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公众号豆豆says
价值投资逻辑先行
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公众号豆豆says
2020-01-03
$拼多多(PDD)$
这波趋势要创新高了,两周之内
公众号豆豆says
2019-12-13
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
有大户借资金实力讲故事,市场似乎不买账啊...麦当劳的消息明显是利空,证明假肉品牌不具备自带客流的能力,这一波故事讲完应该可以顺利下70了
公众号豆豆says
2019-12-10
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
70-75买入和减持都很顽强啊
公众号豆豆says
2019-12-04
$36氪(KRKR)$
这公司居然上市了.......价值在哪里谁能告诉我
公众号豆豆says
2019-12-04
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
听了我的朋友们应该高兴了吧。。目前看盘整还将持续一段时间,底还没有找到,下一季报前向下压力逐渐增加,60-65估计会踩一脚
公众号豆豆says
2019-11-08
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
心存幻想的人还是很多啊,横盘整理向下找底,过程还的持续一阵子
公众号豆豆says
2019-11-01
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
说了要整理一段时间
公众号豆豆says
2019-11-01
$拼多多(PDD)$
年底站上50了
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-30
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
到目前为止每一步的走势都预测正确,接下来会开启整理向下趋势直到找到一个实际合理的估值以观后效。大概在30-55这个区间应该能找到真的底
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-29
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
48小时后还有一轮血洗,这才报完全不行啊
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-26
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
估值实在太过了,财报救不了
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-19
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
100下周守不住了
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-18
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
今天为啥大跌?大单流出但是没有消息面,怪异
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-16
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
空军还没发起进攻自己就不行了....不过这公司也是精明,最高位套现+增发,不亏
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-15
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
跌破投行目标价,后面会迎来一批跟随下调评级的对股价再成打压,短期中期都不乐观啊,长期当然更不乐观了
公众号豆豆says
2019-10-11
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
颓势难改啊
公众号豆豆says
2019-09-26
$拼多多(PDD)$
发的转债票面利息0,转股价溢价35%,资本市场多头情绪非常浓烈啊
公众号豆豆says
2019-09-25
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
有朋友说都是拿美股挤泡沫说事,那我们就在展开一下,假肉最近一个月下跌9.5%,标普500上涨3%,如果看三个月,假肉下跌10%,标普上涨2.4%。从最高点回撤看,假肉跌43%标普跌2%,妥妥的独立行情,美股也没在挤泡沫?朋友们也要擦亮眼睛不要被想当然党胡说八道带了节奏了
公众号豆豆says
2019-09-24
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
之前就说过,假肉最大的雷是其虚假宣传的健康属性,对于所谓的socially responsible投资而言这将是无法忽视的道德问题,一刀戳爆不堪设想
公众号豆豆says
2019-09-24
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
短期要探135了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Inc.(BYND)$</a>短期要探135了","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$短期要探135了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939548169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":991338485,"gmtCreate":1564530574447,"gmtModify":1704707291758,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"其他人不会告诉你的秘密—无风险套利高波动妖股","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$</a> 这几天市场上最热的话题当数假肉公司Beyond Meat,上市后短短几个月股价翻了八倍,财报前一周更是再接再厉又涨35%,俨然美股社区和相关媒体最关心的网红。 一方面这是一个市场潜力巨大的公司,背靠环保、健康、消费品等诸多爆款概念,更有如比尔盖茨,小李子等各路名流背书助阵,一时间俨然马太效应的加速展现。 另一方面作为消费品和制造业假肉也不能无视引力,无论是生产线、分销、终端产品化都需要时间消化逐步提升,半年八倍的涨幅实在是让人如走钢丝,这也引发了空头的进攻,近一半流通股被做空的高比例下任何风吹草动都会进一步加大波动。 这样的妖孽一方面挑逗着投资人敏感的神经,一方面却又对投资人的操盘能力提出巨大的挑战。在这样的情况下大仓位正股做多无异于刀口舔血,做空则面对100%以上的高额利息及由于市场空仓太高,万一财报公布任何极端利好,利好+逼空造成的极端损失甚至爆仓。利用期权也有自己的问题,近200%的隐含波动率意味着极高的期权价格,一方面限制了回报比例,一方面还大大增加了财报后波动不够的双杀可能,事实上,在各大期权群里,假肉的期权双杀几乎就是这几天最热的讨论问题。 