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横肉挂满脸
2022-05-31
啥玩意儿
张国立化身“张管事“三度携手众安保险(06060) “大事小事真能管”升级国民保险服务力
横肉挂满脸
2020-04-30
这文章写的真是......
抱歉，原内容已删除
横肉挂满脸
2019-06-28
$嘉银金科(JFIN)$ 大家赶紧买啊 你我贷要疯了
横肉挂满脸
2019-04-17
$信而富(XRF)$ 准备爆雷 [开心]
横肉挂满脸
2018-12-13
$趣店(QD)$ 罗敏是发疯了
横肉挂满脸
2018-10-25
$品钛(PT)$ 又是给大家做空发财的机会 朋友们把握好
横肉挂满脸
2018-09-26
$拍拍贷(PPDF)$ 4.5等着大家 😁
横肉挂满脸
2018-09-26
$宜人贷(YRD)$ 我在15@块等你们
横肉挂满脸
2018-09-19
$小赢科技(XYF)$ 卧槽 做空的好机会啊 本周内必然破发啊
横肉挂满脸
2018-09-06
$拍拍贷(PPDF)$ 下周五前 跌回5字头
横肉挂满脸
2018-07-31
$拍拍贷(PPDF)$ 财报出来冲高5块，年底跌破3.5
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title=\"1652757382499995.png\"/></p><p><strong>品牌服务内涵升级，张管事更有温度</strong></p><p>张国立不仅是80、90后的共同回忆，其精湛演技和涉猎电影、综艺、主持等斜杠萌叔多面手的形象，早已覆盖全年龄层，以专业、靠谱、富有亲和力的形象实力圈粉。此次化身“张管事”的他，将国民体验官的服务守护能力再次升级。张国立呼吁“大事小事找管事”，将保险服务进一步渗透到生活的更多场景，无分巨细，全力以赴。</p><p>张国立形象的升级，是众安保险品牌场景运营能力精细化的体现，同时可以清晰看到，品牌在新保险服务上，以用户为中心，持续迭代升级的战略布局。作为国内首家互联网保险公司，在持续为国民提供有温度的保险服务的进程中，众安发现，Z世代需求变迁正在重新定义互联网保险服务。传统保险服务中，以出险为标志开启的服务链接显然无法打动年轻人。</p><p>今年5月，众安保险发布了新青年保险服务体验报告，指出随着新人群生活场景丰富，成为职场和家庭中坚力量的同时伴随着压力增长，他们的风险意识也随着个人社会角色变迁而发生变化，涌现出更多元的保障诉求，这也助推互联网保险服务随之升级。他们对新保险服务内核提出了三大新趋势升级要求：产品即服务、体验即服务、数智化服务，“速度与温度”并存的保险服务体系将成为未来发展方向。</p><p>此次众安保险，借势张管事的人设丰满，横向和纵向拓展了互联网保险新服务“万物皆可保”的服务体验。通过细分人群，针对少儿、老人、女性、特定疾病人群等提供不同保障。更以保险科技优势切入创新场景，持续丰富其产品矩阵。推出更多满足用户多元化需求的产品——首款全覆盖式网络安全保险，助力中小微企业化解经营风险；运动意外无忧险，助力冰雪运动发展、支持全民健身计划；首款癫痫人群可购的百万医疗险“癫痫保”，在慢病人群保障方面再下一城……</p><p>目前，众安保险围绕健康、数字生活、消费金融、汽车等各大生态系统进行创新布局，深入发掘市场痛点，利用保险科技抢占用户心智，为新生代提供个性化、定制化、智能化的新保险服务，真正实现”大事小事真能管“，关照每一个社会角色风险防范和服务守护。</p><p>张国立与众安保险的三度携手，也从侧面证明，国民实力派对当下世代为用户提供有温度的服务的认同。未来，众安保险将携手“张管事”，以“科技+保险+服务”驱动，在大事小事上都持续深化服务，创新保险服务外延，实现在基本保障服务的基础上，产品设计、流程体验、技术驱动，都全面升级迭代，真正融入、影响客户的生活并提供全套解决方案，为5亿用户持续提供更有温度、更有深度的“管事服务”</p><p><strong>互联网保险品牌深化，持续守护5亿国民</strong></p><p>已经坐拥5亿用户的众安无疑已经是一个国民化的品牌。为了实现品牌的国民化升级，众安保险在品牌营销上不断突破和创新。