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CV
2022-03-21
So...which one?
Buy QuantumScape Stock for 10X Gains by 2030
CV
2021-03-04
我不是学金融的所以不太懂。进一步刺激计划引发通胀预期，通胀预期引起加息隐忧，加息引起债券收益上升，债券收益上升引起股市大跌，股市大跌又呼唤刺激计划。是这个意思吗？？？？这不是一个悖论吗。
抱歉，原内容已删除
CV
2020-11-27
涨姿势
一文看懂：道指为何历史性突破三万点？
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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one?","listText":"So...which one?","text":"So...which one?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637978696","repostId":"1181892959","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181892959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646128223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181892959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-01 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy QuantumScape Stock for 10X Gains by 2030","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181892959","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Some of the stock market’s biggest winners in the 2020s will be solid-state battery makers","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>When it comes to stocks to buy with enormous long-term upside potential, few look more compelling than <b>QuantumScape</b> (NYSE:<b><u>QS</u></b>) stock.</p><p>As the leading solid-state battery maker, QS is developing a new generation of batteries. These next-gen batteries will enable electric vehicles to drive thousands of miles on a single charge. What’s more, QuantumScape’s breakthrough could allow for fast-charging (in mere minutes). Most exciting of all? It’s a “forever battery.”</p><p>That’s a big deal.</p><p>Electric vehicles are the future of transportation. That’s a foregone conclusion. Your average electric car only gets about 250 miles of driving range today. For that, it takes upward of an hour to fully charge. Each of these things make it implausible for EVs to replace gas cars.</p><p>To solve those issues, we need a new type of battery. Current lithium-ion batteries are maxed out. With lithium-ion batteries, we simply can’t create EVs that drive thousands of miles or recharge in minutes.</p><p>We need a new solution.</p><p>And QuantumScape is making that solution.</p><p><b>QuantumScape Stock: Introducing the Future of Batteries</b></p><p>While everyone is so hyped up about the EV Revolution, the plain truth is that it won’t go mainstream until we make better batteries.</p><p>To understand why, we need to take a quick trip back to chemistry class…</p><p>Batteries comprise three things: a cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. Batteries work by promoting the flow of ions between the cathode and anode through the electrolyte.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e917d10a78b5b5cf4ace8a761696992\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"756\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>Conventional lithium-ion batteries are built on liquid battery chemistry. That is, they comprise a solid cathode and anode. Connecting the two is a liquid electrolyte solution.</p><p>These batteries have worked wonders for years. But due to the constraints of liquid electrolytes, they’ve reached their energy cell density limit. So if we want our phones, watches, and electric cars to last longer and charge faster, we need a battery unlike any we’ve seen before.</p><p>Insert the solid-state battery.</p><p>With solid-state batteries, the name pretty much says it all. Take the liquid electrolyte solution in conventional batteries. Compress it into a solid. Create a small, hyper-compact solid battery. And because it has zero wasted space, this battery lasts far longer and charges far faster.</p><p>Of course, the implications of solid-state battery chemistry are huge.</p><p>Solid-state batteries could be the key to making our phones sustain power for days. They could enable our smartwatches to fully charge in seconds! And, yes, SSBs can allow electric cars to drive for thousands of miles without a recharge.</p><p>That’s why they’re dubbed as “forever batteries” by insiders. It is critical technology that can propel the EV Revolution into its next phase: supercharged growth.</p><p><b>QuantumScape Has Figured Out the Impossible</b></p><p>But, up until recently, making solid-state batteries was the stuff of science fiction. The science was just too prohibitively complex.