油和黄金的个人主页 - 老虎社区

油和黄金

油和黄金

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IP属地：四川

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2020-12-18

大家注意：中国的宁德时代的锂电技术已经有巨大突破（续航1000公里，使用20年，前8年的储电量0衰竭，充电1小时跑80公里）。氢气电池也达不到这个指标，且氢气的转换率远不能及，换算成每公里价格是锂电池的3—5倍，氢气企业都在退市边缘了。请中国股民要理智。我叫杨成贵

2020-12-18

大家注意：中国的宁德时代的锂电技术已经有巨大突破（续航1000公里，使用20年，前8年的储电量0衰竭，充电1小时跑80公里）。氢气电池也达不到这个指标，且氢气的转换率远不能及，换算成每公里价格是锂电池的3—5倍，氢气企业都在退市边缘了。请中国股民要理智。我叫杨成贵

2020-12-18

大家注意：中国的宁德时代的锂电技术已经有巨大突破（续航1000公里，使用20年，前8年的储电量0衰竭，充电1小时跑80公里）。氢气电池也达不到这个指标，且氢气的转换率远不能及，换算成每公里价格是锂电池的3—5倍，氢气企业都在退市边缘了。请中国股民要理智。我叫杨成贵

2020-11-18

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$我在2.9万点，就开始了“避险”模式

2020-11-17

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$你们的脑壳里装的是狗屎吗？这个股票有退市风险，你们没有了解过美股的退市规则吗？一帮**

2020-07-04

末哦哦0

突然变脸！地产板块暴涨1000亿，发生了什么?

2020-02-20

$普拉格能源(PLUG)$ 10000.那也不是什么不可能的事。拭目以待吧!

2020-02-19

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ 好恐怖。飞流直下三千尺！

2020-02-14

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ 大盘已经多次创历史新高了，我不敢再买了，买点黄金避险。

2020-02-14

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ 一旦挂上，就难以

2018-03-28

今

抱歉，原内容已删除

2018-03-27

$DRDGOLD Ltd ADS(DRD)菜鸟求教:美股的平仓线是多少？(未加杠杆的前提下)

2018-03-24

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$告“魔法商缘”，不懂就不要在这里乱发帖，不要误导别人以为你是傻❌

