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暮雪寒寒
2018-08-30
$AMD(AMD)$当初买了点,大半年没看过,厉害了这!!!!
暮雪寒寒
2017-09-21
我刚刚看到了万手
$AMD(AMD)$ 这么大起大落真的好么?我害怕。谁来救救我。。都不知道该不该入了。。。
我刚刚看到了万手
暮雪寒寒
2017-08-30
请问阿里巴巴今天晚上敢上车么
看了大阿里这么久了,今天忍不住想买了,大家说是时候么$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 😂😂😂,不知道今天晚上会不会继续跌啊
请问阿里巴巴今天晚上敢上车么
暮雪寒寒
2020-07-09
$搜狗(SOGO)$
这股票是不是永远没办法回到发行价了?
暮雪寒寒
2017-11-07
为何阿里每到双十一股票就这鸟样??
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 如题。有人恶意做空??。。本以为今年是的意外,会起飞的。
为何阿里每到双十一股票就这鸟样??
暮雪寒寒
2020-07-29
$搜狗(SOGO)$
搜狗退市了以后,我手里的股票是不是都没了??直接现金给我??
暮雪寒寒
2022-10-05
等老A开盘就给你跌回来[白眼]
抱歉,原内容已删除
暮雪寒寒
2021-06-12
$英伟达(NVDA)$
[惊讶] [惊讶]
暮雪寒寒
2017-11-13
大家心里价位是多少
$阅文集团(00772)$ 已经开启下跌模式了,不知道会不会破90,有没有人分析一下支撑点位是多少?
大家心里价位是多少
暮雪寒寒
2017-09-06
腾讯最近横盘嘛情况?
$腾讯控股(00700)$ 最近腾讯为何一直横盘320-330一直都是酱紫,出了都不敢再买了?难道真要我直接入,然后卸载APP?
腾讯最近横盘嘛情况?
暮雪寒寒
2022-10-02
这哪里是什么黑天鹅?这就是灰犀牛
抱歉,原内容已删除
暮雪寒寒
2020-09-14
都怪当初怂的太快,惹了国家
抱歉,原内容已删除
暮雪寒寒
09-27
股价长期看业绩,短期就看货币
暮雪寒寒
01-24
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
昨天晚上中概那么爆炸,今天就这?
暮雪寒寒
2023-02-20
高盛反买,别墅靠海
抱歉,原内容已删除
暮雪寒寒
2021-03-25
$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$
大家猜猜看,开盘破几个点?只求别中了,明知道赔钱的打新,我还是第一次遇到[难过] [难过]
暮雪寒寒
2021-03-25
从来没有这么希望不要中签过[难过]
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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昨天晚上中概那么爆炸,今天就这?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266399423602792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625767976,"gmtCreate":1676864843296,"gmtModify":1676864845251,"author":{"id":"3466494169760674","authorId":"3466494169760674","name":"暮雪寒寒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3466494169760674","idStr":"3466494169760674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛反买,别墅靠海","listText":"高盛反买,别墅靠海","text":"高盛反买,别墅靠海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625767976","repostId":"1170663535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170663535","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1676858023,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170663535?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-20 09:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛不怕调整!预测中国股票指数今年还有24%涨幅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170663535","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>高盛预计,随着中国经济复苏推动企业盈利大幅增长,中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转,在年底前还有24%的增长空间。</blockquote><p>高盛认为中国股市在年底前还有24%的增长空间。</p><p>当地时间周一,高盛策略师 Kinger Lau 等在最新报告中表示,MSCI中国指数有可能在2023年底前达到85点,较当前水平再上涨约24%。中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转。</p><p>策略师们写道:</p><blockquote>(中国)股市的主要主题将逐渐从重新开放转向复苏,潜在收益的驱动力可能从多重扩张转向盈利增长或兑现。</blockquote><p>他们补充称,增长动力应主要倾向于消费经济,服务业的运行仍明显低于2019年疫情前的水平。</p><p>在2月10日,高盛经济学家 Joseph Briggs 和 Devesh Kodnani 就在最新报告中上调了中国经济增速预期,<b>预计2023年中国四个季度经济平均增速6.5%,显著高于去年11月底预测的5.5%。</b></p><p>高盛还认为,<b>中国经济加快恢复还将提振全球经济增长。到2023年年底,在中国经济加快恢复与内需复苏的推动下,全球经济将多增长1个百分点。</b></p><p>高盛在该报告中指出,中国经济将通过国内需求、国际旅行需求和大宗商品需求三个渠道为全球经济增长带来直接的积极影响。