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做空分析师
2020-06-18
$中芯国际(00981)$
最近长得好猛。有兄弟打算继续加仓的吗?
做空分析师
2020-03-20
$中国铁塔(00788)$
跌停又涨停,玩出了A股的感觉。
做空分析师
2020-03-12
巴神,航空股还有戏吗?
巴菲特:美股现在是“祸不单行” 但比不上1987年股灾
做空分析师
2020-02-18
港股还理性?这作者没炒几年股吧
港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?
做空分析师
2018-12-12
$中国铁塔(00788)$ 还有新股认购拿到现在的朋友吗?
做空分析师
2018-11-27
$小米集团-W(01810)$ 阿斗
做空分析师
2018-08-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$我等着周一看好戏了。。。
做空分析师
2018-08-08
$中国铁塔(00788)$建议大家沉住气,不要卖。
做空分析师
2018-01-29
这破股做多做空都亏
$网易(NTES)$涨跌完全没规律
这破股做多做空都亏
做空分析师
2017-12-14
$网易(NTES)$腾讯霸道了十年没有对手,这次在吃鸡手游上是彻底翻车了。完全竞争不过网易了
做空分析师
2017-11-30
新闻说明天除权
$网易(NTES)$ 不出意外除权后回来一波大跌。可以适当做空。
新闻说明天除权
做空分析师
2017-11-21
$网易(NTES)$ 我就看谁敢高位接盘。。。
做空分析师
2017-11-14
$京东(JD)$ 谁知道为什么会变成这样?
做空分析师
2017-11-11
$京东(JD)$ 财报后准备起飞了,大家准备数钱吧!
做空分析师
2017-11-11
$京东(JD)$ 起飞了!短短十一天就突破900亿销售额了!
做空分析师
2017-11-07
大家猜猜,这次财报能盈利吗
$京东(JD)$ 如果能实现前面盈利,那么大概率上涨是没跑了。如果仍然不能盈利,估计会重复3个月前的悲剧。
大家猜猜,这次财报能盈利吗
做空分析师
2017-11-06
$京东(JD)$ 强东太低调了。来学丁磊发表一场公开演讲,股票就能大涨
做空分析师
2017-11-01
$京东(JD)$ 请开始跳水表演
做空分析师
2017-10-30
我们可能都被玩了
$京东(JD)$ 连跌大半月月,严重怀疑一些机构提前知道了这次财报不好,获利撤出了。中概股套路太深了!
我们可能都被玩了
做空分析师
2017-10-27
$京东(JD)$ 不是不好,而是整个大盘已经到了拐点,特别是科技股已经到了强弩之末。下一步基本就是谁发财报谁崩盘。我们jd这俩月跌了这么多,算是先走一步了,免得到时候再发财报暴跌10个点。
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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特:美股现在是“祸不单行” 但比不上1987年股灾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 14:37 北京时间 <a href=http://stock.eastmoney.com/a/202003121415958510.html><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“股神”沃伦·巴菲特日前表示,新冠病毒疫情和国际油价“自由落体式”下跌对美国股市来说可谓是“祸不单行”,但1987年10月的股灾更可怕。\n“股神”沃伦·巴菲特(Warren E。 Buffett) 日前在接受雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)采访时表示,新冠病毒疫情和国际油价“自由落体式”下跌对美国股市来说可谓是“祸不单行”(a one-two punch),但1987年10月的股灾更可怕。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://stock.eastmoney.com/a/202003121415958510.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"http://stock.eastmoney.com/a/202003121415958510.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2018539520","content_text":"“股神”沃伦·巴菲特日前表示,新冠病毒疫情和国际油价“自由落体式”下跌对美国股市来说可谓是“祸不单行”,但1987年10月的股灾更可怕。\n“股神”沃伦·巴菲特(Warren E。 Buffett) 日前在接受雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)采访时表示,新冠病毒疫情和国际油价“自由落体式”下跌对美国股市来说可谓是“祸不单行”(a one-two punch),但1987年10月的股灾更可怕。\n“现在的情况和1987年10月有点像,但还没那么糟,”巴菲特周二对雅虎财经表示,“新冠疫情和周末石油界发生的事情碰在了一起,可谓是‘祸不单行’。”\n“只要你一直在(市场)这里,什么事情都会遇上。这次(这种情况)我也是活了89岁头一次碰上。市场总是瞬息万变的,人们对新闻的反应总是很大的。”他说。\n巴菲特说的1987年10月股灾是指当年的10月19日,这也是一个“黑色星期一”。当天道琼斯工业指数狂跌22.6%,市值蒸发约5000亿美元,相当于当年美国国内生产总值(GDP)的1/8。