candy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

candy

candy

一枚欢乐的小糖果儿

IP属地：北京

452关注

1759粉丝

14主题

0勋章

06-14

$TSLA 20250117 400.0 CALL$ 哭哭

01-12

这个挑战——这里是财富的摇篮，等待着最勇敢的玩家赢取最高价值888美元的奖励！ 🏰🌈

01-11

🚀 空投警报：保持关注！定期地图会降下特殊奖励，如股票、代金券等。行动要快——先到先得！ ☁️🎁 准备好摇骰子，让你在虎中豪杰挑战中留下印记吧！ 🎲🏆 证明你有资格成为终极大亨。

01-10

这个挑战——这里是财富的摇篮，等待着最勇敢的玩家赢取最高价值888美元的奖励！ 🏰🌈

01-08

大家都拿到多少金币啦？

01-04

这个挑战——这里是财富的摇篮，等待着最勇敢的玩家赢取最高价

01-03

这个挑战——这里是财富的摇篮，等待着最勇敢的玩家赢取最高价值888美元的奖励！ 🏰🌈

01-02

这个挑战——这里是财富的摇篮，等待着最勇敢的玩家赢取最高价值888美元的奖励！ 🏰🌈

2023-12-28

每次玩游戏都会忘记做任务！

2023-12-26

参与活动吧！赢奖励哦

2023-12-16

$高途(GOTU)$ 下周能冲到6块了。期待

2023-11-07

老虎万圣节活动开始啦

2023-11-06

还能玩儿游戏呢，大家加油

2023-11-03

接近尾声了，大家努力哦！

2023-11-02

我只是想获得游戏次数，这可以吧、

2023-11-01

大家都来参与一下😝没准儿就成了呢

2023-10-31

好玩儿，来呀！哈哈哈

2023-10-30

跟花花花花花花好要积极勇敢地

2023-08-14

哇哦，希望能实现[哇塞]