</p><p>Then, along came a team of genius Stanford professors and scientists, and a few tech execs. With backing from some the most prestigious venture capital firms in the world, they started a QuantumScape in 2010.</p><p>Twelve years later, QuantumScape has basically solved the solid-state battery problem.</p><p>The biggest issue with solid-state batteries is something called “dendrites.” Dendrites are small cracks that form in the solid electrolyte during charging and recharging. Eventually, they get so big that they short-circuit the battery.</p><p>The big breakthrough in solid-state batteries, thus, lies in developing a solid electrolyte material that is dendrite-resistant.</p><p>About a year ago, QuantumScape did just that on a very tiny scale, with a single-layer battery cell. Sure, a single-layer battery cell is far from enough to power a car. But, since then, the company has proven that its proprietary, breakthrough solid-state battery technology works in 4-layer and 10-layer cells, and is showing early promising signs of working in 16-layer cells, too.</p><p>In other words, QuantumScape’s initial “tiny” solid-state battery breakthrough is proving to work even as the company scales up the battery size.</p><p>If this trend continues, then within a few years, QuantumScape will be commercializing effective solid-state batteries that are big enough to be used in cars.</p><p>The battery of the future will arrive – and QuantumScape will be the company making and selling that battery.</p><p>If that happens, the potential upside in QuantumScape stock is enormous.</p><p>By 2030, we estimate that around 75 million new passenger cars will be sold globally. We believe about half of those cars will be EVs. Of those EVs, we think around 10% will be outfitted with solid-state batteries. Assuming QuantumScape nabs about half of the solid-state battery market in EVs, and sells those batteries for around $7,000 a pop, the company could be looking at over $13 billion in revenues by 2030.</p><p>Assuming target 25% operating margins and a 20% tax rate, that implies potential 2030 profits of about $2.6 billion. A 20X price-to-earnings multiple on that implies a potential future valuation for QuantumScape of $55 BILLION – which is up nearly 10X from the current market cap.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269d8082b6f22b315645baaae04562bc\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"1013\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>That’s impressive. So, if you’re looking to buy and hold a growth stock that could make you really rich, QuantumScape stock should be at the top of your list.</p><p>But… believe it or not… QuantumScape stock is far from the only solid-state battery stock out there with millionaire-maker potential</p><p><b>The Final Word</b></p><p>Solid-state batteries are the future, and they represent one of the most promising technological breakthroughs of the 2020s.</p><p>Most people think of solid-state batteries as driving forward the EV Revolution. And they will, but they’re about so much more than that. Pretty much everything you use every day — your electric vehicle, your smartphone, and your laptop – are all built on lithium-ion batteries. The solid-state battery will revolutionize all of those devices, not just EVs.</p><p>This is a multi-TRILLION-dollar revolution in the making.</p><p>Some of the stock market’s biggest winners in the 2020s will be solid-state battery makers.</p><p>QuantumScape projects as one of those mega-winners. But it won’t be alone, and in fact, it may not even be the biggest winner…</p><p>Rather, that title is reserved for a tiny, completely unheard-of solid state battery maker whose stock is trading for less than $3 right now.</p><p>Less than $3… and this company could potentially change the world over the next decade.</p><p>Needless to say, the upside potential in this tiny stock is enormous – so big, in fact, that unlike QuantumScape, I can’t write its name in this post.</p><p>But, I did just give a presentation at the landmark Hudson Theater in Southern California, where I told a group of 60 people all about this tiny tech stock.</p><p>And right now, I’m going to pull back the curtains on that event, and give you a front-row seat to learning about the small, $3 stock at the epicenter of the biggest technological revolution of our lifetimes.