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2021-09-08

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Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":880461255,"tweetId":"880461255","gmtCreate":1631073046277,"gmtModify":1631891497761,"author":{"id":3586392338558856,"idStr":"3586392338558856","authorId":3586392338558856,"authorIdStr":"3586392338558856","name":"Jokhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d189ae3ec01747be0bd951c14c32cb94","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[Smile]&nbsp; </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[Smile]&nbsp; </body></html>","text":"[Smile]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880461255","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>\n <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>\n <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>\n <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</td>\n <td>2016</td>\n <td>2017</td>\n <td>2018</td>\n <td>2019</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021F</td>\n <td>2022F</td>\n <td>2023F</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</td>\n <td>21,453</td>\n <td>22,904</td>\n <td>23,560</td>\n <td>24,780</td>\n <td>23,778</td>\n <td>25,490</td>\n <td>27,172</td>\n <td>28,395</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>2.6%</td>\n <td>6.8%</td>\n <td>2.9%</td>\n <td>5.2%</td>\n <td>-4.0%</td>\n <td>7.20%</td>\n <td>6.60%</td>\n <td>4.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</td>\n <td>1,845</td>\n <td>2,382</td>\n <td>2,982</td>\n <td>3,354</td>\n <td>4,280</td>\n <td>4,716</td>\n <td>5,434</td>\n <td>6,247</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>19.2%</td>\n <td>29.1%</td>\n <td>25.2%</td>\n <td>12.5%</td>\n <td>27.6%</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>15.2%</td>\n <td>15.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Penetration Rate ('c')</td>\n <td>9%</td>\n <td>10%</td>\n <td>12%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</td>\n <td>2016</td>\n <td>2017</td>\n <td>2018</td>\n <td>2019</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021F</td>\n <td>2022F</td>\n <td>2023F</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</td>\n <td>21,453</td>\n <td>22,904</td>\n <td>23,560</td>\n <td>24,780</td>\n <td>23,778</td>\n <td>25,490</td>\n <td>27,172</td>\n <td>28,395</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>2.6%</td>\n <td>6.8%</td>\n <td>2.9%</td>\n <td>5.2%</td>\n <td>-4.0%</td>\n <td>7.20%</td>\n <td>6.60%</td>\n <td>4.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</td>\n <td>1,845</td>\n <td>2,382</td>\n <td>2,982</td>\n <td>3,354</td>\n <td>4,280</td>\n <td>4,716</td>\n <td>5,434</td>\n <td>6,247</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>19.2%</td>\n <td>29.1%</td>\n <td>25.2%</td>\n <td>12.5%</td>\n <td>27.6%</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>15.2%</td>\n <td>15.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Penetration Rate ('c')</td>\n <td>9%</td>\n <td>10%</td>\n <td>12%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>20.9%</td>\n <td>17.3%</td>\n <td>11.5%</td>\n <td>32.4%</td>\n <td>2.8%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>10.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</td>\n <td>91.43</td>\n <td>108.35</td>\n <td>122.99</td>\n <td>141.25</td>\n <td>197.35</td>\n <td>211.74</td>\n <td>244.02</td>\n <td>280.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>18.5%</td>\n <td>13.5%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>39.7%</td>\n <td>7.3%</td>\n <td>15.2%</td>\n <td>15.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</td>\n <td>5.0%</td>\n <td>4.5%</td>\n <td>4.1%</td>\n <td>4.2%</td>\n <td>4.6%</td>\n <td>4.5%</td>\n <td>4.5%</td>\n <td>4.5%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</td>\n <td>2016</td>\n <td>2017</td>\n <td>2018</td>\n <td>2019</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021F</td>\n <td>2022F</td>\n <td>2023F</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</td>\n <td>1,845</td>\n <td>2,382</td>\n <td>2,982</td>\n <td>3,354</td>\n <td>4,280</td>\n <td>4,716</td>\n <td>5,434</td>\n <td>6,247</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>19.2%</td>\n <td>29.1%</td>\n <td>25.2%</td>\n <td>12.5%</td>\n <td>27.6%</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>15.2%</td>\n <td>15.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</td>\n <td>5.6%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n <td>5.4%</td>\n <td>6.0%</td>\n <td>6.9%</td>\n <td>7.5%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>8.