又是一年春来到的个人主页 - 老虎社区

又是一年春来到

又是一年春来到

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又是一年春来到

2020-04-02

能信吗能信吗

特朗普称沙、俄将减产，国际油价暴涨逾20%

又是一年春来到

2020-03-27

$道琼斯(.DJI)$预感今天要黄～

又是一年春来到

2020-03-25

感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机…… 转自陈平大佬

又是一年春来到

2020-03-20

$道琼斯(.DJI)$恩今天不简单

又是一年春来到

2020-03-20

属王八乌龟🐢的，把头一缩。来吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

又是一年春来到

2020-03-19

$道琼斯(.DJI)$我们中国18是要发。恭喜发财

又是一年春来到

2020-03-18

$道琼斯(.DJI)$跟老A一样先拉高再跳？

又是一年春来到

2020-03-18

$道琼斯(.DJI)$别装了

又是一年春来到

2020-03-12

三国杀博弈

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-02 22:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月2日，<span>国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1f44dbd2dd9fd607df9b35116c9475\" /></p><p><span>消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。另据沙特通讯社的报道，沙特王储与特朗普就油市问题进行了电话通话。</span></p><p>美股石油股涨幅进一步扩大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>涨14%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167678578","content_text":"4月2日，国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。另据沙特通讯社的报道，沙特王储与特朗普就油市问题进行了电话通话。美股石油股涨幅进一步扩大。斯伦贝谢涨17%，哈里伯顿涨17%，康菲石油涨17%，雪佛龙涨14%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929872373,"gmtCreate":1585311045192,"gmtModify":1704357818629,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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陈平大佬","listText":"感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机……&nbsp; &nbsp;转自 陈平大佬","text":"感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机…… 转自 陈平大佬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920457783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967775153,"gmtCreate":1584712705072,"gmtModify":1704355777652,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>恩 今天不简单","listText":"<a 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价三国战，谁是王中王？ \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 15:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/355472><strong>华夏时报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：马晓霖北京时间3月12日，迫于巨大疫情蔓延压力，美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，宣布中断美国与欧洲大陆客运联系30天，并采取其他应急措施。这意味着美国也将进入“战役”模式，势必加剧经济萎缩预期，反过来进一步冲击一片惨淡的能源市场，使沙特阿拉伯近日发起的油价战前景更加迷离。3月6日，俄罗斯拒绝欧佩克建议，即在未来3个季度维持原有的日均170万桶减产计划，并追加150万通的减产额度，其中沙特为首的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/355472\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdeaef24a10564d5eb2cbffb7917ffd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/355472","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132170112","content_text":"作者：马晓霖北京时间3月12日，迫于巨大疫情蔓延压力，美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，宣布中断美国与欧洲大陆客运联系30天，并采取其他应急措施。这意味着美国也将进入“战役”模式，势必加剧经济萎缩预期，反过来进一步冲击一片惨淡的能源市场，使沙特阿拉伯近日发起的油价战前景更加迷离。