和大家一样,面对如此巨大的波动不操作我也实在忍不住,那么,怎么办呢? 在我看来,要打败巨大的隐含波动率,假肉财报前后的机会只能是比巨大更大的波动,聪明如你一定想到了这个凶险异常的词—逼空。只有在财报说服市场巨大利好(10%+)叠加空头平仓(额外的5%-10%)下期权才能提供足够的价值来打败高昂的权利金。但是,同时要考虑到假肉股价已是刀尖起舞千钧一发,任何不完美都可能被放大导致不涨反跌,相比较于获利,我更担心的是权利金的损失。于是我设计比较了如下的期权策略,让市场来资","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$</a> 这几天市场上最热的话题当数假肉公司Beyond Meat,上市后短短几个月股价翻了八倍,财报前一周更是再接再厉又涨35%,俨然美股社区和相关媒体最关心的网红。 一方面这是一个市场潜力巨大的公司,背靠环保、健康、消费品等诸多爆款概念,更有如比尔盖茨,小李子等各路名流背书助阵,一时间俨然马太效应的加速展现。 另一方面作为消费品和制造业假肉也不能无视引力,无论是生产线、分销、终端产品化都需要时间消化逐步提升,半年八倍的涨幅实在是让人如走钢丝,这也引发了空头的进攻,近一半流通股被做空的高比例下任何风吹草动都会进一步加大波动。 这样的妖孽一方面挑逗着投资人敏感的神经,一方面却又对投资人的操盘能力提出巨大的挑战。在这样的情况下大仓位正股做多无异于刀口舔血,做空则面对100%以上的高额利息及由于市场空仓太高,万一财报公布任何极端利好,利好+逼空造成的极端损失甚至爆仓。利用期权也有自己的问题,近200%的隐含波动率意味着极高的期权价格,一方面限制了回报比例,一方面还大大增加了财报后波动不够的双杀可能,事实上,在各大期权群里,假肉的期权双杀几乎就是这几天最热的讨论问题。 和大家一样,面对如此巨大的波动不操作我也实在忍不住,那么,怎么办呢? 在我看来,要打败巨大的隐含波动率,假肉财报前后的机会只能是比巨大更大的波动,聪明如你一定想到了这个凶险异常的词—逼空。只有在财报说服市场巨大利好(10%+)叠加空头平仓(额外的5%-10%)下期权才能提供足够的价值来打败高昂的权利金。但是,同时要考虑到假肉股价已是刀尖起舞千钧一发,任何不完美都可能被放大导致不涨反跌,相比较于获利,我更担心的是权利金的损失。于是我设计比较了如下的期权策略,让市场来资","text":"$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 这几天市场上最热的话题当数假肉公司Beyond Meat,上市后短短几个月股价翻了八倍,财报前一周更是再接再厉又涨35%,俨然美股社区和相关媒体最关心的网红。 一方面这是一个市场潜力巨大的公司,背靠环保、健康、消费品等诸多爆款概念,更有如比尔盖茨,小李子等各路名流背书助阵,一时间俨然马太效应的加速展现。 另一方面作为消费品和制造业假肉也不能无视引力,无论是生产线、分销、终端产品化都需要时间消化逐步提升,半年八倍的涨幅实在是让人如走钢丝,这也引发了空头的进攻,近一半流通股被做空的高比例下任何风吹草动都会进一步加大波动。 这样的妖孽一方面挑逗着投资人敏感的神经,一方面却又对投资人的操盘能力提出巨大的挑战。在这样的情况下大仓位正股做多无异于刀口舔血,做空则面对100%以上的高额利息及由于市场空仓太高,万一财报公布任何极端利好,利好+逼空造成的极端损失甚至爆仓。利用期权也有自己的问题,近200%的隐含波动率意味着极高的期权价格,一方面限制了回报比例,一方面还大大增加了财报后波动不够的双杀可能,事实上,在各大期权群里,假肉的期权双杀几乎就是这几天最热的讨论问题。 和大家一样,面对如此巨大的波动不操作我也实在忍不住,那么,怎么办呢? 在我看来,要打败巨大的隐含波动率,假肉财报前后的机会只能是比巨大更大的波动,聪明如你一定想到了这个凶险异常的词—逼空。只有在财报说服市场巨大利好(10%+)叠加空头平仓(额外的5%-10%)下期权才能提供足够的价值来打败高昂的权利金。但是,同时要考虑到假肉股价已是刀尖起舞千钧一发,任何不完美都可能被放大导致不涨反跌,相比较于获利,我更担心的是权利金的损失。于是我设计比较了如下的期权策略,让市场来资","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ba48509950c7d7e174e1900081748ca"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcf1d6e423852c850d1b59378ef3a55"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b4039b8ad454bc9092bfb486175902"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991338485","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501971355934127","authorId":"3501971355934127","name":"美股圈种草","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6296fdae1de7030633144e8afc6e30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501971355934127","authorIdStr":"3501971355934127"},"content":"我用的同一个策略,long 230 call, short 280 call x 2. 大暴涨的话开始亏的点位大约在320,觉得妖股涨不到这个数字。但是你做三个short,对妖股来说实在太危险了,虽然能让反方向无损失甚至小盈利,但大暴涨分分钟让你爆毙破产。","text":"我用的同一个策略,long 230 call, short 280 call x 2. 大暴涨的话开始亏的点位大约在320,觉得妖股涨不到这个数字。但是你做三个short,对妖股来说实在太危险了,虽然能让反方向无损失甚至小盈利,但大暴涨分分钟让你爆毙破产。","html":"我用的同一个策略,long 230 call, short 280 call x 2. 大暴涨的话开始亏的点位大约在320,觉得妖股涨不到这个数字。但是你做三个short,对妖股来说实在太危险了,虽然能让反方向无损失甚至小盈利,但大暴涨分分钟让你爆毙破产。"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991681351,"gmtCreate":1564725452173,"gmtModify":1704707723077,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"美联储分析师为你解读本次降息和市场反馈","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 熟悉我的朋友可能已经知道,我的金融圈职场第一站是在美联储,这个掌握着全世界最强大的政策武器之一的机构一直弥漫着神秘的光晕,而近距离的接触让我得以用更贴近关注根源的视角解读市场对联储政策的关注点。8.1号的降息决定正式为本轮短暂的加息周期画上了句号,25个bp的规模符合市场一致预期,但是在决定宣布后的一个多小时的时间里美股主要指数却不合预期般的上窜下跳,市场到底在降息决策中嗅到了什么令人不喜的味道?