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ABDHN
2021-05-13
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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ABDHN
2021-05-11
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
高盛：QE或已达到顶峰，这是市场接下来会发生的事
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10:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：QE或已达到顶峰，这是市场接下来会发生的事","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134265445","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着五月来临，高盛等投行纷纷转向看跌美股走势。高盛策略师认为，全球量化宽松或已见顶，而大型科技股向顺周期的板块轮动还将延续。\n具体来看，高盛对于基本面给出了三大预测：\n1、商业情绪","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着五月来临，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等投行纷纷转向看跌美股走势。高盛策略师认为，全球量化宽松或已见顶，而大型科技股向顺周期的板块轮动还将延续。</p>\n<p>具体来看，高盛对于基本面给出了三大预测：</p>\n<p>1、商业情绪可能已经见顶。本周开始，ISM制造业指数从64.7明显下滑至60.7。</p>\n<p>2、全球量化宽松（QE）可能已经见顶。英国央行(BoE)出人意料地减少了量化宽松计划，标志着英国货币政策的转折点。与此同时，正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(BofA)的迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)所计算的那样，四大央行的量化宽松规模将从20年的8.5万亿美元降至21年的3.4万亿美元，到2022年降至0.4万亿美元。而在第二季度/第三季度，“宏观经济复苏越强，缩减幅度就越快、越大。”</p>\n<p>3、就业增长可能已经见顶。上周，四月非农就业报告表现令人失望，该报告显示仅新增26.6万个就业岗位，而预期新增100万个或更多。失业率也上升到了6.1%(因为越来越多的人在找工作)，平均时薪增长了0.7%，而经济学家们普遍认为没有增长。</p>\n<p>基于这些预期，从市场的角度来看，高盛预测有限的通胀风险和温和的货币政策——美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并在2024年初开始加息——现在至少与美国增长预期中的剩余缺口同等重要。</p>\n<p>展望未来，高盛认为全球复苏将持续扩大。该行的大宗商品策略师一直直言不讳地表示，他们对石油和铜持积极看法，而外汇策略师则表示，他们对欧元大幅升值和美元在今年剩余时间内全面走软重拾信心。在利率方面，高盛仍然认为市场对美联储首次加息的定价过早。在信贷方面，估值上升了，但仍保持着质量下降的倾向，因为经济预测应会支持企业现金流，而美联储仍将提供大力支持。同样，股市也因经济改善而受到好评，但考虑到目前的全球扩张和友好的政策环境，发达市场和新兴市场仍将进一步上扬。</p>\n<p><b>“富人税”将打击FAAMG</b></p>\n<p>FAAMG (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>(FB.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>是过去5年最好的投资之一，科技的惊人进步推动了科技巨头获得了巨额利润。</p>\n<p>但是高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin警告说，如果拜登政府明年加税的幅度加大，备受投资者青睐的FAAMG将面临进一步回调。</p>\n<p>该策略时表示:“如果拜登公司税计划得到全面实施，FAAMG 2022年预计收益将比普遍预期下降约9%。”相比之下，按照新的企业税税率，标准普尔500指数的收益将减少8%。</p>\n<p>Kostin说，FAAMG的股票也容易受到资本利得税增加的影响。“如果资本利得税在2022年上调，受较高税率影响的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的现行税率实现部分可观的资本利得。”FAAMG的股票在过去5年里升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增长的29%。</p>\n<p>Kostin补充说：“拜登总统提出的税制改革计划将提高公司和资本利得税率，这可能是FAAMG股票的风险来源。”</p>\n<p>可以这么说，FAAMG的支持者们似乎没有准备好迎接新一届政府改变的局面。高盛的研究发现，FAAMG股票的预期市盈率(P/E)为29倍，而标准普尔500指数中其余495只股票的预期市盈率为21倍。自1980年以来，五大股票34%的溢价仅排在第76百分位。</p>\n<p>仅这5只股票就占了标普500指数市值的21%。这不仅明显高于14%的长期平均水平，而且也高于2000年科技泡沫高峰时的18%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：QE或已达到顶峰，这是市场接下来会发生的事</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：QE或已达到顶峰，这是市场接下来会发生的事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-11 10:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着五月来临，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等投行纷纷转向看跌美股走势。高盛策略师认为，全球量化宽松或已见顶，而大型科技股向顺周期的板块轮动还将延续。</p>\n<p>具体来看，高盛对于基本面给出了三大预测：</p>\n<p>1、商业情绪可能已经见顶。本周开始，ISM制造业指数从64.7明显下滑至60.7。</p>\n<p>2、全球量化宽松（QE）可能已经见顶。英国央行(BoE)出人意料地减少了量化宽松计划，标志着英国货币政策的转折点。与此同时，正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(BofA)的迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)所计算的那样，四大央行的量化宽松规模将从20年的8.5万亿美元降至21年的3.4万亿美元，到2022年降至0.4万亿美元。而在第二季度/第三季度，“宏观经济复苏越强，缩减幅度就越快、越大。”</p>\n<p>3、就业增长可能已经见顶。上周，四月非农就业报告表现令人失望，该报告显示仅新增26.6万个就业岗位，而预期新增100万个或更多。失业率也上升到了6.1%(因为越来越多的人在找工作)，平均时薪增长了0.7%，而经济学家们普遍认为没有增长。</p>\n<p>基于这些预期，从市场的角度来看，高盛预测有限的通胀风险和温和的货币政策——美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并在2024年初开始加息——现在至少与美国增长预期中的剩余缺口同等重要。</p>\n<p>展望未来，高盛认为全球复苏将持续扩大。