3月6日，俄罗斯拒绝欧佩克建议，即在未来3个季度维持原有的日均170万桶减产计划，并追加150万通的减产额度，其中沙特为首的欧佩克成员压缩100万桶，俄罗斯等非欧佩克伙伴压缩50万桶。俄罗斯认为，继续放弃市场份额不仅无助于提升油价，反而容易被美国的页岩油公司钻空子。沙特阿拉伯从来都是能源市场大鳄，既然谈不拢，自然单独干。已做好预案的沙特于7日发起凌厉攻势并双管齐下，宣布将4月份交付的原油价格每桶下调5至8美元，直接向欧洲、亚洲和美洲的众多买家让利，并将产量提高至1000万桶乃至1350万桶。世界石油市场原本就供大于求，3月第一周美国石油产量又达到每天1310万桶的历史新高，新冠肺炎疫情又严重拖累中国等全球经济增长贡献大户的后腿，全球经济总体疲软态势已板上钉钉，能源需求明显锐减。在此背景下，沙特降价增产无疑加剧市场存量过剩局面，推动油价大幅下跌。9日市场一开盘，伦敦原油期货价格每桶从45.27桶暴跌31%而达到31美元，创下1991年以来单日跌幅最惨纪录。受疫情加剧和油价暴跌双双冲击，美国、英国、德国、法国等主要经济体股市狂跌近8个百分点而触发熔断机制。石油和金融双震荡的引爆者之一沙特损失同样惨重，折价出售和增加产量除了能扩大市场份额，对收入增加助益不大。因此，坐拥国家资产半壁江山的沙美石油公司股票惨遭抛售，9日开盘暴跌10%，收盘时直接冲破发行价而被迫暂停交易。仅此一笔导致沙特财富缩水几千亿美元。沙特这次破釜沉舟，意在依靠比较充足的美元储备和相对低廉的产油成本，一箭双雕，既对付俄罗斯也抗击美国，依靠漫灌倾销守住市场份额，内保财富和政权安全，外控能源与地缘话语权。事实上，沙特是将2014年的油价大战轮盘赌又玩一次，只是这次的因素更为复杂。上次将油价腰斩，俄罗斯的角色并不突出，沙特目标直指美国页岩气为代表的新能源，不甘心坐视其逐步强大而取代传统碳氢能源，于是企图利用价格优势击溃襁褓中的美国页岩气公司，使其变成逐利资本的鸡肋而被放弃。一旦摧垮页岩气能新能源产业，全球被迫继续依赖传统石油和天然气，储量巨大的沙特就能一直财大气粗，对内维持巩固政权的高收入高福利，对外继续获得美国的支持与呵护。此轮油价战，俄罗斯貌似与沙特争夺市场份额，实则都项庄舞剑意在沛公，要联手干掉已负债累累的美国新能源企业。从地缘博弈角度看，这也是俄罗斯对美国最近因委内瑞拉危机而制裁俄罗斯石油公司的报复。从市场布局看，虽然似乎沙特在抢夺俄罗斯的欧洲市场地盘，但是，俄罗斯能源出口结构中份额更多的是天然气。所以，与其说是沙特与俄罗斯角逐市场，还不如说是两强唱双簧，弥补空白封死美国新能源企业的活路。部分观察家也注意到，沙特在石油市场冲拳出击的同时，国内也传出一件大新闻，即掌握实权的王储穆罕默德逮捕包括前王储纳伊夫在内的数名实力派亲王，他们都属于30多人组成的王室“效忠委员会”，对王储选拔和国王立废至关重要。沙特坊间一度再次盛传，穆罕默德有可能近期登基而继续“清君侧”。然而，萨勒曼国王很快公开露面并亲自主持内阁会议，“政变”、“上位”等谣言不攻自破。其实，抓捕纳伊夫等人也是配合油价大战的重要步骤，无非敲山震虎进一步巩固王储地位。两年半以前，萨勒曼为了力推政经改革而拘禁一大批亲王高官，收缴其浮财充盈国库，警告其闭嘴不得干政。这次发动油价战势必导致收入减少，财政紧张，沙特各部委已相继接到压缩开支20%—30%的通知，这种折腾必然引发家族内部质疑和非议，对萨勒曼的地位、威信和能力构成挑战。因此，这一轮油价大战也有萨勒曼倒逼改革，加速戒除“油瘾”而顺利推进经济多元化结构挑战的内部因素。靠油吃油，难保沙特长治久安。沙、俄、美三强油博弈究竟延续多久且以什么方式结束？现在很难预测。一般认为，沙特和俄罗斯都严重依赖能源产业，但是，俄罗斯由于天然气所占比重较大且并非高福利国家，抗压能力要比沙特更强。另外，双方财政对油价的敏感度也有差异，2020年沙特财政预算基于55美元的油价制定，俄罗斯则低至42.4美元而更有耐受力。但是，沙特外汇储备和海外资产又比俄罗斯更有底气。因此，双方争夺市场或曰联手重挫美国新能源的僵持可能要延续一段时间。油价战开打后，特朗普就和沙特领导人通话磋商。有消息说，特朗普要求萨勒曼尽快结束低价漫灌，因为他要保收入、保业绩、拼大选。尽管特朗普也不喜欢页岩气等新能源，但是美国现在也是油气出口大国，腰斩油价这把刀里外都对美国构成伤害。当然，沙特安抚美国的方式很多，只要能确保石油收入永续不断这条经济和政权生命线，大不了每年向美国掏几百亿保护费买军火就是了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":923298583,"gmtCreate":1585839205742,"gmtModify":1704359345142,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能信吗能信吗","listText":"能信吗能信吗","text":"能信吗能信吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923298583","repostId":"1167678578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167678578","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1585838317,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167678578?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-02 22:38","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特朗普称沙、俄将减产，国际油价暴涨逾20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167678578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月2日，国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。","content":"<p>4月2日，<span>国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1f44dbd2dd9fd607df9b35116c9475\" /></p><p><span>消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。