股息控的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股息控

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IP属地：江苏

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2020-10-14

确实很郁闷

分化加剧，哪些地产股还会有春天？

2020-03-10

$道琼斯(.DJI)$还成熟的市场

2020-03-07

$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$真厉害，就2000美元，看你玩玩吧。跌了1200多美元

2020-03-05

$道琼斯(.DJI)$明天让我中华大A拯救你

2017-10-06

疯了

$大唐环境(01272)$疯了吧，你也能长啊，哥持有你一年，每天的成交量我都能拉涨停了

2016-12-21

好坑

$大唐环境(01272)$ 完全没有成交量

2016-12-06

$大唐环境(01272)$ 这股有内幕很快拉升～看到帖子的人有福了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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tg-height=\"780\"></p><p>而房地产行业，在中国经济和资本市场都扮演着至关重要的角色。因此行业政策会对房企的资金流向，扩张战略，行业上下游的企业都会产生巨大影响。</p><p>由于今年二季度之后土地市场和部分城市房地产市场出现过热的迹象，政策才要求房企控制杠杆。这样一来，虽然有利于控制地价，房价；同时也意味着地产商的扩张速度会放缓，盈利能力会下降。</p><p>同时呢，疫情导致了今年行业的销售节奏整体后移，未来弥补一二季度对销售带来的影响，四季度的推盘去化和销售力度还会继续加大；一方面是为了达成2020全年的销售目标，另一方面也可以回款现金流，配合政策监管降低杠杆率。</p><p>不仅如此，在拿地方面地产商也相当慎重，很少在一线和四线城市拿地。为什么呢？一线城市地价过高，土地溢价率也高，遇上限价投资风险高。而四线城市的整体去化率不高，会降低周转率延长回款周期。多数房企还是以二三线城市为主，继续做区域深耕。</p><p>而处于白银时代的房企，为了避免行业的激烈竞争，业务多元化必定是行业趋势。向行业龙头房企万科，非常注重多业态的拓展，已经在住宅，物业，物流，长租公寓等多领域完成布局。另一方面，房企旗下物业业务的商业模式有天然的优势，也必然会被当作一个长期的融资平台而分拆上市。</p><p><b>02、四季度是重点</b></p><p>既然房企会在四季度继续加大销售力度，可以重点关注销售数据这项指标。整体来看，1-9月份TOP100房企操盘销售规模76026.5亿元，同比增长9.2%；9月单月销售金额11905.6亿元，同比增长29.0%。</p><p>虽然9月份的销售增速较8月份有所放缓，但整体来看前三个季度的数据是超预期的。2019年前三季度百强房企的操盘销售额24166.9亿元，今年同期是31053.7亿元，同比增长28.5%；销售端今年完全没有受到疫情影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b0665c4a4c9b215b8b206949e6dde1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"962\"></p><p>而单月销售增速同比转正出现在4月份，为什么？原因是国内疫情得到控制之后，各地的工地开始陆续复工，行业整体性出现了大反弹，这个时候就应该关注反弹力度最快的公司进行跟踪。</p><p>同时累计增速转正出现在7月份，而1-9月的行业销售额再次好于去年同期，也恰恰说明房地产行业已经摆脱了疫情的影响，重新开始新的增长；这是当下应该重视行业板块和地产股的逻辑。</p><p>而业绩方面，疫情的确影响了竣工进度，行业上半年整体性业绩增速出现了下滑，不及预期，下半年竣工周期加快也会带来房企业绩的整体性反转。政策的收紧对小规模的房企影响比较大，所以后续行情会继续分红，房地产行业集中度提升是长期趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070edb1535fe154d58010ed82fb02d10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p><b>03、哪些公司值得重点关注</b></p><p>9月份销售行情不差，TOP100房企整体性销售额同比增长29.0%。四季度加上中秋节和国庆节的销售旺季，销售数据还会高歌猛进。因此，可以选择销售数据持续修复，并且增速超过行业平均水平的房企。