该行的大宗商品策略师一直直言不讳地表示，他们对石油和铜持积极看法，而外汇策略师则表示，他们对欧元大幅升值和美元在今年剩余时间内全面走软重拾信心。在利率方面，高盛仍然认为市场对美联储首次加息的定价过早。在信贷方面，估值上升了，但仍保持着质量下降的倾向，因为经济预测应会支持企业现金流，而美联储仍将提供大力支持。同样，股市也因经济改善而受到好评，但考虑到目前的全球扩张和友好的政策环境，发达市场和新兴市场仍将进一步上扬。</p>\n<p><b>“富人税”将打击FAAMG</b></p>\n<p>FAAMG (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>(FB.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>是过去5年最好的投资之一，科技的惊人进步推动了科技巨头获得了巨额利润。</p>\n<p>但是高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin警告说，如果拜登政府明年加税的幅度加大，备受投资者青睐的FAAMG将面临进一步回调。</p>\n<p>该策略时表示:“如果拜登公司税计划得到全面实施，FAAMG 2022年预计收益将比普遍预期下降约9%。”相比之下，按照新的企业税税率，标准普尔500指数的收益将减少8%。</p>\n<p>Kostin说，FAAMG的股票也容易受到资本利得税增加的影响。“如果资本利得税在2022年上调，受较高税率影响的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的现行税率实现部分可观的资本利得。”FAAMG的股票在过去5年里升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增长的29%。</p>\n<p>Kostin补充说：“拜登总统提出的税制改革计划将提高公司和资本利得税率，这可能是FAAMG股票的风险来源。”</p>\n<p>可以这么说，FAAMG的支持者们似乎没有准备好迎接新一届政府改变的局面。高盛的研究发现，FAAMG股票的预期市盈率(P/E)为29倍，而标准普尔500指数中其余495只股票的预期市盈率为21倍。自1980年以来，五大股票34%的溢价仅排在第76百分位。</p>\n<p>仅这5只股票就占了标普500指数市值的21%。这不仅明显高于14%的长期平均水平，而且也高于2000年科技泡沫高峰时的18%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2134265445","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着五月来临，高盛等投行纷纷转向看跌美股走势。高盛策略师认为，全球量化宽松或已见顶，而大型科技股向顺周期的板块轮动还将延续。\n具体来看，高盛对于基本面给出了三大预测：\n1、商业情绪可能已经见顶。本周开始，ISM制造业指数从64.7明显下滑至60.7。\n2、全球量化宽松（QE）可能已经见顶。英国央行(BoE)出人意料地减少了量化宽松计划，标志着英国货币政策的转折点。与此同时，正如美国银行(BofA)的迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)所计算的那样，四大央行的量化宽松规模将从20年的8.5万亿美元降至21年的3.4万亿美元，到2022年降至0.4万亿美元。而在第二季度/第三季度，“宏观经济复苏越强，缩减幅度就越快、越大。”\n3、就业增长可能已经见顶。上周，四月非农就业报告表现令人失望，该报告显示仅新增26.6万个就业岗位，而预期新增100万个或更多。失业率也上升到了6.1%(因为越来越多的人在找工作)，平均时薪增长了0.7%，而经济学家们普遍认为没有增长。\n基于这些预期，从市场的角度来看，高盛预测有限的通胀风险和温和的货币政策——美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并在2024年初开始加息——现在至少与美国增长预期中的剩余缺口同等重要。\n展望未来，高盛认为全球复苏将持续扩大。该行的大宗商品策略师一直直言不讳地表示，他们对石油和铜持积极看法，而外汇策略师则表示，他们对欧元大幅升值和美元在今年剩余时间内全面走软重拾信心。在利率方面，高盛仍然认为市场对美联储首次加息的定价过早。在信贷方面，估值上升了，但仍保持着质量下降的倾向，因为经济预测应会支持企业现金流，而美联储仍将提供大力支持。同样，股市也因经济改善而受到好评，但考虑到目前的全球扩张和友好的政策环境，发达市场和新兴市场仍将进一步上扬。\n“富人税”将打击FAAMG\nFAAMG (Facebook(FB.US)、苹果、亚马逊、微软和谷歌是过去5年最好的投资之一，科技的惊人进步推动了科技巨头获得了巨额利润。\n但是高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin警告说，如果拜登政府明年加税的幅度加大，备受投资者青睐的FAAMG将面临进一步回调。\n该策略时表示:“如果拜登公司税计划得到全面实施，FAAMG 2022年预计收益将比普遍预期下降约9%。”相比之下，按照新的企业税税率，标准普尔500指数的收益将减少8%。\nKostin说，FAAMG的股票也容易受到资本利得税增加的影响。“如果资本利得税在2022年上调，受较高税率影响的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的现行税率实现部分可观的资本利得。”FAAMG的股票在过去5年里升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增长的29%。\nKostin补充说：“拜登总统提出的税制改革计划将提高公司和资本利得税率，这可能是FAAMG股票的风险来源。”\n可以这么说，FAAMG的支持者们似乎没有准备好迎接新一届政府改变的局面。高盛的研究发现，FAAMG股票的预期市盈率(P/E)为29倍，而标准普尔500指数中其余495只股票的预期市盈率为21倍。自1980年以来，五大股票34%的溢价仅排在第76百分位。\n仅这5只股票就占了标普500指数市值的21%。这不仅明显高于14%的长期平均水平，而且也高于2000年科技泡沫高峰时的18%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":191448583,"gmtCreate":1620903284742,"gmtModify":1620903284742,"author":{"id":"3456917023157705","authorId":"3456917023157705","name":"ABDHN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acc59dc5007e0370e6a0330511e6cf2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191448583","repostId":"2135640571","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193038652,"gmtCreate":1620739455776,"gmtModify":1620739455776,"author":{"id":"3456917023157705","authorId":"3456917023157705","name":"ABDHN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acc59dc5007e0370e6a0330511e6cf2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193038652","repostId":"2134265445","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
