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2021-09-13
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Apple: Why A 2% Hit Matters
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":888774870,"tweetId":"888774870","gmtCreate":1631534800890,"gmtModify":1632807780671,"author":{"id":3581295915321286,"idStr":"3581295915321286","authorId":3581295915321286,"authorIdStr":"3581295915321286","name":"DragonLee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888774870","repostId":1145947567,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145947567","pubTimestamp":1631526805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145947567?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 17:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Why A 2% Hit Matters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145947567","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple lost the battle with Epic Systems over developers' ability to direct customers to ext","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple lost the battle with Epic Systems over developers' ability to direct customers to external payment systems.</li>\n <li>Influential Apple analyst Katy Huberty had already estimated an EPS impact of up to 2% from just allowing the top 20 apps to avoid commission fees.</li>\n <li>The stock was already priced for perfection and another hit to an already forecast meager growth leaves Apple with limited to no growth for years.</li>\n <li>Apple will continue struggling to rally beyond $150 with the stock trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ed40710a80f78dd7a69c212f70ef00\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKart/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) won most of their legal case with Epic Games based on the ruling announced on September 10, but the tech giant lost the ultimate battle. The stock remains priced for perfection while the company continues to have growth paths chipped away from the business. My investment thesis continues to remain Bearish on the stock up around $150.</p>\n<p><b>All About Payments</b></p>\n<p>In the past year, Apple had already made several shifts in payment terms with developers. The tech giant reduced App Store fees for small developers and recently allowed several reader apps to offer links to external payments options to avoid the 15% or 30% fees paid to Apple.</p>\n<p>On Friday, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez-Rogers ruled that Apple must allow app developers the ability to direct customers to alternative payment methods outside of the App Store. Apple won the rest of their case blocking Fortnite from regaining access to the App Store and ruling the tech giant wasn't using monopolistic powers.</p>\n<p>The CEO of Epic Games took to Twitter to suggest this ruling doesn't solve the problem as gamers have to go to outside sources in order to register and make payments. The process might work for <b>Netflix</b>(NFLX) and <b>Spotify</b>(SPOT) offering monthly subscriptions and services a user might want to use outside of Apple devices, but gaming companies are far different mostly requiring in-app purchases at random times. Tim Sweeney made it clear Epic Games needs access to in-app payment methods provided by the app developer or gamers are likely to continue using Apple for payments.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634a06a5a851f4867e1a7aba3bfdbdac\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"768\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Regardless, the U.S. District Court ruling opens up the door for companies to start bypassing the fees paid to Apple. A lot of big questions exist on whether consumers will actually utilize these external payment options, or if the tech giant will end up charging app developers fees for access to the App Store.</p>\n<p><b>2% Hit</b></p>\n<p>So much is unknown about the actual financial impact of this ruling other than just about every app developer wants to avoid the up to 30% fees these companies pay to both Apple and <b>Google</b>(GOOG) (GOOGL) for access to their app stores. Star Apple analyst Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley had already suggested the company faced limited risk of only up to a 2% hit to earnings from the previous move to allow some of the top apps to offer links to external payment systems.</p>\n<p>Katy released the following analysis a couple of days prior to the judge ruling to force Apple to officially open up the payment system to all apps:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We view the top 10 or so apps as those that are most likely to have the scale, brand, marketing budget, and customer loyalty to absorb the friction of circumventing the App Store payments platform. Assuming a worst case scenario in which Apple stopped collecting economics from all of the top 20 reader apps translates to downside risk of 4% of Services revenue, 1% of total company revenue, and about 2% of FY22 EPS forecast.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Why the move ultimately matters is because the App Store generates up to $22 billion in annual revenues with an estimated gross margin of close to 80% according to analysis used by Epic Games. Everyone knows the Services business is what will provide the growth path for Apple from the recurring revenue streams, but this business is now taking a slight hit.</p>\n<p>A 1% hit to total revenues is over $3 billion, or what amounts to 4% of Services revenues up at $70 billion this year. The company will be fine, but the stock will suffer.</p>\n<p>Before this ruling hit the wires and most analysts had even updated numbers from the \"reader\" app decision, Apple was only forecast to generate annual EPS growth in the 1% to 6% range over the next 4 years. Analysts already forecast limited EPS growth and any hit to this growth rate further reduces the growth to next to nothing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15ea017715082a5bf3b0fe6351de2680\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SA earnings estimates</span></p>\n<p>The problem is that the stock still trades at 26x those uncut FY22 EPS estimates of $5.84. Stocks hardly trade at more than 2x the growth rate and Apple would need over 13% EPS growth annually to warrant such a premium valuation multiple.</p>\n<p>If the new EPS impact trumps the estimates of the Morgan Stanley analyst due to the expanded scope of developers now gaining access to external payment options, the tech giant might not even generate earnings growth in the next couple of years. Investors are hardly likely to continue paying up for the stock under such a scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The key investor takeaway is that Apple has a bright future. The company will continue generating profits with operating cash flows topping $100 billion annually, but the tech giant will struggle to generate the growth needed to warrant the current stock price. The 2% hit to earnings might not seem meaningful, but the amount is very harmful to a stock priced for perfection.