</p><p>其中，从1-9月份累计销售额来看，比较突出的有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>同比增长17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">世茂集团</a>16%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001979\">招商蛇口</a>17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">金地集团</a>19%，旭辉集团13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000961\">中南建设</a>11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000656\">金科股份</a>21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03380\">龙光集团</a>39%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00817\">中国金茂</a>30.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03900\">绿城中国</a>43.3%。</p><p>从9月单月销售额来看，同比增速较快的有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>21%，万科11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">保利地产</a>36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600606\">绿地控股</a>140%，招商蛇口27%，旭辉集团30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KIM\">金科</a>股份29%，龙光集团83%，绿城中国69%。而且部分公司的销售增速从一季度到三季度一直排名靠前。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc7c56c5f2a3df2827176a76f7495ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\"></p><p>一些房企受疫情影响时，增速就快于行业平均水平和大多数公司；在国内疫情得到控制时，销售的反弹力度强劲，这类公司是值得全年关注的，也会存在超预期的地方。</p><p>房企融资\"三条红线\"的宣布，虽然没有出台具体的细则，但也是监管层给房地产行业打预防针，限制房企的负债规模。显然，地产商光靠疯狂加杠杆就能保持规模增速的时代已经过去了。</p><p>未来肯定会依靠企业内部精细化管理，和多元化的理性发展。综合来看，行情会继续出现分化，一些公司会涨一些公司不涨反跌，只有部分地产股会存在春天。A股有：保利，金地，金科；港股有：世茂，龙光，旭辉，绿城。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分化加剧，哪些地产股还会有春天？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-14 09:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>今年投资银行，保险，地产的投资者可能会比较郁闷，因为这些板块根本没怎么上涨，完全错过了消费，医药，科技股的大行情。从几个数据看你就知道\"三傻\"有多惨了。</p><p>年初至今，房地产指数涨幅-3.3%；银行指数涨幅-9.3%；保险指数涨幅-4.0%；完全跑输了同期的创业板指数，上证指数。完全错过行情的地产股今年还有机会吗？</p><p><b>01、政策影响有多大</b></p><p>8月20日，住建部和央行召开了重点房企座谈会，宣布了房企融资\"三条红线\"。三大红线要求房企：1、剔除预收款之后的资产负债率大于70%；2、净负债率大于100%；3、现金短债比小于1倍。从侧面也印证了房企融资收紧的政策预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf0afd3e8d856d279d5101c201e1927\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"780\"></p><p>而房地产行业，在中国经济和资本市场都扮演着至关重要的角色。因此行业政策会对房企的资金流向，扩张战略，行业上下游的企业都会产生巨大影响。</p><p>由于今年二季度之后土地市场和部分城市房地产市场出现过热的迹象，政策才要求房企控制杠杆。这样一来，虽然有利于控制地价，房价；同时也意味着地产商的扩张速度会放缓，盈利能力会下降。</p><p>同时呢，疫情导致了今年行业的销售节奏整体后移，未来弥补一二季度对销售带来的影响，四季度的推盘去化和销售力度还会继续加大；一方面是为了达成2020全年的销售目标，另一方面也可以回款现金流，配合政策监管降低杠杆率。</p><p>不仅如此，在拿地方面地产商也相当慎重，很少在一线和四线城市拿地。为什么呢？一线城市地价过高，土地溢价率也高，遇上限价投资风险高。而四线城市的整体去化率不高，会降低周转率延长回款周期。多数房企还是以二三线城市为主，继续做区域深耕。</p><p>而处于白银时代的房企，为了避免行业的激烈竞争，业务多元化必定是行业趋势。向行业龙头房企万科，非常注重多业态的拓展，已经在住宅，物业，物流，长租公寓等多领域完成布局。