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2023-11-12

意思就是造假算什么必要时不择手段

鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济

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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-08 23:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1197884679","content_text":"周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出模型去进行思考。美联储研究和统计部门每年向联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）提供八次经济预测，以及对当前数据、政策和经济主题研究的最新更新。该部门目前由Stacey Tevlin领导，她是该部门的首位女性领导人，该部门聘用了数十名博士。新冠疫情后，美联储对经济的预测工作面临挑战：美联储工作人员在2021年的大部分时间里都坚称通胀的飙升是“暂时的”，之后通胀在2022年持续加速，并于当年6月达到CPI同比暴涨9.1%的峰值。今年3月美国发生了一系列银行倒闭后，美联储的工作人员们预测今年晚些时候美国将出现“温和衰退”，但几个月后放弃了这一预测。美国第二季度经济增长2.1%，与其长期趋势增长率相当，第三季度经济则以4.9%的增长率攀升，令美联储始料未及。鲍威尔表示，美联储的预测者们在最大的舞台上以最高的风险做这项工作，因为他们知道经济经常让我们感到惊讶，这项工作需要巨大的勇气和谦逊。鲍威尔周三的讲话并没有置评FOMC货币政策前景或美国经济前景。在11月初美联储会议后的发布会上，鲍威尔表示，美联储接近结束加息，正谨慎行事，考虑是否必须再加息，货币政策有限制性，但不确信限制已足够，未考虑降息。即使12月继续不加息，也不一定代表加息周期结束。美联储工作人员未将衰退重新纳入经济预测，降通胀可能需要经济进一步放缓。本周美联储多位高级官员密集讲话，其中两位高官美联储理事鲍曼和明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari均发表了鹰派讲话，提到未来美联储依然可能加息。官员们普遍表示美国通胀仍然过高，抗击通胀是首要任务。多人提及，债市收益率上升导致金融环境收紧。美联储的官员们下次会议将于12月12日至13日举行。在此次会议前，美联储将看到有关零售销售、就业和通胀的最新报告。期货市场定价美联储几乎没有在12月加息的可能性，并预计美联储目前的基准利率水平5.25%-5.5%，是本轮紧缩周期的顶峰。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":240677558804632,"gmtCreate":1699777771155,"gmtModify":1699779382075,"author":{"id":"3470902837477446","authorId":"3470902837477446","name":"Gen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506432eb6796d99ed3959a819731b5d2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470902837477446","authorIdStr":"3470902837477446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;意思就是 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