2018-03-07

$亚星锚链(601890)$ 关关雎鸠在河之洲，窈窕淑女君子好逑

2017-12-04

$金凰珠宝(KGJI)$ 半仓做空，赌(等)的是美国股市的灾难日。富贵险中求！

2017-09-05

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$ 本人做空了哈！给你们一个警告。

2017-09-02

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$ 空仓，等待机会中

2017-09-01

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$ 小赚一笔，走了，留下的发财哈！

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>你们的脑壳里装的是狗屎吗？这个股票有退市风险，你们没有了解过美股的退市规则吗？一帮**","text":"$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$你们的脑壳里装的是狗屎吗？这个股票有退市风险，你们没有了解过美股的退市规则吗？一帮**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307413682","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548167151010048","authorId":"3548167151010048","name":"川普之声","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd9d7d1ffc3d301428e721d266234f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548167151010048","authorIdStr":"3548167151010048"},"content":"吃饭有噎死的风险","text":"吃饭有噎死的风险","html":"吃饭有噎死的风险"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940679175,"gmtCreate":1593860366097,"gmtModify":1704203284864,"author":{"id":"3436969944328977","authorId":"3436969944328977","name":"油和黄金","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/67682f6f65e25b801e6f021ecc52e9da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3436969944328977","authorIdStr":"3436969944328977"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"末哦哦0","listText":"末哦哦0","text":"末哦哦0","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940679175","repostId":"2048596197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2048596197","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1593650023,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2048596197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-02 08:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"突然变脸！地产板块暴涨1000亿，发生了什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2048596197","media":"券商中国","summary":"此前还有人在说，创业板会像茅台一样上涨，但昨天就一度被砸得不知道东南西北，而茅台却创下历史新高，然而最令人意外的还是地产！7月1日，上证指数收涨1.38%，重返3025.98点；创业板指跌0.76%，","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c9862710a41b9b8a97791cf7d8efa\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\"></p><p><span>此前还有人在说，创业板会像茅台一样上涨，但昨天就一度被砸得不知道东南西北，而茅台却创下历史新高，然而最令人意外的还是地产！</span></p><p><span>7月1日，上证指数收涨1.38%，重返3025.98点；创业板指跌0.76%，盘中一度大跌超2%。两市成交额突破9000亿，创3个半月新高。