呵呵634的个人主页 - 老虎社区

呵呵634

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IP属地：浙江

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2023-11-28

$乐信(LX)$ 什么时候派息啊

2022-12-22

$人人网(RENN)$ 30块空单拿到1.8。为什么不显示盈利呢？

2022-03-04

$人人网(RENN)$出货了

2021-12-10

$人人网(RENN)$老板都潜逃海外很多年了。。。空壳公司。。。为什么还有人买这个股票。。。连瑞幸咖啡赶不上，还不赶紧跑

2020-05-18

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 像极了之前瑞幸拉盘的样子

2020-05-06

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 陈总是河南人的榜样

2020-05-02

笑死了

香橼第二次做空失败跟谁学股价不跌反涨

2020-04-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 明天早上工商上门服务，同瑞幸

2020-04-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 明天工商上门服务，同瑞幸

2020-04-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 明天工商局上门服务，自己看着办吧

2020-04-24

$51信用卡(02051)$ 公司高管把公司钱都搞没了，反正股票也不值钱，财富转移自己腰包

2020-04-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 你们凭什么看不起河南人，河南人就不能出个企业家吗

2020-04-02

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 陈老师是世界上最牛逼的老师，哈哈哈

2020-03-12

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 看到这么多韭菜在问二逼问题，我也就放心做空了

2020-02-26

放屁，跟谁学才是王道

2020中概股最大疑团：跟谁学百亿美金之谜

2020-02-05

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ $跟谁学(GSX)$ 拉高出货就服你盘前拉高，慢慢出货，完美

2020-02-05

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 拉高出货就服你盘前拉高，慢慢出货，完美

2020-01-23

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 咖啡里面有没有病毒

2019-08-22

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 庄家出货太漂亮了

2019-08-22

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 500倍市盈率，比谷歌高十倍，真是大牛股啊做多的真是有钱，还不赶紧跑