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy QuantumScape Stock for 10X Gains by 2030</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy QuantumScape Stock for 10X Gains by 2030\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 17:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/02/buy-quantumscape-qs-stock-for-10x-gains-by-2030/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When it comes to stocks to buy with enormous long-term upside potential, few look more compelling than QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) stock.As the leading solid-state battery maker, QS is developing a new ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/02/buy-quantumscape-qs-stock-for-10x-gains-by-2030/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/02/buy-quantumscape-qs-stock-for-10x-gains-by-2030/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181892959","content_text":"When it comes to stocks to buy with enormous long-term upside potential, few look more compelling than QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) stock.As the leading solid-state battery maker, QS is developing a new generation of batteries. These next-gen batteries will enable electric vehicles to drive thousands of miles on a single charge. What’s more, QuantumScape’s breakthrough could allow for fast-charging (in mere minutes). Most exciting of all? It’s a “forever battery.”That’s a big deal.Electric vehicles are the future of transportation. That’s a foregone conclusion. Your average electric car only gets about 250 miles of driving range today. For that, it takes upward of an hour to fully charge. Each of these things make it implausible for EVs to replace gas cars.To solve those issues, we need a new type of battery. Current lithium-ion batteries are maxed out. With lithium-ion batteries, we simply can’t create EVs that drive thousands of miles or recharge in minutes.We need a new solution.And QuantumScape is making that solution.QuantumScape Stock: Introducing the Future of BatteriesWhile everyone is so hyped up about the EV Revolution, the plain truth is that it won’t go mainstream until we make better batteries.To understand why, we need to take a quick trip back to chemistry class…Batteries comprise three things: a cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. Batteries work by promoting the flow of ions between the cathode and anode through the electrolyte.Conventional lithium-ion batteries are built on liquid battery chemistry. That is, they comprise a solid cathode and anode. Connecting the two is a liquid electrolyte solution.These batteries have worked wonders for years. But due to the constraints of liquid electrolytes, they’ve reached their energy cell density limit. So if we want our phones, watches, and electric cars to last longer and charge faster, we need a battery unlike any we’ve seen before.Insert the solid-state battery.With solid-state batteries, the name pretty much says it all. Take the liquid electrolyte solution in conventional batteries. Compress it into a solid. Create a small, hyper-compact solid battery. And because it has zero wasted space, this battery lasts far longer and charges far faster.Of course, the implications of solid-state battery chemistry are huge.Solid-state batteries could be the key to making our phones sustain power for days. They could enable our smartwatches to fully charge in seconds! And, yes, SSBs can allow electric cars to drive for thousands of miles without a recharge.That’s why they’re dubbed as “forever batteries” by insiders. It is critical technology that can propel the EV Revolution into its next phase: supercharged growth.QuantumScape Has Figured Out the ImpossibleBut, up until recently, making solid-state batteries was the stuff of science fiction. The science was just too prohibitively complex.Then, along came a team of genius Stanford professors and scientists, and a few tech execs. With backing from some the most prestigious venture capital firms in the world, they started a QuantumScape in 2010.Twelve years later, QuantumScape has basically solved the solid-state battery problem.The biggest issue with solid-state batteries is something called “dendrites.” Dendrites are small cracks that form in the solid electrolyte during charging and recharging. Eventually, they get so big that they short-circuit the battery.The big breakthrough in solid-state batteries, thus, lies in developing a solid electrolyte material that is dendrite-resistant.About a year ago, QuantumScape did