另据沙特通讯社的报道，沙特王储与特朗普就油市问题进行了电话通话。</span></p><p>美股石油股涨幅进一步扩大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>涨14%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普称沙、俄将减产，国际油价暴涨逾20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普称沙、俄将减产，国际油价暴涨逾20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-02 22:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月2日，<span>国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1f44dbd2dd9fd607df9b35116c9475\" /></p><p><span>消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。另据沙特通讯社的报道，沙特王储与特朗普就油市问题进行了电话通话。</span></p><p>美股石油股涨幅进一步扩大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>涨17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>涨14%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167678578","content_text":"4月2日，国际油价盘中异动，美、布两油直线暴拉，均涨逾20%。消息面上，有报道称美国总统特朗普预计沙特和俄罗斯将减产1000-1500万桶/日。特朗普称如果两国实施减产，将对石油和天然气行业大有好处。另据沙特通讯社的报道，沙特王储与特朗普就油市问题进行了电话通话。美股石油股涨幅进一步扩大。斯伦贝谢涨17%，哈里伯顿涨17%，康菲石油涨17%，雪佛龙涨14%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920457783,"gmtCreate":1585122090342,"gmtModify":1704356980473,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机……&nbsp; &nbsp;转自 陈平大佬","listText":"感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机……&nbsp; &nbsp;转自 陈平大佬","text":"感觉就像鹅城老百姓都知道黄四郎坏，可是都只能任他盘剥，因为真没人打得过他。直到张麻子来了，虽然大家面上都还不敢出来、都跟着黄四郎骂张麻子，但人心已经浮动，如果一旦有一天鹅城人真开始认为“黄四郎会输”的话，那黄四郎的无敌堡垒也没看上去那么坚固，这一切往往只需要一个契机…… 转自 陈平大佬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920457783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967786173,"gmtCreate":1584700942992,"gmtModify":1704355703152,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"属王八乌龟🐢的，把头一缩。来吧","listText":"属王八乌龟🐢的，把头一缩。来吧","text":"属王八乌龟🐢的，把头一缩。来吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967786173","repostId":"1198822244","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198822244","pubTimestamp":1584675724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198822244?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-20 11:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"意外！中国不降息：非常时期的一个重大信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198822244","media":"国民经略","summary":"危机，考验着每一个国家。","content":"<p><b>01</b></p><p>3月20日，央行发布最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：</p><p>1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.05%，上次为4.05%；5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.75%，上次为4.75%。</p><p>这意味着，出乎市场意料之外，无论实体利率（1年期LPR）还是楼市利率（5年期LPR），都未进行任何调整，市场降息预期全面落空。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc491998d0b94d6a01b68d72864241c4\" /></p><p><b>换言之，央行并未进行任何降息，政策定力之稳，可见一斑。</b></p><p>要知道，最近一个月，全球金融市场可谓天翻地覆。</p><p>美股熔断一次性上演了四次，美联储再次祭出了「零利率+量化宽松（QE）」的危机救市模式，从英国到澳大利亚再到韩国，全球一遍「大水漫灌」之声。