博实乐投资逻辑。。

2017-09-26

$博实乐教育(BEDU)$ 实际市盈率在50到60左右，市值170亿人民币，对标枫叶教育，似乎是贵了很多，但是如果计算学校产出，大量毕业生进入美国前50名大学，以及碧桂园地产对于新建学校的作用，博实乐估值是合理的。
从财务角度讲，企业大量资本性支出，会极大拉高市盈率，因为财务支出要做每年费用化。这点在好未来身上体现非常明显。
在决定买入博实乐时，应该至少考虑两点
该公司学校数量能否未来翻倍甚至更多?
其次大量学校建后，管理能否跟上，继续保持现在升学率?
将来不排除碧桂园将来将公司战略定义在教育上，但现在看不到，现在只是公司的一个重点。
$好未来(TAL)$

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

水云间
2017-09-27
水云间
不能拿股价走势去分析估值，这个逻辑不正确，枫叶教育的管理层深耕教育20年，比博实乐的职业经理人优秀，枫叶教育财务非常优秀，估值合理
- 学未来:
  枫叶如何优秀?枫叶发展策略?它确实便宜，但总部在大连让人心生凉意
学未来
2017-09-26
学未来
学校类扩张资本支出太大，但续班率稳定，培训机构类轻资产，但续班率是最大问题，在线教育续班率和营销成本问题最大，几乎上一个死一个。从趋势上看博实乐在留学教育上升学率有很大优势，未来市值500亿几乎是很正常事件。
- Leader回复学未来:
  👍👍👍
- 学未来回复Leader:
  老虎算的市盈是用24除单季盈利0。13，其它季度老虎也不知
- 娃儿别哭回复学未来:
  请教一下，什么叫开放市值？估值过高会被打下来？不是应该因为增长，和增发股票，而使市值抗大吗
- Leader回复学未来:
  嗯嗯，实际市盈率是怎么得知的？
- 学未来回复Leader:
  美股是完全开放市值，如果估值过高，马上很快被打下来，我只不过尽量理解市场对博实乐的估值，500亿人民币市值是假设政策充许情况下。
Salvator
2017-09-26
Salvator
查了一下，这个学校一年进前50的毕业生数量似乎比不过我们高中一届可以达到的数量。
- 学未来回复Salvator:
  重点高中学生是人中龙，几万人中挑那几百人几千人，博实乐生源肯定比不上重点高中，我理解(个人猜测)应该是教学体系教材会好很多，对接美国教育系统好很多
- Salvator回复学未来:
  以高考为导向的学校确实没有扩张能力，但几个大高中每人都开个国际部，市场就差不多了😂，有钱人本来就不是多数
- Salvator回复学未来:
  就我了解有很多重点高中是设立国际部的，可以说已经是百家争鸣。不知道博实乐和他们比有没有优势
- 学未来回复Salvator:
  美国前50本科难度没那么大，确实如此，但全国扩张学校中枫叶确实在这点表现差很多。资本正是看中博实乐这种扩张优势。
- 学未来回复Salvator:
  放眼国内上市公司中，只有枫叶和博实乐两个学校具备全国扩张能力，而且都以双语教学为主，以出国留学为目的。其它如成实验，等一些不具备这样能力，以高考为导向学校不具备扩张能力，因为要纳入当他中考系统，这也衡水中学没向外新建学校原因
Kyle
2017-09-26
Kyle
请教下每年费用化是什么意思？
- 学未来:
  百度资本性支出，长期待摊费用
会飞的鱼儿
2017-09-27
会飞的鱼儿
你的文章我收藏了
会飞的鱼儿
2017-09-27
会飞的鱼儿
博乐实未来怎么看兄弟

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