预计今年中国内需将增加5%,带动部分亚太地区经济体的GDP增速提升约0.4个百分点;中国对外服务需求逐渐复苏,尤其是出境旅游,将提振出游目的国经济;此外,中国经济加快恢复或提振国际大宗商品需求和价格。中国每天的石油需求可能会回升100万桶,或令布油价格每桶再上涨约15美元。</p><p>除了高盛外,多家外资机构此前纷纷看好中国的增长前景。</p><p>本月初,惠誉评级在修正后的预测中表示,2023年中国经济将增长5%,远高于去年12月预测的4.1%。惠誉 Brian Coulton 研究团队认为:“(中国)从新冠冲击中迅速反弹,意味着2023年上半年的经济活动要比我们预测的强。”</p><p>惠誉指出,上调预期是基于“消费和经济活动复苏速度快于最初预期的证据”,此外,中国最新的PMI数据显示,中国经济将进一步增长。</p><p>数据显示,自2022年11月7日以来,北向资金已经连续13周净流入A股。2023年1月16日至1月20日是净流入A股最多的一周,金额达到485.13亿元。从月度数据来看,2月以来,北向资金净流入A股83.54亿元,而1月净流入金额达1412.9亿元。这可以说是外资看好中国的最好证明。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛不怕调整!预测中国股票指数今年还有24%涨幅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2023-02-20 09:53 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛预计,随着中国经济复苏推动企业盈利大幅增长,中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转,在年底前还有24%的增长空间。高盛认为中国股市在年底前还有24%的增长空间。当地时间周一,高盛策略师 Kinger Lau 等在最新报告中表示,MSCI中国指数有可能在2023年底前达到85点,较当前水平再上涨约24%。中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转。策略师们写道:(中国)股市的主要主题将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170663535","content_text":"高盛预计,随着中国经济复苏推动企业盈利大幅增长,中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转,在年底前还有24%的增长空间。高盛认为中国股市在年底前还有24%的增长空间。当地时间周一,高盛策略师 Kinger Lau 等在最新报告中表示,MSCI中国指数有可能在2023年底前达到85点,较当前水平再上涨约24%。中国股市自1月下旬以来的下跌势头即将出现逆转。策略师们写道:(中国)股市的主要主题将逐渐从重新开放转向复苏,潜在收益的驱动力可能从多重扩张转向盈利增长或兑现。他们补充称,增长动力应主要倾向于消费经济,服务业的运行仍明显低于2019年疫情前的水平。在2月10日,高盛经济学家 Joseph Briggs 和 Devesh Kodnani 就在最新报告中上调了中国经济增速预期,预计2023年中国四个季度经济平均增速6.5%,显著高于去年11月底预测的5.5%。高盛还认为,中国经济加快恢复还将提振全球经济增长。到2023年年底,在中国经济加快恢复与内需复苏的推动下,全球经济将多增长1个百分点。高盛在该报告中指出,中国经济将通过国内需求、国际旅行需求和大宗商品需求三个渠道为全球经济增长带来直接的积极影响。预计今年中国内需将增加5%,带动部分亚太地区经济体的GDP增速提升约0.4个百分点;中国对外服务需求逐渐复苏,尤其是出境旅游,将提振出游目的国经济;此外,中国经济加快恢复或提振国际大宗商品需求和价格。中国每天的石油需求可能会回升100万桶,或令布油价格每桶再上涨约15美元。除了高盛外,多家外资机构此前纷纷看好中国的增长前景。本月初,惠誉评级在修正后的预测中表示,2023年中国经济将增长5%,远高于去年12月预测的4.1%。惠誉 Brian Coulton 研究团队认为:“(中国)从新冠冲击中迅速反弹,意味着2023年上半年的经济活动要比我们预测的强。”惠誉指出,上调预期是基于“消费和经济活动复苏速度快于最初预期的证据”,此外,中国最新的PMI数据显示,中国经济将进一步增长。数据显示,自2022年11月7日以来,北向资金已经连续13周净流入A股。2023年1月16日至1月20日是净流入A股最多的一周,金额达到485.13亿元。从月度数据来看,2月以来,北向资金净流入A股83.54亿元,而1月净流入金额达1412.9亿元。这可以说是外资看好中国的最好证明。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668585248,"gmtCreate":1664941339084,"gmtModify":1664943373266,"author":{"id":"3466494169760674","authorId":"3466494169760674","name":"暮雪寒寒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3466494169760674","idStr":"3466494169760674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等老A开盘就给你跌回来[白眼] ","listText":"等老A开盘就给你跌回来[白眼] ","text":"等老A开盘就给你跌回来[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668585248","repostId":"1169733015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169733015","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664934764,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169733015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 09:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169733015","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒指涨4.2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三,港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%,恒指涨4.