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@启程巴芒阁：海底捞复盘-估值篇海底捞现在估值处于什么水平？估值高还是低跌倒20，再往下跌，还能跌多少呢，其实很难有人说的准，现在看动态市盈率还是77倍，还是很高。但是如果海底捞停止这种蒙眼扩张，进入有序扩张，同时疫情得到控制，并结束疫情，恢复正常生活状态，海底捞翻台率恢复到5，净资产收益率恢复到10%，如果按今年上半年营收200亿，全年营收400亿，全年利润40亿的话，现在市盈率只有25倍，这样的话还算合理。如果市值下跌到600亿-800亿，市盈率到15-20倍，显然是一个很低的估值。现在管理层已经开始改变战略，开始认错，开始改错，这是一个积极的信号。疫情什么时候能过去，现在还是个未知数，在国内大部分人都接种疫苗的情况下，从国庆节之后，疫情又开始蔓延，有点死灰复燃的感觉，同时国外疫情还处于高位，没有显著下级的情况下，明年，后年，还不好说。所以受困于外部环境，怎么积极应对，考验管理智慧的时候到了。

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