以下,enjoy: 本次的降息决议和随后引起更大动荡的发布会总结下来有以下几个点值得投资人朋友们密切关注,首先,最简单也最重要的动作是定位市场一度大跌的诱因,在25个bps的降息决策公布后市场虽然走低,但幅度并不大,真正开始转头直下是在主席Powell先生表示本次降息并不代表接下来会走向宽松开启连续降息,这一表述大大打击了市场对美联储持续发糖的期望,也是市场反应的直接诱因。随后不久Powell在后续的问答中进一步澄清自己的意思,表示本次降息是一次中期政策调整而不是长期的降息周期,但这并不意味着25bps就是本轮降息的终点,但是同样的,也,后续的政策走向将极大的依赖于数据和事件的发展。这个表述部分缓解了市场的焦虑,整体市场随后反弹出最低点。基于这一表述在市场上引起的巨大关注,Powell在记者会结束后进一步澄清,说明自己的话,并不代表未来不会有进一步的降息行为,仅仅是说明本次","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 熟悉我的朋友可能已经知道,我的金融圈职场第一站是在美联储,这个掌握着全世界最强大的政策武器之一的机构一直弥漫着神秘的光晕,而近距离的接触让我得以用更贴近关注根源的视角解读市场对联储政策的关注点。8.1号的降息决定正式为本轮短暂的加息周期画上了句号,25个bp的规模符合市场一致预期,但是在决定宣布后的一个多小时的时间里美股主要指数却不合预期般的上窜下跳,市场到底在降息决策中嗅到了什么令人不喜的味道?以下,enjoy: 本次的降息决议和随后引起更大动荡的发布会总结下来有以下几个点值得投资人朋友们密切关注,首先,最简单也最重要的动作是定位市场一度大跌的诱因,在25个bps的降息决策公布后市场虽然走低,但幅度并不大,真正开始转头直下是在主席Powell先生表示本次降息并不代表接下来会走向宽松开启连续降息,这一表述大大打击了市场对美联储持续发糖的期望,也是市场反应的直接诱因。随后不久Powell在后续的问答中进一步澄清自己的意思,表示本次降息是一次中期政策调整而不是长期的降息周期,但这并不意味着25bps就是本轮降息的终点,但是同样的,也,后续的政策走向将极大的依赖于数据和事件的发展。这个表述部分缓解了市场的焦虑,整体市场随后反弹出最低点。基于这一表述在市场上引起的巨大关注,Powell在记者会结束后进一步澄清,说明自己的话,并不代表未来不会有进一步的降息行为,仅仅是说明本次","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 熟悉我的朋友可能已经知道,我的金融圈职场第一站是在美联储,这个掌握着全世界最强大的政策武器之一的机构一直弥漫着神秘的光晕,而近距离的接触让我得以用更贴近关注根源的视角解读市场对联储政策的关注点。8.1号的降息决定正式为本轮短暂的加息周期画上了句号,25个bp的规模符合市场一致预期,但是在决定宣布后的一个多小时的时间里美股主要指数却不合预期般的上窜下跳,市场到底在降息决策中嗅到了什么令人不喜的味道?以下,enjoy: 本次的降息决议和随后引起更大动荡的发布会总结下来有以下几个点值得投资人朋友们密切关注,首先,最简单也最重要的动作是定位市场一度大跌的诱因,在25个bps的降息决策公布后市场虽然走低,但幅度并不大,真正开始转头直下是在主席Powell先生表示本次降息并不代表接下来会走向宽松开启连续降息,这一表述大大打击了市场对美联储持续发糖的期望,也是市场反应的直接诱因。随后不久Powell在后续的问答中进一步澄清自己的意思,表示本次降息是一次中期政策调整而不是长期的降息周期,但这并不意味着25bps就是本轮降息的终点,但是同样的,也,后续的政策走向将极大的依赖于数据和事件的发展。这个表述部分缓解了市场的焦虑,整体市场随后反弹出最低点。基于这一表述在市场上引起的巨大关注,Powell在记者会结束后进一步澄清,说明自己的话,并不代表未来不会有进一步的降息行为,仅仅是说明本次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":48,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991681351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521037627077998","authorId":"3521037627077998","name":"Beckybecky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d53307dbede2651680d24ca9219f37","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3521037627077998","authorIdStr":"3521037627077998"},"content":"真的很好奇美国人民是不是都不买股票基金指数等等,也不做贸易生意。可能他们都没钱买。推特上美国人对川普都是一致高度的表扬。不过川普又作死要搞移民政策,他们才慌了。","text":"真的很好奇美国人民是不是都不买股票基金指数等等,也不做贸易生意。可能他们都没钱买。推特上美国人对川普都是一致高度的表扬。不过川普又作死要搞移民政策,他们才慌了。","html":"真的很好奇美国人民是不是都不买股票基金指数等等,也不做贸易生意。可能他们都没钱买。推特上美国人对川普都是一致高度的表扬。不过川普又作死要搞移民政策,他们才慌了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":73216,"gmtCreate":1499692417374,"gmtModify":1704878667245,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"农药依然荣耀,腾讯也还是你大爷","htmlText":"中国自古就有一种朴素的智慧叫做木秀于林,风必摧之,或者叫枪打出头鸟,在这次的风波中,枪打出头企鹅,日收破亿的现象级游戏“王者荣耀”最近无疑占尽了风波。先是在行政干预下上线高强制性的防沉迷系统,12岁以下的玩家强制每天游戏时间不得超过1小时,随后又被“人民网”连续点名,洪水猛兽,玩物丧志的指责劈头盖脸,让人难免生出过去十几年中国社会对于游戏的看法,对于时代进步的接受毫无寸进之感。以事实论,人的一生面对的诱惑何其之多,挑选树立一个“公敌”对之横加指责当然简单快意,但到底能起什么作用实在是让人质疑。当然,如此密集的负面 PR 也传导到了资本市场,腾讯股价应声而跌,一时间人心惶惶,光看媒体的密集报道还以为崩盘在即大厦将倾。那么,今天我们就来一起看看,怎么从价值投资的角度来解读腾讯,和负面 PR 对其的短期和长期影响。 腾讯于近日遭“卫道士”狙击,股价也随之收到暴击 最新的财务数据显示,2017年第一季度,腾讯的总收入495.52亿人民币,同比增长55%;盈利为192.72亿人民币,同比增长44%,作为中国科技业两极之一,其增长和后劲不可谓不足。而从构成看,其2016年的收入结构如下: 从上图我们可以明显的看到,腾讯的变现在现阶段强烈依赖游戏,且在可见的将来,随着爆款“王者荣耀”游戏本身在国内市场的增长及其即将进入海外市场的潜力,这部分的依赖还会进一步增强。在游戏上的成功一方面是其强大的产品传统,另一方面也离不开腾讯在游戏全产业链的能力,而后者,在某种意义上保证了其游戏收入的持续优势,“王者荣耀”只是一个表象,其承载的是腾讯在游戏界持续打造爆款的能力,因此今天很多所谓的腾讯收入高度依赖“王者荣耀”因而带来隐患的说辞都是业余者的意淫,在实际生活中并不会真的发生。 