另一方面，房企旗下物业业务的商业模式有天然的优势，也必然会被当作一个长期的融资平台而分拆上市。</p><p><b>02、四季度是重点</b></p><p>既然房企会在四季度继续加大销售力度，可以重点关注销售数据这项指标。整体来看，1-9月份TOP100房企操盘销售规模76026.5亿元，同比增长9.2%；9月单月销售金额11905.6亿元，同比增长29.0%。</p><p>虽然9月份的销售增速较8月份有所放缓，但整体来看前三个季度的数据是超预期的。2019年前三季度百强房企的操盘销售额24166.9亿元，今年同期是31053.7亿元，同比增长28.5%；销售端今年完全没有受到疫情影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b0665c4a4c9b215b8b206949e6dde1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"962\"></p><p>而单月销售增速同比转正出现在4月份，为什么？原因是国内疫情得到控制之后，各地的工地开始陆续复工，行业整体性出现了大反弹，这个时候就应该关注反弹力度最快的公司进行跟踪。</p><p>同时累计增速转正出现在7月份，而1-9月的行业销售额再次好于去年同期，也恰恰说明房地产行业已经摆脱了疫情的影响，重新开始新的增长；这是当下应该重视行业板块和地产股的逻辑。</p><p>而业绩方面，疫情的确影响了竣工进度，行业上半年整体性业绩增速出现了下滑，不及预期，下半年竣工周期加快也会带来房企业绩的整体性反转。政策的收紧对小规模的房企影响比较大，所以后续行情会继续分红，房地产行业集中度提升是长期趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070edb1535fe154d58010ed82fb02d10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p><b>03、哪些公司值得重点关注</b></p><p>9月份销售行情不差，TOP100房企整体性销售额同比增长29.0%。四季度加上中秋节和国庆节的销售旺季，销售数据还会高歌猛进。因此，可以选择销售数据持续修复，并且增速超过行业平均水平的房企。</p><p>其中，从1-9月份累计销售额来看，比较突出的有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>同比增长17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">世茂集团</a>16%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001979\">招商蛇口</a>17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">金地集团</a>19%，旭辉集团13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000961\">中南建设</a>11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000656\">金科股份</a>21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03380\">龙光集团</a>39%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00817\">中国金茂</a>30.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03900\">绿城中国</a>43.3%。</p><p>从9月单月销售额来看，同比增速较快的有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>21%，万科11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">保利地产</a>36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600606\">绿地控股</a>140%，招商蛇口27%，旭辉集团30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KIM\">金科</a>股份29%，龙光集团83%，绿城中国69%。而且部分公司的销售增速从一季度到三季度一直排名靠前。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc7c56c5f2a3df2827176a76f7495ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\"></p><p>一些房企受疫情影响时，增速就快于行业平均水平和大多数公司；在国内疫情得到控制时，销售的反弹力度强劲，这类公司是值得全年关注的，也会存在超预期的地方。</p><p>房企融资\"三条红线\"的宣布，虽然没有出台具体的细则，但也是监管层给房地产行业打预防针，限制房企的负债规模。显然，地产商光靠疯狂加杠杆就能保持规模增速的时代已经过去了。