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2021-08-06

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The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive

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A new all-time closing high was registered ","content":"The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199377263","content_text":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&P chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n            Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/893024366"}