从上图也可以很明显看出,腾讯围绕游戏的核心能力快速健康成长,而在游戏业务大杀四方的2016年,“王者荣耀”收入为68亿元,仅","listText":"中国自古就有一种朴素的智慧叫做木秀于林,风必摧之,或者叫枪打出头鸟,在这次的风波中,枪打出头企鹅,日收破亿的现象级游戏“王者荣耀”最近无疑占尽了风波。先是在行政干预下上线高强制性的防沉迷系统,12岁以下的玩家强制每天游戏时间不得超过1小时,随后又被“人民网”连续点名,洪水猛兽,玩物丧志的指责劈头盖脸,让人难免生出过去十几年中国社会对于游戏的看法,对于时代进步的接受毫无寸进之感。以事实论,人的一生面对的诱惑何其之多,挑选树立一个“公敌”对之横加指责当然简单快意,但到底能起什么作用实在是让人质疑。当然,如此密集的负面 PR 也传导到了资本市场,腾讯股价应声而跌,一时间人心惶惶,光看媒体的密集报道还以为崩盘在即大厦将倾。那么,今天我们就来一起看看,怎么从价值投资的角度来解读腾讯,和负面 PR 对其的短期和长期影响。 腾讯于近日遭“卫道士”狙击,股价也随之收到暴击 最新的财务数据显示,2017年第一季度,腾讯的总收入495.52亿人民币,同比增长55%;盈利为192.72亿人民币,同比增长44%,作为中国科技业两极之一,其增长和后劲不可谓不足。而从构成看,其2016年的收入结构如下: 从上图我们可以明显的看到,腾讯的变现在现阶段强烈依赖游戏,且在可见的将来,随着爆款“王者荣耀”游戏本身在国内市场的增长及其即将进入海外市场的潜力,这部分的依赖还会进一步增强。在游戏上的成功一方面是其强大的产品传统,另一方面也离不开腾讯在游戏全产业链的能力,而后者,在某种意义上保证了其游戏收入的持续优势,“王者荣耀”只是一个表象,其承载的是腾讯在游戏界持续打造爆款的能力,因此今天很多所谓的腾讯收入高度依赖“王者荣耀”因而带来隐患的说辞都是业余者的意淫,在实际生活中并不会真的发生。 从上图也可以很明显看出,腾讯围绕游戏的核心能力快速健康成长,而在游戏业务大杀四方的2016年,“王者荣耀”收入为68亿元,仅","text":"中国自古就有一种朴素的智慧叫做木秀于林,风必摧之,或者叫枪打出头鸟,在这次的风波中,枪打出头企鹅,日收破亿的现象级游戏“王者荣耀”最近无疑占尽了风波。先是在行政干预下上线高强制性的防沉迷系统,12岁以下的玩家强制每天游戏时间不得超过1小时,随后又被“人民网”连续点名,洪水猛兽,玩物丧志的指责劈头盖脸,让人难免生出过去十几年中国社会对于游戏的看法,对于时代进步的接受毫无寸进之感。以事实论,人的一生面对的诱惑何其之多,挑选树立一个“公敌”对之横加指责当然简单快意,但到底能起什么作用实在是让人质疑。当然,如此密集的负面 PR 也传导到了资本市场,腾讯股价应声而跌,一时间人心惶惶,光看媒体的密集报道还以为崩盘在即大厦将倾。那么,今天我们就来一起看看,怎么从价值投资的角度来解读腾讯,和负面 PR 对其的短期和长期影响。 腾讯于近日遭“卫道士”狙击,股价也随之收到暴击 最新的财务数据显示,2017年第一季度,腾讯的总收入495.52亿人民币,同比增长55%;盈利为192.72亿人民币,同比增长44%,作为中国科技业两极之一,其增长和后劲不可谓不足。而从构成看,其2016年的收入结构如下: 从上图我们可以明显的看到,腾讯的变现在现阶段强烈依赖游戏,且在可见的将来,随着爆款“王者荣耀”游戏本身在国内市场的增长及其即将进入海外市场的潜力,这部分的依赖还会进一步增强。在游戏上的成功一方面是其强大的产品传统,另一方面也离不开腾讯在游戏全产业链的能力,而后者,在某种意义上保证了其游戏收入的持续优势,“王者荣耀”只是一个表象,其承载的是腾讯在游戏界持续打造爆款的能力,因此今天很多所谓的腾讯收入高度依赖“王者荣耀”因而带来隐患的说辞都是业余者的意淫,在实际生活中并不会真的发生。 从上图也可以很明显看出,腾讯围绕游戏的核心能力快速健康成长,而在游戏业务大杀四方的2016年,“王者荣耀”收入为68亿元,仅","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/fb7cd4c2c07acd9c40bc786b2a7b4f12"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/2be23dd11d3e3b97cadc2e429b3c523c"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/3db81e19360cccc45d27a863c3f2a1fb"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/73216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"53965052711480","authorId":"53965052711480","name":"Athena","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d07617fb58c5b67ef16f84da54e47321","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"53965052711480","authorIdStr":"53965052711480"},"content":"期待腾讯的下一个农药出来,就又可以涨一波了!","text":"期待腾讯的下一个农药出来,就又可以涨一波了!","html":"期待腾讯的下一个农药出来,就又可以涨一波了!"}],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992647650,"gmtCreate":1565311168870,"gmtModify":1704712352060,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"巨人再度起舞,正向解读迪士尼的流媒体机会","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a> 熟悉我的朋友应该都知道,由于离行业比较近,一线接触好莱坞的挥金如土以及对投资者的资本金不负责任的各种奇葩招数,叠加电影电视行业的高风险高投资的特性,影视行业典型的从业人员爽上天,投资人亏的欲哭无泪的败家行业,我对于该行业的投资一向是比较谨慎,甚至可以说是厌恶的,而且行业的这一属性只要所谓的talent(包括演员、导演、编剧、制片人等等等等)依然拥有高溢价就不可能改变。在这里面只有一个潜在的例外,House of the Mouse,迪士尼。 迪士尼是我早几年推荐的娱乐业科技升级潜在受益者持仓股之一,但是一直以来表现平平,仅靠还算稳定的分红勉强度日,应该是整个推荐的十来只股票中表现最差的一个。当时大张旗鼓的展望的,或者说其实也在重点发展的几个大的科技改造未来娱乐的方向,如VR,都没能真正带来有意义的收入,就算是直到今天,也不过跟当时比上涨了30%多40%,跟推荐中其他动辄翻倍甚至两三倍的比较,实在是差强人意。虽然是行业的毋庸置疑的王者。拥有最大的品牌溢价,但是基于行业固有的傲慢与偏见,以及大企业的一些通病,虽然在主业的内容产业依然势如破竹,亮点多多,但是作为一个公司整体,迪士尼在公司层面的表现,面向未来不足,针对街上对其固有的一些偏见也没有有效的应对,于是在美股过去这一段时间的大牛市中,并没有什么太突出的表现,估值作为行业龙头来说也乏善可陈,一直在低十几倍区间。 我们先来看一下迪斯尼最新财报中公布的收入分布: 1. Media Networks 本季度收入67.15亿,较去年同期上涨21%,运营利润率31.8%,这是迪士尼拥有的电视频道,包括ESPN和ABC等最美国最知名的频道。