盘面上，地产、金融、白酒、免税店、大基建持续活跃，A50期指大涨超过3%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed421c4f6ee743edbb0f78b37816ce3c\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"1019\"></p><p><span>盘面上，最出人意料的是地产股突然大涨，地产ETF全天上涨近6%。然而前期大涨的科技和医疗却出现了大幅调整，并带动创业板跳水。市值超过500亿的服务器龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000977\">浪潮信息</a>午后突然闪崩，盘中一度跌停。跟随浪潮信息杀跌的还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600845\">宝信软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300738\">奥飞数据</a>等大数据概念股。</span></p><p><span>消息面上，关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>断供的消息可能是这些股票杀跌的主要原因。而涉及国产替代的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600536\">中国软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000066\">中国长城</a>则借机拉起。随后，有券商表示，英特尔并非断供，而是填补合规漏洞，此项工作将在一两周内完成。至此，浪潮信息等股票才出现反弹，创业板指跌幅也开始收窄。盘后，浪潮信息也回应称，公司经营正常。</span></p><p><span>从大盘整体的格局来看，市场至少在1日出现了风格切换。那么，风格切换是否已经真的开始？</span></p><p>地产股突然暴涨1000亿，好消息不断传来</p><p><span>综观全天的盘面，其实A股早盘呈现的也是沪强深弱的格局，这意味着即使创业板不跳水，可能也会要承受风格发生变化带来的调整。接近午盘时，外围A50期指更是突然大涨，A股收盘时，该指数涨幅已经超过3%，而A股50ETF涨幅也达2.4%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54cc7fe828d5432ca6986052d23d5b11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"294\"></p><p><span>从结构来看，地产充当了50指数上涨的急先锋。地产指数一度上涨超6%，收盘涨幅亦接近6%，整体市值飙涨超1000亿。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c2a0afa3c44a9288899d38f9dd1f8f\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"401\"></p><p><b><span>分析人士认为，地产之所以上涨可能与两个因素有关：一是央行降低再贴现利率；二是房地产行情不错，1日公布的百城房价指数再度看涨，2020年6月，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为15461元/平方米，环比上涨0.53%，涨幅较上月扩大0.22个百分点。与此同时一线城市的房地产交易也比较活跃。</span></b></p><p><span>值得关注的是，盘后仍有利好不断传出。据中新经纬报道，从怀来县住房和城乡规划建设局得到证实，该县的住房限购政策已经废止，购房不再受套数限制。这将是环京区域第一个取消限购政策的地方。</span></p><p><b><span>不过，随后新京报报道称，7月1日下午，张家口市怀来县住房和城乡规划建设办公室工作人员就此事回应称，所谓解除限购的消息是假的。</span></b></p><p><span>另据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>披露，该公司6月合约销售金额约760.5亿元，同比增长约51.3%。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>在港交所公告，公司于2020年6月单月共实现归属本公司股东权益的合同销售金额约人民币609.6亿元，较2019年6月同比增加0.93%，归属本公司股东权益的合同销售建筑面积约729万平方米，较2019年6月同比增加9.72%。知名房企6月份的单月数据表现还不错。</span></p><p>500亿服务器龙头闪崩，科技股面临三重压力</p><p><span>然而在地产股疯涨之际，7月1日午后，浪潮信息突然崩盘，股价一度触及跌停板。在此之前，该股一直处于上升通道当中，从去年八月份开始，股价涨幅超过150%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8968860c7724b66aac675302724ae0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><span>那么，究竟发生了什么呢？据云头条等媒体报道，英特尔产品出口至浪潮在6月29日子夜11：59暂停，导致公司股价大跌。