just that on a very tiny scale, with a single-layer battery cell. Sure, a single-layer battery cell is far from enough to power a car. But, since then, the company has proven that its proprietary, breakthrough solid-state battery technology works in 4-layer and 10-layer cells, and is showing early promising signs of working in 16-layer cells, too.In other words, QuantumScape’s initial “tiny” solid-state battery breakthrough is proving to work even as the company scales up the battery size.If this trend continues, then within a few years, QuantumScape will be commercializing effective solid-state batteries that are big enough to be used in cars.The battery of the future will arrive – and QuantumScape will be the company making and selling that battery.If that happens, the potential upside in QuantumScape stock is enormous.By 2030, we estimate that around 75 million new passenger cars will be sold globally. We believe about half of those cars will be EVs. Of those EVs, we think around 10% will be outfitted with solid-state batteries. Assuming QuantumScape nabs about half of the solid-state battery market in EVs, and sells those batteries for around $7,000 a pop, the company could be looking at over $13 billion in revenues by 2030.Assuming target 25% operating margins and a 20% tax rate, that implies potential 2030 profits of about $2.6 billion. A 20X price-to-earnings multiple on that implies a potential future valuation for QuantumScape of $55 BILLION – which is up nearly 10X from the current market cap.That’s impressive. So, if you’re looking to buy and hold a growth stock that could make you really rich, QuantumScape stock should be at the top of your list.But… believe it or not… QuantumScape stock is far from the only solid-state battery stock out there with millionaire-maker potentialThe Final WordSolid-state batteries are the future, and they represent one of the most promising technological breakthroughs of the 2020s.Most people think of solid-state batteries as driving forward the EV Revolution. And they will, but they’re about so much more than that. Pretty much everything you use every day — your electric vehicle, your smartphone, and your laptop – are all built on lithium-ion batteries. The solid-state battery will revolutionize all of those devices, not just EVs.This is a multi-TRILLION-dollar revolution in the making.Some of the stock market’s biggest winners in the 2020s will be solid-state battery makers.QuantumScape projects as one of those mega-winners. But it won’t be alone, and in fact, it may not even be the biggest winner…Rather, that title is reserved for a tiny, completely unheard-of solid state battery maker whose stock is trading for less than $3 right now.Less than $3… and this company could potentially change the world over the next decade.Needless to say, the upside potential in this tiny stock is enormous – so big, in fact, that unlike QuantumScape, I can’t write its name in this post.But, I did just give a presentation at the landmark Hudson Theater in Southern California, where I told a group of 60 people all about this tiny tech stock.And right now, I’m going to pull back the curtains on that event, and give you a front-row seat to learning about the small, $3 stock at the epicenter of the biggest technological revolution of our lifetimes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364257595,"gmtCreate":1614858933917,"gmtModify":1703482064808,"author":{"id":"3470880020503813","authorId":"3470880020503813","name":"CV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe06809dbdad64cc4ccf751092b42e5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470880020503813","authorIdStr":"3470880020503813"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我不是学金融的所以不太懂。进一步刺激计划引发通胀预期，通胀预期引起加息隐忧，加息引起债券收益上升，债券收益上升引起股市大跌，股市大跌又呼唤刺激计划。是这个意思吗？？？？这不是一个悖论吗。","listText":"我不是学金融的所以不太懂。进一步刺激计划引发通胀预期，通胀预期引起加息隐忧，加息引起债券收益上升，债券收益上升引起股市大跌，股市大跌又呼唤刺激计划。是这个意思吗？？？？这不是一个悖论吗。","text":"我不是学金融的所以不太懂。进一步刺激计划引发通胀预期，通胀预期引起加息隐忧，加息引起债券收益上升，债券收益上升引起股市大跌，股市大跌又呼唤刺激计划。是这个意思吗？？？？