲特的前5大重仓股来看(一共10个股票),巴菲特的减持对于未来股价并没有指示意义。其中,富国银行、沃尔玛和宝洁在巴菲特减持之后,股价都快速上涨;IBM在巴菲特减持之后,股价原地踏步。从统计的角度来看,巴菲特减持对于公司的股价具有更多的积极意义。这个角度是不是比直接去证明比亚迪业绩没问题要好很多?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358891734720680,"gmtCreate":1728627968525,"gmtModify":1728627969887,"author":{"id":"3473648622601986","authorId":"3473648622601986","name":"娱乐心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473648622601986","authorIdStr":"3473648622601986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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