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2023-12-11
买又不是她的钱，准备接受洗礼吧。
半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会
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12:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390438626","media":"智通财经","summary":"“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。</p><p>人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”</p><p>类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5年一遇级别的牛市”，也在此前接受访谈时表示，“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206c27e4fc69c36ff4b14643c24e21c6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>李蓓的最新报告，又“执着”哪些观点和细节？</p><h2 id=\"id_1160265226\" style=\"text-align: start;\"> “只投股票”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据相关报告透露出的半夏投资宏观策略的资产分布情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年9月、10月和11月，半夏的产品仅有股票仓位，占比约七成到八成。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89980b255fa5f9a25bb602dd09674fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p>这家百亿私募主打的策略是宏观投资，也就是在股票、债券、商品资产上进行多空操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，李蓓出于对权益资产的高度看好，以至于并没有债券和商品的布局</p><h2 id=\"id_1439718857\" style=\"text-align: start;\">产业角度未来值得看好</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓在月报指出：<strong>全球产能投资上升大周期刚起来2年，本轮产业升级中国是相对成功的，</strong>新能源，汽车，机械，化工等，在国际上处于相对优势的位置，比欧洲和日韩的情况要更好，产业角度未来10年看好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于中短期宏观背景，她认为：中国利率在全球主要国家中最低，社融企稳回升，企业盈利回升，风险偏好位于历史最低点附近，也是最好的买点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于此，李蓓指出：无论中长期，还是中短期当前都应该看好中国股市。<strong>因为当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1595519135\" style=\"text-align: start;\">增量资金何来？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于未来三年A股的增量资金，李蓓点出了保险资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个大背景是：过去10年，保险大量的投资非标和城投。权益类资产持仓维持13%左右的低水平。过去2年，地产类非标基本已经萎缩殆尽，城投非标以后也将退出历史舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓认为：“保险公司想要获取高于3.5%的收益，满足偿付能力需求，很大程度就只能靠股票了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她还指出：保险公司面临的问题，是中国所有的有资产配置需求的个人和机构都面临的问题。比如之前中国的私人银行客户，同样的以非标作为主要的配置对象，现在同样的面临资产收益率大幅降低的问题，都是股市潜在的增量资金。</p><h2 id=\"id_3588868029\" style=\"text-align: start;\">看好大盘指数“牛市”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓对客户指出：有更大的把握认为未来两年是A股大盘指数的牛市。而市场却反而多下跌了5%，变得更加便宜，性价比更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于大类资产价格，她有如下预判：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率：利率陷入鸡肋，中期上下两难。财政扩张，政策性金融工具发力，后续的经济复苏都使得利率没有继续明显下行的动力，而高存量地方债务负担，也使得利率需要保持低位，未来1年没有大幅上升的可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">商品：未来1年中国复苏美国衰退，总需求没有共振。商品总体没系统的趋势性机会。只有一些局部的相对强弱机会和库存周期的节奏性机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股票：尤其在经过连续3年的下跌后，在年底这种时刻，机构结账考核存在压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“但只需不到一个月，新的一年开启，新的考核周期开启，保险为代表的各类机构，在低利率低信用利差非标收缩的现实资产荒压力下，大概率都会买入股票，增加权益配置的比例。届时，市场大概率会进入持续上行。”她如是说。</p></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-11 12:32 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2390438626","content_text":"半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5年一遇级别的牛市”，也在此前接受访谈时表示，“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。李蓓的最新报告，又“执着”哪些观点和细节？ “只投股票”根据相关报告透露出的半夏投资宏观策略的资产分布情况。2023年9月、10月和11月，半夏的产品仅有股票仓位，占比约七成到八成。这家百亿私募主打的策略是宏观投资，也就是在股票、债券、商品资产上进行多空操作。换言之，李蓓出于对权益资产的高度看好，以至于并没有债券和商品的布局产业角度未来值得看好李蓓在月报指出：全球产能投资上升大周期刚起来2年，本轮产业升级中国是相对成功的，新能源，汽车，机械，化工等，在国际上处于相对优势的位置，比欧洲和日韩的情况要更好，产业角度未来10年看好。对于中短期宏观背景，她认为：中国利率在全球主要国家中最低，社融企稳回升，企业盈利回升，风险偏好位于历史最低点附近，也是最好的买点。基于此，李蓓指出：无论中长期，还是中短期当前都应该看好中国股市。因为当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部。增量资金何来？对于未来三年A股的增量资金，李蓓点出了保险资金。一个大背景是：过去10年，保险大量的投资非标和城投。权益类资产持仓维持13%左右的低水平。过去2年，地产类非标基本已经萎缩殆尽，城投非标以后也将退出历史舞台。李蓓认为：“保险公司想要获取高于3.5%的收益，满足偿付能力需求，很大程度就只能靠股票了。”她还指出：保险公司面临的问题，是中国所有的有资产配置需求的个人和机构都面临的问题。比如之前中国的私人银行客户，同样的以非标作为主要的配置对象，现在同样的面临资产收益率大幅降低的问题，都是股市潜在的增量资金。看好大盘指数“牛市”李蓓对客户指出：有更大的把握认为未来两年是A股大盘指数的牛市。而市场却反而多下跌了5%，变得更加便宜，性价比更高。对于大类资产价格，她有如下预判：利率：利率陷入鸡肋，中期上下两难。财政扩张，政策性金融工具发力，后续的经济复苏都使得利率没有继续明显下行的动力，而高存量地方债务负担，也使得利率需要保持低位，未来1年没有大幅上升的可能。商品：未来1年中国复苏美国衰退，总需求没有共振。商品总体没系统的趋势性机会。只有一些局部的相对强弱机会和库存周期的节奏性机会。股票：尤其在经过连续3年的下跌后，在年底这种时刻，机构结账考核存在压力。“但只需不到一个月，新的一年开启，新的考核周期开启，保险为代表的各类机构，在低利率低信用利差非标收缩的现实资产荒压力下，大概率都会买入股票，增加权益配置的比例。届时，市场大概率会进入持续上行。”她如是说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":250948199272608,"gmtCreate":1702274872401,"gmtModify":1702275780672,"author":{"id":"3455778803206420","authorId":"3455778803206420","name":"禽兽放开那妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00680a43ed96155ca07f2cbdeeaa80b8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买又不是她的钱，准备接受洗礼吧。","listText":"买又不是她的钱，准备接受洗礼吧。","text":"买又不是她的钱，准备接受洗礼吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250948199272608","repostId":"2390438626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