该部分占公司总收入的33","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a> 熟悉我的朋友应该都知道,由于离行业比较近,一线接触好莱坞的挥金如土以及对投资者的资本金不负责任的各种奇葩招数,叠加电影电视行业的高风险高投资的特性,影视行业典型的从业人员爽上天,投资人亏的欲哭无泪的败家行业,我对于该行业的投资一向是比较谨慎,甚至可以说是厌恶的,而且行业的这一属性只要所谓的talent(包括演员、导演、编剧、制片人等等等等)依然拥有高溢价就不可能改变。在这里面只有一个潜在的例外,House of the Mouse,迪士尼。 迪士尼是我早几年推荐的娱乐业科技升级潜在受益者持仓股之一,但是一直以来表现平平,仅靠还算稳定的分红勉强度日,应该是整个推荐的十来只股票中表现最差的一个。当时大张旗鼓的展望的,或者说其实也在重点发展的几个大的科技改造未来娱乐的方向,如VR,都没能真正带来有意义的收入,就算是直到今天,也不过跟当时比上涨了30%多40%,跟推荐中其他动辄翻倍甚至两三倍的比较,实在是差强人意。虽然是行业的毋庸置疑的王者。拥有最大的品牌溢价,但是基于行业固有的傲慢与偏见,以及大企业的一些通病,虽然在主业的内容产业依然势如破竹,亮点多多,但是作为一个公司整体,迪士尼在公司层面的表现,面向未来不足,针对街上对其固有的一些偏见也没有有效的应对,于是在美股过去这一段时间的大牛市中,并没有什么太突出的表现,估值作为行业龙头来说也乏善可陈,一直在低十几倍区间。 我们先来看一下迪斯尼最新财报中公布的收入分布: 1. Media Networks 本季度收入67.15亿,较去年同期上涨21%,运营利润率31.8%,这是迪士尼拥有的电视频道,包括ESPN和ABC等最美国最知名的频道。该部分占公司总收入的33","text":"$迪士尼(DIS)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ 熟悉我的朋友应该都知道,由于离行业比较近,一线接触好莱坞的挥金如土以及对投资者的资本金不负责任的各种奇葩招数,叠加电影电视行业的高风险高投资的特性,影视行业典型的从业人员爽上天,投资人亏的欲哭无泪的败家行业,我对于该行业的投资一向是比较谨慎,甚至可以说是厌恶的,而且行业的这一属性只要所谓的talent(包括演员、导演、编剧、制片人等等等等)依然拥有高溢价就不可能改变。在这里面只有一个潜在的例外,House of the Mouse,迪士尼。 迪士尼是我早几年推荐的娱乐业科技升级潜在受益者持仓股之一,但是一直以来表现平平,仅靠还算稳定的分红勉强度日,应该是整个推荐的十来只股票中表现最差的一个。当时大张旗鼓的展望的,或者说其实也在重点发展的几个大的科技改造未来娱乐的方向,如VR,都没能真正带来有意义的收入,就算是直到今天,也不过跟当时比上涨了30%多40%,跟推荐中其他动辄翻倍甚至两三倍的比较,实在是差强人意。虽然是行业的毋庸置疑的王者。拥有最大的品牌溢价,但是基于行业固有的傲慢与偏见,以及大企业的一些通病,虽然在主业的内容产业依然势如破竹,亮点多多,但是作为一个公司整体,迪士尼在公司层面的表现,面向未来不足,针对街上对其固有的一些偏见也没有有效的应对,于是在美股过去这一段时间的大牛市中,并没有什么太突出的表现,估值作为行业龙头来说也乏善可陈,一直在低十几倍区间。 我们先来看一下迪斯尼最新财报中公布的收入分布: 1. Media Networks 本季度收入67.15亿,较去年同期上涨21%,运营利润率31.8%,这是迪士尼拥有的电视频道,包括ESPN和ABC等最美国最知名的频道。该部分占公司总收入的33","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e79d86bf3c5f0ec8927d016bc6f546"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992647650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520857419372115","authorId":"3520857419372115","name":"喝红牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3520857419372115","authorIdStr":"3520857419372115"},"content":"这篇文章确实写得好,讲思路配合领大纲的数据,细节又很容易通过其他渠道在自己研究学习的过程中核实,可以让注意力集中在重要的东西上面,赞","text":"这篇文章确实写得好,讲思路配合领大纲的数据,细节又很容易通过其他渠道在自己研究学习的过程中核实,可以让注意力集中在重要的东西上面,赞","html":"这篇文章确实写得好,讲思路配合领大纲的数据,细节又很容易通过其他渠道在自己研究学习的过程中核实,可以让注意力集中在重要的东西上面,赞"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995269799,"gmtCreate":1566166828411,"gmtModify":1704713745394,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"斩获优势胜率,没有人会告诉你的量化期权应用","htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ 量化投资一直以来被赋予了各种神秘色彩和光环,似乎离普通投资人非常遥远。诚然,复杂的计量方法和数据挖掘确实需要特别的能力和资源,但量化方法本身在我看来其实更多的是一个大工具箱,其中也有如锤子和扳手一样的实惠工具。 最近一直收到要求希望能多讲一讲期权的进阶应用,一直在犹豫怎么才能用更简洁的展示方式来陈述,刚好近期针对财报期间期权应用有一例精彩的实战,以下,enjoy: 有阅读我近几篇期权系列的读者应该有一个明显的感觉,我对于以简单的long call/put的方式赌财报的行为是比较谨慎的,特别是在财报发布当周过期的所谓末日期权更是如此。主要原因在于这类期权的价格构成中波动溢价较高,很容易出现所谓的双杀现象,即财报公布后的涨跌幅度不够导致期权价格变动幅度不够覆盖购买时支付溢价的情况。之前多次介绍的期权组合案例即是应对这一情况的手段之一,而今天我们要介绍的,是用量化中的pair概念来在特定期权交易中获取更佳的胜率。 NVDA英伟达在8.15盘后发布财报,基于对行业的观察和判断我认为本季度整体半导体行业需求有触底反弹的趋势,于是乎蠢蠢欲动,开仓如下: 眼尖的朋友可能马上要骂,你怕不是来搞笑的吧,赌英伟达财报你买成amd了,该不是眼瞎?自然不是,这正是本篇的核心策略,高相关性pair的替代策略。 首先说逻辑: 1. 财报前购买末日期权权利金溢价高,需要巨幅波动补偿才能覆盖成本开始盈利,因此胜率低,所以寻求替代产品进行交易; 2. 虽然互为竞争对手,但AMD与NVDA的一般走势相关度虽然仅为0.4,但特殊相关度高达0.8+; 3. 近期半导体行业的整体走势主要受行业整体需求面预期影响,英伟达作为业内主要玩家之一,财报对该基本面会影响行业性判断; 4. AMD的平均波动为NVDA 1.5倍以上;","listText":"$AMD(AMD)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ 量化投资一直以来被赋予了各种神秘色彩和光环,似乎离普通投资人非常遥远。诚然,复杂的计量方法和数据挖掘确实需要特别的能力和资源,但量化方法本身在我看来其实更多的是一个大工具箱,其中也有如锤子和扳手一样的实惠工具。 