通过名人代言、公益营销、跨界营销等大型品宣，近些年更借势奥运体育营销，以”更高更快更强“奥运精神，稳住品牌基本盘，不断构建正能量品牌价值，打破用户对保险品牌的刻板印象，达成品效合一。</p><p>此次，携手张国立人设丰满，也打破了传统保险公司喊产品、强推销的宣传手段。丰满”张管事“人设与众安保险服务价值内核默契呼应，将“管的多”产品矩阵、“管的宽”多元服务场景、“真管真服务”的在线保险服务切入融入品牌理念，在场景化的品牌输出中，让用户眼前一亮，更增强风险管理意识，实现了品牌和代言人为用户价值提升服务双向奔赴 。</p><p>众安保险“以用户为本”的品牌理念，也得到权威机构的高度认可。近日，品牌评级权威机构Chnbrand公布2022年（第十二届）中国品牌力指数(C-BPI)品牌排名，众安保险斩获C-BPI财产险品牌榜第六名。意味着公司在品牌传播中积淀了深厚的品牌资产，发挥了独特价值，也说明众安保险科技创新及互联网场景下整体布局见成效，正加快释放新动能。</p><p>无论是品牌，抑或服务，纵观每一次创新的背后，都是众安保险对时代趋势的精准把握，对用户需求的深刻理解与洞察。众安保险在不同的场景下主动帮助和引导用户，以保险科技实力及产品研发能力，打造场景型保险产品的新标杆，不断在用户心中进行品牌价值沉淀，使得品牌知名度加速提升。</p><p>未来，众安保险将继续聚焦互联网场景和服务模式，以科技力，实现破圈发展与品效联动，以强有力的保障体系增加了服务范围，促进不同领域的协同发展，“软硬兼施”构建产业链圈，提升自身品牌实力与价值，实现高质量发展。众安保险将与互联网用户一路同行，做大家的“好管事”，带来更有温度、更有深度的保险服务。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张国立化身“张管事“三度携手众安保险(06060) “大事小事真能管”升级国民保险服务力</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/724482.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1550":"内险股","BK1127":"财产与意外伤害保险","06060":"众安在线","BK1136":"多元化保险","BK1571":"互联网医疗"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/724482.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236267811","content_text":"国民萌叔张国立继前两年解锁新身份，化身众安保险(06060)“国民体验官”，近日再度发布新动作。5月17日，众安保险正式官宣继续携手张国立。“国民体验官入职“的第三年，张国立将”履新张管事“，再度升级“大事小事真能管”的国民保险服务守护。5月17日开始，众安保险还将在抖音平台发起”全民任务“，邀请用户隔空将生活中的大事小事让“张管事”管管，以全民化的广告共创模式进一步加强保险服务的生活温度和守护价值。品牌服务内涵升级，张管事更有温度张国立不仅是80、90后的共同回忆，其精湛演技和涉猎电影、综艺、主持等斜杠萌叔多面手的形象，早已覆盖全年龄层，以专业、靠谱、富有亲和力的形象实力圈粉。此次化身“张管事”的他，将国民体验官的服务守护能力再次升级。张国立呼吁“大事小事找管事”，将保险服务进一步渗透到生活的更多场景，无分巨细，全力以赴。张国立形象的升级，是众安保险品牌场景运营能力精细化的体现，同时可以清晰看到，品牌在新保险服务上，以用户为中心，持续迭代升级的战略布局。作为国内首家互联网保险公司，在持续为国民提供有温度的保险服务的进程中，众安发现，Z世代需求变迁正在重新定义互联网保险服务。传统保险服务中，以出险为标志开启的服务链接显然无法打动年轻人。今年5月，众安保险发布了新青年保险服务体验报告，指出随着新人群生活场景丰富，成为职场和家庭中坚力量的同时伴随着压力增长，他们的风险意识也随着个人社会角色变迁而发生变化，涌现出更多元的保障诉求，这也助推互联网保险服务随之升级。他们对新保险服务内核提出了三大新趋势升级要求：产品即服务、体验即服务、数智化服务，“速度与温度”并存的保险服务体系将成为未来发展方向。