\n对于这次暴跌,分析师认为原因有三:一是美联储持续上调利率,从年初的6%上调至9月的7.3%,10月14日美国公布的贸易赤字超出市场预期,进一步推高市场利率;二是美国国会提出立法,拟终止对公司收购融资的税收优惠,引发资金撤离;三是程序化交易开始兴起,机构投资者采用组合保险策略,在市场下跌时同时卖出期货与现货,容易导致市场流动性匮乏。\n1987年10月的股灾促使纽约证券交易所推出了熔断机制。1988年2月,纽交所熔断机制出台,10月开始实施。之后几经修改,2012年,标普500指数取代道琼斯工业指数被设置为熔断基准指数。在2020年3月9日之前,美股只在1997年10月27日触发过熔断机制,当天,道琼斯指数收跌7.2%,收于7161.14点。\n3月9日,全球金融市场再遇“黑色星期一”。受“欧佩克+”联盟减产谈判破裂、沙特宣布增产的影响,4月交货的西德克萨斯州轻质原油(WTI)价格在当天上午亚洲交易时段跌破30美元/桶,跌幅超过33%,超过1991年海湾战争时创下的最大跌幅。\n原油价格的暴跌迅速蔓延到股票市场,欧美股市尤其惨烈。美国标普500指数开盘仅四分钟就下挫逾7%,20多年来首次触发熔断机制。截至周一收盘,道琼斯指数跌超2000点,跌幅达到7.8%,标普500指数跌7.6%,纳斯达克指数跌7.3%。在欧洲,德国DAX指数跌7.9%,法国CAC40指数跌8.4%,英国富时100指数跌7.5%。\n经历了周二的反弹后,周三美股再次遭遇重挫,道指大跌近1500点。截至收盘,道指报23553.22点,跌5.9%,距2月12日创下的历史高点,已累计下跌逾20%,从技术上说进入熊市,这意味着此轮始于2009年的美股牛市正式终结。\n不过,据报道,本周股市大跌中,巴菲特逢低吸纳了达美航空的股票,这或许意味着他有信心航空板块会从疫情中恢复元气。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917453478,"gmtCreate":1582040110694,"gmtModify":1704345586914,"author":{"id":"3437088287293499","authorId":"3437088287293499","name":"做空分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8125b15c73cf8cf25df8c027e4eb5417","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437088287293499","idStr":"3437088287293499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"港股还理性?这作者没炒几年股吧","listText":"港股还理性?这作者没炒几年股吧","text":"港股还理性?这作者没炒几年股吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917453478","repostId":"1153802934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153802934","pubTimestamp":1582031989,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153802934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-18 21:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153802934","media":"格隆汇","summary":"可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。","content":"<p><span>作者 | 汉阳树</span></p>\n<p><span>最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。</span></b><span>港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66346cb263da8ea512caf3764e5a0336\"></p>\n<p><span>其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。</span></p>\n<p><span>那么,</span><span><b>今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>1</span></p>\n<p><span>要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。</span></p>\n<p><span>导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。</span></p>\n<p><span>那当下还有什么?</span></p>\n<p><b><span>从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。</span></b><span>正好,今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。