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30块空单拿到1.8。为什么不显示盈利呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621033203","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464209514184414","authorId":"3464209514184414","name":"翻车老司机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e73abc2998aa19e38a352a63123ea28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464209514184414","authorIdStr":"3464209514184414"},"content":"我的put期权全都作废了 这个钱该找谁去讨回来","text":"我的put期权全都作废了 这个钱该找谁去讨回来","html":"我的put期权全都作废了 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01:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"香橼第二次做空失败 跟谁学股价不跌反涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2032326919","media":"新浪证券","summary":"美东时间4月30日盘中，做空机构香橼再次发布报告，做空在线教育机构跟谁学（GSX.US），不过报告发布后，跟谁学股价短暂波动后迅速回稳，后又再次上涨。截止到收盘时，跟谁学股价报收39.56美元/股，单","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　美东时间4月30日盘中，做空机构香橼再次发布报告，做空在线教育机构<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>（GSX.US），不过报告发布后，跟谁学股价短暂波动后迅速回稳，后又再次上涨。截止到收盘时，跟谁学股价报收39.56美元/股，单日上涨1.51%。香橼第二次的做空报告显然再次落空。</p>\n<p>　　整个报告里面并没有提出比较强有力的证据，仅有一份没有可信来源的录音文字，同时报告最后提到，这是香橼最后一份对跟谁学的做空报告，综合第一次报告来看，香橼并没有实质的证据来证明自己的结论。</p>\n<p>　　对此，跟谁学方面回应：该份报告充满了不实的指控，我们对此表示谴责，报告仅提供了一份无据可查的录音文字，没有提供任何真实有效的证据，试图混淆视听。本公司与其他公司无任何关联关系，本公司与所有关联方的交易已完整披露于年报中。</p>\n<p>　　香橼报告中提到的两个问题，其实在之前跟谁学的对外回应中都曾经提到过，没有新内容且不是实质证据的内容显然并不具有太强的说服力。</p>\n<p>　　值得一提的是，在此之前，跟谁学公告5月6日盘前将发布2020财年Q1财报的消息后，跟谁学股价已经连续三日上涨，其中27号和28号更是分别大涨11.56%和7.65%。这表明了市场对跟谁学的信心。</p>\n<p>　　目前，跟谁学是中国唯一一家实现规模化盈利，且是目前全球市值最高的在线教育机构，能够连续应对做空，也彰显了公司的实力。因此，跟谁学即将发布的2020财年Q1财报格外引人期待。</p>\n<p>责任编辑：王帅 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n香橼第二次做空失败 跟谁学股价不跌反涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-02 01:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-05-02/doc-iircuyvi0921752.shtml><strong>新浪证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美东时间4月30日盘中，做空机构香橼再次发布报告，做空在线教育机构跟谁学（GSX.US），不过报告发布后，跟谁学股价短暂波动后迅速回稳，后又再次上涨。截止到收盘时，跟谁学股价报收39.56美元/股，单日上涨1.51%。香橼第二次的做空报告显然再次落空。\n　　整个报告里面并没有提出比较强有力的证据，仅有一份没有可信来源的录音文字，同时报告最后提到，这是香橼最后一份对跟谁学的做空报告，综合第一次报告...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-05-02/doc-iircuyvi0921752.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cce8afd9c6d0c800f1364edda0141","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-05-02/doc-iircuyvi0921752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2032326919","content_text":"美东时间4月30日盘中，做空机构香橼再次发布报告，做空在线教育机构跟谁学（GSX.US），不过报告发布后，跟谁学股价短暂波动后迅速回稳，后又再次上涨。截止到收盘时，跟谁学股价报收39.56美元/股，单日上涨1.51%。香橼第二次的做空报告显然再次落空。\n　　整个报告里面并没有提出比较强有力的证据，仅有一份没有可信来源的录音文字，同时报告最后提到，这是香橼最后一份对跟谁学的做空报告，综合第一次报告来看，香橼并没有实质的证据来证明自己的结论。\n　　对此，跟谁学方面回应：该份报告充满了不实的指控，我们对此表示谴责，报告仅提供了一份无据可查的录音文字，没有提供任何真实有效的证据，试图混淆视听。本公司与其他公司无任何关联关系，本公司与所有关联方的交易已完整披露于年报中。\n　　香橼报告中提到的两个问题，其实在之前跟谁学的对外回应中都曾经提到过，没有新内容且不是实质证据的内容显然并不具有太强的说服力。