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PP虎
2020-04-19
Mark一下
PP虎
2020-02-27
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
财务做假,苍天绕过谁。
PP虎
2020-02-03
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
给了管理层一个周末来回应 现在官方啥回应都没有。今晚至少跌20%
PP虎
2020-02-03
认真看了。还真是实锤,很难反驳。
抱歉,原内容已删除
PP虎
2020-02-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
真的开心得睡不着。早就怀疑瑞幸做假。终于有人主持正义了。
PP虎
2020-02-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
浑水的内部报告哪里可以看原文
PP虎
2020-02-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
终于等到浑水 心灵感应
PP虎
2020-01-10
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
瑞幸只是宣布了一个新战略,这几天没有实际的财报发出来 也没有真实的财务数据显示经营在持续好转。两天暴涨30%是完全站不住脚的。同时还有大股东减持 继续融资烧钱的利空。三季度财报后的涨幅可以理解,但这一波暴涨逻辑和数据都不够。市场所有的不理性都会被时间被价值熨平。
PP虎
2020-01-10
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
换手率70% 庄稼玩火必**
PP虎
2019-10-29
$好未来(TAL)$
我今年上的学而思线上。线上直播课1对200,线下的课1对20。线上授课的老师明显是讲得最好的。你是商家,会不会让最好的老师(产品)在2小时内覆盖最多的学生(用户)呢?所以,我会一直选择线上授课的方式。身边的朋友觉得线上方便,也越来越多转入线上。线上授课是更标准化的产品,当大家都习惯方式广为接受的时候,利润空间大有改善。
PP虎
2019-10-28
$好未来(TAL)$
今年正式成为一个一年级小学生家长。体验了学而思的产品及服务。辅导老师具有强大的续签约能力。存量用户,签约率高,很难离场。每年都有新的用户加入。这才11月不到,已经让预交春季和秋季学费了。线上课收费相当于线下八折,但占用的资源少很多。线上课利润空间很高。持续扩张线上,有利于利润率改善。线上课程向四五线蔓延的市场空间还很多。
PP虎
2019-10-28
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
夏天是饮品旺季,当时有小鹿茶。本质是个季节生意。秋冬季是淡季。财报看跌。
PP虎
2019-05-31
陈达 《烧钱与估值》
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 转帖 好文推荐 暗讽瑞幸 文|陈达专栏 估值是门手艺活,烧钱是门情怀活。 到了这个时代,估值已成玄学。因为曾经做生意,是为了靠生意来赚钱。但现在做生意并不为赚钱,而是为了抢取"市场份额"、占领"用户心智"、声明"价值主张",不然资方爸爸就要骂你没有灵魂。能不能赚到钱不是关键,关键的是,逻辑必须能闭环。因此让逻辑闭环就是很多创始团队 de facto 的使命陈述,创始人踏破铁鞋、跋山涉水地拿出浑身解数找爸爸们路演,最大的心愿就是:爹,快来看呀,我能闭环。 于是行业估值倍数不是关键,反正也没有EBITDA;贴现率也不是关键,反正也没有现金流来给你折;BP里能不能讲清财务模型不重要,关键是要把赛道画得清楚一点大一点—— 你看,水大鱼大赛道宽,一定能出大公司。当然还有一点某些投资人也非常看重(比如某主教)—— 有灵魂的BP必须要注明联系方式,你不写我怎么知道如何把钱给你。 如果你的逻辑能成功闭环且你的赛道够宽,那么资方爸爸的一句话可能会让你心花怒放:说吧你18个月要烧掉多少?这等于是在问你的burn rate,你的烧速,你一个月花钱的速度。一个burn rate 为1000万的公司,成功融资一个小目标,则其runway就是10个月,也就是说融资够烧10个月。 据实验证明,在常温常压下将一张百元美钞烧成灰烬大概需要一分钟,那么一个钟头可以烧6000刀。所以如果你一个月的烧钱速度(你的burn rate)大于432万美元,则字面意义的烧钱已经不够形容你糟蹋钱的速度。 面对这种特别能糟蹋钱的主,VC心中通常有一个烧钱倍数,你年末估值减去年初估值(一年的估值增量),必须是烧掉的钱的X倍。或者通过烧钱来倒推,你的估值也能跃然纸面。至于如何估出的值准度如何,都是ballparknumber,无伤大雅。因为VC们都认为,早期投资拼的是世界观。上升到这个境界,那谈钱的庸俗
陈达 《烧钱与估值》
PP虎
2019-05-24
$网易(NTES)$ 看账单过去一年我在网易严选消费1.5W,送了我个超级会员。会员权益很不错,每月一件试用商品,然后我身边开了超级会员也好几个。真正是走的中国Costco。超级会员每月试用真的不错。即使规模不大,网易的精品电商真的还是沉淀了很多用户。有匠心的公司不会太差。希望游戏寒冬过了,股价大爆发。长期看多。
PP虎
2019-05-24
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 求助各位大神,阿里他爸出售的进度公开市场可以查询么?会公告么?前期有说明完成公开市场减持的期限么?