</span><b><span>苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1f50bc8781e0ee0ddba093dd6e1398\"></p>\n<p><span>注意另外一个东西,</span><span><b>今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4388dfa1c553cd92b3a90bb9b9a7d36\"></p>\n<p><b><span>跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第一件事,</span></b><span>这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第二件事</span></b><span>,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第三件事,</span></b><span>昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。</span></p>\n<p><span>2</span></p>\n<p><span>面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。</span></p>\n<p><span>港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。</span></p>\n<p><span>热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>另外,港股的基本仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌了2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>跌了2.78%。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>A股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。</span><b><span>这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23240a0357ad89a12b8ebb95f0c01fe\"></p>\n<p><span>至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5972199c47787e13c05a9ce91308d1f1\"></p>\n<p><span>还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a412993c90f28569b50451bc43e3e6\"></p>\n<p><span>相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>3</span></p>\n<p><b><span>央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。</span></p>\n<p><span>那中美关系呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。</span></p>\n<p><span>其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。</span></b><span>切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。</span></p>\n<p><span>就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。</span></p>\n<p><span>只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。</span></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股大跌,A股飘红,谁错了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-18 21:19 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06098b48e39bd8440d2f72717a1ba5a0","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/348361","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1153802934","content_text":"作者 | 汉阳树\n最近的行情涨得让人目瞪口呆,无论是A股,还是港股,还是美股,当然,最夸张还是要属我们的创业板,涨得简直让人忘记了疫情这件事。\n但今天出现了不和谐的声音,今天港A分道扬镳了。港股大跌1.54%,结束了2月3日以来的反弹,A股上午虽然跌了,但下午还是飘红了,创业板更是大涨1个点,牛气不减。\n\n其实今天与A股分道扬镳的,还不只是港股,日股跌了1.4%,韩股跌了1.48%,欧洲这会也是绿的,美股看期指,今晚难逃低开。\n我们知道,这波行情让人目瞪口呆(由此也可见,市场的学习效率,A股被教育了近30年,港股美股都是百年,市场应对这类事件已经不是小孩子了),不断上扬的收益,固然让人觉得美好,却同时让人觉得惴惴不安:谁都知道美好总是短暂的。\n那么,今天的分道扬镳,究竟谁错了呢?\n1\n要弄清楚这个问题,先要揪出今天海外普跌的罪魁祸首。\n导致今天海外普跌的原因,是国外疫情失控吗?