\n　　值得一提的是，在此之前，跟谁学公告5月6日盘前将发布2020财年Q1财报的消息后，跟谁学股价已经连续三日上涨，其中27号和28号更是分别大涨11.56%和7.65%。这表明了市场对跟谁学的信心。\n　　目前，跟谁学是中国唯一一家实现规模化盈利，且是目前全球市值最高的在线教育机构，能够连续应对做空，也彰显了公司的实力。因此，跟谁学即将发布的2020财年Q1财报格外引人期待。\n责任编辑：王帅","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925556359,"gmtCreate":1588081636471,"gmtModify":1704366339466,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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明天工商上门服务，同瑞幸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925527942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925522746,"gmtCreate":1588080415285,"gmtModify":1704366327780,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;明天工商局上门服务，自己看着办吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;明天工商局上门服务，自己看着办吧","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 明天工商局上门服务，自己看着办吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925522746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925911268,"gmtCreate":1587736439054,"gmtModify":1704365450985,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02051\">$51信用卡(02051)$</a>&nbsp;公司高管把公司钱都搞没了，反正股票也不值钱，财富转移自己腰包","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02051\">$51信用卡(02051)$</a>&nbsp;公司高管把公司钱都搞没了，反正股票也不值钱，财富转移自己腰包","text":"$51信用卡(02051)$ 公司高管把公司钱都搞没了，反正股票也不值钱，财富转移自己腰包","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925911268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928974669,"gmtCreate":1586444998951,"gmtModify":1704361464696,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;你们凭什么看不起河南人，河南人就不能出个企业家吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;你们凭什么看不起河南人，河南人就不能出个企业家吗","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 你们凭什么看不起河南人，河南人就不能出个企业家吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928974669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":923615536,"gmtCreate":1585835135225,"gmtModify":1704359237499,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;陈老师是世界上最牛逼的老师，哈哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;陈老师是世界上最牛逼的老师，哈哈哈","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 陈老师是世界上最牛逼的老师，哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923615536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965584355,"gmtCreate":1584023048277,"gmtModify":1704352633205,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;看到这么多韭菜在问二逼问题，我也就放心做空了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>&nbsp;看到这么多韭菜在问二逼问题，我也就放心做空了","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 看到这么多韭菜在问二逼问题，我也就放心做空了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965584355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989362468,"gmtCreate":1582726221754,"gmtModify":1704347449838,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"放屁，跟谁学才是王道","listText":"放屁，跟谁学才是王道","text":"放屁，跟谁学才是王道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989362468","repostId":"2014489913","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2014489913","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1582710240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2014489913?