这不是一个悖论吗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364257595","repostId":"2116575446","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391007550,"gmtCreate":1606408846770,"gmtModify":1703843017522,"author":{"id":"3470880020503813","authorId":"3470880020503813","name":"CV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe06809dbdad64cc4ccf751092b42e5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3470880020503813","authorIdStr":"3470880020503813"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"涨姿势","listText":"涨姿势","text":"涨姿势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391007550","repostId":"1106808022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106808022","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1606393999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106808022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-26 20:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一文看懂：道指为何历史性突破三万点？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106808022","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"1976年的纽交所，当时道指在1000点附近。图片来源：BETTMANN ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES在美国现任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，其政府将配合当选总统拜登(Joe","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47179d2e357ecba854c23cadd9525030\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\"></p><p>1976年的纽交所，当时道指在1000点附近。图片来源：BETTMANN ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>在美国现任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，其政府将配合当选总统拜登(Joe Biden)进行权力交接后。美国股市周二大幅上涨，道琼斯指数首次突破了3万点。</p><p>这一消息缓解了投资者对可能出现长期不确定环境的担忧，也为近期新冠疫苗研发取得可喜成果所激发的上涨行情助了一臂之力。</p><p>由30只蓝筹股构成的道琼斯指数周二小幅高开，并在前市交易中加速上扬。美东时间11:30前不久，道指在几次试探3万点的重要关口后终于一举突破。</p><p>道指周二收盘上涨454.97点，涨幅1.5%，至30046.24点，创下2020年以来第九次收盘纪录。该指数较3月份低点上涨了62%，年内涨幅5.3%。</p><p>Citi Personal Wealth Management投资策略主管Shawn Snyder表示：“投资者对2021年年中经济复苏表现出信心”。他说，道指和罗素2000等指数都能从经济复苏中受益，因为这些指数中包含更多与经济形势密切相关的周期性股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df4ff8d029d7261ab417594ac80b75b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"644\"></p><p>经常在Twitter上谈论股市反弹的特朗普在一次简短的新闻发布会上把3万点的盘中里程碑称作一个“神圣的数字”。</p><p>投资者欣喜地看到，围绕白宫控制权展开的一场长期争夺战可能正接近尾声，从而降低了冬季几个月内的政治风险。美国总务管理局局长周一表示，总务管理局将向拜登提供联邦资源，协助权力的顺利移交。特朗普还表示，他已指示助手协助过渡工作。</p><p>SYZ Private Banking投资主管Luc Filip说：“这是一个非常积极的进展，意味着交接工作最终可能会顺利进行。”“这将缓解过去两三周以来一直笼罩市场的不确定性。”</p><p>标普500指数也缔造了历史新高度，周二收盘上涨57.82点，至3635.41点，涨幅1.6%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨156.15点，至12036.79点，涨幅1.3%，创历史收盘第二高。</p><p>美股3月份以来的反弹力度连市场老手都颇感惊讶。LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，如果标普500指数今年以上涨姿态收官（目前涨幅超过12%），将意味着该指数在年内一度下跌至少30%，但全年依然累计上涨，这在历史上将是第一次。</p><p>但他还是提醒大家不要过度兴奋，尤其是在投资者全面买入风险资产的狂热情绪之下。他说：“市场现在相当亢奋，但市场总有妙法让大众赚不到钱。”他说，现在这个点位出现涨势放缓或回落现象都是完全正常的。</p><p>在《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)报道称拜登计划提名前美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)担任财政部长后，乐观情绪也有所升温。耶伦最近表示，如果国会不花更多的钱应对失业和维持小企业的生存，那么经济复苏将是不均衡和乏力的。</p><p>耶伦可能首先决定重启美联储和财政部今年春季推出的一系列支持信贷增长的举措。现任财政部长姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)上周决定，将在今年年底停止购买贷款或资产，拒绝了美联储延长这些购买计划的请求。</p><p>安联(Allianz)资本市场研究全球主管Eric Barthalon表示：她已经表明了自己的态度，愿意把经济的下行风险降至最小。””从市场角度看，这是一个好消息。”</p><p>在最近的美国消费者信心调查中，有一个信号值得警惕。根据世界大型企业研究会(Conference Board)的数据，由于11月全国新冠病例飙升，消费者对经济前景的看法变差。</p><p>海外方面，泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.9%，至392.39点。欧洲股市中，旅游股上涨，因英国政府之前宣布，从12月15日起，如果旅行者的新冠检测结果为阴性，将允许他们减少隔离天数。</p><p>旅游股在美国市场也上涨。美国航空集团、美国联合大陆控股有限公司、美国西南航空和阿拉斯加航空集团涨幅均在3%以上。</p><p>什么因素可能破坏经济复苏？</p><p>相较于新冠疫情而言，美中贸易摩擦或央行政策失误等投资者过去几年中的许多担忧似乎已经退居次要地位。一些投资者和分析人士表示，暂时而言，他们最担心的是，新冠病毒在冬季和春季的传播可能恶化到各州被迫再次关闭经济的程度，就像欧洲部分地区出现的情况一样。</p><p>不过，即便是上述风险也很难评估。</p><p>贝尔德说道：“看看我们在过去六个月经历的事情。消息面变化得太快了。”他还称，他一般给予客户的建议是，坚持做出长期的投资决策，而不是试图根据最新的重大消息进行交易。</p><p>令许多人普遍感到安慰的是，情况较之3月份已经有所改善。</p><p>景顺的莱维特表示：“幸运的是，我们已经从中学到了一点经验。”他说道：“这种复苏将会时断时续地发生，但最终，我们将迎来一个长周期，我认为我们正在为这个长周期的开端奠定基础。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed161dac88c5fbd0cd39dec39935a4b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>查尔斯·道于1896年开始在《华尔街日报》上发布与他同名的股票平均价格指数。图片来源：ULLSTEIN BILD/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>对很多普通投资者来说，道琼斯指数追踪美国大盘股一个多世纪，我们从这个蓝筹股指数的起起落落可以了解金融市场的每日动向，而该指数自1896年以来的演变则反映了美国及全球经济的变化。为此，我们整理了关于道琼斯指数的相关信息供大家参考：</p><p>问：什么是道琼斯指数？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数追踪30只美国大型公司的股票。该指数囊括除公用事业和房地产以外的所有主要行业板块，公用事业类股和运输类股被纳入不同的指数。道琼斯指数起初是衡量重工业和原材料公司表现的指标，但随着美国经济的发展，该指数追踪的个股涵盖范围比之前广泛得多。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数是怎么计算的？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数的计算方法是将30只股票的价格相加，然后除以一个因子，即“道琼斯指数除数”，该因子有助于平滑股票拆分和新纳入个股等不常见的变化。目前该除数为0.15198707565833。由于该除数小于1，因此得出的“平均值”大于成分股价格之和。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数与标普500指数等其他基准股指有何不同？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数是按股票价格进行加权的。标普500指数等其他指数是按股票市值进行加权的。这就造成了这两只指数的涨跌表现有些不一致。