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ff6da9effd7f6c6676fd1c49ff5557\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>涨超12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>涨超5%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>涨8%,其9月新能源汽车销量201,259辆,同比增加183.1%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-05 09:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三,港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%,恒指涨4.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ff6da9effd7f6c6676fd1c49ff5557\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>涨超12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>涨超5%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>涨8%,其9月新能源汽车销量201,259辆,同比增加183.1%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09caddfc0c2d2ea28b3db992baa72dbf","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169733015","content_text":"周三,港股迅速走高,恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至6%,恒指涨4.2%。哔哩哔哩-SW涨超12%,京东集团-SW涨超7%,网易-S、百度集团-SW涨超6%,阿里巴巴-SW涨超5%、腾讯控股涨超4%。比亚迪股份涨8%,其9月新能源汽车销量201,259辆,同比增加183.1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668622651,"gmtCreate":1664678860573,"gmtModify":1664678863434,"author":{"id":"3466494169760674","authorId":"3466494169760674","name":"暮雪寒寒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3466494169760674","idStr":"3466494169760674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这哪里是什么黑天鹅?这就是灰犀牛","listText":"这哪里是什么黑天鹅?这就是灰犀牛","text":"这哪里是什么黑天鹅?这就是灰犀牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668622651","repostId":"1153575084","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153575084","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯,最专业的解读分析,覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1664668272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153575084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-02 07:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储罕见警告,下一只\"黑天鹅\"逼近,什么情况?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153575084","media":"券商中国","summary":"华尔街的“多头”正经历绝望时刻。美股刚刚经历了一个动荡的9月,其中标普500指数、道指的月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,是2002年以来最惨的9月;标普年内跌幅达25%,跌幅已经排到了史上第三(193","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街的“多头”正经历绝望时刻。</p><p>美股刚刚经历了一个动荡的9月,其中标普500指数、道指的月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,是2002年以来最惨的9月;标普年内跌幅达25%,跌幅已经排到了史上第三(1931年以来),相比1月的高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿)。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻:散户投资者疯狂出逃,并史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权;对冲基金的股票敞口也降至历史最低。</p><p><b>美联储也开始紧张。当地时间9月30日,美联储副主席布雷纳德警告称,美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。另外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>警告称,当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点,如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点,美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。