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-26 17:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2020中概股最大疑团：跟谁学百亿美金之谜","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2014489913","media":"杜东","summary":"收入规模接近行业头部水平，盈利能力远超同行，它是如何做到的？","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>当新生事物冠绝全球时，最稳妥的是把裁判交给时间，“阳光是最好的消毒剂，灯光是最好的警察”。</p>\n<p>在这块神奇的土地上，每年都会给投资人带来一些“意外之喜”。</p>\n<p>如果说去年的“意外之喜”，属于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>(NASDAQ:PDD)；那么，今年的“意外之喜”恐怕非<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>（NYSE:GSX）莫属了。</p>\n<p>2019年第四季度，跟谁学营收为9.35亿元，甚至接近学而思网校(NYSE:TAL)的10.87亿元。跟谁学四季度的收入环比增速67.86%，远远高于学而思网校3.5%的环比增速，按照这个速度，或许我们将在明年看到跟谁学收入超过学而思网校。</p>\n<p>更让人惊讶的是，在遍地亏损的K12在线教育公司领域，跟谁学竟然率先实现盈利。2018年三季度起，跟谁学已经实现规模化的季度盈利；2019年，净利润更是爆棚达到2.26亿元。</p>\n<p>要知道，跟谁学在2017年8月才真正切入在线教育业务。<strong>换句话说，短短两年时间，跟谁学的收入规模已经接近行业头部水平，盈利能力更是远超同行。</strong>截至目前，跟谁学的市值已经高达105亿美元，接近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>市值的三分之一。</p>\n<p>有意思的是，即使是行业里的人，也罕有人能说出跟谁学究竟是如何做到这个成绩？于是，百亿美金的跟谁学，成了2020年中概股中最大的谜团。</p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>/ 01 /</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><strong>收入规模和流量数据背离 </strong></p>\n<p>从收入体量上来看，跟谁学是毫无疑问的头部品牌。但跟谁学的流量数据，与其规模并不匹配。换言之，跟谁学高速增长的线上收入和其过于低调的流量数据出现了背离。</p>\n<p>由于在线教育是通过互联网进行，网络流量是衡量有多少学生实际访问跟谁学平台的很好指标。</p>\n<p>昨日晚间，做空机构GrizzlyResearch发布一份做空报告。<strong>做空机构GrizzlyResearch参考了多种资源，包括Alexa、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>指数、微信指数、app下载量以及活跃度等多项指标，对跟谁学进行了全面的剖析。</strong></p>\n<p>先说Alexa，这是一个被广泛使用的平台，根据流量趋势对网站进行排名。排名越高(数字越少)的网站通常在流量方面表现得越好，而排名越低(数字越多)的网站通常就会落后。<strong>事实上，与在线教育竞争对手相比，跟谁学在过去几年的趋势非常糟糕。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709566935.png\"/></p>\n<p>Alexa显示，自2018年以来，与主要上市竞争对手相比，<strong>跟谁学和旗下另一品牌高途课堂的排名都是最低的。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709577381.png\"/></p>\n<p>百度指数通过搜索分数反映了关键词的受欢迎程度。分数越高，受欢迎程度越高。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709588933.png\"/></p>\n<p>正如上图我们所看到的，自2017年以来，跟谁学和高途课堂的趋势并不好。事实上，它们是最低的。由于冠状病毒带来的在线教育热潮，今年年初各大在线教育企业热度普遍增长。跟谁学也表示，这波热潮带来的新增用户在1500万左右，但实际上并没有反应在指数上。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709797513.png\"/></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVQImWNgYGBgAAAABQABh6FO1AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p>\n<p>与其他一些非上市在线教育公司相比，跟谁学的搜索指数也并不突出。如下图所示，<strong>在过去的4年里，无论是跟谁学还是高途，都没有超过大多数的民办网络教育平台。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709817844.png\"/></p>\n<p><strong>如下图所示，在这波疫情中，跟谁学的百度指数表现也远不如作业帮和猿辅导。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709833607.png\"/></p>\n<p>微信指数类似于百度指数，由于越来越多的人依赖移动应用和微信来进行搜索，微信指数同样是一个值得观察的指数。