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月光染雪
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IP属地:江苏
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月光染雪
2022-03-09
$腾讯控股(00700)$
今天艰难的V型。难道是要反转的信号[笑哭]
月光染雪
2021-03-16
$腾讯控股(00700)$
财不进急门,关注不变的东西,关注确定性。剩下的只能耐心等了。
月光染雪
2021-02-11
“房源是一切之本”
抱歉,原内容已删除
月光染雪
2021-01-28
$腾讯控股(00700)$
市场不好的时候,会不会更加拥抱龙头,拥抱垄断,拥抱确定性。
月光染雪
2020-12-28
$腾讯控股(00700)$
横盘5个月,钱少,再加一手。
月光染雪
2020-12-24
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
该不该买?
月光染雪
2020-12-17
$百度(BIDU)$
连涨几天,高歌猛进。明天会不会回调些喘口气[笑哭]
月光染雪
2020-12-11
$百度(BIDU)$
科技提高效率,降低社会成本。衣食住行前三名都差不多互联网化完成,想想某壳在住上面的初涨幅,百度技术壁垒目前来看是不是很强,社会需求,成长空间是不是很大,虽然商业化路途还很遥远,但是大势所趋。路程也许波折,看你能否拿住,风险就是管理能力是不是跟得上。
月光染雪
2020-09-09
$腾讯控股(00700)$
大家成本都很高,可能不怎么舍得卖,感觉价格再下探有些难度。
月光染雪
2020-08-28
$贝壳(BEKE)$
估值不便宜,想象空间更大,有护城河的革新者,逢低吸。
月光染雪
2019-04-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$多空交战很激烈
月光染雪
2019-04-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 16.25下车了,先把获利的平出来看看,等反弹或者回调时再补回。
月光染雪
2019-03-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 股票是短期的投票机,长期的称重机。涨这么多天了,回调也正常。
月光染雪
2019-03-21
$Facebook(FB)$ 瘦死的骆驼比马大,暂时前景不明朗才是机会
月光染雪
2018-01-26
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ ryb事件后的公关做的也不到位,家长信心难建立。谁愿意冒孩子被针灸的危险去选择他。早教学校不是只有他一家。虽然只是个别案例,但没有明显补救,不能痛定思痛(至少让家长觉得)。也就难产生信任。价格就是上来需要多少时间。
月光染雪
2018-01-26
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 爬肯定会朝上爬。但丑闻事件太严重。对于这个行业来说是原则问题。要慢慢消化,重建信任不容易,想当年三鹿....
月光染雪
2017-09-13
$宝尊电商(BZUN)$ 咋波动这么大,这只股,请教懂的人?
月光染雪
2017-08-24
请问这两天这只股票大落大起的原因是什么?
$宝尊电商(BZUN)$财报出来后,盘后交易股价大降到下一个交易日累计大降26%,次日又上升10%,差不多收回一半失地。是财报表现良好,但没有达到预期吗?
请问这两天这只股票大落大起的原因是什么?
月光染雪
2017-08-22
请问大家在哪可以看最新财报
$宝尊电商(BZUN)$ 为啥跌这么多?财报表现不佳?