</b></p><p>值得警惕的是,欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”英国,即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。10月21日,全球三大评级机构中的标普、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>,将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。一旦信用评级遭下调,将对英国的外债形成巨大压力。</p><p><b>美股的惨烈9月</b></p><p>刚刚过去的9月,美股经历了惨烈一跌。</p><p>9月的最后一个交易日,美股三大指数再度集体重挫,标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数双双跌破6月低点,单月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,均创下2020年3月美国疫情暴发以来的最大月度跌幅,更是2002年以来最惨的9月,而纳斯达克指数单月跌幅更是达10.5%。</p><p>其实,整个第三季度,美股都笼罩在熊市阴霾之下,标普500指数季度跌幅达5.3%,为连续三个季度下滑,这是自2008 年金融危机以来最长的季度连跌。</p><p>若将时间周期继续拉长,2022年以来,标普累计跌幅已达到25%,跌幅已经排到史上第三(1931年以来),相比2022年1月的纪录高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿元)。</p><p>连续的暴跌之下,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻。即使是最乐观的美国散户投资者也开始出逃,同时花费创纪录的资金锁定保护性期权。</p><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>根据交易所公开数据测算,散户投资者在此前一周净抛售29亿美元股票,超过了6月中旬市场低谷的卖出股票数量的4倍,是过去五年以来的第二大单周抛售量。</p><p>此外,Sundial Capital Research编制的Options Clearing Corp的数据显示,由于对即将到来的市场崩盘忧心忡忡,美股的小资金群体上周史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权。</p><p>与此同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>追踪的对冲基金已将股票敞口削减至历史最低水平,连续第11个交易日增加针对ETF的空头头寸。基金经理的现金水平也接近历史高位,市场观望情绪愈发强烈。</p><p><b>面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,华尔街的“死多头”的信心也开始动摇。</b></p><p>号称华尔街最坚定的多头,摩根大通的策略分析师Marko Kolanovic悲观地强调,美联储政策失误和地缘政治升级的风险正在增加,使得2022年美股目标位面临下调风险。</p><p>而让多头更绝望的是,美股熊市的痛苦可能还未结束。</p><p>据美国媒体统计,在美国历史的几轮熊市中,20个月内美股平均跌幅达到39%,这意味着,当前美股仍存在19%的潜在下跌空间;而当前这轮熊市持续的时间为9个月,不足过去14轮熊市平均持续时间的50%。</p><p><b>美联储警告金融风险</b></p><p>当前,美股市场的投资者不得不思考的重要问题是,美联储的紧缩周期何时才会结束。</p><p>因为,美股过去的6轮熊市中,所有的底部都是美联储降息时形成的。但目前华尔街交易员们预计,在2023年4月之前,美联储利率可能不会见顶。</p><p>而刚刚出炉的通胀数据,也不容乐观,其中美联储最重视的通胀指标意外加速上行。</p><p>9月30日,美国商务部披露的最新数据显示,美国核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格)8月同比增长4.9%,高于预期的4.7%,前值为4.6%(上修至4.7%),同比增速创今年5月以来最高纪录;8月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.6%,高于预期的0.5%,前值0.1%(下修至0%),环比增速仍接近历史高位。</p><p>同时,美联储副主席布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)于当地时间9月30日再次强调称,不应过早撤除遏制高通胀的行动,要将较高的限制性利率保持一段时间。</p><p>这也意味着,美联储的加息风暴大概率仍将继续,未来何时结束,仍取决于美国的通胀数据。芝商所美联储观察工具显示,投资者目前预计美联储11月加息75个基点的概率为57%。</p><p>但面对全球金融市场动荡,美联储也开始紧张。布雷纳德30日的讲话大部分内容都涉及到,全球央行迅速加息可能带来的金融稳定风险。其进一步表示,美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。</p><p>华尔街机构则更为紧张,美国银行在最新的报告中警告称,当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点,如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点,美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。</p><p>美国银行的高收益债券策略团队认为,如果信用压力指标(CSI)达到75%以上的“临界区”,局面将变得失控,现在已经到了重视风险管理的时候。这意味着,在下一次议息会议上,美联储应当放缓加息步伐,之后应该暂停,以使经济能够完全适应已经实施的所有极端紧缩政策。</p><p><b>欧洲的下一只“黑天鹅”</b></p><p><b>当前,欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”——英国,即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。</b></p><p>10月21日,全球三大评级机构中的标普、穆迪,将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。若财政状况持续紧张,英国主权信用评级可能遭到下调。</p><p>而一旦信用评级遭下调,将对英国的外债形成巨大压力,外界向英国提供债务融资将面临“额外风险”,或将对英国经济前景造成冲击。