$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $快手-W(01024)$ $虎牙(HUYA)$ $斗鱼(DOYU)$
Let's go through the charts of this sector of stocks before we go into my read of the current situation:-
To take a look at the charts above, I notice that Bilibili moved up from around 45 USD in November 2021 to around 157 USD (price peak back around Feb 2021). This represents close to around 3.5 times (I did not use calculator to compute the figure though). Tencent moved up from 550 HKD in November 2020 to around 775 HKD in February 2021, which is around 40 to 50% increase. As for Douyu, it moved from around 14 USD in November 2020 to around 20 USD in February 2021, which was around 40% increase from its price in November 2020.
As for Huya, it moved from around 20 USD in November 2020 to around 36 USD in February 2020. This is around 80% increase from its price in November 2020. As for Kuaishou Tech, which was listed this year, it happened to IPO at the peak (around February 2020) and hence its price had been exhibiting a downtrend. Its current price of around 80 HKD is around 20% of the peak in February 2021.
My analysis of Kuaishou tech is there is really not much support to talk about it and I am not surprised that it can fall by another 20% easily. As for Tencent, its next support is around 360 to 380 HKD and I would simply not rush into it now. Tencent's last traded price is around 470 HKD. As for Bilibili, it has since breached its support of around 80 USD and is currently trading around 74 USD. With its price now, there remains another downleg possibility to bring the price to around 50 to 60 USD. For Douyu, I really have not much view of its price movement since it is exhibiting a downtrend and its price structure is relatively weak. Its price now of around 3.4 USD is around 20% of its November 2020 price whereas Huya's price of 10.1 USD is around 50% below its November price of around 20 USD.
Considering Douyu as a weaker competitor as compared to Huya, it may even go down to around 2.8 USD if its earnings really disappointed all in the coming week. However, for Huya, its price now of around 10.1 USD is around 50% below the November 2020 price and may find support at around 8 USD. The truth is its price movement is really affected by market sentiment on chinese regulations as well as the market concerns over gaming business in China. This makes the pricing of it really difficult. However, I do not intend to rotate out of my Huya's position and do think the support at 8 USD should be relatively strong. But who can say for sure? I look forward to review Huya's coming 2Q2021 results as well as its earning guidance.
Long story short, there is really no rush for me to acquire Bilibili and Kuaishou Tech shares. Their price structure and relative valuation as compared to Huya make them even at greater risks of falling even more. I do not anticipate that Bilibili and Kuaishou Tech's earnings to be any good in coming 2Q2021 whereas I do have some positive anticipation of that of Huya but even good results may not help in market sentiment. But if I originally have not accumulated any positions in Huya, I would think accumulating a position at 8 USD if it ever happens may serve me well. But its abit too bad that my acquisition of Huya with an average cost, which is around 20% below the price in November 2020 but still pretty higher than the current price, which is another support being at 10 USD. Another support is 8 USD.
I would steer clear of Douyu, which is truly weak in terms of price structure and its business. For Tencent, I dont think there is a need to rush into it unless it hits back around 360 HKD.
As always, I need to remind readers that I am a long term investor for company's shares and a trader for index/ futures/ commodities. The above should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.
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