最近一直收到要求希望能多讲一讲期权的进阶应用,一直在犹豫怎么才能用更简洁的展示方式来陈述,刚好近期针对财报期间期权应用有一例精彩的实战,以下,enjoy: 有阅读我近几篇期权系列的读者应该有一个明显的感觉,我对于以简单的long call/put的方式赌财报的行为是比较谨慎的,特别是在财报发布当周过期的所谓末日期权更是如此。主要原因在于这类期权的价格构成中波动溢价较高,很容易出现所谓的双杀现象,即财报公布后的涨跌幅度不够导致期权价格变动幅度不够覆盖购买时支付溢价的情况。之前多次介绍的期权组合案例即是应对这一情况的手段之一,而今天我们要介绍的,是用量化中的pair概念来在特定期权交易中获取更佳的胜率。 NVDA英伟达在8.15盘后发布财报,基于对行业的观察和判断我认为本季度整体半导体行业需求有触底反弹的趋势,于是乎蠢蠢欲动,开仓如下: 眼尖的朋友可能马上要骂,你怕不是来搞笑的吧,赌英伟达财报你买成amd了,该不是眼瞎?自然不是,这正是本篇的核心策略,高相关性pair的替代策略。 首先说逻辑: 1. 财报前购买末日期权权利金溢价高,需要巨幅波动补偿才能覆盖成本开始盈利,因此胜率低,所以寻求替代产品进行交易; 2. 虽然互为竞争对手,但AMD与NVDA的一般走势相关度虽然仅为0.4,但特殊相关度高达0.8+; 3. 近期半导体行业的整体走势主要受行业整体需求面预期影响,英伟达作为业内主要玩家之一,财报对该基本面会影响行业性判断; 4. AMD的平均波动为NVDA 1.5倍以上;","text":"$AMD(AMD)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ 量化投资一直以来被赋予了各种神秘色彩和光环,似乎离普通投资人非常遥远。诚然,复杂的计量方法和数据挖掘确实需要特别的能力和资源,但量化方法本身在我看来其实更多的是一个大工具箱,其中也有如锤子和扳手一样的实惠工具。 最近一直收到要求希望能多讲一讲期权的进阶应用,一直在犹豫怎么才能用更简洁的展示方式来陈述,刚好近期针对财报期间期权应用有一例精彩的实战,以下,enjoy: 有阅读我近几篇期权系列的读者应该有一个明显的感觉,我对于以简单的long call/put的方式赌财报的行为是比较谨慎的,特别是在财报发布当周过期的所谓末日期权更是如此。主要原因在于这类期权的价格构成中波动溢价较高,很容易出现所谓的双杀现象,即财报公布后的涨跌幅度不够导致期权价格变动幅度不够覆盖购买时支付溢价的情况。之前多次介绍的期权组合案例即是应对这一情况的手段之一,而今天我们要介绍的,是用量化中的pair概念来在特定期权交易中获取更佳的胜率。 NVDA英伟达在8.15盘后发布财报,基于对行业的观察和判断我认为本季度整体半导体行业需求有触底反弹的趋势,于是乎蠢蠢欲动,开仓如下: 眼尖的朋友可能马上要骂,你怕不是来搞笑的吧,赌英伟达财报你买成amd了,该不是眼瞎?自然不是,这正是本篇的核心策略,高相关性pair的替代策略。 首先说逻辑: 1. 财报前购买末日期权权利金溢价高,需要巨幅波动补偿才能覆盖成本开始盈利,因此胜率低,所以寻求替代产品进行交易; 2. 虽然互为竞争对手,但AMD与NVDA的一般走势相关度虽然仅为0.4,但特殊相关度高达0.8+; 3. 近期半导体行业的整体走势主要受行业整体需求面预期影响,英伟达作为业内主要玩家之一,财报对该基本面会影响行业性判断; 4. AMD的平均波动为NVDA 1.5倍以上;","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02487b8cd7bb315970b3569ac5ba050c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7882ee72eb1ed0b9d1eab9bfe4aca35"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8baa3f9548c4d221e277832045ee263e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995269799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520857419372115","authorId":"3520857419372115","name":"喝红牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3520857419372115","authorIdStr":"3520857419372115"},"content":"好吧在这里问了,请问文中提到的特殊相关度是什么?","text":"好吧在这里问了,请问文中提到的特殊相关度是什么?","html":"好吧在这里问了,请问文中提到的特殊相关度是什么?"}],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":936451867,"gmtCreate":1572379014159,"gmtModify":1704724186351,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>到目前为止每一步的走势都预测正确,接下来会开启整理向下趋势直到找到一个实际合理的估值以观后效。大概在30-55这个区间应该能找到真的底","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>到目前为止每一步的走势都预测正确,接下来会开启整理向下趋势直到找到一个实际合理的估值以观后效。大概在30-55这个区间应该能找到真的底","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$到目前为止每一步的走势都预测正确,接下来会开启整理向下趋势直到找到一个实际合理的估值以观后效。大概在30-55这个区间应该能找到真的底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/936451867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522765397454305","authorId":"3522765397454305","name":"爱情骗子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94d22fa16965f50ff0a32c688f3f67e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522765397454305","authorIdStr":"3522765397454305"},"content":"我预计跟你差不多40—50是合理价位,一个食品公司不该有科技股的估值,就算它很像科技公司","text":"我预计跟你差不多40—50是合理价位,一个食品公司不该有科技股的估值,就算它很像科技公司","html":"我预计跟你差不多40—50是合理价位,一个食品公司不该有科技股的估值,就算它很像科技公司"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904907094,"gmtCreate":1560783299018,"gmtModify":1704700703474,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 180没买情有可原,170还没买真的只能怪自己了,哎","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 