随后，有券商研究员表示，英特尔并没有也不可能对其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息断供。近期，1999年就存在的美国国防部清单对外披露，英特尔为了避免任何潜在法律风险，能够长期为其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息供货，对供应链一些可能合规漏洞进行修缮，因而引发了“断供”恐慌，预计合规补漏工作一两周内完成，届时英特尔面向浪潮的供应链将更加稳定可靠。</span></p><p><span>此前浪潮集团之所以进入该清单的原因在于集团内的山东超越资产，而这一资产在去年已经剥离出整个浪潮集团体系，转入地方国资委旗下，浪潮集团在清单里已经没有任何存在理由。同时需要强调的是，浪潮信息是美国芯片巨头Intel在全球的前三大客户之一，也是亚太区最重要的客户。券商认为，无论从短期公司业绩还是中长期服务器行业景气向上的角度，公司均处于黄金机遇期。盘后，公司回应称，经营一切正常。</span></p><p><span>跟随浪潮信息一起杀跌的还有宝信软件、奥飞数据等股票，而中国长城、中国软件等国产替代概念股则借机拉起。在浪潮信息的带动之下，科技股迎来普遍调整，创业板也因此跳水，并一度杀跌超过2%。但随着一些券商出具澄清报告，创业板指开始止跌回升。</span></p><p><span>不过，值得关注的是，虽然没有外围利空因素影响，但牛了半年的医药股却迎来大幅调整，生物医药ETF杀跌超2%。分析人士认为，这类板块前期涨幅过大，一些个股估值已经偏高，今年上半年医药类基金收益率雄居榜首，下半年继续走大牛的概率可能也就下降了许多。而随着新冠疫苗的出现，医药医疗板块出现调整的可能性也会加大。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db827b06ee4a1da4b0307e191ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><span>从目前的情况看，科技股后续可能主要面临三重压力：</span></p><p><span>一是估值偏高，以科创板为例，多数人气公司扣非后的市盈率（TTM）都在数百倍以上水平，科创板不剔除负值的情况下，PE已近105倍，创业板则近180；若两者剔除负值，则分别依然达86倍和52倍，显然已是不低；</span></p><p><span>二是减持压力，其实最近科技股减持的案例在逐渐增多，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603160\">汇顶科技</a>一路被减持，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300782\">卓胜微</a>则遭遇巨大抛压，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>亦是如此。紧接着，科创板第一批上市企业将迎来解禁大潮，这些股票的筹码压力可能会增大；</span></p><p><span>三是黑天鹅频发，外部环境过于不稳定，科技股遭遇制裁等偶发事件的概率偏高，如浪潮信息等。而从整个TMT行业来看，游戏行业也容易受到政策扰动。比如为了遵守中国的相关规定，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司冻结了中国App Store应用商店中上万款手机游戏的更新。此举可能给苹果造成最多8.79亿美元的销售损失（约合人民币62亿元）。</span></p><p>风格转换来了？</p><p><span>7月1日，A股盘面波动剧烈。从最终收盘的情况来看，大盘蓝筹股成了市场的稳定器。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>为首的白酒尤其给力，白酒ETF同样上涨近6%，跟地产ETF涨幅差不多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba4bad8d784f70a93bd0d44234176f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"></p><p><span>而除了白酒和地产，就是金融了。金融股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">中国人寿</a>对指数贡献最大。分析人士认为，下半年，保险股的想象空间可能比地产股还要大。原因是保费已经恢复增长，而10年期国债收益率也在走高，再加上经济复苏强于预期，有利于保险配置品种的估值扩张。在1日盘后，银保监会办公厅又印发了《保险资金参与金融衍生产品交易办法》、《保险资金参与国债期货交易规定》和《保险资金参与股指期货交易规定》。</span></p><p><span>那么，风格转换是否真的来了呢？也可以从结构分析中找到一些线索。目前蓝筹股中，银行和地产的持续性是需要观察的。因为“房住不炒”这个原则并未改变，因此也就不存在房地产全面放松的情况，因此房地产可能存在周线级别的反弹，但更长期限则存变数；而银行向实体让利也是今年谈得更多的一件事，市场或多或少会对此心存疑虑。从这个角度来看，能够在较长时间里支撑50指数的可能只有保险和茅台这种尚未完全高估的白酒股。</span></p><p><b><span>当然，若疫苗及时推出，疫情彻底好转，经济复苏就有很大概念在三季度达到高峰，届时机场、民航、铁路、高速、餐饮、旅游、影视文化等也可能会崛起，从而对市场形成支撑，但这些板块的权重并不是特别大。