</p>\n<p>该指数只显示过去90天的搜索趋势。如下图所示，我们可以清楚的看到，跟谁学和高途教育，黄色和淡蓝色的线几乎一直在图表的底部，这表明相对较低的知名度。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709846536.png\"/></p>\n<p>这同样是令人不解的。因为跟谁学一直表示，能够实现这样低成本的指数增长，是由于他们战略重点是微信裂变式营销。<strong>但实际上，通过微信指数来看，跟数学和高途教育加起来，既不如学而思网校，也不如猿辅导。</strong></p>\n<p>Rank2traffic.com可以查询包括历史流量、Alexa排名等。为了确保所有可能与之相关的流量数据，我们可以看一下所有有意义的公司网站和域名(那些没有足够数据的被排除在外)。以下是结果。</p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709644605.png\"/></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709654329.png\"/></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709664528.png\"/></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709894299.png\"/></p>\n<p>当然，在线教育可能许多人最终使用移动应用程序，而不是网站来实际参与课程。我们可以来看一下app的数据。</p>\n<p>我们可以参考学而思网校和“跟谁学”、“高途课堂”在各大应用市场市场的下载量情况。<strong>如下图所示，虽然收入规模与学而思网校接近，但从下载量来看，差距明显。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709913130.png\"/></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVQImWNgYGBgAAAABQABh6FO1AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p>\n<p>数据来源，各大应用市场（单位，万）</p>\n<p>另外，我们也可以参考QuestMobile的数据。日前，QuestMobile发表了一份报告，列举了疫情前后活跃度最高的几款在线教育app活跃度情况。</p>\n<p>如下图所示，我们可以看到的是，<strong>跟谁学的手机应用“跟谁学”和“高途课堂”都不在DAU手机应用前五名之列。</strong></p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" src=\"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/1582709928959.png\"/></p>\n<p>当然，很多人把跟谁学的优秀表现，简单归结于对微信生态的高效运营，比如建立海量的跟谁学裂变微信群。进而推导出，跟谁学的逻辑，更像是拼多多。</p>\n<p>但跟谁学真的有机会成为下一个“拼多多”吗？</p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>/ 02 /</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><strong>在线教育出不了“拼多多”</strong></p>\n<p>从获客成本看，跟谁学的数据确实远低于同行业。</p>\n<p>2019年，跟谁学的全年加权平均获客成本为470元，第四季度每正价课人次的获客成本更是只有400元，远低于学而思网校的获客成本。媒体报道，2019年暑假投放大战中，学而思网校的获客成本大概在700元左右。</p>\n<p>但值得注意的是，这里的“获客费用”是指，一定时间内所有付费用户的获客成本，而非单指新用户的获客成本。比如，2019年第四季度，跟谁学新增正价课付费用户110万，其中包括续费的用户。</p>\n<p>在这个口径下，影响获客成本数据的有两个因素：续报率和新客获客成本。</p>\n<p>先说续报率，按照公司的说法，<strong>获客成本低是因为续班率足够高。</strong>续班率取决于教学效果。</p>\n<p>K12的在线双师大班不是一个新的模式，最早起于2017年，到2018年已经如火如荼，学而思等头部公司也都有布局。在这种情况下，教学效果也不会拉开质的差别。</p>\n<p><strong>根据读懂君了解，在各大在线教育头部公司都处于亏损情况下，续费率不会相差太多。</strong></p>\n<p>从这个角度看，低成本的社群运营，或许才是跟谁学获客成本低的根本原因。</p>\n<p>这是一个很有意思的问题，众所周知，基于对微信生态，过去几年电商领域又诞生了一家市值百亿美金公司。那么，在在线教育领域，如何理解社群裂变对一家公司的影响，进而是否有可能诞生新的巨头？</p>\n<p>要想回答这个问题，我们必须弄清楚，拼多多成功的本质是什么。固然微信生态对早期拼多多崛起有至关重要的作用，但这并不是核心原因。</p>\n<p>核心原因是，在中国963万平方公里上，不同地域的人存在巨大差异，单单在购物一件事情上，他们的购物习惯、购物心理、商品偏好都存在巨大的差异。而拼多多正是通过不同的产品设计和运营策略很好满足了这种差异化的需求，最终成功。</p>\n<p><strong>由于差异化需求的长期存在，拼多多颠覆不了阿里，阿里也杀不死拼多多。</strong><strong>但这个逻辑在教育行业，根本站不住脚。</strong></p>\n<p>尽管各地的教材可能略有差异，不同地域的人们对教育的需求并没有太大的差异。从这个角度来说，在线教育领域出不了“拼多多”。</p>\n<p>无论是传统线下教育，还是线上教育，最终比拼的都是教学效果。除非一个模式能在教学效果上拉开明显差异，否则任何公司都逃不了激烈的竞争。正如上文所说，跟谁学的大班模式并不新颖，更别说与同行在教学效果上拉开差距。</p>\n<p>换言之，即使有短期内的微信流量红利，跟谁学很难成为下一个“拼多多”。