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2023-08-18
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就在今晚！2.2万亿美元期权即将到期，美股“波动性爆炸”一触即发？
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Silverman解释称，Jackson Hole全球央行年会即将拉开帷幕，在这个时期做市商会更加谨慎。如果股市回调，做市商可能会通过抛售、平仓等方式放大下跌趋势导致股市进一步下跌：</p><blockquote>在市场抛售股票的过程中将遇到更多看跌期权买家，而他们往往会加剧负面走势。</blockquote><p>对于投资者来说，挑战远不止于此。高盛和瑞银都在报告中警告称，零日期权看跌期权(0DTE)交易激增，导致投资者大举抛售，加速了美股8月的跌势。野村估算，8月才过半，就有四天的0DTE交易量跻身十大最高交易日之列。花旗发现，<strong>最近交易员青睐的零日期权从看涨转变为看跌。</strong></p><p>隔夜三大美股指数三连跌，纳指连续三日跌超1%，刷新6月9日以来低位。道指收跌0.84%，至7月13日以来低位。标普收跌0.77%跌至6月26日以来低位。科技股为重的纳斯达克100指数收跌1.08%，连跌三日，连续两日刷新6月26日以来低位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb91c5919f25571f7936390c9c1fbed\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"152\"/></p><p>隔夜，华尔街恐慌指数VIX收于17.74点，为5月以来最高水平。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/575edb218814e638afaa795542c8d0cd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"662\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2363846728\">美股还要跌？</h2><p>华尔街见闻此前指出，美股科技股二季报稍显平淡，叠加美国国债收益率上行，导致科技股近期走势疲软。RBC财富管理公司的高级投资组合策略师Tom Garretson表示到目前为止，<strong>股市下调的幅度比此前美债实际收益率上升时期要缓和得多</strong>：</p><blockquote>科技股，当然也包括整体股票，正在逐步感受到美债实际收益率上升的压力，但迄今为止还没到过去实际收益率上升时期的跌幅程度。 在过去三年里，与当前实际收益率上升时期类似的情况下，<strong>我们看到科技股平均回落了7%到15%。</strong>”</blockquote><p>本周，美国30年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)收益率突破2%，刷新2011年以来新高。而就在前一日，美国10年期实际收益率刷新2009年以来的最高水平。</p><p>实际收益率的大幅上升可能对资产估值构成明显压力，这些资产的未来收益必须以更高的利率进行贴现。TIPS及长期名义美债收益率面临的上行压力，也反映了市场对于对通胀路径的高度不确定性。</p><p>另一方面，自今年年初以来，美国七家最大的企业巨头--Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的总市值暴涨69%，远远超过大盘指数。目前，仅仅这七家公司的市值，就占标准普尔500指数市值的30%，占纳斯达克100指数市值的60％以上，较年初的比例大幅上涨。</p><p>分析指出，这一拉动力在很大程度上来自于对前景的乐观，<strong>但如今这一乐观情绪在短期内已经基本兑现</strong>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">蒙特利尔银行</a>资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen在一份报告中指出，从经济角度来看，经通胀调整后的借贷成本保持在如此高水平的时间越长，对企业和消费者行为的影响就越大。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>全球投资办公室的Mike Loewengart表示，<strong>本周的数据没有给美联储任何可以放松的理由，无法排除今年会进一步加息的可能性</strong>：</p><blockquote>“随着住房开工、零售销售和失业申请等数据都印证了经济的韧性，即使美联储9月按兵不动，也不能排除进一步加息的可能性。”</blockquote><p>RBC Capital Markets衍生品策略主管Amy Wu Silverman表示，由于Jackson Hole全球央行年会可能会成为引发市场波动的事件，从做市商的立场来看，任何股市回调都可能迅速恶化。她表示：</p><blockquote>“有很多人说市场正在从‘多头’转向‘空头’，这意味着，在我们抛售股票的过程中将遇到更多看跌期权买家，而他们往往会加剧负面走势。”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>就在今晚！2.2万亿美元期权即将到期，美股“波动性爆炸”一触即发？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今晚！2.2万亿美元期权即将到期，美股“波动性爆炸”一触即发？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-18 18:48 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695843><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今晚，美股将面临8月期权到期的考验，而这可能使市场面临又一轮抛售。当前做市商正从‘多头’转向‘空头’，如果美股在今晚进一步下跌，做市商或加剧负面走势。2.2万亿美元期权今日到期，美股今晚注定无法平静？8月18日，衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman在报告中指出，约有2.2万亿美元与股票和指数挂钩的较长期期权合约将于今日到期。