至于科技和医药医疗这两大热门板块，分析人士认为，前者调整之后继续跑长牛的现实条件依然存在，而后者则可能走到了精选标的的阶段。</span></b></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">西南证券</a>认为，在下半年科技牛主基调的基础上，存在阶段性的风格切换可能。一方面，科技板块会阶段性地从高估值、高预期的板块切换到业绩兑现的板块，另一方面，低估值的价值板块也会阶段性地受到资金青睐。由于六月份各个指数都出现了可观的上涨，七月份进一步加速上涨的概率不高。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n突然变脸！地产板块暴涨1000亿，发生了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-02 08:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c9862710a41b9b8a97791cf7d8efa\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\"></p><p><span>此前还有人在说，创业板会像茅台一样上涨，但昨天就一度被砸得不知道东南西北，而茅台却创下历史新高，然而最令人意外的还是地产！</span></p><p><span>7月1日，上证指数收涨1.38%，重返3025.98点；创业板指跌0.76%，盘中一度大跌超2%。两市成交额突破9000亿，创3个半月新高。盘面上，地产、金融、白酒、免税店、大基建持续活跃，A50期指大涨超过3%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed421c4f6ee743edbb0f78b37816ce3c\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"1019\"></p><p><span>盘面上，最出人意料的是地产股突然大涨，地产ETF全天上涨近6%。然而前期大涨的科技和医疗却出现了大幅调整，并带动创业板跳水。市值超过500亿的服务器龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000977\">浪潮信息</a>午后突然闪崩，盘中一度跌停。跟随浪潮信息杀跌的还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600845\">宝信软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300738\">奥飞数据</a>等大数据概念股。</span></p><p><span>消息面上，关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>断供的消息可能是这些股票杀跌的主要原因。而涉及国产替代的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600536\">中国软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000066\">中国长城</a>则借机拉起。随后，有券商表示，英特尔并非断供，而是填补合规漏洞，此项工作将在一两周内完成。至此，浪潮信息等股票才出现反弹，创业板指跌幅也开始收窄。盘后，浪潮信息也回应称，公司经营正常。</span></p><p><span>从大盘整体的格局来看，市场至少在1日出现了风格切换。那么，风格切换是否已经真的开始？</span></p><p>地产股突然暴涨1000亿，好消息不断传来</p><p><span>综观全天的盘面，其实A股早盘呈现的也是沪强深弱的格局，这意味着即使创业板不跳水，可能也会要承受风格发生变化带来的调整。接近午盘时，外围A50期指更是突然大涨，A股收盘时，该指数涨幅已经超过3%，而A股50ETF涨幅也达2.4%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54cc7fe828d5432ca6986052d23d5b11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"294\"></p><p><span>从结构来看，地产充当了50指数上涨的急先锋。地产指数一度上涨超6%，收盘涨幅亦接近6%，整体市值飙涨超1000亿。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c2a0afa3c44a9288899d38f9dd1f8f\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"401\"></p><p><b><span>分析人士认为，地产之所以上涨可能与两个因素有关：一是央行降低再贴现利率；二是房地产行情不错，1日公布的百城房价指数再度看涨，2020年6月，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为15461元/平方米，环比上涨0.53%，涨幅较上月扩大0.22个百分点。与此同时一线城市的房地产交易也比较活跃。</span></b></p><p><span>值得关注的是，盘后仍有利好不断传出。据中新经纬报道，从怀来县住房和城乡规划建设局得到证实，该县的住房限购政策已经废止，购房不再受套数限制。