180没买情有可原,170还没买真的只能怪自己了,哎","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 180没买情有可原,170还没买真的只能怪自己了,哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/904907094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3496878288525475","authorId":"3496878288525475","name":"第二菠萝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03722ff323946efa4777581ca88739","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3496878288525475","authorIdStr":"3496878288525475"},"content":"啥时候170了[捂脸]","text":"啥时候170了[捂脸]","html":"啥时候170了[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":936892916,"gmtCreate":1572024046435,"gmtModify":1704723606224,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>估值实在太过了,财报救不了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>估值实在太过了,财报救不了","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$估值实在太过了,财报救不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/936892916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518802811292171","authorId":"3518802811292171","name":"Vestmint","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37795d77bdc111f3d21451332761965","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518802811292171","authorIdStr":"3518802811292171"},"content":"上一次就有高管套现,这次解禁能保证不卖等着涨就真邪来了。不值这个价位,虽然跟几个大的餐饮合作,但也有来自雀巢等公司的竞争,还特别难吃","text":"上一次就有高管套现,这次解禁能保证不卖等着涨就真邪来了。不值这个价位,虽然跟几个大的餐饮合作,但也有来自雀巢等公司的竞争,还特别难吃","html":"上一次就有高管套现,这次解禁能保证不卖等着涨就真邪来了。不值这个价位,虽然跟几个大的餐饮合作,但也有来自雀巢等公司的竞争,还特别难吃"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937745668,"gmtCreate":1575401563154,"gmtModify":1704729433682,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>听了我的朋友们应该高兴了吧。。目前看盘整还将持续一段时间,底还没有找到,下一季报前向下压力逐渐增加,60-65估计会踩一脚","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>听了我的朋友们应该高兴了吧。。目前看盘整还将持续一段时间,底还没有找到,下一季报前向下压力逐渐增加,60-65估计会踩一脚","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$听了我的朋友们应该高兴了吧。。目前看盘整还将持续一段时间,底还没有找到,下一季报前向下压力逐渐增加,60-65估计会踩一脚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937745668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3491471977156812","authorId":"3491471977156812","name":"YOYOYO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcec35de7dfe5a3ffd7e5110b5b88218","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3491471977156812","authorIdStr":"3491471977156812"},"content":"我觉得今天很适合补仓这个价格以及大盘跌了价格还是这样子","text":"我觉得今天很适合补仓这个价格以及大盘跌了价格还是这样子","html":"我觉得今天很适合补仓这个价格以及大盘跌了价格还是这样子"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992549918,"gmtCreate":1565570639534,"gmtModify":1704712599081,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"空谈误国,实干兴邦,国泰的灾难,我们的财富良机","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00293\">$国泰航空(00293)$ $中国国航(00753)$ $中国南方航空股份(01055)$ $中国东方航空股份(00670)$ $联合大陆航空(UAL)$ $达美航空(DAL)$</a> 事件本身并不复杂,在此我就简述一下不详细复盘了。香港最近的群体暴力事件频发,国泰作为香港大雇主之一,也有相当的员工,据称超过3000人,参与了其中的一些事件,严重影响了相关的秩序,特别是由于其行业的特殊性,影响了交通。之后事件进一步升级,先是其旗下一机长的广播事件,执飞机长在降落前的一次广播中光明正大地表明自己的ZZ立场,引发了争议并引起了乘客的不安。之后的7月28日,香港中环等几个地区发生了非法游行集结,有激进的**者用极端暴力手段冲击警方,警方在清场行动中拘捕了49人,44人被控暴动罪,国泰航空副机长廖颂贤也在其中,然而,这名副机长不仅在7月31日获准保释,法官更允许他可以在当值期间离港工作,国泰亦未作处置。其实一直至此,作为英资控股的一家公司,考虑到英国最近在香港问题上疯狂作死的姿态,国泰最多也只能算是骑墙和不作为,但是由于其业务涉及普通人的出行等基本需求,不作为导致内部事态的进一步发酵已经引起了普遍的社会关注和抨击。随后发生的恶意泄露航班旅客信息就是压死骆驼的最后一根稻草了,最近几天,网上又曝出国泰员工私自通过Whatsapp,在网络上泄露前往成都参加第十八届「世界警察和消防员运动会」的部分香港警队人员航班行程信息,结合频发的暴力分子对香港警察及其家人子女的人身威胁,事情至此已经让人觉得毛骨悚然不寒而栗,于是民航局出手了。 