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17:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"若美国政府违约，这三样资产可为投资者提供保护","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148596522","media":"智通财经网","summary":"一些投资者已经开始消化违约风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者： 魏昊铭</p><p>目前，市场所有目光都集中在美国的债务上问题上。虽然美国财政部长耶伦此前曾表示，美国最早可能在6月1日就出现债务违约，但一些经济学家则更为乐观。高盛首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips曾表示:“我们目前的猜测是，真正的最后期限可能是6月8日或9日。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">离“官方”最后期限只有几天了，但还没有迹象表明国会关于提高债务上限的辩论取得了进展。尽管美国总统拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡都表示，他们最近就这个问题进行的讨论富有成效，但谈判尚未取得任何成果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，一些投资者已经开始消化违约风险。截至5月24日，将于6月1日和6日到期的美国国债收益率已飙升至7%以上。按照这个速度，投资者对当前形势的反应可能会与2011年的债务上限危机类似，当时美国越是接近债务违约，市场就越下跌。专家指出，在这种情况下，一些资产可以作为避风港。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>微软公司债券</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国债通常被普遍认为是安全的选择，但美国政府违约可能会考验这一理论。次佳选择可能是微软等盈利强劲的美国蓝筹公司发行的公司债券。数据显示，截至5月23日，微软8月8日到期的债券收益率刚刚超过4%。这意味着这家蓝筹科技公司被认为比政府更有信誉，至少在短期内是这样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还获得了穆迪和标普的AAA评级，与美国政府不相上下。当2011年债务上限谈判触及危机水平时，美国政府的评级就标普被下调至AA+并从此未调整过，因此这一因素值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄金ETF</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金是一种传统的避险资产，当美国的信用看起来不那么可靠时，黄金似乎能很好地避险保值。2011年夏季，在时任美国总统奥巴马和众议院议长贝纳于上限将被突破的前两天达成协议之前，SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)等基金大涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SPDR黄金ETF本月表现平平。然而，随着提高债务上限的最后期限越来越近，黄金价格可能会上涨。在争论还在激烈进行的时候，投资者可以在这种资产中寻求庇护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦股票</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃伦•巴菲特可能比“山姆大叔(美国象征)”更有信誉。毕竟，他是大多数投资者和政策制定者在银行倒闭或危机酝酿时求助的人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近几个月，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司一直是美国股票的净卖家和美国国债的净买家。他在5月初的股东大会上透露，该公司仅在4月份就购买了价值70亿美元的美国国库券，另外还有30亿美元的收益率高于6%的国库券。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总的来说，该公司的账面上有令人瞠目结舌的1300亿美元现金，随着美国国债收益率的上升，它的利息支付也在上升。巴菲特本人也明确表示，他不担心美国债务违约，这意味着他可以将短期利率飙升视为一个机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至5月25日，伯克希尔目前的市净率为1.39，接近巴菲特以前设定的1.2的回购门槛。寻求避风港的投资者可能会发现，目前的估值更具吸引力。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>若美国政府违约，这三样资产可为投资者提供保护</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n若美国政府违约，这三样资产可为投资者提供保护\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-26 17:08 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/936227.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者： 魏昊铭目前，市场所有目光都集中在美国的债务上问题上。虽然美国财政部长耶伦此前曾表示，美国最早可能在6月1日就出现债务违约，但一些经济学家则更为乐观。高盛首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips曾表示:“我们目前的猜测是，真正的最后期限可能是6月8日或9日。”离“官方”最后期限只有几天了，但还没有迹象表明国会关于提高债务上限的辩论取得了进展。尽管美国总统拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡都表示，他们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/936227.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dc8865e0dc507ddea5079c2429001","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/936227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1148596522","content_text":"作者： 魏昊铭目前，市场所有目光都集中在美国的债务上问题上。虽然美国财政部长耶伦此前曾表示，美国最早可能在6月1日就出现债务违约，但一些经济学家则更为乐观。高盛首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips曾表示:“我们目前的猜测是，真正的最后期限可能是6月8日或9日。”离“官方”最后期限只有几天了，但还没有迹象表明国会关于提高债务上限的辩论取得了进展。尽管美国总统拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡都表示，他们最近就这个问题进行的讨论富有成效，但谈判尚未取得任何成果。与此同时，一些投资者已经开始消化违约风险。截至5月24日，将于6月1日和6日到期的美国国债收益率已飙升至7%以上。按照这个速度，投资者对当前形势的反应可能会与2011年的债务上限危机类似，当时美国越是接近债务违约，市场就越下跌。专家指出，在这种情况下，一些资产可以作为避风港。微软公司债券美国国债通常被普遍认为是安全的选择，但美国政府违约可能会考验这一理论。次佳选择可能是微软等盈利强劲的美国蓝筹公司发行的公司债券。数据显示，截至5月23日，微软8月8日到期的债券收益率刚刚超过4%。这意味着这家蓝筹科技公司被认为比政府更有信誉，至少在短期内是这样。该公司还获得了穆迪和标普的AAA评级，与美国政府不相上下。当2011年债务上限谈判触及危机水平时，美国政府的评级就标普被下调至AA+并从此未调整过，因此这一因素值得关注。黄金ETF黄金是一种传统的避险资产，当美国的信用看起来不那么可靠时，黄金似乎能很好地避险保值。2011年夏季，在时任美国总统奥巴马和众议院议长贝纳于上限将被突破的前两天达成协议之前，SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)等基金大涨。SPDR黄金ETF本月表现平平。然而，随着提高债务上限的最后期限越来越近，黄金价格可能会上涨。在争论还在激烈进行的时候，投资者可以在这种资产中寻求庇护。伯克希尔哈撒韦股票沃伦•巴菲特可能比“山姆大叔(美国象征)”更有信誉。毕竟，他是大多数投资者和政策制定者在银行倒闭或危机酝酿时求助的人。最近几个月，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司一直是美国股票的净卖家和美国国债的净买家。他在5月初的股东大会上透露，该公司仅在4月份就购买了价值70亿美元的美国国库券，另外还有30亿美元的收益率高于6%的国库券。总的来说，该公司的账面上有令人瞠目结舌的1300亿美元现金，随着美国国债收益率的上升，它的利息支付也在上升。巴菲特本人也明确表示，他不担心美国债务违约，这意味着他可以将短期利率飙升视为一个机会。截至5月25日，伯克希尔目前的市净率为1.39，接近巴菲特以前设定的1.2的回购门槛。寻求避风港的投资者可能会发现，目前的估值更具吸引力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":906596620,"gmtCreate":1559055192260,"gmtModify":1704697600901,"author":{"id":"3450969366164023","authorId":"3450969366164023","name":"T20220108050","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679d4810220a43c4a49fe7ce2452f7d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450969366164023","authorIdStr":"3450969366164023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$ 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