</p><p>市场对这一次的信用评级非常担忧,因为标普已经率先发出了“警报信号”。当地时间9月30日,标普维持英国AA/A-1+主权评级,但将评级展望由“稳定”下调为“负面”。</p><p>标普表示,英国公布减税政策后,英国财政赤字将增加,财政失衡的风险上升。</p><p>标普估算,如果新减税政策继续实施,到2025年英国政府预算赤字与GDP的占比将扩大2.6个百分点,这将使当局很难实现降低公共债务占国民收入比例的雄心。</p><p>标普认为,英国经济将在未来几个季度陷入萎缩,明年GDP将下滑0.5%。</p><p>同时,穆迪已经将英国政府推出的50年来最大规模减税计划打上了“负面”标签。穆迪认为,这一举措将威胁到英国在投资者心目中的信誉,但穆迪尚未将英国评级展望下调为负面。</p><p>目前,穆迪对英国的主权评级为Aa3,惠誉是AA-,这二者为同一档,而标普对英国的信用评级为AA,比穆迪和惠誉高一档。</p><p><b>对于当前的英国而言,已是山雨欲来风满楼。</b></p><p>此前,激进的减税计划一度引发英国资本市场大地震,英国国债上演“大崩盘”,英镑暴跌刷新历史新低。为了避免更大的危机,英国央行不得不出手救市。</p><p>而刚上任不久的英国女首相特拉斯似乎正在失去大多数英国民众的支持。当地时间9月30日,英国舆观调查公司(YouGov)公布的民调显示,在接受调查的近5000名英国人中,约51%的人认为,特拉斯应该辞职,54%的人认为,英国财政大臣克沃滕应该辞职。</p><p>支持率大跌的重要原因之一便是,特拉斯政府刚刚出台的经济新政,其中包括,50年来最激进的减税政策,预计减税总额高达450亿英镑,以及大规模的能源支持计划,预计将在两年内花费超过1000亿英镑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储罕见警告,下一只\"黑天鹅\"逼近,什么情况?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-02 07:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街的“多头”正经历绝望时刻。</p><p>美股刚刚经历了一个动荡的9月,其中标普500指数、道指的月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,是2002年以来最惨的9月;标普年内跌幅达25%,跌幅已经排到了史上第三(1931年以来),相比1月的高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿)。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻:散户投资者疯狂出逃,并史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权;对冲基金的股票敞口也降至历史最低。</p><p><b>美联储也开始紧张。当地时间9月30日,美联储副主席布雷纳德警告称,美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。另外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>警告称,当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点,如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点,美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。</b></p><p>值得警惕的是,欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”英国,即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。10月21日,全球三大评级机构中的标普、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>,将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。一旦信用评级遭下调,将对英国的外债形成巨大压力。</p><p><b>美股的惨烈9月</b></p><p>刚刚过去的9月,美股经历了惨烈一跌。</p><p>9月的最后一个交易日,美股三大指数再度集体重挫,标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数双双跌破6月低点,单月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,均创下2020年3月美国疫情暴发以来的最大月度跌幅,更是2002年以来最惨的9月,而纳斯达克指数单月跌幅更是达10.5%。</p><p>其实,整个第三季度,美股都笼罩在熊市阴霾之下,标普500指数季度跌幅达5.3%,为连续三个季度下滑,这是自2008 年金融危机以来最长的季度连跌。</p><p>若将时间周期继续拉长,2022年以来,标普累计跌幅已达到25%,跌幅已经排到史上第三(1931年以来),相比2022年1月的纪录高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿元)。</p><p>连续的暴跌之下,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻。即使是最乐观的美国散户投资者也开始出逃,同时花费创纪录的资金锁定保护性期权。</p><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>根据交易所公开数据测算,散户投资者在此前一周净抛售29亿美元股票,超过了6月中旬市场低谷的卖出股票数量的4倍,是过去五年以来的第二大单周抛售量。</p><p>此外,Sundial Capital Research编制的Options Clearing Corp的数据显示,由于对即将到来的市场崩盘忧心忡忡,美股的小资金群体上周史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权。</p><p>与此同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>追踪的对冲基金已将股票敞口削减至历史最低水平,连续第11个交易日增加针对ETF的空头头寸。基金经理的现金水平也接近历史高位,市场观望情绪愈发强烈。</p><p><b>面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,华尔街的“死多头”的信心也开始动摇。