这被称为月度OpEx(期权到期)热潮，一直以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695843\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48ba1d14dfada3e97d5db475e214e7c","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","GS":"高盛","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695843","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2360630838","content_text":"今晚，美股将面临8月期权到期的考验，而这可能使市场面临又一轮抛售。当前做市商正从‘多头’转向‘空头’，如果美股在今晚进一步下跌，做市商或加剧负面走势。2.2万亿美元期权今日到期，美股今晚注定无法平静？8月18日，衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman在报告中指出，约有2.2万亿美元与股票和指数挂钩的较长期期权合约将于今日到期。这被称为月度OpEx(期权到期)热潮，一直以来以引发股市剧烈波动而闻名，为交易员和做市商重组大量头寸提供了流动性窗口，市场往往会集体重新评估他们的风险敞口，展期现有头寸，或开始新头寸，而这一过程将导致交易量大幅飙升，并可能导致股市的突然波动。高盛在最近的报告中警告称，8月的OpEx将加剧近期的市场抛售。高盛指出，做市商的头寸变化也值得关注。作为期权交易的另一方，做市商会通过买入期权，同时用标的资产进行delta对冲，以达到组合的市场中性目的，这称为“gamma对冲”。高盛指出，做市商在上周转为“做空gamma”，为今年以来的首次，鉴于做市商的立场，他们或放大市场波动，因此当前美股的回调可能迅速恶化。RBC Capital Markets衍生品策略主管Amy Wu Silverman解释称，Jackson Hole全球央行年会即将拉开帷幕，在这个时期做市商会更加谨慎。如果股市回调，做市商可能会通过抛售、平仓等方式放大下跌趋势导致股市进一步下跌：在市场抛售股票的过程中将遇到更多看跌期权买家，而他们往往会加剧负面走势。对于投资者来说，挑战远不止于此。高盛和瑞银都在报告中警告称，零日期权看跌期权(0DTE)交易激增，导致投资者大举抛售，加速了美股8月的跌势。野村估算，8月才过半，就有四天的0DTE交易量跻身十大最高交易日之列。花旗发现，最近交易员青睐的零日期权从看涨转变为看跌。隔夜三大美股指数三连跌，纳指连续三日跌超1%，刷新6月9日以来低位。道指收跌0.84%，至7月13日以来低位。标普收跌0.77%跌至6月26日以来低位。科技股为重的纳斯达克100指数收跌1.08%，连跌三日，连续两日刷新6月26日以来低位。隔夜，华尔街恐慌指数VIX收于17.74点，为5月以来最高水平。美股还要跌？华尔街见闻此前指出，美股科技股二季报稍显平淡，叠加美国国债收益率上行，导致科技股近期走势疲软。RBC财富管理公司的高级投资组合策略师Tom Garretson表示到目前为止，股市下调的幅度比此前美债实际收益率上升时期要缓和得多：科技股，当然也包括整体股票，正在逐步感受到美债实际收益率上升的压力，但迄今为止还没到过去实际收益率上升时期的跌幅程度。 在过去三年里，与当前实际收益率上升时期类似的情况下，我们看到科技股平均回落了7%到15%。”本周，美国30年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)收益率突破2%，刷新2011年以来新高。而就在前一日，美国10年期实际收益率刷新2009年以来的最高水平。实际收益率的大幅上升可能对资产估值构成明显压力，这些资产的未来收益必须以更高的利率进行贴现。TIPS及长期名义美债收益率面临的上行压力，也反映了市场对于对通胀路径的高度不确定性。另一方面，自今年年初以来，美国七家最大的企业巨头--Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉的总市值暴涨69%，远远超过大盘指数。目前，仅仅这七家公司的市值，就占标准普尔500指数市值的30%，占纳斯达克100指数市值的60％以上，较年初的比例大幅上涨。分析指出，这一拉动力在很大程度上来自于对前景的乐观，但如今这一乐观情绪在短期内已经基本兑现。蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen在一份报告中指出，从经济角度来看，经通胀调整后的借贷成本保持在如此高水平的时间越长，对企业和消费者行为的影响就越大。摩根士丹利全球投资办公室的Mike Loewengart表示，本周的数据没有给美联储任何可以放松的理由，无法排除今年会进一步加息的可能性：“随着住房开工、零售销售和失业申请等数据都印证了经济的韧性，即使美联储9月按兵不动，也不能排除进一步加息的可能性。”RBC Capital Markets衍生品策略主管Amy Wu Silverman表示，由于Jackson Hole全球央行年会可能会成为引发市场波动的事件，从做市商的立场来看，任何股市回调都可能迅速恶化。她表示：“有很多人说市场正在从‘多头’转向‘空头’，这意味着，在我们抛售股票的过程中将遇到更多看跌期权买家，而他们往往会加剧负面走势。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":210310186488080,"gmtCreate":1692365640616,"gmtModify":1692365774967,"author":{"id":"3461995344161022","authorId":"3461995344161022","name":"Arwin2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c40edd394323ee3ad30c41f003bf6bc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461995344161022","authorIdStr":"3461995344161022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"点个赞","listText":"点个赞","text":"点个赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/210310186488080","repostId":"2360630838","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