此次众安保险，借势张管事的人设丰满，横向和纵向拓展了互联网保险新服务“万物皆可保”的服务体验。通过细分人群，针对少儿、老人、女性、特定疾病人群等提供不同保障。更以保险科技优势切入创新场景，持续丰富其产品矩阵。推出更多满足用户多元化需求的产品——首款全覆盖式网络安全保险，助力中小微企业化解经营风险；运动意外无忧险，助力冰雪运动发展、支持全民健身计划；首款癫痫人群可购的百万医疗险“癫痫保”，在慢病人群保障方面再下一城……目前，众安保险围绕健康、数字生活、消费金融、汽车等各大生态系统进行创新布局，深入发掘市场痛点，利用保险科技抢占用户心智，为新生代提供个性化、定制化、智能化的新保险服务，真正实现”大事小事真能管“，关照每一个社会角色风险防范和服务守护。张国立与众安保险的三度携手，也从侧面证明，国民实力派对当下世代为用户提供有温度的服务的认同。未来，众安保险将携手“张管事”，以“科技+保险+服务”驱动，在大事小事上都持续深化服务，创新保险服务外延，实现在基本保障服务的基础上，产品设计、流程体验、技术驱动，都全面升级迭代，真正融入、影响客户的生活并提供全套解决方案，为5亿用户持续提供更有温度、更有深度的“管事服务”互联网保险品牌深化，持续守护5亿国民已经坐拥5亿用户的众安无疑已经是一个国民化的品牌。为了实现品牌的国民化升级，众安保险在品牌营销上不断突破和创新。通过名人代言、公益营销、跨界营销等大型品宣，近些年更借势奥运体育营销，以”更高更快更强“奥运精神，稳住品牌基本盘，不断构建正能量品牌价值，打破用户对保险品牌的刻板印象，达成品效合一。此次，携手张国立人设丰满，也打破了传统保险公司喊产品、强推销的宣传手段。丰满”张管事“人设与众安保险服务价值内核默契呼应，将“管的多”产品矩阵、“管的宽”多元服务场景、“真管真服务”的在线保险服务切入融入品牌理念，在场景化的品牌输出中，让用户眼前一亮，更增强风险管理意识，实现了品牌和代言人为用户价值提升服务双向奔赴 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12:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"互金的“铁人三项”与乐信的客群优势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2022972607","media":"陈达美股投资","summary":"来源：雪球App，作者： 陈达美股投资，（https://xueqiu.com/9598793634/145222117）乐信1.互金行业优质公司，乐信财报表现亮眼近期，乐信发布2019年Q4以及20","content":"<html><body><article><p>来源：雪球App，作者： 陈达美股投资，（https://xueqiu.com/9598793634/145222117）</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200326135057006d0344wkjuxghyky\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a></p><p><strong>1.互金行业优质公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a>财报表现亮眼</strong></p><p>近期，乐信发布2019年Q4以及2019年全年财报。</p><p>全年topline方面，由于新消费平台战略，乐信Q4促成借款428亿，同比增长104%；全年促成借款额达1260亿人，同比增长90.6%，超额完成全年预期；全年营收达106亿，同比增长39.6%；经营毛利50亿，同比增长65.8%。截至2019年底，乐信管理在贷余额606亿，同比增长87%。资产质量表现持续稳健，超过90天的逾期率为1.56%。</p><p>在用户数据方面，截至2019年Q4，乐信用户达到7330万，同比增长96.5%；授信用户数1940万，同比增长84%；单季活跃用户数700万，同比增长133%，数量和增速均创record high；单季新增活跃用户数210万，同比增长244%，连续两个Q超过200%。