Has any company’s first commercial product ever made a more heroic debut? Launched in 2010 as $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ Therapeutics to harness the potential of messenger ribonucleic acid ($Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ ) for the development of new drugs, Moderna had been studying the MERS virus in a two-year collaboration with the National Institutes of Health when reports of a strange new disease began emerging from China. On January 11, 2020, Chinese authorities shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus, and within two days the Moderna/NIH research team had completed the sequence for a COVID-19 vaccine (see page 82). When Moderna finished its accelerated clinical trials by December, its vaccine showed a 94% efficacy rate against COVID-19. By June 2021, Moderna had supplied more than 200 million vaccine doses in the U.S. Moderna accomplished this at a time when, like every other company, it was forced by the pandemic to shift to a distributed workforce that grew from 800 at the end of 2019 to more than 1,300 by the end of 2020. Remote work, the company learned during its epic 2020 sprint, offered unexpected benefits for its innovators—access to leadership, a more level playing field for introverts, and an expanded talent pool due to the elimination of geographic limitations.
My view it will be really high revenue numbers and the earnings will be small with a ton of weird write offs. I also don't think anything in the pipeline will have any meaningful revenue numbers other than the Covid Vaccine. The RSV vaccine and CMV vaccines are very small markets. One was a virus associated with HIV back when I was working in the 1990s and RSV has a few vaccine candidates for trials that are promising. The RSV will be like Shingrix in older adults and the very young could benefit. Neither one is a major market with one vaccine candidate will take up to 5 years to get this close to marketable. Let's see if the bottom line has a lot of write offs. This is all a guess, I have spent decades in health care watching drugs fail Phase III and Phase IV trials. The Covid vaccine came about from over 30 years of HIV vaccine research. The Cancer vaccines have been tried on specific cancers for decades with very little useful candidates. Dr. Afeyan has been doing research in these areas for decades with very little to show for it. But that's what I thought about the $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ spike protein research. Oops Dr Afeyan worked for decades and never gave up and finally hit a home run.
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