重磅！香港证券业发声：撤销股票印花税

2023-07-18

点颗痣，曾经属于我的都会拿回来的！！！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重磅！香港证券业发声：撤销股票印花税\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-14 06:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月14日，市场消息，中国香港行政长官李家超将于10月25日发表新一份《施政报告》，日前正接受公众咨询。香港证券及期货专业总会响应称，要求撤销股票印花税。工会表示，由2020年开始传闻加股票印花税至今，会方一直关注股票印花税。工会表示，自增加股票印花税后，严重打击本地证券市场交投量及从业员生存空间，证券业是香港四大支柱之一，影响到整体的发展。</p><p>此前，中国香港提高股票印花税率至0.13%，较之前印花税率（0.1%）提高三成。美国早在1966年便停止征收证券交易印花税，德国也在1991年停止征收，日本则在1999年4月1日取消了包括印花税在内的所有流通票据转让税和交易税，2000年6月30日，新加坡也取消了股票印花税。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示，2020财政年度，中国香港的印花税占香港整体税收大约一成，其中又有约一半来自股票交易印花税。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157828314","content_text":"8月14日，市场消息，中国香港行政长官李家超将于10月25日发表新一份《施政报告》，日前正接受公众咨询。香港证券及期货专业总会响应称，要求撤销股票印花税。工会表示，由2020年开始传闻加股票印花税至今，会方一直关注股票印花税。工会表示，自增加股票印花税后，严重打击本地证券市场交投量及从业员生存空间，证券业是香港四大支柱之一，影响到整体的发展。此前，中国香港提高股票印花税率至0.13%，较之前印花税率（0.1%）提高三成。美国早在1966年便停止征收证券交易印花税，德国也在1991年停止征收，日本则在1999年4月1日取消了包括印花税在内的所有流通票据转让税和交易税，2000年6月30日，新加坡也取消了股票印花税。数据显示，2020财政年度，中国香港的印花税占香港整体税收大约一成，其中又有约一半来自股票交易印花税。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199151993536536,"gmtCreate":1689644970703,"gmtModify":1689644972211,"author":{"id":"1777750695264","authorId":"1777750695264","name":"candy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8704f74e29ab9f418e72907459767655","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1777750695264","authorIdStr":"1777750695264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"点颗痣，曾经属于我的都会拿回来的！！！","listText":"点颗痣，曾经属于我的都会拿回来的！！！","text":"点颗痣，曾经属于我的都会拿回来的！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199151993536536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333523252,"gmtCreate":1609320044476,"gmtModify":1703738766506,"author":{"id":"1777750695264","authorId":"1777750695264","name":"candy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8704f74e29ab9f418e72907459767655","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1777750695264","authorIdStr":"1777750695264"},"themes":[],"title":"2020投资大复盘","htmlText":"时间过的真快，尤其是多灾多难的2020年。回顾2020年自己炒股的历程，用跌宕起伏来形容一点不为过。我开始炒股源于老虎证券的上市，2019年三月份入金后参与的第一个IPO就是老虎证券，幸运的我赚到了第一桶金。[美金]&nbsp;然后开始交易美股，前几个月的成绩真的是让我飘到了云端，买啥啥涨，胜率达到百分百。资产也随之翻了一倍。然鹅[流泪]&nbsp;，哐叽来了毛衣战，从未尝到亏钱的我眼看着账户持仓的股票开始翻绿，舍不得割肉选择了死扛。（但后来的经验告诉我一定要学会及时止损）到了2020年的1月份，挣扎着，斗争着，账户整体还是翻一倍。妈妈提醒我，过年了，把盈利都取出来吧…我自己要再等等（也不知道想等什么，可能是等个教训吧[捂脸]&nbsp;）2020年春节前夕，毛衣战还未真正结束，疫情就来了……这让原本就不富裕的账户消瘦的更快，不到三个月时间，我就将账户盈利的一倍亏完了，当时想，保住我的本金是我最后的底线……[喷血]&nbsp;随着美国疫情日益蔓延，美股也发生了百年不遇的熔断。（欲哭无泪）[难过]&nbsp;还未等我主动操作止损保住本金，在熔断的摧残下我的资产直接掉到了本金以下，触及到了我的底线不说还亏了本金20%。于是我开始疯狂的割肉，不管什么票都市价大甩卖。最后由于熔断，市价都没有卖完的荔枝留了146股在账户苟延残喘。[心碎]&nbsp;“女子汉大丈夫”大不了重头再来！这时候已经已经是是2020年的三月份了，急切想要回本的我开始玩起了美股期权…没错，我开始碰衍生品了（可把我厉害的，我先叉会儿腰[得意]&nbsp;）结果，脚丫子也能帮我想到，我的期权们都归零了…（全部都是因为盈利后，我不知道及时止盈）教训！教训！教训！后来开始参与港股IPO，发现还是打新靠谱，保利物业，九毛九，祖龙娱乐，思摩尔等票让我资产回血很多，陆续又参与了几只美股的IPO，虽然美股中签数量不多，但是只要","listText":"时间过的真快，尤其是多灾多难的2020年。回顾2020年自己炒股的历程，用跌宕起伏来形容一点不为过。我开始炒股源于老虎证券的上市，2019年三月份入金后参与的第一个IPO就是老虎证券，幸运的我赚到了第一桶金。[美金]&nbsp;然后开始交易美股，前几个月的成绩真的是让我飘到了云端，买啥啥涨，胜率达到百分百。资产也随之翻了一倍。然鹅[流泪]&nbsp;，哐叽来了毛衣战，从未尝到亏钱的我眼看着账户持仓的股票开始翻绿，舍不得割肉选择了死扛。（但后来的经验告诉我一定要学会及时止损）到了2020年的1月份，挣扎着，斗争着，账户整体还是翻一倍。妈妈提醒我，过年了，把盈利都取出来吧…我自己要再等等（也不知道想等什么，可能是等个教训吧[捂脸]&nbsp;）2020年春节前夕，毛衣战还未真正结束，疫情就来了……这让原本就不富裕的账户消瘦的更快，不到三个月时间，我就将账户盈利的一倍亏完了，当时想，保住我的本金是我最后的底线……[喷血]&nbsp;随着美国疫情日益蔓延，美股也发生了百年不遇的熔断。（欲哭无泪）[难过]&nbsp;还未等我主动操作止损保住本金，在熔断的摧残下我的资产直接掉到了本金以下，触及到了我的底线不说还亏了本金20%。于是我开始疯狂的割肉，不管什么票都市价大甩卖。最后由于熔断，市价都没有卖完的荔枝留了146股在账户苟延残喘。[心碎]&nbsp;“女子汉大丈夫”大不了重头再来！这时候已经已经是是2020年的三月份了，急切想要回本的我开始玩起了美股期权…没错，我开始碰衍生品了（可把我厉害的，我先叉会儿腰[得意]&nbsp;）结果，脚丫子也能帮我想到，我的期权们都归零了…（全部都是因为盈利后，我不知道及时止盈）教训！教训！教训！后来开始参与港股IPO，发现还是打新靠谱，保利物业，九毛九，祖龙娱乐，思摩尔等票让我资产回血很多，陆续又参与了几只美股的IPO，虽然美股中签数量不多，但是只要","text":"时间过的真快，尤其是多灾多难的2020年。