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n <td>-2%</td>\n <td>-2%</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>9%</td>\n <td>9%</td>\n <td>9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</td>\n <td>103</td>\n <td>130</td>\n <td>160</td>\n <td>200</td>\n <td>295</td>\n <td>353</td>\n <td>443</td>\n <td>553</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>26.2%</td>\n <td>23.1%</td>\n <td>25.0%</td>\n <td>47.5%</td>\n <td>19.8%</td>\n <td>25.3%</td>\n <td>25.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</td>\n <td>22.3%</td>\n <td>24.5%</td>\n <td>26.7%</td>\n <td>26.9%</td>\n <td>27.3%</td>\n <td>27.6%</td>\n <td>27.8%</td>\n <td>28.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>9.9%</td>\n <td>9.0%</td>\n <td>0.6%</td>\n <td>1.5%</td>\n <td>1.0%</td>\n <td>1.0%</td>\n <td>1.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</td>\n <td>22.99</td>\n <td>31.88</td>\n <td>42.75</td>\n <td>53.76</td>\n <td>80.46</td>\n <td>97.37</td>\n <td>123.25</td>\n <td>155.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>38.7%</td>\n <td>34.1%</td>\n <td>25.8%</td>\n <td>49.7%</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>26.6%</td>\n <td>26.3%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AWS Forecasts</td>\n <td>2018</td>\n <td>2019</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021F</td>\n <td>2022F</td>\n <td>2023F</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AWS Market Share</td>\n <td>32.6%</td>\n <td>32.3%</td>\n <td>31.8%</td>\n <td>31.2%</td>\n <td>31.0%</td>\n <td>30.7%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</td>\n <td>25.66</td>\n <td>35.03</td>\n <td>45.37</td>\n <td>54.58</td>\n <td>66.81</td>\n <td>81.52</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>47.0%</td>\n <td>36.5%</td>\n <td>29.5%</td>\n <td>20.3%</td>\n <td>22.4%</td>\n <td>22.0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>EV/EBITDA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon</td>\n <td>28.57x</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Alibaba (BABA)</td>\n <td>21.14x</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Microsoft</td>\n <td>25.89x</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Google</td>\n <td>22.46x</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>24.52x</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</td>\n <td>2018</td>\n <td>2019</td>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>2021F</td>\n <td>2022F</td>\n <td>2023F</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Online stores</td>\n <td>122.99</td>\n <td>141.25</td>\n <td>197.35</td>\n <td>211.74</td>\n <td>244.02</td>\n <td>280.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>13.5%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>39.7%</td>\n <td>7.3%</td>\n <td>15.2%</td>\n <td>15.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Physical stores</td>\n <td>17.22</td>\n <td>17.19</td>\n <td>16.23</td>\n <td>17.40</td>\n <td>18.55</td>\n <td>19.38</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>196.9%</td>\n <td>-0.2%</td>\n <td>-5.6%</td>\n <td>7.20%</td>\n <td>6.60%</td>\n <td>4.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Retail third-party seller services</td>\n <td>42.75</td>\n <td>53.76</td>\n <td>80.46</td>\n <td>97.37</td>\n <td>123.25</td>\n <td>155.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>34.1%</td>\n <td>25.8%</td>\n <td>49.7%</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>26.6%</td>\n <td>26.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Subscription services</td>\n <td>14.17</td>\n <td>19.21</td>\n <td>25.21</td>\n <td>34.67</td>\n <td>47.68</td>\n <td>65.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>45.8%</td>\n <td>35.6%</td>\n <td>31.2%</td>\n <td>37.5%</td>\n <td>37.5%</td>\n <td>37.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>25.66</td>\n <td>35.03</td>\n <td>45.37</td>\n <td>54.58</td>\n <td>66.81</td>\n <td>81.52</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>47.0%</td>\n <td>36.5%</td>\n <td>29.5%</td>\n <td>20.3%</td>\n <td>22.4%</td>\n <td>22.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Other</td>\n <td>10.11</td>\n <td>14.09</td>\n <td>21.45</td>\n <td>31.27</td>\n <td>45.60</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Growth %</td>\n <td>117.4%</td>\n <td>39.4%</td>\n <td>52.2%</td>\n <td>45.8%</td>\n <td>45.8%</td>\n <td>45.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>232.9</td>\n <td>280.53</td>\n <td>386.07</td>\n <td>447.0</td>\n <td>545.9</td>\n <td>669.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total Growth %</td>\n <td>30.9%</td>\n <td>20.5%</td>\n <td>37.6%</td>\n <td>15.8%</td>\n <td>22.1%</td>\n <td>22.6%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880461255"}