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2021-09-20
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Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":887757071,"tweetId":"887757071","gmtCreate":1632102206193,"gmtModify":1632802839394,"author":{"id":3579340169444210,"idStr":"3579340169444210","authorId":3579340169444210,"authorIdStr":"3579340169444210","name":"Tygress","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833a8ce5ec739350942784874a15f01","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":24,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887757071","repostId":1109134681,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109134681","pubTimestamp":1632101677,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109134681?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109134681","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GOOG is pulling back.</li>\n <li>I see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.</li>\n <li>The fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d4441cfb915dc5aa9a0e9e8ce1f215\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Back in June, I said search legend <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a buy before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.</p>\n<p>Stocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eebf692d507eedac08fd13298641399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>First, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.</p>\n<p>We can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.</p>\n<p>I said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.</p>\n<p>The accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.</p>\n<p>Momentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.</p>\n<p>Finally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Alphabet is still winning</b></p>\n<p>I laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.</p>\n<p>Alphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.</p>\n<p>Alphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.</p>\n<p>Alphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s a<i>very</i>nice boat to be in.</p>\n<p>The company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet that<i>aren’t</i>winners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37002f4add35ef73fb8d1a36c7b661f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>We can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has been<i>enormous</i>. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.</p>\n<p>How is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235c19723a62ea20f74e0cb5d16f2f51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>We can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.</p>\n<p>If I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Let’s value Alphabet stock</b></p>\n<p>Now, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a67e6104c6d1ff35dba38d9c29f11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>We can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.</p>\n<p>Speaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1e36c6e62741bfe00fffac533d904\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Shares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-20 09:34 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109134681","content_text":"Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nBack in June, I said search legend Alphabet(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a buy before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.\nStocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.\nWe can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.\nI said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.\nThe accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.\nMomentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.\nFinally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.\nAlphabet is still winning\nI laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.\nAlphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.\nAlphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.\nAlphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s averynice boat to be in.\nThe company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet thataren’twinners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.\nNow, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has beenenormous. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.\nHow is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.\nIf I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.\nLet’s value Alphabet stock\nNow, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.\nSpeaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.\nSource: TIKR.com\nShares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.\nThe bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/887757071"}
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