在相同涨幅的情况下，周二收盘价约336美元的UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)股价大幅上涨对道琼斯指数的影响，要远远大于收盘价约115美元的苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)。但是，从市值来看，苹果公司的市值大约是UnitedHealth的六倍，因此，在这两只股票表现差不多的情况下，苹果公司股票对标普500指数的影响比UnitedHealth要大。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数的起源是什么？</p><p>答：查尔斯·道(Charles Dow)是《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的首位编辑，也是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯公司(Dow Jones & Co.)的联合创始人，他创建了道琼斯指数，目的是帮助向读者解释股市走势。从1896年开始，《华尔街日报》每天发布反映12只股票价格平均数的道琼斯指数。（一个更早版本的道琼斯指数主要由铁路股票组成，于1884年在一份前身刊物上发布。）1916年，道琼斯指数的成份股数量扩大到20只，1928年进一步增加到30只。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数的最初成分股还在吗？</p><p>答：不在了。2018年，沃博联(Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., WBA)被纳入道琼斯指数成份股，取代了通用电气(General Electric Co., GE)。在那之前，通用电气是1896年12只最初成分股中最后一只仍留在该指数中的股票；不过，在中间一些年，通用电气曾被剔除出道琼斯指数，后来又被重新纳入。在今年8月份被剔除出道琼斯指数之前，埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)是道琼斯指数中保持时间最长的股票，该公司在1928年以Standard Oil of New Jersey的身份获纳入。现在，1932年被纳入道琼斯指数的宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., PG)拥有这一纪录。这些年来，被纳入又被剔除的道琼斯指数成份股包括Sears Roebuck & Co.、Studebaker、Woolworth、National Cash Register等。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数成分股多长时间调整一次？</p><p>答：没有固定时间表。有些公司被剔除，后又重新纳入。International Business Machines (IBM, 简称IBM)于1932年加入，1939年被剔除，40年后重新加入。可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co., KO) 1932年加入，1935年被剔除，1987年重新获纳入。目前这两家公司仍是道琼斯指数成分股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7e509e42fb22595c49f09f6036ac66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>1933年，位于南加州的一家可口可乐工厂。图片来源：DICK WHITTINGTON STUDIO/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>问：谁来决定将哪些股票纳入道琼斯指数？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数构成由标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)和《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)代表组成的委员会决定。根据该指数构成方法，这个委员会考虑的是总部设在美国、具有 \"良好声誉 \"和持续增长能力、受到投资者密切关注的公司。</p><p>问：追踪道琼斯指数的资金规模有多大？</p><p>答：根据标普道琼斯指数公司的数据，截至2019年底，约有280亿美元的投资产品与道琼斯指数挂钩，寻求追踪其表现。对于标普500指数，这个数字为4.6万亿美元。</p><p>问：1,000点的波动对于道琼斯指数来说重要性有多大？</p><p>答：不及之前。在1987年10月19日，即华尔街的黑色星期一，道琼斯指数下挫22.6%，跌去508点，报1738.74点。而在30,000点的水平处，下跌508点相应的跌幅为1.7%，今年以来道琼斯指数已经30多次超过这一跌幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9e86de811e9aea3b019634eceb2792\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>1996年，纽交所举行了道琼斯指数成立100周年纪念仪式。图片来源：TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文看懂：道指为何历史性突破三万点？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文看懂：道指为何历史性突破三万点？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-26 20:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47179d2e357ecba854c23cadd9525030\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\"></p><p>1976年的纽交所，当时道指在1000点附近。图片来源：BETTMANN ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>在美国现任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，其政府将配合当选总统拜登(Joe Biden)进行权力交接后。美国股市周二大幅上涨，道琼斯指数首次突破了3万点。</p><p>这一消息缓解了投资者对可能出现长期不确定环境的担忧，也为近期新冠疫苗研发取得可喜成果所激发的上涨行情助了一臂之力。</p><p>由30只蓝筹股构成的道琼斯指数周二小幅高开，并在前市交易中加速上扬。美东时间11:30前不久，道指在几次试探3万点的重要关口后终于一举突破。</p><p>道指周二收盘上涨454.97点，涨幅1.5%，至30046.24点，创下2020年以来第九次收盘纪录。该指数较3月份低点上涨了62%，年内涨幅5.3%。</p><p>Citi Personal Wealth Management投资策略主管Shawn Snyder表示：“投资者对2021年年中经济复苏表现出信心”。他说，道指和罗素2000等指数都能从经济复苏中受益，因为这些指数中包含更多与经济形势密切相关的周期性股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df4ff8d029d7261ab417594ac80b75b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"644\"></p><p>经常在Twitter上谈论股市反弹的特朗普在一次简短的新闻发布会上把3万点的盘中里程碑称作一个“神圣的数字”。</p><p>投资者欣喜地看到，围绕白宫控制权展开的一场长期争夺战可能正接近尾声，从而降低了冬季几个月内的政治风险。美国总务管理局局长周一表示，总务管理局将向拜登提供联邦资源，协助权力的顺利移交。特朗普还表示，他已指示助手协助过渡工作。</p><p>SYZ Private Banking投资主管Luc Filip说：“这是一个非常积极的进展，意味着交接工作最终可能会顺利进行。”“这将缓解过去两三周以来一直笼罩市场的不确定性。”</p><p>标普500指数也缔造了历史新高度，周二收盘上涨57.82点，至3635.41点，涨幅1.6%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨156.15点，至12036.79点，涨幅1.3%，创历史收盘第二高。</p><p>美股3月份以来的反弹力度连市场老手都颇感惊讶。LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，如果标普500指数今年以上涨姿态收官（目前涨幅超过12%），将意味着该指数在年内一度下跌至少30%，但全年依然累计上涨，这在历史上将是第一次。</p><p>但他还是提醒大家不要过度兴奋，尤其是在投资者全面买入风险资产的狂热情绪之下。他说：“市场现在相当亢奋，但市场总有妙法让大众赚不到钱。”他说，现在这个点位出现涨势放缓或回落现象都是完全正常的。</p><p>在《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)报道称拜登计划提名前美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)担任财政部长后，乐观情绪也有所升温。耶伦最近表示，如果国会不花更多的钱应对失业和维持小企业的生存，那么经济复苏将是不均衡和乏力的。</p><p>耶伦可能首先决定重启美联储和财政部今年春季推出的一系列支持信贷增长的举措。现任财政部长姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)上周决定，将在今年年底停止购买贷款或资产，拒绝了美联储延长这些购买计划的请求。