</p><p>当然，市场无比关注Q1疫情对乐信的业务影响。目前来说乐信业务已经恢复到正常水平的90%以上。预计Q1平台促成借款金额将高于320亿，同比增幅将超60%。Q1大概率能维持比较平稳的财务表现。</p><p><strong>就报表而言，乐信整体表现要远远优于整个在美股上市的其他互金公司。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200326135057580d034v9h5swl1wlc\"/><p><strong>2. 客群质量直接影响互金公司“生死”</strong></p><p>了解完乐信的财报，我们先来聊聊互金的本质。在市场好的时候，百舸争流，莺莺燕燕，各有各的故事和噱头——大数据AI风控引擎牛逼到飞起；<strong>但在市场面临挑战的时候，华尔街就会将所有商业模式的表象撕碎，直达本质，然后以本质给你估值</strong>。</p><p>所有互金公司的业务模式都以会发生坏账的前提来布局，而所有互金业务的核心就是在 （合规的情况下）maximize 利差 和 minimize 坏账之间做取舍。<strong>将其掰碎，互金赛道本质上就拼三点，我称之为互金的“铁人三项”——1. 资产（assets）、2. 资金（financing）、3. 风控（risk control）。资产或资产端是指融资端借款人的成色；资金有人也会称之为渠道，是指你的放贷资本从哪来；而风控就是指贷前、贷中与贷后的三阶段决策的各种数据与逻辑。</strong></p><p>互金公司千千万，而此一家与彼一家的差别，穿过乱花渐欲迷人眼，本质上就是比“铁人三项”。那这三项哪个是核心差别，你可能会不假思索地回答是风控。但干这一行的人会告诉你核心差别其实是资产——因为从长期来看，有什么样的资产就有会什么样的资金，有什么样的资产就会有什么样的风控，资产是“道”，资金与风控是配套的技术性手段。</p><p>互金弱水三千，首看资产。而资产本质上就是看这个公司的客群，客群决定了他的资产质量。所以资金与风控直接配套客群。你不可能说：我的客群就是专做黑产羊毛党，但通过鹤立鸡群的风控体系可以从他们身上赚到钱——这是无异于与虎谋皮。优质的资产端——优质的客群自身本来就是最强有力的风控。</p><p>说句略绝对的话——<strong>客群直接定义一家互金公司。</strong></p><p>那啥叫优质的资产端？这个就是各家互金公司资金的判断，他们放心把钱借给谁。如果是在美国，那将客群分层就相对简单，就看FICO Score之类的信用分就好，因为这是一个非常成熟的数据沉淀，虽然不是严格的官方定义。以下是根据FICO分数做出的对客群的区分，仅供参考。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200326135058076d034h09sm9u22f8\"/><p>当然国内如何判定客群资质，就是另外一套玩法了，我们后面具体说。所以你的资产足够优质，比如清一色super-prime客群，那自然就有资金来找你，而且你就算把风控团队像一锅海鲜一样集体炒了，也完全不用慌。资产足够优质，利润将足够覆盖逾期和坏账<strong>。在宏观大势的逆风局里更是如此，由于不同互金公司的客群结构有巨大差异，大家受到的负面影响也大相径庭。</strong></p><p>比如新冠疫情之下，网贷的借款人可能会出现种种drama，生病、失业、被隔离等种种因素可能导致他们逾期违约。所以市场就担心，他们是不是没有还款能力，互金是不是随时爆发坏账潮。因为很多借款人实际上是借新还旧，一旦续命键坏掉了，逾期率可能要大爆发。</p><p>但是互金或消费金融这个领域里还有一层嵌套的逻辑 ——<strong>因为单笔借款数额不大，所以对于平台的借款人而言，其还款能力的重要性要远远低于其还款意愿的重要性。</strong>互金大多坏账是因为借款人不想还了，而非不能还。所以<strong>疫情之下并非所有平台都要逾期率大爆发的，那些客群具有强烈还款意愿的公司，就能稳住。</strong></p><p>那么问题来了，谁是还款意愿强烈的客群？</p><p>这还真不能机械而量化地进行判断。