</p><p><b>股神巴菲特活了89岁都没见过的场面，我们一次性见了N次。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46dc93ab86daff0ae8f43d3d149a496\" /></p><p>这种背景下，全球已经重回危机模式。</p><p>从亚洲到欧美，多国利率已经降低到0利率区间，而资本市场依旧上演「过山车」行情，市场对未来信心前所未有之匮乏。（参阅《降息到0！时隔12年，全球重回危机模式》）</p><p>即便如此，<b>中国央行依旧岿然不动，保持了难得的政策定力，更成为全球难得的一股清流。</b></p><p>虽说LPR利率每月都会调整一次，但在全球金融动荡的非常时期，依旧保持了相当的政策定力，释放的信号自然非同寻常。</p><p><b>02</b></p><p>为什么会这样？</p><p>这一次，政策定力如此之强，确实出乎许多人的意外，但如果了解背后的政经大背景，就明白其中的关键所在。</p><p><b>其一，中国抗疫已经取得阶段性胜利。</b></p><p>目前，虽然境外输入风险不容低估，但湖北地区连续多天出现0新增，意味着形势正在全面向好。</p><p>显然，形势逐步向好，危机正在慢慢消退，疫情带来的短期冲击有所缓解，没必要再下猛药。</p><p><b>其二，我们的政策基调一向是「以我为主」，因为经济环境不同、发展阶段不同、物价汇率形势不同。</b></p><p>除了经济背景之外，这背后，还存在两大因素的掣肘。</p><p>一个是物价，2月份CPI同比上涨5.2%，依旧处于近八年高位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9dc01358615c81beb1b29f46d974ae\" /></p><p>另一个是汇率，随着全球避险需求陡增，美元指数大幅上涨，离岸人民币回落到7.10以上。</p><p><b>其三，稳经济，同样要防范金融风险，这两个目标同样重要。</b></p><p>房地产，的确是刺激经济的利器，但负作用同样突出。房价大涨，不仅会影响社会民生，而且还会带来巨大的债务负担和金融风险。</p><p>要知道，2019年我国居民杠杆率已经攀升到60%左右，超过世界平均水平。虽然不及发达国家，但相比2008年，已经攀升了40个百分点。</p><p>所以，避免大水漫灌，尤其防止挽救中小企业的货币之水溢流到房地产，就变得至关重要。</p><p><b>要知道，全球资本市场动荡，发达国家拼命「比烂」，泥沙俱下，谁能坚守基本盘，谁能保留更多筹码，谁就能抢得未来先机。</b></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>不仅大水漫灌没有来，连许多人众口一声的「新四万亿」大投资同样没有出现。</p><p><b>有新闻说，各地公布的总投资计划高达50万亿，比2008年的「四万亿大投资」有过之而无不及。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8534049b8c0ca20f3f7160576afe35c0\" /></p><p><b>事实上，这是彻头彻尾的误解。</b></p><p>50万亿数字不假，但这并非一次性投资，而是覆盖未来数年的总投资计划。单纯看2020年，投资规模仅为7.6万亿，相比过去几年并未出现大幅扩张。</p><p>同时，与2008年的四万亿大投资不同，当时以「铁公基」（铁路、公路、基础设施）为主，而这一次除了传统基建之外，侧重点变成了以5G 网络、城市轨道交通、数据中心、工业互联网为代表的新基建。</p><p>这是最大的不同。</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>楼市会怎样？</b></p><p>中国楼市是典型的政策市，楼市受制于信贷和调控政策，只要信贷及调控不发生重大变化，楼市很难激起水花。</p><p><b>从降息来看，且不说本次央行按兵不动，从新LPR模式诞生以来，利率就一直未出现大幅下调。</b></p><p>去年至今，实体利率（1年期LPR）仅下降4次，累计下降26个基点，楼市利率（5年期LPR）仅仅下调2次，累计下降10个基点。</p><p>要知道，一次标准降息是25个基点，美联储最近半个月狂降150个基点，我们的降息连零头都不到。</p><p>从历史来看，<b>2008年仅下半年就累计降息了180个基点，而2015年的5轮降息累计下调超过100个基点。</b></p><p>当时无论实体经济还是楼市都能一体享受降息利好，这一次楼市降息聊胜于无。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706450fc102faa8e5a1014014507489b\" /></p><p><b>同时，一些城市的楼市松绑政策遭遇了「一日游」。</b></p><p>从驻马店的两成首付到广州的公寓松绑，从济南先行区的变相松绑限购到浙商行、湖州银行频传的2成首付，无一例外都遭遇政策被撤回或辟谣的尴尬。</p><p><b>这说明，稳楼市是必要的，但刺激模式仍未开启。</b></p><p>可以说，旨在松绑以稳定市场的政策一路绿灯，而旨在刺激力图制造新一轮大涨的政策则被坚决喊停。</p><p>可以断定，只要信贷的闸门不开，只要地产的大坝仍在坚挺，楼市迎来新一轮大涨的概率并不高。反之同理。</p>","source":"GMJL","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外！中国不降息：非常时期的一个重大信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-20 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PyOtpdHbxevLhaKLCooAww><strong>国民经略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>013月20日，央行发布最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.05%，上次为4.05%；5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.75%，上次为4.75%。