</p><p>安联(Allianz)资本市场研究全球主管Eric Barthalon表示：她已经表明了自己的态度，愿意把经济的下行风险降至最小。””从市场角度看，这是一个好消息。”</p><p>在最近的美国消费者信心调查中，有一个信号值得警惕。根据世界大型企业研究会(Conference Board)的数据，由于11月全国新冠病例飙升，消费者对经济前景的看法变差。</p><p>海外方面，泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.9%，至392.39点。欧洲股市中，旅游股上涨，因英国政府之前宣布，从12月15日起，如果旅行者的新冠检测结果为阴性，将允许他们减少隔离天数。</p><p>旅游股在美国市场也上涨。美国航空集团、美国联合大陆控股有限公司、美国西南航空和阿拉斯加航空集团涨幅均在3%以上。</p><p>什么因素可能破坏经济复苏？</p><p>相较于新冠疫情而言，美中贸易摩擦或央行政策失误等投资者过去几年中的许多担忧似乎已经退居次要地位。一些投资者和分析人士表示，暂时而言，他们最担心的是，新冠病毒在冬季和春季的传播可能恶化到各州被迫再次关闭经济的程度，就像欧洲部分地区出现的情况一样。</p><p>不过，即便是上述风险也很难评估。</p><p>贝尔德说道：“看看我们在过去六个月经历的事情。消息面变化得太快了。”他还称，他一般给予客户的建议是，坚持做出长期的投资决策，而不是试图根据最新的重大消息进行交易。</p><p>令许多人普遍感到安慰的是，情况较之3月份已经有所改善。</p><p>景顺的莱维特表示：“幸运的是，我们已经从中学到了一点经验。”他说道：“这种复苏将会时断时续地发生，但最终，我们将迎来一个长周期，我认为我们正在为这个长周期的开端奠定基础。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed161dac88c5fbd0cd39dec39935a4b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>查尔斯·道于1896年开始在《华尔街日报》上发布与他同名的股票平均价格指数。图片来源：ULLSTEIN BILD/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>对很多普通投资者来说，道琼斯指数追踪美国大盘股一个多世纪，我们从这个蓝筹股指数的起起落落可以了解金融市场的每日动向，而该指数自1896年以来的演变则反映了美国及全球经济的变化。为此，我们整理了关于道琼斯指数的相关信息供大家参考：</p><p>问：什么是道琼斯指数？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数追踪30只美国大型公司的股票。该指数囊括除公用事业和房地产以外的所有主要行业板块，公用事业类股和运输类股被纳入不同的指数。道琼斯指数起初是衡量重工业和原材料公司表现的指标，但随着美国经济的发展，该指数追踪的个股涵盖范围比之前广泛得多。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数是怎么计算的？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数的计算方法是将30只股票的价格相加，然后除以一个因子，即“道琼斯指数除数”，该因子有助于平滑股票拆分和新纳入个股等不常见的变化。目前该除数为0.15198707565833。由于该除数小于1，因此得出的“平均值”大于成分股价格之和。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数与标普500指数等其他基准股指有何不同？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数是按股票价格进行加权的。标普500指数等其他指数是按股票市值进行加权的。这就造成了这两只指数的涨跌表现有些不一致。在相同涨幅的情况下，周二收盘价约336美元的UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)股价大幅上涨对道琼斯指数的影响，要远远大于收盘价约115美元的苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)。但是，从市值来看，苹果公司的市值大约是UnitedHealth的六倍，因此，在这两只股票表现差不多的情况下，苹果公司股票对标普500指数的影响比UnitedHealth要大。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数的起源是什么？</p><p>答：查尔斯·道(Charles Dow)是《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的首位编辑，也是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯公司(Dow Jones & Co.)的联合创始人，他创建了道琼斯指数，目的是帮助向读者解释股市走势。从1896年开始，《华尔街日报》每天发布反映12只股票价格平均数的道琼斯指数。（一个更早版本的道琼斯指数主要由铁路股票组成，于1884年在一份前身刊物上发布。）1916年，道琼斯指数的成份股数量扩大到20只，1928年进一步增加到30只。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数的最初成分股还在吗？</p><p>答：不在了。2018年，沃博联(Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., WBA)被纳入道琼斯指数成份股，取代了通用电气(General Electric Co., GE)。在那之前，通用电气是1896年12只最初成分股中最后一只仍留在该指数中的股票；不过，在中间一些年，通用电气曾被剔除出道琼斯指数，后来又被重新纳入。在今年8月份被剔除出道琼斯指数之前，埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)是道琼斯指数中保持时间最长的股票，该公司在1928年以Standard Oil of New Jersey的身份获纳入。现在，1932年被纳入道琼斯指数的宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., PG)拥有这一纪录。这些年来，被纳入又被剔除的道琼斯指数成份股包括Sears Roebuck & Co.、Studebaker、Woolworth、National Cash Register等。</p><p>问：道琼斯指数成分股多长时间调整一次？</p><p>答：没有固定时间表。有些公司被剔除，后又重新纳入。International Business Machines (IBM, 简称IBM)于1932年加入，1939年被剔除，40年后重新加入。可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co., KO) 1932年加入，1935年被剔除，1987年重新获纳入。目前这两家公司仍是道琼斯指数成分股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7e509e42fb22595c49f09f6036ac66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>1933年，位于南加州的一家可口可乐工厂。图片来源：DICK WHITTINGTON STUDIO/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES</p><p>问：谁来决定将哪些股票纳入道琼斯指数？</p><p>答：道琼斯指数构成由标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)和《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)代表组成的委员会决定。根据该指数构成方法，这个委员会考虑的是总部设在美国、具有 \"良好声誉 \"和持续增长能力、受到投资者密切关注的公司。</p><p>问：追踪道琼斯指数的资金规模有多大？</p><p>答：根据标普道琼斯指数公司的数据，截至2019年底，约有280亿美元的投资产品与道琼斯指数挂钩，寻求追踪其表现。对于标普500指数，这个数字为4.6万亿美元。</p><p>问：1,000点的波动对于道琼斯指数来说重要性有多大？</p><p>答：不及之前。在1987年10月19日，即华尔街的黑色星期一，道琼斯指数下挫22.6%，跌去508点，报1738.74点。而在30,000点的水平处，下跌508点相应的跌幅为1.7%，今年以来道琼斯指数已经30多次超过这一跌幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9e86de811e9aea3b019634eceb2792\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>1996年，纽交所举行了道琼斯指数成立100周年纪念仪式。图片来源：TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106808022","content_text":"1976年的纽交所，当时道指在1000点附近。图片来源：BETTMANN ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES在美国现任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，其政府将配合当选总统拜登(Joe Biden)进行权力交接后。美国股市周二大幅上涨，道琼斯指数首次突破了3万点。这一消息缓解了投资者对可能出现长期不确定环境的担忧，也为近期新冠疫苗研发取得可喜成果所激发的上涨行情助了一臂之力。