比如从传统的资产收入原则判断，其实是一件tricky的事情。打个比方，两个同样零存款零资产，不能说月薪15k的客群就比月薪5k的客群优质。因为前者有可能是某位外卖小哥，将一二线城市当成民宿，欠一屁股债回归故里一了百了，你一点儿办法也没有；而后者可能是刚毕业、将扎根一二线城市作为梦想的大学生，虽然现在收入不高，但长期而言，其未来发展路径非常清晰，一眼看到老，确定性非常高。作为人生而言这可能略显波澜不惊<strong>，但作为借款客群，波澜不惊是最大的美德。</strong></p><p><strong>许多互金公司在放贷时有一个核查项目就叫“还款意愿”，此项目一般对应的个人信息是：学籍、工作等等。为了实现稳定增长的人生，后者职场小白的还款意愿要远远大于前者，说白了，他们违约的人生成本——十分巨大。</strong></p><p><strong>3. 乐信的核心优势，focus in高成长、重信用客群</strong></p><p>而在我看来，乐信的用户就是这样一群人。了解乐信的都知道，一直以来乐信走的是“跟随客群共同成长”的策略，通过1. 在线广告投放；2. 地推；3. 分期电商，乐信从头到尾就只深耕一种目标人群——“高成长人群”，指90%以上为接受高等教育的年轻白领用户。</p><p>这个目标客群有其鲜明的画像特征。<strong>三个特点：重信用，收入高成长，客群庞大且增长迅猛。</strong>据研究机构Aletheia Capital的数据，中国目前受过高等教育的人群大约为1.8亿，每年以近800万人的速度增加（大约为每年的毕业应届生数量），这是一个向前蓄积的增量市场。这里可以参考<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">尼尔森</a>的研究报告，看下这一人群的消费潜力。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200326135102037d034iy8mine9bau\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200326135103333d03473x85t6taxm\"/><p>这样的人群，现在可能只是从你这里申请一笔小额的消费金融贷款，可能只是买个iPhone手机，而过几年他们可能会想买人生第一辆车了，再过几年买房装修云云，后面的价值结构是一条升值曲线。所以<strong>乐信“跟随客群共同成长”，贯穿一个城市白领的一生，才谈得上粘性与Lifetime Value。</strong></p><p>而反过来从风控的角度出发，由于有了这样一个具有长期价值的客群，风控就更有米可炊。因为我是从你刚出道就关注你的，我能积累下维度更宽广、更深度的历史数据——比如你的职场十年小白变油条的成长史——然后根据你的行为数据和资产状况，我其实随时能为你写一部自传。平台能在与客群一起成长的过程中间，发现、鉴别、分析客群的新趋向与新需求，从而创造新的价值。</p><p>通过一些数据我们也能看到，<strong>乐信的目标客群，也就是其“资产”，是一个货币化潜力高，安全边际长厚的多样化组合。</strong></p><p>一直以来乐信相比于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>等友商，乐信所谓的take rate较低（趣店在初期take与loan其平十分吓人），这其实也就是货币化程度低，不竭泽而渔、用力过猛。一方面是其effective rate 24%左右的水平是同行衬托下最低水平；而另一方面，其客群对信用的珍惜是另一个原因。这次财报的电话会也有分析师提到这个问题，以促成费用除以新增贷款来算，乐信Q4的 take rate还下降了。管理层的回答是：<strong>新获客的客群普遍有提早还款的习惯，而提早还款就会影响费用收入。</strong>对的，在狂欢消费的Q4里，乐信的客群还能坚持提早还款，这是珍惜羽毛的人群，而随着职场小白一路成长为行业大咖，将写字楼如丛林的城市作为一生的归宿，他们可以被预测到的货币深化（deepening)的过程，会十分平稳而波澜不惊。当然，还是那句话——<strong>作为借款客群，波澜不惊就是最大的美德。