</p><p>未来肯定会依靠企业内部精细化管理，和多元化的理性发展。综合来看，行情会继续出现分化，一些公司会涨一些公司不涨反跌，只有部分地产股会存在春天。A股有：保利，金地，金科；港股有：世茂，龙光，旭辉，绿城。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152099462","content_text":"今年投资银行，保险，地产的投资者可能会比较郁闷，因为这些板块根本没怎么上涨，完全错过了消费，医药，科技股的大行情。从几个数据看你就知道\"三傻\"有多惨了。年初至今，房地产指数涨幅-3.3%；银行指数涨幅-9.3%；保险指数涨幅-4.0%；完全跑输了同期的创业板指数，上证指数。完全错过行情的地产股今年还有机会吗？01、政策影响有多大8月20日，住建部和央行召开了重点房企座谈会，宣布了房企融资\"三条红线\"。三大红线要求房企：1、剔除预收款之后的资产负债率大于70%；2、净负债率大于100%；3、现金短债比小于1倍。从侧面也印证了房企融资收紧的政策预期。而房地产行业，在中国经济和资本市场都扮演着至关重要的角色。因此行业政策会对房企的资金流向，扩张战略，行业上下游的企业都会产生巨大影响。由于今年二季度之后土地市场和部分城市房地产市场出现过热的迹象，政策才要求房企控制杠杆。这样一来，虽然有利于控制地价，房价；同时也意味着地产商的扩张速度会放缓，盈利能力会下降。同时呢，疫情导致了今年行业的销售节奏整体后移，未来弥补一二季度对销售带来的影响，四季度的推盘去化和销售力度还会继续加大；一方面是为了达成2020全年的销售目标，另一方面也可以回款现金流，配合政策监管降低杠杆率。不仅如此，在拿地方面地产商也相当慎重，很少在一线和四线城市拿地。为什么呢？一线城市地价过高，土地溢价率也高，遇上限价投资风险高。而四线城市的整体去化率不高，会降低周转率延长回款周期。多数房企还是以二三线城市为主，继续做区域深耕。而处于白银时代的房企，为了避免行业的激烈竞争，业务多元化必定是行业趋势。向行业龙头房企万科，非常注重多业态的拓展，已经在住宅，物业，物流，长租公寓等多领域完成布局。另一方面，房企旗下物业业务的商业模式有天然的优势，也必然会被当作一个长期的融资平台而分拆上市。02、四季度是重点既然房企会在四季度继续加大销售力度，可以重点关注销售数据这项指标。整体来看，1-9月份TOP100房企操盘销售规模76026.5亿元，同比增长9.2%；9月单月销售金额11905.6亿元，同比增长29.0%。虽然9月份的销售增速较8月份有所放缓，但整体来看前三个季度的数据是超预期的。2019年前三季度百强房企的操盘销售额24166.9亿元，今年同期是31053.7亿元，同比增长28.5%；销售端今年完全没有受到疫情影响。而单月销售增速同比转正出现在4月份，为什么？原因是国内疫情得到控制之后，各地的工地开始陆续复工，行业整体性出现了大反弹，这个时候就应该关注反弹力度最快的公司进行跟踪。同时累计增速转正出现在7月份，而1-9月的行业销售额再次好于去年同期，也恰恰说明房地产行业已经摆脱了疫情的影响，重新开始新的增长；这是当下应该重视行业板块和地产股的逻辑。而业绩方面，疫情的确影响了竣工进度，行业上半年整体性业绩增速出现了下滑，不及预期，下半年竣工周期加快也会带来房企业绩的整体性反转。政策的收紧对小规模的房企影响比较大，所以后续行情会继续分红，房地产行业集中度提升是长期趋势。03、哪些公司值得重点关注9月份销售行情不差，TOP100房企整体性销售额同比增长29.0%。四季度加上中秋节和国庆节的销售旺季，销售数据还会高歌猛进。因此，可以选择销售数据持续修复，并且增速超过行业平均水平的房企。其中，从1-9月份累计销售额来看，比较突出的有中国恒大同比增长17%，世茂集团16%，招商蛇口17%，金地集团19%，旭辉集团13%，中南建设11%，金科股份21%，龙光集团39%，中国金茂30.7%，绿城中国43.3%。从9月单月销售额来看，同比增速较快的有碧桂园21%，万科11%，保利地产36%，绿地控股140%，招商蛇口27%，旭辉集团30%，金科股份29%，龙光集团83%，绿城中国69%。而且部分公司的销售增速从一季度到三季度一直排名靠前。一些房企受疫情影响时，增速就快于行业平均水平和大多数公司；在国内疫情得到控制时，销售的反弹力度强劲，这类公司是值得全年关注的，也会存在超预期的地方。房企融资\"三条红线\"的宣布，虽然没有出台具体的细则，但也是监管层给房地产行业打预防针，限制房企的负债规模。显然，地产商光靠疯狂加杠杆就能保持规模增速的时代已经过去了。未来肯定会依靠企业内部精细化管理，和多元化的理性发展。综合来看，行情会继续出现分化，一些公司会涨一些公司不涨反跌，只有部分地产股会存在春天。A股有：保利，金地，金科；港股有：世茂，龙光，旭辉，绿城。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988010262,"gmtCreate":1583848111756,"gmtModify":1704351232871,"author":{"id":"176857535469477","authorId":"176857535469477","name":"股息控","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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