由30只蓝筹股构成的道琼斯指数周二小幅高开，并在前市交易中加速上扬。美东时间11:30前不久，道指在几次试探3万点的重要关口后终于一举突破。道指周二收盘上涨454.97点，涨幅1.5%，至30046.24点，创下2020年以来第九次收盘纪录。该指数较3月份低点上涨了62%，年内涨幅5.3%。Citi Personal Wealth Management投资策略主管Shawn Snyder表示：“投资者对2021年年中经济复苏表现出信心”。他说，道指和罗素2000等指数都能从经济复苏中受益，因为这些指数中包含更多与经济形势密切相关的周期性股票。经常在Twitter上谈论股市反弹的特朗普在一次简短的新闻发布会上把3万点的盘中里程碑称作一个“神圣的数字”。投资者欣喜地看到，围绕白宫控制权展开的一场长期争夺战可能正接近尾声，从而降低了冬季几个月内的政治风险。美国总务管理局局长周一表示，总务管理局将向拜登提供联邦资源，协助权力的顺利移交。特朗普还表示，他已指示助手协助过渡工作。SYZ Private Banking投资主管Luc Filip说：“这是一个非常积极的进展，意味着交接工作最终可能会顺利进行。”“这将缓解过去两三周以来一直笼罩市场的不确定性。”标普500指数也缔造了历史新高度，周二收盘上涨57.82点，至3635.41点，涨幅1.6%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨156.15点，至12036.79点，涨幅1.3%，创历史收盘第二高。美股3月份以来的反弹力度连市场老手都颇感惊讶。LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，如果标普500指数今年以上涨姿态收官（目前涨幅超过12%），将意味着该指数在年内一度下跌至少30%，但全年依然累计上涨，这在历史上将是第一次。但他还是提醒大家不要过度兴奋，尤其是在投资者全面买入风险资产的狂热情绪之下。他说：“市场现在相当亢奋，但市场总有妙法让大众赚不到钱。”他说，现在这个点位出现涨势放缓或回落现象都是完全正常的。在《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)报道称拜登计划提名前美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)担任财政部长后，乐观情绪也有所升温。耶伦最近表示，如果国会不花更多的钱应对失业和维持小企业的生存，那么经济复苏将是不均衡和乏力的。耶伦可能首先决定重启美联储和财政部今年春季推出的一系列支持信贷增长的举措。现任财政部长姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)上周决定，将在今年年底停止购买贷款或资产，拒绝了美联储延长这些购买计划的请求。安联(Allianz)资本市场研究全球主管Eric Barthalon表示：她已经表明了自己的态度，愿意把经济的下行风险降至最小。””从市场角度看，这是一个好消息。”在最近的美国消费者信心调查中，有一个信号值得警惕。根据世界大型企业研究会(Conference Board)的数据，由于11月全国新冠病例飙升，消费者对经济前景的看法变差。海外方面，泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.9%，至392.39点。欧洲股市中，旅游股上涨，因英国政府之前宣布，从12月15日起，如果旅行者的新冠检测结果为阴性，将允许他们减少隔离天数。旅游股在美国市场也上涨。美国航空集团、美国联合大陆控股有限公司、美国西南航空和阿拉斯加航空集团涨幅均在3%以上。什么因素可能破坏经济复苏？相较于新冠疫情而言，美中贸易摩擦或央行政策失误等投资者过去几年中的许多担忧似乎已经退居次要地位。一些投资者和分析人士表示，暂时而言，他们最担心的是，新冠病毒在冬季和春季的传播可能恶化到各州被迫再次关闭经济的程度，就像欧洲部分地区出现的情况一样。不过，即便是上述风险也很难评估。贝尔德说道：“看看我们在过去六个月经历的事情。消息面变化得太快了。”他还称，他一般给予客户的建议是，坚持做出长期的投资决策，而不是试图根据最新的重大消息进行交易。令许多人普遍感到安慰的是，情况较之3月份已经有所改善。景顺的莱维特表示：“幸运的是，我们已经从中学到了一点经验。”他说道：“这种复苏将会时断时续地发生，但最终，我们将迎来一个长周期，我认为我们正在为这个长周期的开端奠定基础。”查尔斯·道于1896年开始在《华尔街日报》上发布与他同名的股票平均价格指数。图片来源：ULLSTEIN BILD/GETTY IMAGES对很多普通投资者来说，道琼斯指数追踪美国大盘股一个多世纪，我们从这个蓝筹股指数的起起落落可以了解金融市场的每日动向，而该指数自1896年以来的演变则反映了美国及全球经济的变化。为此，我们整理了关于道琼斯指数的相关信息供大家参考：问：什么是道琼斯指数？答：道琼斯指数追踪30只美国大型公司的股票。该指数囊括除公用事业和房地产以外的所有主要行业板块，公用事业类股和运输类股被纳入不同的指数。道琼斯指数起初是衡量重工业和原材料公司表现的指标，但随着美国经济的发展，该指数追踪的个股涵盖范围比之前广泛得多。问：道琼斯指数是怎么计算的？答：道琼斯指数的计算方法是将30只股票的价格相加，然后除以一个因子，即“道琼斯指数除数”，该因子有助于平滑股票拆分和新纳入个股等不常见的变化。目前该除数为0.15198707565833。由于该除数小于1，因此得出的“平均值”大于成分股价格之和。问：道琼斯指数与标普500指数等其他基准股指有何不同？答：道琼斯指数是按股票价格进行加权的。标普500指数等其他指数是按股票市值进行加权的。这就造成了这两只指数的涨跌表现有些不一致。在相同涨幅的情况下，周二收盘价约336美元的UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)股价大幅上涨对道琼斯指数的影响，要远远大于收盘价约115美元的苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)。但是，从市值来看，苹果公司的市值大约是UnitedHealth的六倍，因此，在这两只股票表现差不多的情况下，苹果公司股票对标普500指数的影响比UnitedHealth要大。问：道琼斯指数的起源是什么？答：查尔斯·道(Charles Dow)是《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的首位编辑，也是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯公司(Dow Jones & Co.)的联合创始人，他创建了道琼斯指数，目的是帮助向读者解释股市走势。从1896年开始，《华尔街日报》每天发布反映12只股票价格平均数的道琼斯指数。（一个更早版本的道琼斯指数主要由铁路股票组成，于1884年在一份前身刊物上发布。）1916年，道琼斯指数的成份股数量扩大到20只，1928年进一步增加到30只。问：道琼斯指数的最初成分股还在吗？答：不在了。2018年，沃博联(Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., WBA)被纳入道琼斯指数成份股，取代了通用电气(General Electric Co., GE)。在那之前，通用电气是1896年12只最初成分股中最后一只仍留在该指数中的股票；不过，在中间一些年，通用电气曾被剔除出道琼斯指数，后来又被重新纳入。在今年8月份被剔除出道琼斯指数之前，埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)是道琼斯指数中保持时间最长的股票，该公司在1928年以Standard Oil of New Jersey的身份获纳入。现在，1932年被纳入道琼斯指数的宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., PG)拥有这一纪录。这些年来，被纳入又被剔除的道琼斯指数成份股包括Sears Roebuck & Co.、Studebaker、Woolworth、National Cash Register等。问：道琼斯指数成分股多长时间调整一次？答：没有固定时间表。有些公司被剔除，后又重新纳入。International Business Machines (IBM, 简称IBM)于1932年加入，1939年被剔除，40年后重新加入。可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co., KO) 1932年加入，1935年被剔除，1987年重新获纳入。目前这两家公司仍是道琼斯指数成分股。1933年，位于南加州的一家可口可乐工厂。图片来源：DICK WHITTINGTON STUDIO/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES问：谁来决定将哪些股票纳入道琼斯指数？答：道琼斯指数构成由标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)和《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)代表组成的委员会决定。根据该指数构成方法，这个委员会考虑的是总部设在美国、具有 \"良好声誉 \"和持续增长能力、受到投资者密切关注的公司。问：追踪道琼斯指数的资金规模有多大？答：根据标普道琼斯指数公司的数据，截至2019年底，约有280亿美元的投资产品与道琼斯指数挂钩，寻求追踪其表现。对于标普500指数，这个数字为4.6万亿美元。问：1,000点的波动对于道琼斯指数来说重要性有多大？答：不及之前。在1987年10月19日，即华尔街的黑色星期一，道琼斯指数下挫22.6%，跌去508点，报1738.74点。而在30,000点的水平处，下跌508点相应的跌幅为1.7%，今年以来道琼斯指数已经30多次超过这一跌幅。1996年，纽交所举行了道琼斯指数成立100周年纪念仪式。图片来源：TIMOTHY A. 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