</strong></p><p><strong>4. 结语</strong></p><p>最后我来总结一下本文的核心观点。</p><p>互金业务主拼三项，资产、资金、风控。其中资产是真正核心的差异化，有什么样的资产就有匹配什么样的资金和风控。<strong>客群可以直接定义一家互金公司</strong>。</p><p>对于互金或者消费金融而言，因为<strong>单件贷款额度较低，客群的还款意愿重要性要远远大于客群还款能力的重要性</strong>。而有强烈还款意愿的群体，一般通过学籍、工作等判断，就是受过高等教育、初入职场的年轻人。</p><p>而乐信的客群，正是直接锁定了这样的人群。<strong>这是一个货币化潜力高，安全边际长厚的多样化的资产组合。这样的客群给乐信带来了差异化的资产，也决定了其在互金赛道上的持久赛力。</strong></p><p>利益披露：作者持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a>多头仓位。</p><p>行文仓莽，如有不足，请多包涵。</p><p>如转载，请注明雪球，署名陈达，万分感谢。</p><p>---------------------------------</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SH000001\">上证指数</a></p><p>@今日话题 @江涛 @梁剑 @Ricky @坚信价值 @不明真相的群众 @招财资本 @刘志超 @西峯@宁静的冬日M @管我财 @TLS美股研究 @啊咪老师 @布衣-淡定从容 @Stevevai1983@Mario @Takun @大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的飞飞 @对数资产 @狸哥很懒 @美国消费@仓又加错-Leo @飞刀猩猩诸法空 @被解放的mogwai @forcode @疯投哥 @Velaciela</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>互金的“铁人三项”与乐信的客群优势</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n互金的“铁人三项”与乐信的客群优势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-26 12:38 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261351047aee9a78&s=b><strong>陈达美股投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：雪球App，作者： 陈达美股投资，（https://xueqiu.com/9598793634/145222117）乐信1.互金行业优质公司，乐信财报表现亮眼近期，乐信发布2019年Q4以及2019年全年财报。全年topline方面，由于新消费平台战略，乐信Q4促成借款428亿，同比增长104%；全年促成借款额达1260亿人，同比增长90.6%，超额完成全年预期；全年营收达106亿，同比增长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261351047aee9a78&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{"LX":"乐信"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261351047aee9a78&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2022972607","content_text":"来源：雪球App，作者： 陈达美股投资，（https://xueqiu.com/9598793634/145222117）乐信1.互金行业优质公司，乐信财报表现亮眼近期，乐信发布2019年Q4以及2019年全年财报。