这将是环京区域第一个取消限购政策的地方。</span></p><p><b><span>不过，随后新京报报道称，7月1日下午，张家口市怀来县住房和城乡规划建设办公室工作人员就此事回应称，所谓解除限购的消息是假的。</span></b></p><p><span>另据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>披露，该公司6月合约销售金额约760.5亿元，同比增长约51.3%。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>在港交所公告，公司于2020年6月单月共实现归属本公司股东权益的合同销售金额约人民币609.6亿元，较2019年6月同比增加0.93%，归属本公司股东权益的合同销售建筑面积约729万平方米，较2019年6月同比增加9.72%。知名房企6月份的单月数据表现还不错。</span></p><p>500亿服务器龙头闪崩，科技股面临三重压力</p><p><span>然而在地产股疯涨之际，7月1日午后，浪潮信息突然崩盘，股价一度触及跌停板。在此之前，该股一直处于上升通道当中，从去年八月份开始，股价涨幅超过150%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8968860c7724b66aac675302724ae0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><span>那么，究竟发生了什么呢？据云头条等媒体报道，英特尔产品出口至浪潮在6月29日子夜11：59暂停，导致公司股价大跌。随后，有券商研究员表示，英特尔并没有也不可能对其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息断供。近期，1999年就存在的美国国防部清单对外披露，英特尔为了避免任何潜在法律风险，能够长期为其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息供货，对供应链一些可能合规漏洞进行修缮，因而引发了“断供”恐慌，预计合规补漏工作一两周内完成，届时英特尔面向浪潮的供应链将更加稳定可靠。</span></p><p><span>此前浪潮集团之所以进入该清单的原因在于集团内的山东超越资产，而这一资产在去年已经剥离出整个浪潮集团体系，转入地方国资委旗下，浪潮集团在清单里已经没有任何存在理由。同时需要强调的是，浪潮信息是美国芯片巨头Intel在全球的前三大客户之一，也是亚太区最重要的客户。券商认为，无论从短期公司业绩还是中长期服务器行业景气向上的角度，公司均处于黄金机遇期。盘后，公司回应称，经营一切正常。</span></p><p><span>跟随浪潮信息一起杀跌的还有宝信软件、奥飞数据等股票，而中国长城、中国软件等国产替代概念股则借机拉起。在浪潮信息的带动之下，科技股迎来普遍调整，创业板也因此跳水，并一度杀跌超过2%。但随着一些券商出具澄清报告，创业板指开始止跌回升。</span></p><p><span>不过，值得关注的是，虽然没有外围利空因素影响，但牛了半年的医药股却迎来大幅调整，生物医药ETF杀跌超2%。分析人士认为，这类板块前期涨幅过大，一些个股估值已经偏高，今年上半年医药类基金收益率雄居榜首，下半年继续走大牛的概率可能也就下降了许多。而随着新冠疫苗的出现，医药医疗板块出现调整的可能性也会加大。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db827b06ee4a1da4b0307e191ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><span>从目前的情况看，科技股后续可能主要面临三重压力：</span></p><p><span>一是估值偏高，以科创板为例，多数人气公司扣非后的市盈率（TTM）都在数百倍以上水平，科创板不剔除负值的情况下，PE已近105倍，创业板则近180；若两者剔除负值，则分别依然达86倍和52倍，显然已是不低；</span></p><p><span>二是减持压力，其实最近科技股减持的案例在逐渐增多，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603160\">汇顶科技</a>一路被减持，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300782\">卓胜微</a>则遭遇巨大抛压，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>亦是如此。紧接着，科创板第一批上市企业将迎来解禁大潮，这些股票的筹码压力可能会增大；</span></p><p><span>三是黑天鹅频发，外部环境过于不稳定，科技股遭遇制裁等偶发事件的概率偏高，如浪潮信息等。而从整个TMT行业来看，游戏行业也容易受到政策扰动。比如为了遵守中国的相关规定，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司冻结了中国App Store应用商店中上万款手机游戏的更新。此举可能给苹果造成最多8.79亿美元的销售损失（约合人民币62亿元）。</span></p><p>风格转换来了？</p><p><span>7月1日，A股盘面波动剧烈。从最终收盘的情况来看，大盘蓝筹股成了市场的稳定器。