</b></p><p>号称华尔街最坚定的多头,摩根大通的策略分析师Marko Kolanovic悲观地强调,美联储政策失误和地缘政治升级的风险正在增加,使得2022年美股目标位面临下调风险。</p><p>而让多头更绝望的是,美股熊市的痛苦可能还未结束。</p><p>据美国媒体统计,在美国历史的几轮熊市中,20个月内美股平均跌幅达到39%,这意味着,当前美股仍存在19%的潜在下跌空间;而当前这轮熊市持续的时间为9个月,不足过去14轮熊市平均持续时间的50%。</p><p><b>美联储警告金融风险</b></p><p>当前,美股市场的投资者不得不思考的重要问题是,美联储的紧缩周期何时才会结束。</p><p>因为,美股过去的6轮熊市中,所有的底部都是美联储降息时形成的。但目前华尔街交易员们预计,在2023年4月之前,美联储利率可能不会见顶。</p><p>而刚刚出炉的通胀数据,也不容乐观,其中美联储最重视的通胀指标意外加速上行。</p><p>9月30日,美国商务部披露的最新数据显示,美国核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格)8月同比增长4.9%,高于预期的4.7%,前值为4.6%(上修至4.7%),同比增速创今年5月以来最高纪录;8月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.6%,高于预期的0.5%,前值0.1%(下修至0%),环比增速仍接近历史高位。</p><p>同时,美联储副主席布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)于当地时间9月30日再次强调称,不应过早撤除遏制高通胀的行动,要将较高的限制性利率保持一段时间。</p><p>这也意味着,美联储的加息风暴大概率仍将继续,未来何时结束,仍取决于美国的通胀数据。芝商所美联储观察工具显示,投资者目前预计美联储11月加息75个基点的概率为57%。</p><p>但面对全球金融市场动荡,美联储也开始紧张。布雷纳德30日的讲话大部分内容都涉及到,全球央行迅速加息可能带来的金融稳定风险。其进一步表示,美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。</p><p>华尔街机构则更为紧张,美国银行在最新的报告中警告称,当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点,如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点,美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。</p><p>美国银行的高收益债券策略团队认为,如果信用压力指标(CSI)达到75%以上的“临界区”,局面将变得失控,现在已经到了重视风险管理的时候。这意味着,在下一次议息会议上,美联储应当放缓加息步伐,之后应该暂停,以使经济能够完全适应已经实施的所有极端紧缩政策。</p><p><b>欧洲的下一只“黑天鹅”</b></p><p><b>当前,欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”——英国,即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。</b></p><p>10月21日,全球三大评级机构中的标普、穆迪,将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。若财政状况持续紧张,英国主权信用评级可能遭到下调。</p><p>而一旦信用评级遭下调,将对英国的外债形成巨大压力,外界向英国提供债务融资将面临“额外风险”,或将对英国经济前景造成冲击。</p><p>市场对这一次的信用评级非常担忧,因为标普已经率先发出了“警报信号”。当地时间9月30日,标普维持英国AA/A-1+主权评级,但将评级展望由“稳定”下调为“负面”。</p><p>标普表示,英国公布减税政策后,英国财政赤字将增加,财政失衡的风险上升。</p><p>标普估算,如果新减税政策继续实施,到2025年英国政府预算赤字与GDP的占比将扩大2.6个百分点,这将使当局很难实现降低公共债务占国民收入比例的雄心。</p><p>标普认为,英国经济将在未来几个季度陷入萎缩,明年GDP将下滑0.5%。</p><p>同时,穆迪已经将英国政府推出的50年来最大规模减税计划打上了“负面”标签。穆迪认为,这一举措将威胁到英国在投资者心目中的信誉,但穆迪尚未将英国评级展望下调为负面。</p><p>目前,穆迪对英国的主权评级为Aa3,惠誉是AA-,这二者为同一档,而标普对英国的信用评级为AA,比穆迪和惠誉高一档。</p><p><b>对于当前的英国而言,已是山雨欲来风满楼。</b></p><p>此前,激进的减税计划一度引发英国资本市场大地震,英国国债上演“大崩盘”,英镑暴跌刷新历史新低。为了避免更大的危机,英国央行不得不出手救市。</p><p>而刚上任不久的英国女首相特拉斯似乎正在失去大多数英国民众的支持。当地时间9月30日,英国舆观调查公司(YouGov)公布的民调显示,在接受调查的近5000名英国人中,约51%的人认为,特拉斯应该辞职,54%的人认为,英国财政大臣克沃滕应该辞职。</p><p>支持率大跌的重要原因之一便是,特拉斯政府刚刚出台的经济新政,其中包括,50年来最激进的减税政策,预计减税总额高达450亿英镑,以及大规模的能源支持计划,预计将在两年内花费超过1000亿英镑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153575084","content_text":"华尔街的“多头”正经历绝望时刻。美股刚刚经历了一个动荡的9月,其中标普500指数、道指的月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,是2002年以来最惨的9月;标普年内跌幅达25%,跌幅已经排到了史上第三(1931年以来),相比1月的高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿)。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻:散户投资者疯狂出逃,并史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权;对冲基金的股票敞口也降至历史最低。美联储也开始紧张。当地时间9月30日,美联储副主席布雷纳德警告称,美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。另外,美国银行警告称,当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点,如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点,美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。