全年topline方面，由于新消费平台战略，乐信Q4促成借款428亿，同比增长104%；全年促成借款额达1260亿人，同比增长90.6%，超额完成全年预期；全年营收达106亿，同比增长39.6%；经营毛利50亿，同比增长65.8%。截至2019年底，乐信管理在贷余额606亿，同比增长87%。资产质量表现持续稳健，超过90天的逾期率为1.56%。在用户数据方面，截至2019年Q4，乐信用户达到7330万，同比增长96.5%；授信用户数1940万，同比增长84%；单季活跃用户数700万，同比增长133%，数量和增速均创record high；单季新增活跃用户数210万，同比增长244%，连续两个Q超过200%。当然，市场无比关注Q1疫情对乐信的业务影响。目前来说乐信业务已经恢复到正常水平的90%以上。预计Q1平台促成借款金额将高于320亿，同比增幅将超60%。Q1大概率能维持比较平稳的财务表现。就报表而言，乐信整体表现要远远优于整个在美股上市的其他互金公司。2. 客群质量直接影响互金公司“生死”了解完乐信的财报，我们先来聊聊互金的本质。在市场好的时候，百舸争流，莺莺燕燕，各有各的故事和噱头——大数据AI风控引擎牛逼到飞起；但在市场面临挑战的时候，华尔街就会将所有商业模式的表象撕碎，直达本质，然后以本质给你估值。所有互金公司的业务模式都以会发生坏账的前提来布局，而所有互金业务的核心就是在 （合规的情况下）maximize 利差 和 minimize 坏账之间做取舍。将其掰碎，互金赛道本质上就拼三点，我称之为互金的“铁人三项”——1. 资产（assets）、2. 资金（financing）、3. 风控（risk control）。资产或资产端是指融资端借款人的成色；资金有人也会称之为渠道，是指你的放贷资本从哪来；而风控就是指贷前、贷中与贷后的三阶段决策的各种数据与逻辑。互金公司千千万，而此一家与彼一家的差别，穿过乱花渐欲迷人眼，本质上就是比“铁人三项”。那这三项哪个是核心差别，你可能会不假思索地回答是风控。但干这一行的人会告诉你核心差别其实是资产——因为从长期来看，有什么样的资产就有会什么样的资金，有什么样的资产就会有什么样的风控，资产是“道”，资金与风控是配套的技术性手段。互金弱水三千，首看资产。而资产本质上就是看这个公司的客群，客群决定了他的资产质量。所以资金与风控直接配套客群。你不可能说：我的客群就是专做黑产羊毛党，但通过鹤立鸡群的风控体系可以从他们身上赚到钱——这是无异于与虎谋皮。优质的资产端——优质的客群自身本来就是最强有力的风控。说句略绝对的话——客群直接定义一家互金公司。那啥叫优质的资产端？这个就是各家互金公司资金的判断，他们放心把钱借给谁。如果是在美国，那将客群分层就相对简单，就看FICO Score之类的信用分就好，因为这是一个非常成熟的数据沉淀，虽然不是严格的官方定义。以下是根据FICO分数做出的对客群的区分，仅供参考。当然国内如何判定客群资质，就是另外一套玩法了，我们后面具体说。所以你的资产足够优质，比如清一色super-prime客群，那自然就有资金来找你，而且你就算把风控团队像一锅海鲜一样集体炒了，也完全不用慌。资产足够优质，利润将足够覆盖逾期和坏账。在宏观大势的逆风局里更是如此，由于不同互金公司的客群结构有巨大差异，大家受到的负面影响也大相径庭。比如新冠疫情之下，网贷的借款人可能会出现种种drama，生病、失业、被隔离等种种因素可能导致他们逾期违约。所以市场就担心，他们是不是没有还款能力，互金是不是随时爆发坏账潮。因为很多借款人实际上是借新还旧，一旦续命键坏掉了，逾期率可能要大爆发。但是互金或消费金融这个领域里还有一层嵌套的逻辑 ——因为单笔借款数额不大，所以对于平台的借款人而言，其还款能力的重要性要远远低于其还款意愿的重要性。互金大多坏账是因为借款人不想还了，而非不能还。所以疫情之下并非所有平台都要逾期率大爆发的，那些客群具有强烈还款意愿的公司，就能稳住。那么问题来了，谁是还款意愿强烈的客群？这还真不能机械而量化地进行判断。比如从传统的资产收入原则判断，其实是一件tricky的事情。打个比方，两个同样零存款零资产，不能说月薪15k的客群就比月薪5k的客群优质。因为前者有可能是某位外卖小哥，将一二线城市当成民宿，欠一屁股债回归故里一了百了，你一点儿办法也没有；而后者可能是刚毕业、将扎根一二线城市作为梦想的大学生，虽然现在收入不高，但长期而言，其未来发展路径非常清晰，一眼看到老，确定性非常高。