这意味着，出乎市场意料之外，无论实体利率（1年期LPR）还是楼市利率（5年期LPR），都未进行任何调整，市场降息预期全面落空。换言之，央行并未进行任何降息，政策定力之稳，可见一斑。要知道，最近一个月，全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PyOtpdHbxevLhaKLCooAww\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PyOtpdHbxevLhaKLCooAww","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198822244","content_text":"013月20日，央行发布最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.05%，上次为4.05%；5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为4.75%，上次为4.75%。这意味着，出乎市场意料之外，无论实体利率（1年期LPR）还是楼市利率（5年期LPR），都未进行任何调整，市场降息预期全面落空。换言之，央行并未进行任何降息，政策定力之稳，可见一斑。要知道，最近一个月，全球金融市场可谓天翻地覆。美股熔断一次性上演了四次，美联储再次祭出了「零利率+量化宽松（QE）」的危机救市模式，从英国到澳大利亚再到韩国，全球一遍「大水漫灌」之声。股神巴菲特活了89岁都没见过的场面，我们一次性见了N次。这种背景下，全球已经重回危机模式。从亚洲到欧美，多国利率已经降低到0利率区间，而资本市场依旧上演「过山车」行情，市场对未来信心前所未有之匮乏。（参阅《降息到0！时隔12年，全球重回危机模式》）即便如此，中国央行依旧岿然不动，保持了难得的政策定力，更成为全球难得的一股清流。虽说LPR利率每月都会调整一次，但在全球金融动荡的非常时期，依旧保持了相当的政策定力，释放的信号自然非同寻常。02为什么会这样？这一次，政策定力如此之强，确实出乎许多人的意外，但如果了解背后的政经大背景，就明白其中的关键所在。其一，中国抗疫已经取得阶段性胜利。目前，虽然境外输入风险不容低估，但湖北地区连续多天出现0新增，意味着形势正在全面向好。显然，形势逐步向好，危机正在慢慢消退，疫情带来的短期冲击有所缓解，没必要再下猛药。其二，我们的政策基调一向是「以我为主」，因为经济环境不同、发展阶段不同、物价汇率形势不同。除了经济背景之外，这背后，还存在两大因素的掣肘。一个是物价，2月份CPI同比上涨5.2%，依旧处于近八年高位。另一个是汇率，随着全球避险需求陡增，美元指数大幅上涨，离岸人民币回落到7.10以上。其三，稳经济，同样要防范金融风险，这两个目标同样重要。房地产，的确是刺激经济的利器，但负作用同样突出。房价大涨，不仅会影响社会民生，而且还会带来巨大的债务负担和金融风险。要知道，2019年我国居民杠杆率已经攀升到60%左右，超过世界平均水平。虽然不及发达国家，但相比2008年，已经攀升了40个百分点。所以，避免大水漫灌，尤其防止挽救中小企业的货币之水溢流到房地产，就变得至关重要。要知道，全球资本市场动荡，发达国家拼命「比烂」，泥沙俱下，谁能坚守基本盘，谁能保留更多筹码，谁就能抢得未来先机。03不仅大水漫灌没有来，连许多人众口一声的「新四万亿」大投资同样没有出现。有新闻说，各地公布的总投资计划高达50万亿，比2008年的「四万亿大投资」有过之而无不及。事实上，这是彻头彻尾的误解。50万亿数字不假，但这并非一次性投资，而是覆盖未来数年的总投资计划。单纯看2020年，投资规模仅为7.6万亿，相比过去几年并未出现大幅扩张。同时，与2008年的四万亿大投资不同，当时以「铁公基」（铁路、公路、基础设施）为主，而这一次除了传统基建之外，侧重点变成了以5G 网络、城市轨道交通、数据中心、工业互联网为代表的新基建。这是最大的不同。04楼市会怎样？中国楼市是典型的政策市，楼市受制于信贷和调控政策，只要信贷及调控不发生重大变化，楼市很难激起水花。从降息来看，且不说本次央行按兵不动，从新LPR模式诞生以来，利率就一直未出现大幅下调。去年至今，实体利率（1年期LPR）仅下降4次，累计下降26个基点，楼市利率（5年期LPR）仅仅下调2次，累计下降10个基点。要知道，一次标准降息是25个基点，美联储最近半个月狂降150个基点，我们的降息连零头都不到。从历史来看，2008年仅下半年就累计降息了180个基点，而2015年的5轮降息累计下调超过100个基点。当时无论实体经济还是楼市都能一体享受降息利好，这一次楼市降息聊胜于无。同时，一些城市的楼市松绑政策遭遇了「一日游」。从驻马店的两成首付到广州的公寓松绑，从济南先行区的变相松绑限购到浙商行、湖州银行频传的2成首付，无一例外都遭遇政策被撤回或辟谣的尴尬。这说明，稳楼市是必要的，但刺激模式仍未开启。可以说，旨在松绑以稳定市场的政策一路绿灯，而旨在刺激力图制造新一轮大涨的政策则被坚决喊停。可以断定，只要信贷的闸门不开，只要地产的大坝仍在坚挺，楼市迎来新一轮大涨的概率并不高。反之同理。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967775153,"gmtCreate":1584712705072,"gmtModify":1704355777652,"author":{"id":"3441541406397540","authorId":"3441541406397540","name":"又是一年春来到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddbbe1ad783b8d78fc6381eb22ca17c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>恩 今天不简单","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>恩 今天不简单","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$恩 今天不简单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967775153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}