请问大家在哪可以看最新财报
月光染雪
2017-08-11
消息面影响人心,人心不稳股价不定
$腾讯控股(00700)$朝美喊话大概率应该不会打起来的,未来走势如何?买卖还是持有?矛盾啊
消息面影响人心,人心不稳股价不定
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$今天艰难的V型。难道是要反转的信号[笑哭]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5695283d9cd6d7139e8a3f8276ab78","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635949833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388890833,"gmtCreate":1613043796222,"gmtModify":1703768703274,"author":{"id":"3460199061049461","authorId":"3460199061049461","name":"月光染雪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/49610c5c6368c0e3418f9a7fc35256f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3460199061049461","idStr":"3460199061049461"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"“房源是一切之本”","listText":"“房源是一切之本”","text":"“房源是一切之本”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388890833","repostId":"2110042748","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2110042748","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612965926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110042748?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 22:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"资本将死于中介的 “巷战”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110042748","media":"攸克地产","summary":"资本+线上的“烧钱带流量造场景培养习惯”的打法与模式,也屡试不爽。在攻克了衣、食、行之后,资本会在“住”这个领域,重演这一幕么?攸克君想说的只是,资本不善于打巷战,而房地产中介,恰恰是巷战。","content":"<html><body><p>本文来自微信公众号“攸克地产”</p><p><font>左晖用5年时间做成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>,市值超越万科,这种效率之下,有关房地产中介的想象力突然迸发,嗅觉灵敏的资本,似乎又看到了一个方向。于是,前有易居联手阿里,后有恒大“收编”中介,房地产的下一个战场,似乎就在这里开辟。</font></p><p><font>在中国这个庞大的市场里,从滴滴打车,到美团外卖,烧钱有效的故事频频上演。资本+线上的“烧钱带流量造场景培养习惯”的打法与模式,也屡试不爽。在攻克了衣、食、行之后,资本会在“住”这个领域,重演这一幕么?</font></p><p><font>很可能不会,反过来,</font><font><font>住这个领域,很可能是资本烧钱的滑铁卢。</font></font><font>之所以这么说,攸克君可以归纳到以下几点看法:</font></p><p><font>第一、</font><font><font>贝壳这一类的房地产中介线上平台,首要的核心并不是客户、用户,而是信息,更具体来说,就是房源。</font></font><font>有了房源,就有了用户——经纪人;有了房源,也就有了客户——买房人,平台才能实现撮合交易。抽佣也好,放贷也罢,房源是一切之本,没有房源,连撮合的机会都没有。</font></p><p><font>既然房源是这个生意模式的核心,房源就必须是真的,而这一点,单靠大规模的资本烧钱,或者并购门店,是不能够实现的。它不同于出行,给了足够的补贴就有车,就有司机愿意加入以增加运力;它也不同于餐饮,靠资本补贴,就能让点餐吃饭有更多实惠,从而增加用户。资本补贴,买不来房源的保真,</font><font><font>“补贴就有人愿意卖掉自己房子”的故事讲不通,</font></font><font>所以,从这个层面上说,光有钱是没用的。</font></p><p><font>这是一个耗费时间的事情,</font><font><font>一方面需要价值观层面的一致与统一,另一方面,需要一套完整的技术层面的系统,</font></font><font>来识别房源真假,来建立让真房源在线上的机制。