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>为首的白酒尤其给力，白酒ETF同样上涨近6%，跟地产ETF涨幅差不多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ba4bad8d784f70a93bd0d44234176f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"></p><p><span>而除了白酒和地产，就是金融了。金融股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">中国人寿</a>对指数贡献最大。分析人士认为，下半年，保险股的想象空间可能比地产股还要大。原因是保费已经恢复增长，而10年期国债收益率也在走高，再加上经济复苏强于预期，有利于保险配置品种的估值扩张。在1日盘后，银保监会办公厅又印发了《保险资金参与金融衍生产品交易办法》、《保险资金参与国债期货交易规定》和《保险资金参与股指期货交易规定》。</span></p><p><span>那么，风格转换是否真的来了呢？也可以从结构分析中找到一些线索。目前蓝筹股中，银行和地产的持续性是需要观察的。因为“房住不炒”这个原则并未改变，因此也就不存在房地产全面放松的情况，因此房地产可能存在周线级别的反弹，但更长期限则存变数；而银行向实体让利也是今年谈得更多的一件事，市场或多或少会对此心存疑虑。从这个角度来看，能够在较长时间里支撑50指数的可能只有保险和茅台这种尚未完全高估的白酒股。</span></p><p><b><span>当然，若疫苗及时推出，疫情彻底好转，经济复苏就有很大概念在三季度达到高峰，届时机场、民航、铁路、高速、餐饮、旅游、影视文化等也可能会崛起，从而对市场形成支撑，但这些板块的权重并不是特别大。至于科技和医药医疗这两大热门板块，分析人士认为，前者调整之后继续跑长牛的现实条件依然存在，而后者则可能走到了精选标的的阶段。</span></b></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">西南证券</a>认为，在下半年科技牛主基调的基础上，存在阶段性的风格切换可能。一方面，科技板块会阶段性地从高估值、高预期的板块切换到业绩兑现的板块，另一方面，低估值的价值板块也会阶段性地受到资金青睐。由于六月份各个指数都出现了可观的上涨，七月份进一步加速上涨的概率不高。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec51452295ac0124dcdc8a4db5658674","relate_stocks":{"159915":"创业板","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2048596197","content_text":"此前还有人在说，创业板会像茅台一样上涨，但昨天就一度被砸得不知道东南西北，而茅台却创下历史新高，然而最令人意外的还是地产！7月1日，上证指数收涨1.38%，重返3025.98点；创业板指跌0.76%，盘中一度大跌超2%。两市成交额突破9000亿，创3个半月新高。盘面上，地产、金融、白酒、免税店、大基建持续活跃，A50期指大涨超过3%。盘面上，最出人意料的是地产股突然大涨，地产ETF全天上涨近6%。然而前期大涨的科技和医疗却出现了大幅调整，并带动创业板跳水。市值超过500亿的服务器龙头浪潮信息午后突然闪崩，盘中一度跌停。跟随浪潮信息杀跌的还有宝信软件、奥飞数据等大数据概念股。消息面上，关于英特尔断供的消息可能是这些股票杀跌的主要原因。而涉及国产替代的中国软件、中国长城则借机拉起。随后，有券商表示，英特尔并非断供，而是填补合规漏洞，此项工作将在一两周内完成。至此，浪潮信息等股票才出现反弹，创业板指跌幅也开始收窄。盘后，浪潮信息也回应称，公司经营正常。从大盘整体的格局来看，市场至少在1日出现了风格切换。那么，风格切换是否已经真的开始？地产股突然暴涨1000亿，好消息不断传来综观全天的盘面，其实A股早盘呈现的也是沪强深弱的格局，这意味着即使创业板不跳水，可能也会要承受风格发生变化带来的调整。接近午盘时，外围A50期指更是突然大涨，A股收盘时，该指数涨幅已经超过3%，而A股50ETF涨幅也达2.4%。从结构来看，地产充当了50指数上涨的急先锋。地产指数一度上涨超6%，收盘涨幅亦接近6%，整体市值飙涨超1000亿。分析人士认为，地产之所以上涨可能与两个因素有关：一是央行降低再贴现利率；二是房地产行情不错，1日公布的百城房价指数再度看涨，2020年6月，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为15461元/平方米，环比上涨0.53%，涨幅较上月扩大0.22个百分点。与此同时一线城市的房地产交易也比较活跃。值得关注的是，盘后仍有利好不断传出。据中新经纬报道，从怀来县住房和城乡规划建设局得到证实，该县的住房限购政策已经废止，购房不再受套数限制。这将是环京区域第一个取消限购政策的地方。不过，随后新京报报道称，7月1日下午，张家口市怀来县住房和城乡规划建设办公室工作人员就此事回应称，所谓解除限购的消息是假的。另据中国恒大披露，该公司6月合约销售金额约760.5亿元，同比增长约51.3%。而碧桂园在港交所公告，公司于2020年6月单月共实现归属本公司股东权益的合同销售金额约人民币609.6亿元，较2019年6月同比增加0.93%，归属本公司股东权益的合同销售建筑面积约729万平方米，较2019年6月同比增加9.72%。知名房企6月份的单月数据表现还不错。500亿服务器龙头闪崩，科技股面临三重压力然而在地产股疯涨之际，7月1日午后，浪潮信息突然崩盘，股价一度触及跌停板。