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2021-11-22
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Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872489987,"tweetId":"872489987","gmtCreate":1637559846842,"gmtModify":1637559846911,"author":{"id":4092561976613440,"idStr":"4092561976613440","authorId":4092561976613440,"authorIdStr":"4092561976613440","name":"Ernestgoh0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26efe2a26972b528df18cc8a945287d5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow</p></body></html>","text":"Wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872489987","repostId":1159890392,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159890392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637559348,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159890392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159890392","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.</li>\n <li>Adobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.</li>\n <li>We discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.</li>\n <li>We also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.</p>\n<p>We discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.</p>\n<p>We also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.</p>\n<p><b>ADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c95ae8c533f02f2af083ceee62bf9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p>\n<p>ADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bfbaccbc2e6a4f815d081612501c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p>\n<p>As long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.</p>\n<p><b>Both are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517349e87627e8e2f390deb448800ef2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>There's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2fc577d2f36a621eaa5eb693e3bcf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e97ef4419da68ba36792ec4c26245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Computer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft</span></p>\n<p>For investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.</p>\n<p>The company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.</p>\n<p><b>World-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys</span></p>\n<p>Two top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.</p>\n<p>Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542f034da9bbcde81eddf509fbade46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>But, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.</p>\n<p><b>So, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2c34259c409fb5afc7b9770deb419a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a409f2afdd0fab713f5748be78a261a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Adobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.</p>\n<p>In contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570d068f004efa2de56f66ce506c723c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adae720194f5c03c18c5ac7b6d91e590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>ADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.</p>\n<p>MSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 13:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.\nAdobe continues to be the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159890392","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.\nAdobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.\nWe discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.\nWe also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.\n\nJean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.\nOn the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.\nWe discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.\nWe also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.\nADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).\nADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).\nAs long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.\nOn the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.\nTherefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.\nBoth are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable\nMicrosoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThere's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.\nAdobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nComputer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft\nFor investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.\nThe company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.\nWorld-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys\nTwo top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.\nAdobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.\nAdobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBut, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.\nSo, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?\nAdobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nMicrosoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAdobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.\nIn contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.\nMSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.\nMSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.\nNevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872489987"}
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