以上三条招招到位,特别是其中第二条,据专业人士介绍,因为香港机场所在的位置距离珠港分界线仅有5公里,东往西起降完全无法避免飞越内地领空的,北面有深圳,西南面","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00293\">$国泰航空(00293)$ $中国国航(00753)$ $中国南方航空股份(01055)$ $中国东方航空股份(00670)$ $联合大陆航空(UAL)$ $达美航空(DAL)$</a> 事件本身并不复杂,在此我就简述一下不详细复盘了。香港最近的群体暴力事件频发,国泰作为香港大雇主之一,也有相当的员工,据称超过3000人,参与了其中的一些事件,严重影响了相关的秩序,特别是由于其行业的特殊性,影响了交通。之后事件进一步升级,先是其旗下一机长的广播事件,执飞机长在降落前的一次广播中光明正大地表明自己的ZZ立场,引发了争议并引起了乘客的不安。之后的7月28日,香港中环等几个地区发生了非法游行集结,有激进的**者用极端暴力手段冲击警方,警方在清场行动中拘捕了49人,44人被控暴动罪,国泰航空副机长廖颂贤也在其中,然而,这名副机长不仅在7月31日获准保释,法官更允许他可以在当值期间离港工作,国泰亦未作处置。其实一直至此,作为英资控股的一家公司,考虑到英国最近在香港问题上疯狂作死的姿态,国泰最多也只能算是骑墙和不作为,但是由于其业务涉及普通人的出行等基本需求,不作为导致内部事态的进一步发酵已经引起了普遍的社会关注和抨击。随后发生的恶意泄露航班旅客信息就是压死骆驼的最后一根稻草了,最近几天,网上又曝出国泰员工私自通过Whatsapp,在网络上泄露前往成都参加第十八届「世界警察和消防员运动会」的部分香港警队人员航班行程信息,结合频发的暴力分子对香港警察及其家人子女的人身威胁,事情至此已经让人觉得毛骨悚然不寒而栗,于是民航局出手了。 以上三条招招到位,特别是其中第二条,据专业人士介绍,因为香港机场所在的位置距离珠港分界线仅有5公里,东往西起降完全无法避免飞越内地领空的,北面有深圳,西南面","text":"$国泰航空(00293)$ $中国国航(00753)$ $中国南方航空股份(01055)$ $中国东方航空股份(00670)$ $联合大陆航空(UAL)$ $达美航空(DAL)$ 事件本身并不复杂,在此我就简述一下不详细复盘了。香港最近的群体暴力事件频发,国泰作为香港大雇主之一,也有相当的员工,据称超过3000人,参与了其中的一些事件,严重影响了相关的秩序,特别是由于其行业的特殊性,影响了交通。之后事件进一步升级,先是其旗下一机长的广播事件,执飞机长在降落前的一次广播中光明正大地表明自己的ZZ立场,引发了争议并引起了乘客的不安。之后的7月28日,香港中环等几个地区发生了非法游行集结,有激进的**者用极端暴力手段冲击警方,警方在清场行动中拘捕了49人,44人被控暴动罪,国泰航空副机长廖颂贤也在其中,然而,这名副机长不仅在7月31日获准保释,法官更允许他可以在当值期间离港工作,国泰亦未作处置。其实一直至此,作为英资控股的一家公司,考虑到英国最近在香港问题上疯狂作死的姿态,国泰最多也只能算是骑墙和不作为,但是由于其业务涉及普通人的出行等基本需求,不作为导致内部事态的进一步发酵已经引起了普遍的社会关注和抨击。随后发生的恶意泄露航班旅客信息就是压死骆驼的最后一根稻草了,最近几天,网上又曝出国泰员工私自通过Whatsapp,在网络上泄露前往成都参加第十八届「世界警察和消防员运动会」的部分香港警队人员航班行程信息,结合频发的暴力分子对香港警察及其家人子女的人身威胁,事情至此已经让人觉得毛骨悚然不寒而栗,于是民航局出手了。 以上三条招招到位,特别是其中第二条,据专业人士介绍,因为香港机场所在的位置距离珠港分界线仅有5公里,东往西起降完全无法避免飞越内地领空的,北面有深圳,西南面","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aeb957c83e2baca2148351e1be4d224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992549918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991532373,"gmtCreate":1564966505092,"gmtModify":1704707958597,"author":{"id":"3462785558731474","authorId":"3462785558731474","name":"公众号豆豆says","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93167c858777b5314e04ef0d270fc2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462785558731474","authorIdStr":"3462785558731474"},"themes":[],"title":"大鹏一日同风起,金融投资正当时","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ $伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> 老巴的伯克希尔创下历史盈利,作为股东的你想必兴奋不已,或者如果你还没有上车,考虑到巴老爷的年事多少也会担忧一味追高是否明智,那就一定会和我一样苦思从中我们可以看到什么机会。有读者看到今天的标题肯定就会喷,降息周期金融投资怎么就正当时了?毕竟由于息差收窄,降息中金融是典型的弱势行业。这当然没错,不过也别着急,魔鬼永远在细节中,以下,enjoy: 大家翻一翻这个公众号最早的文章会发现我在15年的时候推过几个供大家长期持有的板块,其中有一个大多数读者不甚熟悉的类目-上市的PE公司。当时的thesis概括来说主要是大量dry powder和持续的强大募资能力下精英pe管理人在经济下行周期中的独特周期性机会(详见历史文章-新的故事)。果不其然,业绩走强分红大增下这个组合至今已经不止翻倍。 但是该行业一直以来都有一个魔咒,表现虽好但是估值较低,在业绩猛增美股整体上涨的这几年里,我们也没看到太多基于估值扩张带来的上涨,戴维斯双击少了一击。在相对有效的美股市场,这到底是为什么呢?这里不得不提一下PE类公司上市的故事。2007年,行业巨头黑石集团 $黑石(BX)$ 排除万难,以一套相当独特的架构在纳斯达克上市,成为第一家上市PE,由此开启了PE类企业的上市潮。出于匹配业务惯例以及税务规划(简单来说以有限合伙上市企业盈利不缴纳企业税而直接在LP个人层面计算资本利得税)等多重考虑,黑石集团的上市主体是一家有限合伙企业,在股票市场上发行和交易,是这家有限合伙企业的LP份额。 买过私募基金的朋友们应该知道,在有限合伙企业中,GP拥有几乎一切经营管理权,LP则只有知情权和收益权,在这里上市企业的架构也是这样,投资人作为LP处在绝对劣","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ $伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> 老巴的伯克希尔创下历史盈利,作为股东的你想必兴奋不已,或者如果你还没有上车,考虑到巴老爷的年事多少也会担忧一味追高是否明智,那就一定会和我一样苦思从中我们可以看到什么机会。有读者看到今天的标题肯定就会喷,降息周期金融投资怎么就正当时了?毕竟由于息差收窄,降息中金融是典型的弱势行业。这当然没错,不过也别着急,魔鬼永远在细节中,以下,enjoy: 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