PP虎
2019-05-23
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 消费品本质还是要回归价格。瑞幸12块钱一杯,我觉是合理的价格。问题的关键是12元就会亏损。它的品控看不到提价空间,补贴前路漫漫。咖啡其实是一种文化输出,中国的咖啡市场,也不是那么好教育好开垦的。这是基因里的东西。并且随着G2时代到来,大国博弈的背景下,消费品文化的入侵不会像以前那么容易。
PP虎
2019-05-22
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 我炒了两年老虎了,今天才晓得,居然做空支付的利息计费是按每天的利率来累计。昨天瑞幸做空利率就没有这么高。这简直反人类,反常识,违反最基本的契约精神!既然在当下愿意借出来券,就应该包括了当下对未来的判断,约定好出借利率啊。你管我借好多天?哪能因为形势不好,想涨就涨呢。这个世界上不管出借任何的资产,哪有随意涨价的道理。气死人哦
PP虎
2019-05-22
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 求助!我是昨天下的空单,没注意利率,请问怎么查自己的做空利率呢?如果这个票每天的做空利率都在实时变化,那我持有若干天,需要支付的利息是按下单时的利率一直计算么?
PP虎
2019-05-21
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 我真的是资深咖啡爱好,愿意喝星巴克,也愿意喝那种高逼格环境50元以上的咖啡,还愿意用12块钱买杯7-11。但是不愿意原价买瑞幸。瑞幸可能是我觉得最送钱的一只股票。它典型的有流量,没用户。流量和用户是两个概念。补贴可以带来流量,可是没有本质的要素可以吸引用户留存,提升忠诚度。难以想象补贴停止的时候,它能成为寡头。滴滴烧了这么几年,好歹出行是刚需,但现在离上市都遥遥无期。Uber也可以参考,资本市场对烧钱带流量却难以获得真正粉丝的模式,以后也不会友好。相比较而言,我觉得中概股网易挺好的。
PP虎
2019-05-21
$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 爱奇艺会员发展方面,跟三方合作密切,做的很领先。不管是和京东的,还是其它的合作。今年的会员增速仍然会很可观。光中国移动,都采购了相当数量做权益运营。目前我觉得是低估了。
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k一下","listText":"Mark一下","text":"Mark一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f76de38401b367885c2142e1570247f","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926450983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989620588,"gmtCreate":1582817104744,"gmtModify":1704347858974,"author":{"id":"3458166834025022","authorId":"3458166834025022","name":"PP虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49c24d47e5a5aca544db4479b455bb2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458166834025022","idStr":"3458166834025022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$给了管理层一个周末来回应 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看账单过去一年我在网易严选消费1.5W,送了我个超级会员。会员权益很不错,每月一件试用商品,然后我身边开了超级会员也好几个。真正是走的中国Costco。超级会员每月试用真的不错。即使规模不大,网易的精品电商真的还是沉淀了很多用户。有匠心的公司不会太差。希望游戏寒冬过了,股价大爆发。长期看多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/906869495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":906860582,"gmtCreate":1558708495946,"gmtModify":1704697275434,"author":{"id":"3458166834025022","authorId":"3458166834025022","name":"PP虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49c24d47e5a5aca544db4479b455bb2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458166834025022","idStr":"3458166834025022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 求助各位大神,阿里他爸出售的进度公开市场可以查询么?会公告么?前期有说明完成公开市场减持的期限么?","listText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 求助各位大神,阿里他爸出售的进度公开市场可以查询么?会公告么?前期有说明完成公开市场减持的期限么?","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 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