在此之前，该股一直处于上升通道当中，从去年八月份开始，股价涨幅超过150%。那么，究竟发生了什么呢？据云头条等媒体报道，英特尔产品出口至浪潮在6月29日子夜11：59暂停，导致公司股价大跌。随后，有券商研究员表示，英特尔并没有也不可能对其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息断供。近期，1999年就存在的美国国防部清单对外披露，英特尔为了避免任何潜在法律风险，能够长期为其全球最大客户之一浪潮信息供货，对供应链一些可能合规漏洞进行修缮，因而引发了“断供”恐慌，预计合规补漏工作一两周内完成，届时英特尔面向浪潮的供应链将更加稳定可靠。此前浪潮集团之所以进入该清单的原因在于集团内的山东超越资产，而这一资产在去年已经剥离出整个浪潮集团体系，转入地方国资委旗下，浪潮集团在清单里已经没有任何存在理由。同时需要强调的是，浪潮信息是美国芯片巨头Intel在全球的前三大客户之一，也是亚太区最重要的客户。券商认为，无论从短期公司业绩还是中长期服务器行业景气向上的角度，公司均处于黄金机遇期。盘后，公司回应称，经营一切正常。跟随浪潮信息一起杀跌的还有宝信软件、奥飞数据等股票，而中国长城、中国软件等国产替代概念股则借机拉起。在浪潮信息的带动之下，科技股迎来普遍调整，创业板也因此跳水，并一度杀跌超过2%。但随着一些券商出具澄清报告，创业板指开始止跌回升。不过，值得关注的是，虽然没有外围利空因素影响，但牛了半年的医药股却迎来大幅调整，生物医药ETF杀跌超2%。分析人士认为，这类板块前期涨幅过大，一些个股估值已经偏高，今年上半年医药类基金收益率雄居榜首，下半年继续走大牛的概率可能也就下降了许多。而随着新冠疫苗的出现，医药医疗板块出现调整的可能性也会加大。从目前的情况看，科技股后续可能主要面临三重压力：一是估值偏高，以科创板为例，多数人气公司扣非后的市盈率（TTM）都在数百倍以上水平，科创板不剔除负值的情况下，PE已近105倍，创业板则近180；若两者剔除负值，则分别依然达86倍和52倍，显然已是不低；二是减持压力，其实最近科技股减持的案例在逐渐增多，比如汇顶科技一路被减持，卓胜微则遭遇巨大抛压，兆易创新亦是如此。紧接着，科创板第一批上市企业将迎来解禁大潮，这些股票的筹码压力可能会增大；三是黑天鹅频发，外部环境过于不稳定，科技股遭遇制裁等偶发事件的概率偏高，如浪潮信息等。而从整个TMT行业来看，游戏行业也容易受到政策扰动。比如为了遵守中国的相关规定，苹果公司冻结了中国App Store应用商店中上万款手机游戏的更新。此举可能给苹果造成最多8.79亿美元的销售损失（约合人民币62亿元）。风格转换来了？7月1日，A股盘面波动剧烈。从最终收盘的情况来看，大盘蓝筹股成了市场的稳定器。以贵州茅台为首的白酒尤其给力，白酒ETF同样上涨近6%，跟地产ETF涨幅差不多。而除了白酒和地产，就是金融了。金融股中，中国平安、招商银行、中国人寿对指数贡献最大。分析人士认为，下半年，保险股的想象空间可能比地产股还要大。原因是保费已经恢复增长，而10年期国债收益率也在走高，再加上经济复苏强于预期，有利于保险配置品种的估值扩张。在1日盘后，银保监会办公厅又印发了《保险资金参与金融衍生产品交易办法》、《保险资金参与国债期货交易规定》和《保险资金参与股指期货交易规定》。那么，风格转换是否真的来了呢？也可以从结构分析中找到一些线索。目前蓝筹股中，银行和地产的持续性是需要观察的。因为“房住不炒”这个原则并未改变，因此也就不存在房地产全面放松的情况，因此房地产可能存在周线级别的反弹，但更长期限则存变数；而银行向实体让利也是今年谈得更多的一件事，市场或多或少会对此心存疑虑。从这个角度来看，能够在较长时间里支撑50指数的可能只有保险和茅台这种尚未完全高估的白酒股。当然，若疫苗及时推出，疫情彻底好转，经济复苏就有很大概念在三季度达到高峰，届时机场、民航、铁路、高速、餐饮、旅游、影视文化等也可能会崛起，从而对市场形成支撑，但这些板块的权重并不是特别大。至于科技和医药医疗这两大热门板块，分析人士认为，前者调整之后继续跑长牛的现实条件依然存在，而后者则可能走到了精选标的的阶段。西南证券认为，在下半年科技牛主基调的基础上，存在阶段性的风格切换可能。一方面，科技板块会阶段性地从高估值、高预期的板块切换到业绩兑现的板块，另一方面，低估值的价值板块也会阶段性地受到资金青睐。由于六月份各个指数都出现了可观的上涨，七月份进一步加速上涨的概率不高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980319841,"gmtCreate":1582206865883,"gmtModify":1704346073777,"author":{"id":"3436969944328977","authorId":"3436969944328977","name":"油和黄金","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/67682f6f65e25b801e6f021ecc52e9da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3436969944328977","authorIdStr":"3436969944328977"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$普拉格能源(PLUG)$ 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