作为人生而言这可能略显波澜不惊，但作为借款客群，波澜不惊是最大的美德。许多互金公司在放贷时有一个核查项目就叫“还款意愿”，此项目一般对应的个人信息是：学籍、工作等等。为了实现稳定增长的人生，后者职场小白的还款意愿要远远大于前者，说白了，他们违约的人生成本——十分巨大。3. 乐信的核心优势，focus in高成长、重信用客群而在我看来，乐信的用户就是这样一群人。了解乐信的都知道，一直以来乐信走的是“跟随客群共同成长”的策略，通过1. 在线广告投放；2. 地推；3. 分期电商，乐信从头到尾就只深耕一种目标人群——“高成长人群”，指90%以上为接受高等教育的年轻白领用户。这个目标客群有其鲜明的画像特征。三个特点：重信用，收入高成长，客群庞大且增长迅猛。据研究机构Aletheia Capital的数据，中国目前受过高等教育的人群大约为1.8亿，每年以近800万人的速度增加（大约为每年的毕业应届生数量），这是一个向前蓄积的增量市场。这里可以参考尼尔森的研究报告，看下这一人群的消费潜力。这样的人群，现在可能只是从你这里申请一笔小额的消费金融贷款，可能只是买个iPhone手机，而过几年他们可能会想买人生第一辆车了，再过几年买房装修云云，后面的价值结构是一条升值曲线。所以乐信“跟随客群共同成长”，贯穿一个城市白领的一生，才谈得上粘性与Lifetime Value。而反过来从风控的角度出发，由于有了这样一个具有长期价值的客群，风控就更有米可炊。因为我是从你刚出道就关注你的，我能积累下维度更宽广、更深度的历史数据——比如你的职场十年小白变油条的成长史——然后根据你的行为数据和资产状况，我其实随时能为你写一部自传。平台能在与客群一起成长的过程中间，发现、鉴别、分析客群的新趋向与新需求，从而创造新的价值。通过一些数据我们也能看到，乐信的目标客群，也就是其“资产”，是一个货币化潜力高，安全边际长厚的多样化组合。一直以来乐信相比于趣店等友商，乐信所谓的take rate较低（趣店在初期take与loan其平十分吓人），这其实也就是货币化程度低，不竭泽而渔、用力过猛。一方面是其effective rate 24%左右的水平是同行衬托下最低水平；而另一方面，其客群对信用的珍惜是另一个原因。这次财报的电话会也有分析师提到这个问题，以促成费用除以新增贷款来算，乐信Q4的 take rate还下降了。管理层的回答是：新获客的客群普遍有提早还款的习惯，而提早还款就会影响费用收入。对的，在狂欢消费的Q4里，乐信的客群还能坚持提早还款，这是珍惜羽毛的人群，而随着职场小白一路成长为行业大咖，将写字楼如丛林的城市作为一生的归宿，他们可以被预测到的货币深化（deepening)的过程，会十分平稳而波澜不惊。当然，还是那句话——作为借款客群，波澜不惊就是最大的美德。4. 结语最后我来总结一下本文的核心观点。互金业务主拼三项，资产、资金、风控。其中资产是真正核心的差异化，有什么样的资产就有匹配什么样的资金和风控。客群可以直接定义一家互金公司。对于互金或者消费金融而言，因为单件贷款额度较低，客群的还款意愿重要性要远远大于客群还款能力的重要性。而有强烈还款意愿的群体，一般通过学籍、工作等判断，就是受过高等教育、初入职场的年轻人。而乐信的客群，正是直接锁定了这样的人群。这是一个货币化潜力高，安全边际长厚的多样化的资产组合。这样的客群给乐信带来了差异化的资产，也决定了其在互金赛道上的持久赛力。利益披露：作者持有乐信多头仓位。行文仓莽，如有不足，请多包涵。如转载，请注明雪球，署名陈达，万分感谢。---------------------------------上证指数@今日话题 @江涛 @梁剑 @Ricky @坚信价值 @不明真相的群众 @招财资本 @刘志超 @西峯@宁静的冬日M @管我财 @TLS美股研究 @啊咪老师 @布衣-淡定从容 @Stevevai1983@Mario @Takun @大苹果的飞飞 @对数资产 @狸哥很懒 @美国消费@仓又加错-Leo @飞刀猩猩诸法空 @被解放的mogwai @forcode @疯投哥 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