OldMan69
2021-09-10
To the moon!
Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":883262336,"tweetId":"883262336","gmtCreate":1631245278925,"gmtModify":1631890456296,"author":{"id":3575324916676606,"idStr":"3575324916676606","authorId":3575324916676606,"authorIdStr":"3575324916676606","name":"OldMan69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a241efdf936287f65139662129e8dae4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>To the moon!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>To the moon!</p></body></html>","text":"To the moon!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883262336","repostId":1109335825,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109335825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631244962,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109335825?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109335825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two mode","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li>\n <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li>\n <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li>\n <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li>\n <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p>\n<p>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube\n</blockquote>\n<p>In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p>\n<p>As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p>\n<p><b>Base Case Scenario</b></p>\n<p>In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p>\n<p>I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p>\n<p>In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p>\n<p>I assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p>\n<p>With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p><b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p>\n<p>Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p>\n<p>Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus\n</blockquote>\n<p>With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p>\n<p>Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p>\n<p>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p>\n<p><b>R&D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p>\n<p>XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignificant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 11:36 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.\nThe company’s cars come ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109335825","content_text":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.\nXPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.\nI designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.\n\nSimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images\nWith billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.\nBusiness: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:\nSource: Company’s Website\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:\n\n The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube\n\nIn my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:\n\n Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nFinancial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash\nIn June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:\nSource: 10-Q\nAs of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:\nSource: 10-Q\nBase Case Scenario\nIn my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nSource: XPILOT - YouTube\nI would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.\nIn my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:\nSource: YCharts\nI also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:\nSource: YCharts\nMy cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nI assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:\nSource: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com\nWith a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOptimistic Case Scenario\nUnder my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.\nBesides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:\n\n We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nWith these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nUnder this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nR&D Activities May Not Be Successful\nIn my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.\nAutonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents\nXPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.\nConclusion\nXPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/883262336"}
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