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高盛和瑞信唱高美股，大摩狠狠泼冷水

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Wilson为首的策略师们写道:“我们认为，在许多行业和整体指数水平上，对明年收益的普遍预期都包含了不切实际的利润率假设。”\n摩根士丹利表示，每股收益修正幅度从未如此之高，而该幅度衡量的是卖方上调或下调每股收益预期与总估值变化之间的差异。\nWilson称:...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/531507.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/531507.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158129472","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛和瑞信最近提高了标普500指数的目标值，并相应上调了收益预期，但摩根士丹利却发出了谨慎的警告。\n以Michael J. Wilson为首的策略师们写道:“我们认为，在许多行业和整体指数水平上，对明年收益的普遍预期都包含了不切实际的利润率假设。”\n摩根士丹利表示，每股收益修正幅度从未如此之高，而该幅度衡量的是卖方上调或下调每股收益预期与总估值变化之间的差异。\nWilson称:“我们认为受影响较小的领域包括医疗保健、大宗商品、公用事业和金融。相对于历史数据，这些行业对利润率的假设也没有那么极端，这也是我们青睐这种防御性和利率敏感性的杠铃投资的另一个原因。”\nWilson补充道:“另一方面，市场共识目前普遍预测工业股、非必需消费品和科技类股，这些板块今年的利润率将创纪录，明年将比历史最高水平高出10-15%。在成本压力不断上升的情况下，这似乎极不可能。考虑到低劳动密集度和对供应链的依赖程度较低(半导体除外)，对明年科技股利润率的预期在某种程度上比非必需消费品股和工业股更可信。”\nWilson指出，如果将公司税提高25%，标普500指数的净利润率将减少约100个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/896761572"}