值得警惕的是,欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”英国,即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。10月21日,全球三大评级机构中的标普、穆迪,将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。一旦信用评级遭下调,将对英国的外债形成巨大压力。美股的惨烈9月刚刚过去的9月,美股经历了惨烈一跌。9月的最后一个交易日,美股三大指数再度集体重挫,标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数双双跌破6月低点,单月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%,均创下2020年3月美国疫情暴发以来的最大月度跌幅,更是2002年以来最惨的9月,而纳斯达克指数单月跌幅更是达10.5%。其实,整个第三季度,美股都笼罩在熊市阴霾之下,标普500指数季度跌幅达5.3%,为连续三个季度下滑,这是自2008 年金融危机以来最长的季度连跌。若将时间周期继续拉长,2022年以来,标普累计跌幅已达到25%,跌幅已经排到史上第三(1931年以来),相比2022年1月的纪录高位,标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元(约合人民币71万亿元)。连续的暴跌之下,美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻。即使是最乐观的美国散户投资者也开始出逃,同时花费创纪录的资金锁定保护性期权。据摩根大通根据交易所公开数据测算,散户投资者在此前一周净抛售29亿美元股票,超过了6月中旬市场低谷的卖出股票数量的4倍,是过去五年以来的第二大单周抛售量。此外,Sundial Capital Research编制的Options Clearing Corp的数据显示,由于对即将到来的市场崩盘忧心忡忡,美股的小资金群体上周史无前例地花费了180亿美元(约合人民币1280亿元)买入看跌期权。与此同时,摩根士丹利追踪的对冲基金已将股票敞口削减至历史最低水平,连续第11个交易日增加针对ETF的空头头寸。基金经理的现金水平也接近历史高位,市场观望情绪愈发强烈。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮,华尔街的“死多头”的信心也开始动摇。号称华尔街最坚定的多头,摩根大通的策略分析师Marko Kolanovic悲观地强调,美联储政策失误和地缘政治升级的风险正在增加,使得2022年美股目标位面临下调风险。而让多头更绝望的是,美股熊市的痛苦可能还未结束。据美国媒体统计,在美国历史的几轮熊市中,20个月内美股平均跌幅达到39%,这意味着,当前美股仍存在19%的潜在下跌空间;而当前这轮熊市持续的时间为9个月,不足过去14轮熊市平均持续时间的50%。美联储警告金融风险当前,美股市场的投资者不得不思考的重要问题是,美联储的紧缩周期何时才会结束。因为,美股过去的6轮熊市中,所有的底部都是美联储降息时形成的。但目前华尔街交易员们预计,在2023年4月之前,美联储利率可能不会见顶。而刚刚出炉的通胀数据,也不容乐观,其中美联储最重视的通胀指标意外加速上行。9月30日,美国商务部披露的最新数据显示,美国核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格)8月同比增长4.9%,高于预期的4.7%,前值为4.6%(上修至4.7%),同比增速创今年5月以来最高纪录;8月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.6%,高于预期的0.5%,前值0.1%(下修至0%),环比增速仍接近历史高位。同时,美联储副主席布雷纳德(Lael 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07:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>,Tiktok所有者拒绝了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>对其美国业务的收购要约,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>成为Tiktok的唯一已知竞购者。</p><p>对此,微软发表官方声明表示:字节跳动今日告知我们,他们不会把TikTok的美国业务卖给微软。我们相信我们的提议将在保护国家安全利益的同时有利于TikTok用户。要做到这一点,我们必须做出重大改变,以确保服务符合安全、隐私、在线安全和打击虚假信息的最高标准,我们也在8月份的声明中明确了这些原则。期待看到Tiktok在美服务在这些重要领域的发展。</p><p></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69ef3b1aec8113369124281897bf70d6","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169000878","content_text":"据纽约时报,Tiktok所有者拒绝了微软对其美国业务的收购要约,甲骨文成为Tiktok的唯一已知竞购者。对此,微软发表官方声明表示:字节跳动今日告知我们,他们不会把TikTok的美国业务卖给微软。我们相信我们的提议将在保护国家安全利益的同时有利于TikTok用户。要做到这一点,我们必须做出重大改变,以确保服务符合安全、隐私、在线安全和打击虚假信息的最高标准,我们也在8月份的声明中明确了这些原则。期待看到Tiktok在美服务在这些重要领域的发展。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946795936,"gmtCreate":1595981483625,"gmtModify":1704210465870,"author":{"id":"3466494169760674","authorId":"3466494169760674","name":"暮雪寒寒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3466494169760674","idStr":"3466494169760674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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