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Why A 2% Hit Matters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Why A 2% Hit Matters\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-13 17:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454765-apple-stock-2-percent-hit-earnings-matters><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple lost the battle with Epic Systems over developers' ability to direct customers to external payment systems.\nInfluential Apple analyst Katy Huberty had already estimated an EPS impact of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454765-apple-stock-2-percent-hit-earnings-matters\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454765-apple-stock-2-percent-hit-earnings-matters","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145947567","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple lost the battle with Epic Systems over developers' ability to direct customers to external payment systems.\nInfluential Apple analyst Katy Huberty had already estimated an EPS impact of up to 2% from just allowing the top 20 apps to avoid commission fees.\nThe stock was already priced for perfection and another hit to an already forecast meager growth leaves Apple with limited to no growth for years.\nApple will continue struggling to rally beyond $150 with the stock trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates.\n\nDKart/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL) won most of their legal case with Epic Games based on the ruling announced on September 10, but the tech giant lost the ultimate battle. The stock remains priced for perfection while the company continues to have growth paths chipped away from the business. My investment thesis continues to remain Bearish on the stock up around $150.\nAll About Payments\nIn the past year, Apple had already made several shifts in payment terms with developers. The tech giant reduced App Store fees for small developers and recently allowed several reader apps to offer links to external payments options to avoid the 15% or 30% fees paid to Apple.\nOn Friday, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez-Rogers ruled that Apple must allow app developers the ability to direct customers to alternative payment methods outside of the App Store. Apple won the rest of their case blocking Fortnite from regaining access to the App Store and ruling the tech giant wasn't using monopolistic powers.\nThe CEO of Epic Games took to Twitter to suggest this ruling doesn't solve the problem as gamers have to go to outside sources in order to register and make payments. The process might work for Netflix(NFLX) and Spotify(SPOT) offering monthly subscriptions and services a user might want to use outside of Apple devices, but gaming companies are far different mostly requiring in-app purchases at random times. Tim Sweeney made it clear Epic Games needs access to in-app payment methods provided by the app developer or gamers are likely to continue using Apple for payments.\n\nRegardless, the U.S. District Court ruling opens up the door for companies to start bypassing the fees paid to Apple. A lot of big questions exist on whether consumers will actually utilize these external payment options, or if the tech giant will end up charging app developers fees for access to the App Store.\n2% Hit\nSo much is unknown about the actual financial impact of this ruling other than just about every app developer wants to avoid the up to 30% fees these companies pay to both Apple and Google(GOOG) (GOOGL) for access to their app stores. Star Apple analyst Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley had already suggested the company faced limited risk of only up to a 2% hit to earnings from the previous move to allow some of the top apps to offer links to external payment systems.\nKaty released the following analysis a couple of days prior to the judge ruling to force Apple to officially open up the payment system to all apps:\n\n We view the top 10 or so apps as those that are most likely to have the scale, brand, marketing budget, and customer loyalty to absorb the friction of circumventing the App Store payments platform. Assuming a worst case scenario in which Apple stopped collecting economics from all of the top 20 reader apps translates to downside risk of 4% of Services revenue, 1% of total company revenue, and about 2% of FY22 EPS forecast.\n\nWhy the move ultimately matters is because the App Store generates up to $22 billion in annual revenues with an estimated gross margin of close to 80% according to analysis used by Epic Games. Everyone knows the Services business is what will provide the growth path for Apple from the recurring revenue streams, but this business is now taking a slight hit.\nA 1% hit to total revenues is over $3 billion, or what amounts to 4% of Services revenues up at $70 billion this year. The company will be fine, but the stock will suffer.\nBefore this ruling hit the wires and most analysts had even updated numbers from the \"reader\" app decision, Apple was only forecast to generate annual EPS growth in the 1% to 6% range over the next 4 years. Analysts already forecast limited EPS growth and any hit to this growth rate further reduces the growth to next to nothing.\nSource: SA earnings estimates\nThe problem is that the stock still trades at 26x those uncut FY22 EPS estimates of $5.84. Stocks hardly trade at more than 2x the growth rate and Apple would need over 13% EPS growth annually to warrant such a premium valuation multiple.\nIf the new EPS impact trumps the estimates of the Morgan Stanley analyst due to the expanded scope of developers now gaining access to external payment options, the tech giant might not even generate earnings growth in the next couple of years. Investors are hardly likely to continue paying up for the stock under such a scenario.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Apple has a bright future. The company will continue generating profits with operating cash flows topping $100 billion annually, but the tech giant will struggle to generate the growth needed to warrant the current stock price. The 2% hit to earnings might not seem meaningful, but the amount is very harmful to a stock priced for perfection.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/888774870"}
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