这看似容易,却是一个环节非常之多,牵涉到房主、经纪人、平台等多个环节的系统,这个系统要想有效,需要不断修改,不断在各个环节上完善,而这些,需要的不是钱,而是时间、专业和技术,资本并不是最根本的。</font></p><p><font>第二、资本加持的机构,最擅长的就是收购,具体在住这个领域,就是通过收编各个量级城市中的中介门店来迅速做大规模,进而抢占市场份额。但是,回到第一个问题,收购而来的中介门店,所带来的房源以及信息如何识别、甄别和管理,这依然是单靠资本不能解决的问题。</font></p><p><font>贝壳在全国拓展的时候,屡屡遇到这样的问题,就是那些新加入贝壳的门店、房地产中介企业的后台系统,不能和贝壳的后台很好地对接。这其中,有技术层面的问题,也有主观意愿的问题。这个问题,其实到今天为止,贝壳也还在摸索之中,技术性、流程性地去解决。</font><font><font>但大资本加持下轰轰烈烈的打法,没有耐心,也做不到精细化。解决这些问题,需要专业,甚至专业也不够,还需要时间。</font></font></p><p><font>没有这套系统的合理、科学、有效的接入,房源识别无从谈起。对于更喜欢讲故事的资本而言,它需要的是数据要能产生更大的价值,但是,收购来的门店后台数据水平千差万别,客观上的标准统一、主观上的意愿不一致,这些都会让更有价值的数据无法汇集,资本喜欢听的故事,就少了一个非常重要的题材。</font></p><p><font>第三、贝壳这类房地产中介平台,往往会带给人们错觉,即C端的客户是终端用户,其实不然,</font><font><font>这类线上化的房地产中介平台产品,真正的用户是B端,也就是经纪人。</font></font><font>他们又被叫做小B。所以,房地产中介互联网平台的首要服务对象,是服务好经纪人,这一点,资本烧钱也没有太大作用。</font></p><p><font>和资深一些的房产经纪人聊天会发现,他们在乎的是,在房产交易这个复杂、多环节的过程中,谁能给他们提供帮助,这与获取客户同等重要。这是一个非常专业、细分甚至是繁琐的领域。比如,同一套房子,多个经纪人都带看,谁在先,谁在后,同等情况下谁的客户成交,这是一套规则,</font><font><font>这种规则并非是平台想怎么定就怎么定,而是需要平台定出大部分经纪人们愿意接受的规则才行,</font></font><font>这只是一个例子。</font></p><p><font>所以,这个线上的房地产中介平台,只有对于经纪人而言,是工具性的,对于购房者来说,是非工具性的。工具性用户的粘性更高,才是这类产品的“真用户”,而给经纪人提供服务,依靠的还是专业和磨合,不断在各个环节上修改调整和改进,才能让这个工具符合经纪人的使用习惯。</font><font><font>这些,靠烧钱没用,靠专业也不完全有效,只有专业加时间才有效。</font></font></p><p><font>第四、是“自然生长”还是“凭空打造”,之于贝壳这种房地产中介平台的成与败,至关重要。</font><font><font>这实际上是动机问题。</font></font><font>攸克君能看到,在贝壳的资本故事突然兴起之后,</font><font><font>介入这个领域的机构和资本,动机是不尽相同的,</font></font><font>试图讲故事的人有,试图做市值管理的人也有。</font></p><p><font>但是,存量房的中介市场,本质上是一个“非常重”的领域,也就是说,</font><font><font>它是以服务为业务核心的领域。</font></font><font>这决定了一个问题,就是服务的水平、专业程度、体验感,决定了用户的使用习惯。如果资本进入这个市场,试图是讲故事之后套现,或者是试图在自己公司现有的市值上,增加更多的估值,那么,这一定是一个目标异化的经营行为,不能很好地给用户提供服务,</font><font><font>烧钱是烧不出高质量的服务体系的,</font></font><font>而互联网的本质在于“有用”,没用的互联网产品,一切就都是击鼓传花地等人接盘。</font></p><p><font>从这个角度而言,“自然生长”显然是更合理的。</font><font><font>自然生长的过程中,才能有更单纯的动机做好服务,才能有更长的时间去完善服务的各个环节和体系,</font></font><font>在此过程中,资本所起到的作用,只是扶持,并不能起到决定性的作用,这个行业的特殊性即在于,很多问题不是通过钱或者烧钱就能解决的。</font></p><p><font>第五、在房地产中介这个领域到达线上时,“流量”是一个伪命题。多年以来,能够看到的一个现实就是,在房地产领域单独提供流量、单独批发流量的机构,到最后只有两种结局,要么业务走到死胡同,要么向线下转向,所以,</font><font><font>简单的流量批发的模式,在这个“重”的领域,是效率极低的,</font></font><font>这再次说明了,这是一个重度服务的行业。</font></p><p><font>所以,</font><font><font>结合线下的能力,才是这类生意的核心所在。