没看到明显的证据,我觉得像中国这样重要的经济体,市场都扛过了,疫情对市场来说,已经不够刺激了。\n那当下还有什么?\n从恒指成分股来看,今天跌得最猛的就是舜宇和瑞声,电子板块。正好,今天苹果发了一个指引,它预计公司一季度的收入会低于之前的指引,上个月苹果说一季度销售收入在630亿到670亿美元之间。苹果也是第一家美国公司,称业绩将受疫情影响而低于之前预期。苹果如此,其他手机厂商也不会好到哪去。\n但是,我觉得苹果的这一指引不应过分夸大,因为这个影响,应该在预料之中。就拿我们的这个春运量来看,一方面断了苹果的需求,一方面影响苹果的供应链。所以,这一指引并不是什么新鲜的东西,只不过就是苹果官方确认了一下。\n\n注意另外一个东西,今天除了股市跌外,人民币也跌了,重新跌破了7。\n\n跟人民币有关的,自然而然会想到中美。\n梳理一下这周的信息,果然,美国的动作很多。\n第一件事,这件事上周日就有了,特朗普政府正在考虑停止LEAP 1C飞机发动机对中国的销售。LEAP 1C是GE跟法国的SAFRAN合资的一家公司的产品,专门为生产C919中型客机而设计,而且是目前C919唯一发动机供应。也就是说,如果LEAP 1C发动机停售,C919的生产可能无限期停摆。\n第二件事,昨天早上我就看到了,但似乎今天才传起来,就是美国取消了25个经济体的WTO发展中国家优惠待遇,其中包括中国和中国香港,这标志着往后在与中国的贸易中,可能就不再适用“特殊和差别待遇”,而按照发达国家标准进行。\n第三件事,昨天晚上的事,据相关报道,美国商务部正在起草对所谓外国直接产品规定进行调整的计划,这一规定限制外国企业将美国技术用于军事或国家安全产品。根据知情人士,如果这一调整通过,世界各地的芯片企业要在获得美国商务部的允许下,才能使用美国设备生产供应给华为的芯片。很明显,非常直观的,如果这一调整通过,台积电向华为提供芯片将受限。可以看出,这一新举措目标明确,就是试图通过这些措施,切断中国在关键半导体技术的渠道。\n所以,我觉得今天,苹果的情绪因素有,但中美关系的微妙同样不容低估。\n2\n面对这一不确定性,港股与A股的表现完全不同。\n港股比较老实,如果美国趁火打劫,影响还是有的,所以先跌再说。\n热门的股票里,舜宇跌得比较多,瑞声跌得比较多,另外引人注意的就是中芯国际,今天一度扑街了10个点。说起来也有意思,看最近的投行报告,几乎所有的外资行都看空中芯国际,几乎所有的内资行都看好中芯,这种分歧,宛如当年的长城汽车。\n另外,港股的基本仓腾讯跌了2%,汇丰跌了2.78%。\nA股就完全不同了,比如昨天传可能停售发动机,大飞机板块几乎涨停。这就是大A的逻辑,你停售,我国产替代。\n\n至于今天,一个中芯倒下了,下午几乎是千万个A股中芯站起来了,你限制,我国产替代。\n\n还比如,稀土,基本每次中美关系起微妙变化时,稀土都要涨波,言下之意,来而不往非礼也。\n\n相比港股的老实,A股的逻辑洋溢着可爱的乐观,这也并非坏事,因为早晚,主动或被迫,我们都要走向国产替代这条路,最终一定是有大鱼走出来,即使会死掉无数的小鱼。\n只是乐观归乐观,可爱归可爱,一个阶段只能支撑一个阶段的估值,太过了,清算就会来临。A股的乐观取决于央妈的水,以及事态发展的程度。\n3\n央妈的水应该是不用太担心的,后天是LPR报价形成日,从之前的MLF执行利率看,LPR下降是大概率事件。\n而从2月15日,央妈在应对疫情联防机制新闻发布会上的表态看,央妈承认有通胀压力,但表示中国绝对不会出现大规模通胀,这表明央妈对通胀的容忍度会提高,宽松的货币政策不会马上转向。\n那中美关系呢?\n疫情期间,美国仍然在搞事,大有趁火打劫的意思。这也再次表明,中美的关系再无可能回到从前,这不是一个短期的结论,而是未来很长一段时间的结论。\n其实认识到这点后,一切也不会是那么糟糕。\n需知美国并不是铁板一块,在高呼整体的国家利益背后,其实是各个分裂的利益。切断中国关键技术的接触,是政客满足选民的需求,实现的是政客的利益,而非整个美国人的利益。\n就好比美国政府想停售发动机,GE就提出抗议了,因为这损害了它的经济利益,而发动机另一主人SAFRAN背后的法国政府也不大可能答应。所以,我们要做的,就是把朋友搞得多多的。\n另外一点,打铁最终是需要自身硬。疫情本是内忧,如果美国借机生事,可以说是又增了一道外患。内忧外患之下,只有内部深化改革,释放出新的红利。这点上,央妈放水是远远不够的。\n所以,可以说港股是对的,因为港股一直就是如此理性,理性的让人觉得可怕,它不愿意担一丝的不确定性。\n但也可以说A股是对的,因为A股相信,相信央妈会进一步放水,相信主动或被迫下的政策利好会发生,相信国运下的国产替代一定会发生。当然,最主要还是第一个相信,第二个相信里的政策释放至少会延续到两会。\n只有当这一相信开始逆转,或者估值已经高到这些信仰都无法覆盖的时候,A股才会由乐观转向恐慌,目前还没看到这一迹象。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352704,"gmtCreate":1544607700748,"gmtModify":1704783592853,"author":{"id":"3437088287293499","authorId":"3437088287293499","name":"做空分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8125b15c73cf8cf25df8c027e4eb5417","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437088287293499","idStr":"3437088287293499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$中国铁塔(00788)$ 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