</p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>/ 03 /</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><strong>跟谁学未“上岸”</strong></p>\n<p>尽管当下跟谁学的表现，或许已经足够优秀。但读懂君相信，任何商业模式和运营策略的创新，都逃不了生意本质的发展规律。跟谁学也不会例外。</p>\n<p>任何互联网+的产业，考验的都是供应链能力，而不是前端营销能力。于教育行业，同样如此。</p>\n<p>这也是大班模式的问题所在，尽管其财务模型是最优的，但由供给侧过于成熟和简单，越容易同质化竞争。同质化竞争导致了最终比拼的是规模效应，都希望在烧到对方弹尽粮绝的时候拿走垄断后的利润。</p>\n<p>换句话说，即使双师大班领域最后能跑出个一二三名，各家最多也只是在各个环节优化上有差异，并不是质的差别。</p>\n<p>但教育行业的供应链能力，并非简单的资源链接。从过去来看，教育行业建立优质供应链的时间壁垒极高。</p>\n<p>而中国教培市场二十年多年发展了二十多年，也只跑出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(NYSE:EDU)和好未来两家公司。从过程来看，这两家公司都在供给侧建立了自己的优势：</p>\n<p>新东方建立了一整套教师的培训和激励体系，使得优质老师源源不断涌现。好未来则通过其极强的教材研发能力，极大降低了教师能力的门槛。</p>\n<p>在这方面，我们并不能不看到跟谁学在供应链类似的表现。从这个角度来说，尽管跟谁学涨势凶猛，但仍然与新东方和好未来差距甚远，还有很长的路要走。</p>\n<p>也许直到有一天，投资人不再讨论跟谁学的运营模式，而更多说的是教学效果时，跟谁学才算是真正“上岸”。</p> </div></body></html>","source":"dudong_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2020中概股最大疑团：跟谁学百亿美金之谜</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2020中概股最大疑团：跟谁学百亿美金之谜\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-26 17:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.dudong.com/post/202002/240613.html><strong>杜东</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当新生事物冠绝全球时，最稳妥的是把裁判交给时间，“阳光是最好的消毒剂，灯光是最好的警察”。\n在这块神奇的土地上，每年都会给投资人带来一些“意外之喜”。\n如果说去年的“意外之喜”，属于拼多多(NASDAQ:PDD)；那么，今年的“意外之喜”恐怕非跟谁学（NYSE:GSX）莫属了。\n2019年第四季度，跟谁学营收为9.35亿元，甚至接近学而思网校(NYSE:TAL)的10.87亿元。跟谁学四季度的收入...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.dudong.com/post/202002/240613.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://upload.dudong.com/2020/0226/thumb_185_140_1582710266912.jpg","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.dudong.com/post/202002/240613.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2014489913","content_text":"当新生事物冠绝全球时，最稳妥的是把裁判交给时间，“阳光是最好的消毒剂，灯光是最好的警察”。\n在这块神奇的土地上，每年都会给投资人带来一些“意外之喜”。\n如果说去年的“意外之喜”，属于拼多多(NASDAQ:PDD)；那么，今年的“意外之喜”恐怕非跟谁学（NYSE:GSX）莫属了。\n2019年第四季度，跟谁学营收为9.35亿元，甚至接近学而思网校(NYSE:TAL)的10.87亿元。跟谁学四季度的收入环比增速67.86%，远远高于学而思网校3.5%的环比增速，按照这个速度，或许我们将在明年看到跟谁学收入超过学而思网校。\n更让人惊讶的是，在遍地亏损的K12在线教育公司领域，跟谁学竟然率先实现盈利。2018年三季度起，跟谁学已经实现规模化的季度盈利；2019年，净利润更是爆棚达到2.26亿元。\n要知道，跟谁学在2017年8月才真正切入在线教育业务。换句话说，短短两年时间，跟谁学的收入规模已经接近行业头部水平，盈利能力更是远超同行。截至目前，跟谁学的市值已经高达105亿美元，接近好未来市值的三分之一。\n有意思的是，即使是行业里的人，也罕有人能说出跟谁学究竟是如何做到这个成绩？于是，百亿美金的跟谁学，成了2020年中概股中最大的谜团。\n/ 01 /收入规模和流量数据背离 \n从收入体量上来看，跟谁学是毫无疑问的头部品牌。但跟谁学的流量数据，与其规模并不匹配。换言之，跟谁学高速增长的线上收入和其过于低调的流量数据出现了背离。\n由于在线教育是通过互联网进行，网络流量是衡量有多少学生实际访问跟谁学平台的很好指标。\n昨日晚间，做空机构GrizzlyResearch发布一份做空报告。做空机构GrizzlyResearch参考了多种资源，包括Alexa、百度指数、微信指数、app下载量以及活跃度等多项指标，对跟谁学进行了全面的剖析。\n先说Alexa，这是一个被广泛使用的平台，根据流量趋势对网站进行排名。排名越高(数字越少)的网站通常在流量方面表现得越好，而排名越低(数字越多)的网站通常就会落后。事实上，与在线教育竞争对手相比，跟谁学在过去几年的趋势非常糟糕。\n\nAlexa显示，自2018年以来，与主要上市竞争对手相比，跟谁学和旗下另一品牌高途课堂的排名都是最低的。\n\n百度指数通过搜索分数反映了关键词的受欢迎程度。分数越高，受欢迎程度越高。\n\n正如上图我们所看到的，自2017年以来，跟谁学和高途课堂的趋势并不好。事实上，它们是最低的。由于冠状病毒带来的在线教育热潮，今年年初各大在线教育企业热度普遍增长。