</font></font><font>对于工具性的用户经纪人而言,一个理想的房地产中介平台产品,是能够帮助他服务好他的客户的产品,他们才是高频的使用者,他们需要一款工具,能够找到符合他所触达的客户需求相匹配的房源,需要能够解决带看、成交、价格展示、房源信息展示等方面工作需求,而这些很多都是要通过线下才能完成的,并非是单靠资本烧钱就能完成的。</font></p><p><font>在线上,是资本可以简单粗暴投入并收到成效的领域,但是,</font><font><font>一旦转入线下,局面就会变得复杂化,变量就会增加,简单的资本打法就会失效,</font></font><font>专业、时间这些非金钱性的因素就会体现出来,这一切,都可以让资本无效。</font></p><p><font>看完以上五点,对于沉迷在贝壳故事里并试图复制贝壳或者讲一个类似于贝壳故事的人,攸克君提示以下几个小八卦:</font></p><p>1、贝壳谈投资,从来没顺过,从来没有资本追着投。</p><p><font><font>2、著名的高瓴投资,很早就接触过左晖,但最初没有投资,因为高瓴认为,存量房市场虽然看起来很大,但是经纪人的生意并不大。</font></font></p><p><font><font>3、孙宏斌投资贝壳,是友情帮忙站台。</font></font></p><p><font>看了以上的一切,你还想讲一个和贝壳同样的故事么?攸克君想说的只是,</font><font><font>资本不善于打巷战,而房地产中介,恰恰是巷战。</font></font></p><div></div><div></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n资本将死于中介的 “巷战”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 22:05 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_3968967493_ec91a34501900wkzj.html><strong>攸克地产</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号“攸克地产”左晖用5年时间做成贝壳,市值超越万科,这种效率之下,有关房地产中介的想象力突然迸发,嗅觉灵敏的资本,似乎又看到了一个方向。于是,前有易居联手阿里,后有恒大“收编”中介,房地产的下一个战场,似乎就在这里开辟。在中国这个庞大的市场里,从滴滴打车,到美团外卖,烧钱有效的故事频频上演。资本+线上的“烧钱带流量造场景培养习惯”的打法与模式,也屡试不爽。在攻克了衣、食、行之后,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_3968967493_ec91a34501900wkzj.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"09979":"绿城管理控股","BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_3968967493_ec91a34501900wkzj.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110042748","content_text":"本文来自微信公众号“攸克地产”左晖用5年时间做成贝壳,市值超越万科,这种效率之下,有关房地产中介的想象力突然迸发,嗅觉灵敏的资本,似乎又看到了一个方向。于是,前有易居联手阿里,后有恒大“收编”中介,房地产的下一个战场,似乎就在这里开辟。在中国这个庞大的市场里,从滴滴打车,到美团外卖,烧钱有效的故事频频上演。资本+线上的“烧钱带流量造场景培养习惯”的打法与模式,也屡试不爽。在攻克了衣、食、行之后,资本会在“住”这个领域,重演这一幕么?很可能不会,反过来,住这个领域,很可能是资本烧钱的滑铁卢。之所以这么说,攸克君可以归纳到以下几点看法:第一、贝壳这一类的房地产中介线上平台,首要的核心并不是客户、用户,而是信息,更具体来说,就是房源。有了房源,就有了用户——经纪人;有了房源,也就有了客户——买房人,平台才能实现撮合交易。抽佣也好,放贷也罢,房源是一切之本,没有房源,连撮合的机会都没有。既然房源是这个生意模式的核心,房源就必须是真的,而这一点,单靠大规模的资本烧钱,或者并购门店,是不能够实现的。它不同于出行,给了足够的补贴就有车,就有司机愿意加入以增加运力;它也不同于餐饮,靠资本补贴,就能让点餐吃饭有更多实惠,从而增加用户。资本补贴,买不来房源的保真,“补贴就有人愿意卖掉自己房子”的故事讲不通,所以,从这个层面上说,光有钱是没用的。这是一个耗费时间的事情,一方面需要价值观层面的一致与统一,另一方面,需要一套完整的技术层面的系统,来识别房源真假,来建立让真房源在线上的机制。这看似容易,却是一个环节非常之多,牵涉到房主、经纪人、平台等多个环节的系统,这个系统要想有效,需要不断修改,不断在各个环节上完善,而这些,需要的不是钱,而是时间、专业和技术,资本并不是最根本的。第二、资本加持的机构,最擅长的就是收购,具体在住这个领域,就是通过收编各个量级城市中的中介门店来迅速做大规模,进而抢占市场份额。但是,回到第一个问题,收购而来的中介门店,所带来的房源以及信息如何识别、甄别和管理,这依然是单靠资本不能解决的问题。