回顾2020年自己炒股的历程，用跌宕起伏来形容一点不为过。我开始炒股源于老虎证券的上市，2019年三月份入金后参与的第一个IPO就是老虎证券，幸运的我赚到了第一桶金。[美金] 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Inc(SNAP)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$保利物业(06049)$$赤子城科技(09911)$$嘉楠科技(CAN)$$斗鱼(DOYU)$$美国钢铁(X)$$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$伊管(ITRI)$$拼多多(PDD)$这两天的资产创了一个新高，希望继续[看涨][看涨][看涨]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90aeb7e29b6f909805021b8a9ad3534a","width":"1242","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913883396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3439515680308007","authorId":"3439515680308007","name":"Jessicajob","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3439515680308007","authorIdStr":"3439515680308007"},"content":"可以抱大腿吗","text":"可以抱大腿吗","html":"可以抱大腿吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953234484,"gmtCreate":1590411478848,"gmtModify":1704192456393,"author":{"id":"1777750695264","authorId":"1777750695264","name":"candy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8704f74e29ab9f418e72907459767655","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1777750695264","authorIdStr":"1777750695264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185246818","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":915399425,"gmtCreate":1580707980767,"gmtModify":1704341954094,"author":{"id":"1777750695264","authorId":"1777750695264","name":"candy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8704f74e29ab9f418e72907459767655","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1777750695264","authorIdStr":"1777750695264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a>已挂单","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a>已挂单","text":"$吉利德科学(GILD)$已挂单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915399425","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478493963077794","authorId":"3478493963077794","name":"甄妮发","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3478493963077794","authorIdStr":"3478493963077794"},"content":"全仓还是半仓","text":"全仓还是半仓","html":"全仓还是半仓"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":936917854,"gmtCreate":1571924277778,"gmtModify":1704723248032,"author":{"id":"1777750695264","authorId":"1777750695264","name":"candy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8704f74e29ab9f418e72907459767655","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1777750695264","authorIdStr":"1777750695264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>冲鸭[真香]","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$斗鱼(DOYU)$</a>论个头儿也比虎牙大吧，好意思不涨么，看好你哦！[看涨][666][666]","listText":"<a 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target=\"_blank\">叮咚买菜晒单赢取储值卡活动传送门&gt;&gt;</a>","text":"叮咚买菜是国内增速最快的即时电商，是领先的一站式网上购物场所。通过标准化和数字化的尝试，叮咚买菜对中国传统农业供应链进行现代化改造，赋能上游农场和供应商，使生产更高效、更贴合实际需求。并针对消费者的需求和行业传统供应链模式的不足，重塑消费者的在线购物体验。 叮咚买菜美股上市之际， 本帖下评论你在叮咚买菜app上发现的宝藏美食，随机抽取走心评论10名，每人获得【叮咚买菜100元储值卡】一张！！！😍😍 活动时间：6月23日-6月28日 参与步骤：1. 注册叮咚买菜app，本帖下评论你在叮咚买菜app上发现的宝藏美食； 2. 随机抽取幸运奖x10； 3. 不可重复留言，每人最多可获奖一次； 4. 获奖名单于活动结束后5个工作日内公布，于15个工作日内完成发放； 叮咚买菜专属下载通道 大家快快在下面评论吧！！海量储值卡说不定就是你的啦~😜 叮咚买菜晒单赢取储值卡活动传送门>>","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af010ca6b9b8df92bd04b2b3c081d247","width":"1658","height":"1100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123806280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3452746438701429","authorId":"3452746438701429","name":"勇敢者的游戏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452746438701429","authorIdStr":"3452746438701429"},"content":"然后呢？买过一次水果，新鲜度好差，全是冻库长时间的东西，所以拒绝网上买农产品，","text":"然后呢？买过一次水果，新鲜度好差，全是冻库长时间的东西，所以拒绝网上买农产品，","html":"然后呢？买过一次水果，新鲜度好差，全是冻库长时间的东西，所以拒绝网上买农产品，"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}