跟谁学也表示，这波热潮带来的新增用户在1500万左右，但实际上并没有反应在指数上。\n\n\n与其他一些非上市在线教育公司相比，跟谁学的搜索指数也并不突出。如下图所示，在过去的4年里，无论是跟谁学还是高途，都没有超过大多数的民办网络教育平台。\n\n如下图所示，在这波疫情中，跟谁学的百度指数表现也远不如作业帮和猿辅导。\n\n微信指数类似于百度指数，由于越来越多的人依赖移动应用和微信来进行搜索，微信指数同样是一个值得观察的指数。\n该指数只显示过去90天的搜索趋势。如下图所示，我们可以清楚的看到，跟谁学和高途教育，黄色和淡蓝色的线几乎一直在图表的底部，这表明相对较低的知名度。\n\n这同样是令人不解的。因为跟谁学一直表示，能够实现这样低成本的指数增长，是由于他们战略重点是微信裂变式营销。但实际上，通过微信指数来看，跟数学和高途教育加起来，既不如学而思网校，也不如猿辅导。\nRank2traffic.com可以查询包括历史流量、Alexa排名等。为了确保所有可能与之相关的流量数据，我们可以看一下所有有意义的公司网站和域名(那些没有足够数据的被排除在外)。以下是结果。\n\n\n\n\n当然，在线教育可能许多人最终使用移动应用程序，而不是网站来实际参与课程。我们可以来看一下app的数据。\n我们可以参考学而思网校和“跟谁学”、“高途课堂”在各大应用市场市场的下载量情况。如下图所示，虽然收入规模与学而思网校接近，但从下载量来看，差距明显。\n\n\n数据来源，各大应用市场（单位，万）\n另外，我们也可以参考QuestMobile的数据。日前，QuestMobile发表了一份报告，列举了疫情前后活跃度最高的几款在线教育app活跃度情况。\n如下图所示，我们可以看到的是，跟谁学的手机应用“跟谁学”和“高途课堂”都不在DAU手机应用前五名之列。\n\n当然，很多人把跟谁学的优秀表现，简单归结于对微信生态的高效运营，比如建立海量的跟谁学裂变微信群。进而推导出，跟谁学的逻辑，更像是拼多多。\n但跟谁学真的有机会成为下一个“拼多多”吗？\n/ 02 /在线教育出不了“拼多多”\n从获客成本看，跟谁学的数据确实远低于同行业。\n2019年，跟谁学的全年加权平均获客成本为470元，第四季度每正价课人次的获客成本更是只有400元，远低于学而思网校的获客成本。媒体报道，2019年暑假投放大战中，学而思网校的获客成本大概在700元左右。\n但值得注意的是，这里的“获客费用”是指，一定时间内所有付费用户的获客成本，而非单指新用户的获客成本。比如，2019年第四季度，跟谁学新增正价课付费用户110万，其中包括续费的用户。\n在这个口径下，影响获客成本数据的有两个因素：续报率和新客获客成本。\n先说续报率，按照公司的说法，获客成本低是因为续班率足够高。续班率取决于教学效果。\nK12的在线双师大班不是一个新的模式，最早起于2017年，到2018年已经如火如荼，学而思等头部公司也都有布局。在这种情况下，教学效果也不会拉开质的差别。\n根据读懂君了解，在各大在线教育头部公司都处于亏损情况下，续费率不会相差太多。\n从这个角度看，低成本的社群运营，或许才是跟谁学获客成本低的根本原因。\n这是一个很有意思的问题，众所周知，基于对微信生态，过去几年电商领域又诞生了一家市值百亿美金公司。那么，在在线教育领域，如何理解社群裂变对一家公司的影响，进而是否有可能诞生新的巨头？\n要想回答这个问题，我们必须弄清楚，拼多多成功的本质是什么。固然微信生态对早期拼多多崛起有至关重要的作用，但这并不是核心原因。\n核心原因是，在中国963万平方公里上，不同地域的人存在巨大差异，单单在购物一件事情上，他们的购物习惯、购物心理、商品偏好都存在巨大的差异。而拼多多正是通过不同的产品设计和运营策略很好满足了这种差异化的需求，最终成功。\n由于差异化需求的长期存在，拼多多颠覆不了阿里，阿里也杀不死拼多多。但这个逻辑在教育行业，根本站不住脚。\n尽管各地的教材可能略有差异，不同地域的人们对教育的需求并没有太大的差异。从这个角度来说，在线教育领域出不了“拼多多”。\n无论是传统线下教育，还是线上教育，最终比拼的都是教学效果。除非一个模式能在教学效果上拉开明显差异，否则任何公司都逃不了激烈的竞争。正如上文所说，跟谁学的大班模式并不新颖，更别说与同行在教学效果上拉开差距。\n换言之，即使有短期内的微信流量红利，跟谁学很难成为下一个“拼多多”。\n/ 03 /跟谁学未“上岸”\n尽管当下跟谁学的表现，或许已经足够优秀。但读懂君相信，任何商业模式和运营策略的创新，都逃不了生意本质的发展规律。跟谁学也不会例外。\n任何互联网+的产业，考验的都是供应链能力，而不是前端营销能力。于教育行业，同样如此。\n这也是大班模式的问题所在，尽管其财务模型是最优的，但由供给侧过于成熟和简单，越容易同质化竞争。同质化竞争导致了最终比拼的是规模效应，都希望在烧到对方弹尽粮绝的时候拿走垄断后的利润。\n换句话说，即使双师大班领域最后能跑出个一二三名，各家最多也只是在各个环节优化上有差异，并不是质的差别。\n但教育行业的供应链能力，并非简单的资源链接。从过去来看，教育行业建立优质供应链的时间壁垒极高。\n而中国教培市场二十年多年发展了二十多年，也只跑出了新东方(NYSE:EDU)和好未来两家公司。从过程来看，这两家公司都在供给侧建立了自己的优势：\n新东方建立了一整套教师的培训和激励体系，使得优质老师源源不断涌现。好未来则通过其极强的教材研发能力，极大降低了教师能力的门槛。\n在这方面，我们并不能不看到跟谁学在供应链类似的表现。从这个角度来说，尽管跟谁学涨势凶猛，但仍然与新东方和好未来差距甚远，还有很长的路要走。\n也许直到有一天，投资人不再讨论跟谁学的运营模式，而更多说的是教学效果时，跟谁学才算是真正“上岸”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915458643,"gmtCreate":1580914687982,"gmtModify":1704342873156,"author":{"id":"3470901367353823","authorId":"3470901367353823","name":"呵呵634","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470901367353823","authorIdStr":"3470901367353823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 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