贝壳在全国拓展的时候,屡屡遇到这样的问题,就是那些新加入贝壳的门店、房地产中介企业的后台系统,不能和贝壳的后台很好地对接。这其中,有技术层面的问题,也有主观意愿的问题。这个问题,其实到今天为止,贝壳也还在摸索之中,技术性、流程性地去解决。但大资本加持下轰轰烈烈的打法,没有耐心,也做不到精细化。解决这些问题,需要专业,甚至专业也不够,还需要时间。没有这套系统的合理、科学、有效的接入,房源识别无从谈起。对于更喜欢讲故事的资本而言,它需要的是数据要能产生更大的价值,但是,收购来的门店后台数据水平千差万别,客观上的标准统一、主观上的意愿不一致,这些都会让更有价值的数据无法汇集,资本喜欢听的故事,就少了一个非常重要的题材。第三、贝壳这类房地产中介平台,往往会带给人们错觉,即C端的客户是终端用户,其实不然,这类线上化的房地产中介平台产品,真正的用户是B端,也就是经纪人。他们又被叫做小B。所以,房地产中介互联网平台的首要服务对象,是服务好经纪人,这一点,资本烧钱也没有太大作用。和资深一些的房产经纪人聊天会发现,他们在乎的是,在房产交易这个复杂、多环节的过程中,谁能给他们提供帮助,这与获取客户同等重要。这是一个非常专业、细分甚至是繁琐的领域。比如,同一套房子,多个经纪人都带看,谁在先,谁在后,同等情况下谁的客户成交,这是一套规则,这种规则并非是平台想怎么定就怎么定,而是需要平台定出大部分经纪人们愿意接受的规则才行,这只是一个例子。所以,这个线上的房地产中介平台,只有对于经纪人而言,是工具性的,对于购房者来说,是非工具性的。工具性用户的粘性更高,才是这类产品的“真用户”,而给经纪人提供服务,依靠的还是专业和磨合,不断在各个环节上修改调整和改进,才能让这个工具符合经纪人的使用习惯。这些,靠烧钱没用,靠专业也不完全有效,只有专业加时间才有效。第四、是“自然生长”还是“凭空打造”,之于贝壳这种房地产中介平台的成与败,至关重要。这实际上是动机问题。攸克君能看到,在贝壳的资本故事突然兴起之后,介入这个领域的机构和资本,动机是不尽相同的,试图讲故事的人有,试图做市值管理的人也有。但是,存量房的中介市场,本质上是一个“非常重”的领域,也就是说,它是以服务为业务核心的领域。这决定了一个问题,就是服务的水平、专业程度、体验感,决定了用户的使用习惯。如果资本进入这个市场,试图是讲故事之后套现,或者是试图在自己公司现有的市值上,增加更多的估值,那么,这一定是一个目标异化的经营行为,不能很好地给用户提供服务,烧钱是烧不出高质量的服务体系的,而互联网的本质在于“有用”,没用的互联网产品,一切就都是击鼓传花地等人接盘。从这个角度而言,“自然生长”显然是更合理的。自然生长的过程中,才能有更单纯的动机做好服务,才能有更长的时间去完善服务的各个环节和体系,在此过程中,资本所起到的作用,只是扶持,并不能起到决定性的作用,这个行业的特殊性即在于,很多问题不是通过钱或者烧钱就能解决的。第五、在房地产中介这个领域到达线上时,“流量”是一个伪命题。多年以来,能够看到的一个现实就是,在房地产领域单独提供流量、单独批发流量的机构,到最后只有两种结局,要么业务走到死胡同,要么向线下转向,所以,简单的流量批发的模式,在这个“重”的领域,是效率极低的,这再次说明了,这是一个重度服务的行业。所以,结合线下的能力,才是这类生意的核心所在。对于工具性的用户经纪人而言,一个理想的房地产中介平台产品,是能够帮助他服务好他的客户的产品,他们才是高频的使用者,他们需要一款工具,能够找到符合他所触达的客户需求相匹配的房源,需要能够解决带看、成交、价格展示、房源信息展示等方面工作需求,而这些很多都是要通过线下才能完成的,并非是单靠资本烧钱就能完成的。在线上,是资本可以简单粗暴投入并收到成效的领域,但是,一旦转入线下,局面就会变得复杂化,变量就会增加,简单的资本打法就会失效,专业、时间这些非金钱性的因素就会体现出来,这一切,都可以让资本无效。看完以上五点,对于沉迷在贝壳故事里并试图复制贝壳或者讲一个类似于贝壳故事的人,攸克君提示以下几个小八卦:1、贝壳谈投资,从来没顺过,从来没有资本追着投。2、著名的高瓴投资,很早就接触过左晖,但最初没有投资,因为高瓴认为,存量房市场虽然看起来很大,但是经纪人的生意并不大。3、孙宏斌投资贝壳,是友情帮忙站台。看了以上的一切,你还想讲一个和贝壳同样的故事么?攸克君想说的只是,资本不善于打巷战,而房地产中介,恰恰是巷战。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397046666,"gmtCreate":1608135733955,"gmtModify":1703851408507,"author":{"id":"3460199061049461","authorId":"3460199061049461","name":"月光染雪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/49610c5c6368c0e3418f9a7fc35256f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3460199061049461","idStr":"3460199061049461"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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