I think that this is worse news than a lot of commentators here are giving credit. There are a lot of comments I’m reading that cynically declare that Morgan Stanley are just looking to pick up cheap shares (which I would think might get them a call from the SEC given that they have put out a fair price at $247) and others that laughingly blow off competition as something that of course has always been out there. This reminds me of what Morgan Stanley did to Micron Technology on August 12th when they expressed concern about falling chip prices. Since that time, Micron shares have experienced strong headwinds and are lagging other semi-conductor companies.
The slight difference I see here, which doesn’t make the road any easier for CRWD is that in this case, Morgan Stanley isn’t the first brokerage house to downgrade. On Nov. 1st, BTIG came out with similar concerns to Morgan Stanley. When as big a firm as Morgan Stanley comes out and effectively affirm the view of a smaller firm like BTIG, it bites a lot harder than the first bit of bad news. Furthermore, the issue raise is easy to digest. What they are saying is that other companies in the industry are getting better at cybersecurity and it is becoming harder for Crowdstrike to procure business with premium pricing to the degree to which they have traditionally enjoyed. They are not saying that Crowdstrike is any worse at what they are doing. They are saying that others are closing the service gap as they gain knowledge and experience and can put pressure on market prices by doing the job well enough for say 10% less.
I expect CRWD’s share price to rise from here but I think this Morgan Stanley downgrade will act as a drag.
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